Saturday, November 30, 2013

Good Form Preview - Miracle Mile & Popular Alm FFA Night

Adam Hamilton's Melton Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Much of Australasia’s trotting focus will be on Menangle tonight but there’s also a terrific card at Melton with a heap of genuine betting races and some real value on offer. It’s a good thing I’m not on radio today because it would take quite some time to go through the four Money Races below along with the Quads and the Best Roughies but as it is you only have to take the bets below and hopefully walk away on top!

Best Roughies ($10 x $15)
Earl Of Mot (Race 6 no. 4) $16/$3.60 TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke was one of five horses to break 58 seconds for their last halves in the Chris Howe Trotters Cup last time out and given he looks very likely to lead in a race lacking absolute A-graders (apart from Vulcan (6) and Mister Zion (7) who both have things against them, I think he gets a great chance to win or at least finish on the dais at good odds.

I See Icy Earl (Race 6 no. 8) $16/$3.60 TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
This is the other horse that I’d be happy to back in what I see as a much more open trot that the odds-makers would have you believe. The major things in his favour are the fact that he has better point-to-point speed than anything else engaged (other than Vulcan (7)) at his best and that he has Greg Sugars in the cart. I’m not saying he’s a moral but the $16 is just silly for mine.

Broadways Best (Race 7 no. 7) $16/$3.50 TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
I’ve been saying for quite some time that this superstar mare is better placed in powerful open class races than those against her own sex because she follows brutal speed with ease and can still peel off a super quarter late. The draw is a big imposition for her here but it is a race where there’ll be plenty of mid-race moves and if the speed is true and she gets a cart into the race she’ll be more like a $5 chance than the $16 she is right now.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 3
I have really isolated Mister Rufus (2), Royal Deviate (4) and Stuck In Second (10) as the top trio here with Supersub (6) a rung below and plenty of horse who couldn’t possibly finish on the podium.
2,4,10/ 2,4,10/ 2,4,6,10.  $24 gets 200%
2,4,10/ 2,4,10/ 9,11,12,13. $26 gets 108.33%

Race 7
The scratching of Chancellor Cullen has opened this race right up but I remain confident that Melpark Major (2), Broadways Best (7), Im Corzin Terror (10) and Youranut (12) will dominate proceedings if things pan out to plan.
2,7,10,12 Boxed. $24 gets 100%
2,7,10,12/ 2,7,10,12/ 5,6,8,9. $26 gets 54.17%

Race 8
Habibti (5) would only have to be half wound up to beat this lot tonight so she’s a clear on-top selection while I’m banking that Maori Vacation (8), a horse of untapped ability, will join him on the podium tonight.
5/ 8/ 1,3,4,6,7,9. $30 gets 500%
1/ 2,3,4,6,7,9/ 8. $20 gets 333.33%

Race 9
Catch Your Breath (5) is close to a living moral here given he should find the front and dictate terms from there while Smudge Bromac (7) is the other class factor of the race that should really join him on the podium for sure.
5/ 7/ 1,2,3,4. $32 gets 800%
5/ 1,2,3,4/ 7. $18 gets 450%

The Quads (x3 for $150)
5,7/ 6,9/ 4,6,7,8,10,11/ 2,7,10,12. $96 gets 100%
5,7/ 1,7,8,10/ 4,6,7,8,10,11/ 2,7,10,12. $32 gets 16.33%
4,8,11/ 6,9/ 4,6,7,8,10,11/ 2,7,10,12. $22 gets 15.28%

The Game Plan for Melton with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).
Best Bet ($100 Win)
(Race 10 No.6 Young Modern) $2 Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke did a super job to finish as close as he did after messing up the start at his first run back at Gunbower in the only heat for this final.  To put it simply he meets the same opposition as he did at Gunbower and if he gets away cleanly and does everything right he should be winning.

