Friday, July 25, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Tabcorp Park Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s very rare in recent times to have a weekend meeting @ Vic Harness HQ that’s NOT a dead-set, bona fide feature racing card, but that’s what we have tonight, with only the Lightfoot Laurels @ Group3 level qualifying as a ‘black-type’ event. Often these more standard programmes are even better for punting than the feature nights but this evening is tricky and should probably better suit those who like to search for value because I don’t think there’s one stone cold moral across the nine-race card. To that end I’m taking only the 1 Best bet @ Black Figure odds along with two Money Races and a good lash @ both the Early & the Normal Quads.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Blitzthemcalder (Race 1 no. 7) $2.50
Many punters will be rolling their eyes at seeing this bloke marked favourite and Best Bet in today’s Herald Sun given his extraordinary record of getting beaten when those circumstances prevail. The reasons why I’m happy to go back to the well are that I’m hoping some of his recent misdemeanours & his poor draw will help us get a better price than we are entitled to along with the fact that every horse drawn inside should be happy to hand him the lead if Puppet progresses forward and gets aggressive at the start.

The Money Races
Race 4 (Flexi First 4’s for $60)
On the score of class and conditions of this race I really think Quite A Moment (1) and Vics Cheval (5) should fight this out. It is a standing start affair however so things can go wrong and if they do Paris Pepperell (2) and Shes An Image (7) (who is way too short in TABs fixed odds market for mine) look the other key runners engaged.

1,5/ 1,5/ 2,7/ 2,3,6,7. $20 gets 250%
1,5/ 2,7/ 1,2,5,7/ 1,2,3,5,6,7. $40 gets 125%

Race 5 (Flexi Trifectas for $90)
Having three Emma Stewart-trained runners occupying the first four barriers confuses this race to some degree, as does the inclusion of Kiwi recruit Maximan (2) but I’m still bullish that the class will prevail here and the four big guns will dominate with Johnny Quid (3) the only horse likely to stop them comprising the Trifecta due to his very good early speed.

1,2,4,11/ 1,2,4,11/ 1,2,3,4,11. $72 gets 200%
1,2,4,11/ 1,2,4,11/ 5,6,8. $18 gets 50%

The EARLY Quads (x4 for $150)
7/ 6,10/ 1,2,5,6,7/ 1,5. $40 gets 200%
7/ 3,5,9,11/ 1,2,5,6,7/ 1,5. $20 gets 50%
6,9,12/ 6,10/ 1,2,5,6,7/ 1,5. $60 gets 100%
6,9,12/ 3,5,9,11/ 1,2,5,6,7/ 1,5. $30 gets 25%

The Quads (x2 for $150)
1,2,4,11/ 1,5,8,10/ 1,2,5,6,9/ 2,9,11. $120 gets 50%
1,2,4,11/ 4,6,9/ 1,2,5,6,9/ 2,9,11. $30 gets 12.5%

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Quarter– Teo Enteo: 26.62ecs
Fastest Last Half – Teo Enteo: 54.53secs
Fastest Last Mile – La Machane: 1:54.00

Sectional Superstar
La Machane (Race 7 no.7) – $12
This mare has been flying all preparation long and while she will likely need luck again, it’s impossible to ignore her last mile split just 6 days ago when she smashed the clock in a brilliant 1:54.00.
With plenty of front row pressure engaged, she can file into the running line wherever need be and if she gets the right back in the run home, she will be storming late.

Speed Maps

Race 1
Who Leads?
There is good speed right across the front line here with Rockin Wilma (4) and El Paco (6) both particularly quick beginners when let go at the start, although early toe may not decide the leader here because Blitzthemcalder (7) is a big chance of bullying his way to the front despite not being fast away from the mobile start.
Where will the pressure come from?
If Blitzthemcalder (7) doesn’t lead then he’ll certainly play enforcer as his best chance of winning is to grind his rivals into submission. If he does find the top then the bullying role will almost certainly be left Xanderxav (9) who is also no stranger to racing tough and still coming away with a good result.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Maoris Pocket (12) had to be seen to be believed at this course last time out and looms as a huge threat if his manners hold up well but there aren’t too many others capable of spotting their rivals a big lead and hunting them down tonight.

Race 2
Who Leads?
The primary battle here should come between Doomed (2) and Getya Wings Out (3) with Mark Pitt holding most of the aces on the former horse. If Pitt wants to hold the top it would seem Doomed (2) has the requisite speed to keep that role but there’s every chance he’ll relent to Getya Wings Out (3) given she’s the more talented horse.
Where will the pressure come from?
There are no natural enforcers engaged here, which may make the race for those at the head of affairs. If there is to be some curry it should come Ideal Majority (9) who races best from the front of the field or Must Be Nice (10) who’s probably more likely to set off on a searching three-wide run a fair way from home than make a mid-race move to sit parked in transit.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
My Zach Bromac (5) is the obvious danger if they go hard in transit but Ezee Duzit Lombo (11) also possesses a very sharp turn of foot when the cards all fall her way and she didn’t have a lot of luck in her heat last time out.

