Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night @ Geelong

The Game Plan for Geelong – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)

Best Bets ($30 win)

Waikare Aviator (Race 2 No.2) $6

This guy did a lot of his early racing in Victoria under standing-start conditions and to be blunt he never fired away from the tapes. In saying that he was a generally safe, albeit slow beginner, and when he did make any errors he was back down pretty quickly. While I’d much prefer him burning off the arm, he is coming off a 13-metre defeat in a Group 1 race. This is a serious class drop and his form prior around Zharis Idol in Adelaide is good enough for today’s race so expect him to be hard to beat at nice odds.

My Zach Bromac (Race 4 No.1) $3

I have plenty of time for this guy and despite being beaten after having a fairly soft run in front last time; I can see him returning to the winners stall today. Not only is Baccarat a really nice horse who rolled him, his form in general includes a good win at Bendigo two starts back and a couple of unlucky runs in town earlier in his preparation. Whether he has the speed to lead, or takes a trail, he should be very hard to hold out at the finish.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)

Indulgent (Race 5 No.6) $10

After pulling himself into the ground mid-race last time, this gelding was OK when finishing just on 14 metres from Ourcrowninn and co at Ballarat. Since then he has trialled pretty well for new trainer David Miles and in a pretty even race with some good early speed, I can see him getting back and charging late.

The Money Races

Race 1 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)

Jetshawjoe (2) was much better last time and should enjoy a similar run in the first couple from his good barrier today. Coming through the same race I was happy with the effort of Cowboy Cadillac (6) when parking and I think he is working up to a win. For mine they are the clear winning chances however it’s tough for the minors so we will play a little wider in a single trifecta.

2,6/2,6,10/1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10. $50 gets 208.33%

Race 6 ($45 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)

Although well beaten, Ideal Majority (5) didn’t have the best of luck behind Messini in a Vicbred Super series final last time and he did win emphatically at the start prior so while I think he is the horse to beat, we will also play a saver trifectas with Must Be Nice (7) the key danger to get the job done and while the dividend is unlikely to be exorbitant, I think we can turn a profit.

5/6/1,3. $30 gets 1500%

6/5/1,3. $20 gets 1000%

Quaddies (x5 worth $110)

1/1,2,6/5/6. $21 gets 800%

1/1,2,6/5/2,4,7,10.  $24 gets 200%

1/1,2,6/6/2,4,6,7,10. $22.50 gets 150%

2,3,4/1,2,6/5/2,4,6,7,10. $22.50 gets 50%

2,3,4/1,2,6/6/2,4,6,7,10. $20 gets 44.44%

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