Best Value ($50 Each Way)
(Race 1 No.6 Future Operator) $7.50 Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy is a tough consistent type who did all the work three wide without cover in his win at Ballarat two back where he defeated the smart Suspicious Behavia. Last start he sat parked throughout and looked the winner in the straight before being swamped late. He will probably end up outside the leader again here and on the strength of his past two runs represents value at $7.50 on an each way basis.
Money Races
Race 9 Flexi First 4’s ($100)
5/ 7/ 2,4/ 2,4 $40 gets 2000%
5/ 7/ 2,4/ 3 $30 gets 1500%
5/ 7/ 3/ 2.4 $15 gets 750%
5/ 2,4/ 7/ 2,3,4 $15 gets 375%
Race 10 Flexi First 4’s ($100)
6/ 2,4/ 2,4/ 1,3 $75 gets 1875%
6/ 2,4/ 1,3/ 2,4 $25 gets 625%
Quads (x2)
5,7/ 1,4,7,8,10,11/ 4,6,7,8,11/ 2,7,8,10,12 $50 gets 16.67%
5,7/ 6,9/ 4,6,7,8,11/ 2,7,8,10,12 $50 gets 50%

The Game Plan for Menangle with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).
Best Bet ($100 Win)
(Race 7 No.10 Abettorpunt) $4.20
This guy has been racing at the peak of his powers this time in. Three runs back he finished a gallant third behind Restrepo and Chanchellor Cullen in the Nyah Cup after a wide run without cover on the last lap, two back he sat three wide the trip and was taking ground off Miracle Mile runner Beautide in the Newcastle Mile, then last start finished just off Smoken Up in the Cordina Sprint. He rises back up to the middle distance here and whilst he hasn’t drawn well he will have plenty of time to work into the race and he looks well placed against the opposition he meets tonight.
Best Value ($25Win/$75Place)
(Race 6 No.2 Tact Hayleys Delight) $8
This mare was the only runner to make up any noticeable ground off the pegs last start in a leader dominated affair. She is drawn much better here and is some hope of crossing to the pegs early and in an open race looks a great each way chance at a good price.   
Money Races
Race 8 Flexi First 4’s ($100)
2/ 1/ 3,5,6/ 3,5,6,8,10 $50 gets 416.67%
2/ 6/ 1/ 3,5,6,8,10 $20 gets 400%
6/ 1,2/ 1,2/ 3,5,6,8,10 $20 gets 200%
6/ 1/ 3,5,6/ 2,3,5,6,8,10 $10 gets 125%
Race 9 Flexi First 4’s ($100)
5,8/ 3,5,8/ 3,5,8/ 4 $60 gets 1500%
5,8/ 3,5,8/ 3,5,8/ 1,11 $30 gets 375%
5,8/ 3,5,8/ 4/ 3,5,8 $10 gets 250%
Quads (x6)
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 10/ 2 $30 gets 375%
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 3,4,5/ 2 $30 gets 125%
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 10/ 6 $15 gets 187.50%
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 3,4,5/ 6 $15 gets 62.50%
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 10/ 1 $5 gets 62.50%
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 3,4,5/ 1 $5 gets 20.83%

Tabcorp Park Melton Trainer Talk – Geoff Webster
Best Chance
Mister Zion (Race 6 no.7) $2.40 TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
“He just overraced last start so hopefully this week he will settle a little better and just work forward from out there.
“He’ll probably end up outside the leader again and he’s going really well at home. Vulcan is the one if he produces the form he showed last year but he hasn’t shown that in New Zealand and my horse is fit and well so I’m quite looking forward to the race.”
Future Operator (Race 1 no.6) $7.50 Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s going quite well and he has found a winnable race but the barrier draw is just against him.”

Kotare Roland (Race 4 no.6) $16 Click here to bet on this horse now
“It’s the same story again with him. I think all weekend we’ve drawn badly but he’s going well without a lot of luck. In that class it’s very hard to win unless you have some.
“He probably needs to be driven with a little bit of luck but I’d like to have a go at a couple of the Country Cups with him just to see where he measures up.”
Paint The Hammer (Race 10 no.2) $3.20 Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a handy little horse and it’s exactly the same field so he’s going to be a reasonable chance. In saying that he did have every chance last time but they did apply a bit of pressure to him so I’m sure he will be there somewhere.”
Speed Maps

SALS MO (2) is pretty quick off the arm and likes to lead in his races but he may have to watch brilliant beginner NIGHT AFFAIR (4) spear across him here before seizing the front in the early stages of the race. If that scenario plays out then JASMINE SHEFFIELD (3) should settle somewhere in the running line with either LOMBO FLASHLIGHT (5) or FUTURE OPERATOR (7) set to occupy the breeze. BELLASARIO (11) appeals as the best late closer engaged but she will need a lot of luck and plenty of mid-race speed to make an impression in the lane.