Race 3
Who Leads?
This is a funny race where every horse off the front line possesses some gate speed but the lead should land either with Here And Now (2) or Willow Robyn (7). No Tomorrow (1) has the toe to match those two early but races better with a sit and even over the 1720m trip should be happy to take a cosy trail.
Where will the pressure come from?
Mister Smoochy (4) has proven he can hang tough in easier races than this but the true enforcer here is definitely Virginia Lightning (6). She’s pretty unlikely to get the lead here as she did last time out so expect her to sit parked and turn this into a staying test.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
No Tomorrow (1) probably doesn’t qualify as a genuine swooper as he’ll likely race in behind the speed but he will be very threatening with his turn of foot. Lems Cameo (5) was also eye-catching first up from a break and could threaten while Willow Robyn (7) is another that will be rattling home if Kerryn opts to go back rather than forward at the start.

Race 4
Who Leads?
Standing start squaregaiting races are never easy to map and this is no exception but of the front row runners Desert Spur (3) certainly looks the fastest away from the strands. Given the likelihood she’ll hand up to something though, the bigger question is who’ll relieve her of the lead. Quite A Moment (1) is most likely to take up the running but Vics Cheval (5) is also not without some little chance.
Where will the pressure come from?
Vic s Cheval (5) is without doubt the only bully engaged here. Paris Pepperell (2) can also race tough in slightly easier races but Vics Cheval (5) is the one who will dictate this race and decide which way it’s run (so long as she stays in gait throughout).
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Paris Pepperell (2) should sit just off the pace and prove some sort of little threat if the pace is brutal throughout then she can play a role as can Shes An Image (7) or even Purplepeopleater (6) although all would need a heap of luck to win.

Race 5
Who Leads?
The early speed here definitely looks like coming from Emma Stewart-trained stablemates Johnny Quid (3) and Beauty Secret (4) and it only stands to reason that both would have their best chance of winning if the former horse handed up to the latter. Maximan (2) is something of an unknown commodity but he hasn’t shown great early speed back him and probably won’t be hurried out at the start.
Where will the pressure come from?
Maximan (2) has shown a great ability to race tough and just keep coming back home in NZ so it’s certainly expected that once he balances up early, he’ll be rushing forward in hopes of finishing the breeze and dictating proceedings from there.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Ginger Bliss (11) is much better known as a leader but he can steam home in his races and will have to from the unkind grandstand draw. Turnpike Cruiser (6) and Classy Western (5) can also blister home under the right circumstances but this is a really tough assignment for them.

Race 6
Who Leads?
This race boasts a pretty quick front line where every horse can hold their own at the start but Magnificent Art (1) is fast enough to hold all his rivals wide for as long as lance desires. If the pressure is moderate the polemarker may opt to hold the top but it’s probably more likely that he’ll hand the ascendancy to either Goodtime Mike (5) or Wolfpack (6) tonight.
Where will the pressure come from?
No horse here is likely to really force the issue from a pressure perspective but Goodtime Mike (5) is one who might keep them rolling along if he cannot get the lead.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
There are plenty who could have their say late here if the cards all fell their way headed by Road To Rock (10) & Electric Ollie (8).

Race 7
Who Leads?
The crucial early battle will almost certainly come between Born Again Sassy (1) and Exciteusinthecity (2) here as both have more than their fair share of early toe and the winner of this battle will have big bearing on the overall result.
Where will the pressure come from?
Where do we start? The Good Times (5) should roll forward early on before genuine bullies like Asoka (6) and Hall Of Famer (9) pour the pressure on through the middle stages of the race. These are good quality horse but only the strong – or very fortunate – will survive if this race is run the way it appears it will be on paper.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
In one way this race appears a boon for run-on horses but with so much class likely to be at the top end it will still take a big performance to come from well back and win. If it is to happen then La Machane (7) may be the culprit although Born Again Sassy (1) may also get her chance if she takes a trail in transit.

Race 8
Who Leads?
The main fight here should be between Our Femme Fatale (2) who’s not beginning quite as well as she used to these days and natural born leader Illawong Joyful (4). One of the two should find the top and it will probably be the latter, at least early on.
Where will the pressure come from?
Our Femme Fatale (2) is tough enough to sit parked and still come out on top if she doesn’t find the front while Western Gretel (6) is also used to playing bully and using her stamina rather than speed for her successes.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
There are a number of horses who can play a role in the finish from well off the speed here but the two key ones are Glenferrie EJ (9) and Tandias Bromac (11) who look every chance of carting one another into the race.

Race 9
Who Leads?
This is yet another race with an extremely quick front line where Monica My Dear (4), Aldebaran Eastwood (5), Im Anonymiss (6) & Hackashaq (7) can all fly the mobile arm but if push comes to shove either Aldebaran Eastwood (6) or Hackashaq (7) should lead.
Where will the pressure come from?
Once they find their positions its unlikely there’ll be too much mid-race curry although Hackashaq (7) will probably roll along if he doesn’t find the top.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?

In terms of those coming from well back, Bella Cheval (9) probably heads the list of likely dive-bombers although Canadian Dream (8) isn’t without some blowout hope despite the awkward draw.

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