This is a tricky race to read because CANADIAN DREAM (1) and FASTER THAN CLEO (2) both get out OK but whichever leads early will be looking for a trail behind any of BELLA CHEVAL (3), DROP US ALINE (4), IFU SEEK FLIGHT (5) or KYVALLEY RACER (7). The race will be shaped by what happens early but we can rely on upon WEREGONNAROCK (13) launching a three wide assault if he stays in gait throughout.

The only real speed off the front line here belongs to EVIL TRICKSTER (7) but unless he launches straight across them at the start then MISTER RUFUS (2) should burrow through, find the pegs first and have options once he does. ROYAL DEVIATE (4) also has some early toe and he may up in search of the top or sit parked at very worst while STUCK IN SECOND (10), BOYZ TORQUE (12) and GARABALDI UNION (13) should all be obliged to race tough and wide if they’re to get the prize.

KID COCONUT (5) showed brilliant gate speed to leave his rivals lamenting last time out at this course so there’s no reason why he won’t do the same again, particularly as fellow fast starter JACCKA LUKE (1) usually prefers to race with a trail. PASS THEM BY (7) is a Kiwi campaigner and he too has excellent gate speed so look for him to test KID COCONUT (5) early and race handy even if he doesn’t get across with ALCHEMY (8) likely to stick hard to the pegs and NATIONAL SERVICE (4) and THE PHANTOM (11) the dangerous late closers if the speed is on from go to whoa.

There’s actually a huge amount of front line speed here with TARA TOPLADY (1), VICTORIA MAY (2) (2) and ILLAWONG KATH (5) all likely to fire forward early. If TARA TOPLADY (1) can fend her rivals off as expected then she may look to hold the lead although CARPENTERS DAUGHTER (6) will be up to test her out at some point of the race. SHAKE IT MAMA (9) will look to follow through and race handy from her tidy trailing draw while LA MACHANE (10) and STYLISH JASPER (7) are both dangerous sit-sprinters and FAIREST ONE YOUARE (8) will get a favourable peg-line run.

There’s no sizzling speed off the front line here but at his best EARL OF MOT (4) would just keep pushing forward in search of the lead here while VULCAN (6) would also cruise forward and MISTER ZION (7) should end up parked after balancing up in the early stages. Of the second row runners TENDER DON (11) looks a moral to lead the three side line while BRIEF GLANCE (10) and I SEE ICY EARL (8) can either race for luck on the pegs or take the three-wide cart home and be dangerous either way if the cards all fall their way.

Most fast class races are relatively easy to map but this one is quite tough as MELPARK MAJOR (2) should push forward and find the early lead but whether he opts to hold the top or hands up in transit could well shape the race. If he hold the lead then there will be plenty of runners headed by IM CORZIN TERROR (10) and YOURANUT (12) looking to work up and sit outside him but if he hands up anything it’s likely to be MUSTANG MACH (5) who himself may opt to keep the front or hand up once again.

SONOFANEARL (3) is a quick beginner that should look to find the pegs first but if HABIBTI (5) returns in anything like the form she showed last campaign she’ll be rolling forward in pursuit of the top ASAP. Most of the rest are essentially sit-sprinters barring MAORI VACATION (8) who will probably get off the pegs early and roll forward with a mid-race move or come with one run late.

THIRSTY MACH (1) is at least as quick as any other runner drawn the front line here but his MO these days is usually to hand up ascendancy to an appropriate runner when he finds the top. That runner here should almost certainly be CATCH YOUR BREATH (5) although KEAYANG RUSTLER (3) also begins OK and should try hard to stay in front of CATCH YOUR BREATH (5) if he can. SMUDGE BROMAC (7) can either sit last and come with one big run or more likely roll forward to sit parked while ELIMINATOR (2) should lob the running line and THAT’S MISTER ALI (4) will sit back and hope for gaps and fortune late.

Given there was only one heat for this final we can expect a very similar scenario here to the one that prevailed there with SKETCH ME (3) crossing over early before handing back to PAINT THE HAMMER (2) early on. YOUNG MODERN (6) sat parked after breaking stride early last time so he should get that spot even more easily with a safe getaway here while PRESIDENTIALSECRET (4) should race with a sit and hope to overwhelm his rivals late.

Friday, November 29, 2013

Good form Preview - Friday Night @ Bray

The Game Plan for Ballarat - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bets
Soho Lennon (Race 1 no. 13) $3.50 ($20 Win)
This guy is a 3YO taking on the older horses from the worst possible gate but classic-age horses have an excellent record in these lower class affairs and this bloke has returned to racing in excellent style this campaign. Critically, he has also won both of his starts this prep from off the speed so he doesn’t need to play bully to win and Mick Stanley knows this track like the back of his hand.

Cowboy Cadillac (Race 2 no. 10) $2 ($50 Win)
In many ways this bloke might be better suited as an anchor for Trifectas and First 4’s because he never runs a bad race and will almost certainly feature on the dais but I think in his current vein of form he really should be winning this with even luck. Expect him to make a mid-race move and prove a shade too strong although Waterhorse (11) first up for Dean Braun could cause him some bother.

Win The Crowd (Race 4 no. 10) $2.20 ($30 Win)
It’s never easy to come off a 20m backmark over middle distance trips and this bloke is another who might be better suited as an exotic anchor but he loves Ballart, he loves the standing and given there’s a question mark over each of his key rivals here I’m backing him to prove a class above in the final 100m.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 1
As previously mentioned, I am pretty keen on Soho Lennon (13) here. In fact the only thing that can beat him is if they go too slow in front and even then I think he’ll rush home for second to take the tricks below and we should end up on top.

13/ 3,6,12/ 3,6,8,10,11,12. $30 gets 200%
13/ 8,10,11/ 3,6,8,10,11,12. $10 gets 66.67%
3,6,12/ 13/ 3,6,8,10,11,12. $10 gets 66.67%

Race 3
This looks a dead-set match race between Metro Mike (6) and Magical Telf (5) and given I think the former horse can cross the latter early I’m tipping he will be the one to snare the prize.

6/ 5/ 1,2,7. $39 gets 1300%
5/ 6/ 1,2,7. $11 gets 366.67%

Race 9

I will be shocked if My Bella Starr (5) and Tallulah Bay (6) don’t finish one-two in that order here but rather than take an extremely skinny Exacta I’ve carved up three neat Tricks in the hope of maximising our profit on the race.

5/ 6/ 2. $20 gets 2000%
5/ 6/ 1,3. $20 gets 1000%
5/ 6/ 7,8. $10 gets 500%

The Quads (x4)
10/ 2,5,6,7/ 6,7,10/ 1,4,5,10,12. $40 gets 66.67%
10/ 2,5,6,7/ 1,2,8/ 1,4,5,10,12. $15 gets 25%
1,8,11/ 2,5,6,7/ 6,7,10/ 1,4,5,10,12. $36 gets 20%
1,8,11/ 2,5,6,7/ 6,7,10/ 1,4,5,10,12. $9 gets 5%

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Bendigo

The Game Plan for Bendigo – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s been a topsy-turvy week on the punt so far but the one consistent theme has been competitive, even racing where stone cold morals have been difficult to find and that continues tonight at lord’s Raceway Bendigo. The beauty of the punt however, is that there’s always a positive and in this case it’s the fact that plenty of value will be on offer and the Quad could pay anything at all.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Just Call Me Earl (Race 6 no.12) $3.50
Unless you’re betting in elite level races there’s no such thing as a moral trotter but if you’re getting anything like the $3.50 in today’s Herald Sun then this bloke fits the bill as a near-good-thing on class and ability alone. The fact of the matter is he narrowly went down to Great Southern Star qualifier Jingling Silver last start while his main rival here in Jusamirel (10) has ability but is rising sharply in grade so it’s easy to pick one over the other.

Best Roughies ($10 x $40)
Endorsement (Race 4 no. 1) $15
I’m keen here and there are a few reasons why:

1) This is a WIDE open race where most can win and both barriers and drivers will play a big role in the result.
2) This guy is an excellent beginner who can either push through and hold the top given the short course nature of the race and hand up to a horse like Satisfied Grin (2) and be dangerous either way.
3) His last start eighth was a LOT better than it seems as he handed up to Garabaldi Union in that race before having that horse collapse on him and he did fight on well when he saw some daylight late.

Exsalont (Race 5 no. 5) $15
I’ve been following this guy for most of his career for some reason but even more in particularly at his past few starts and despite an average figure formline he is going well. This is also another race where about seven of them can win and the front line draw could prove crucial if he gets away OK.

The Money Race – Race 3 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)
This looks a seriously skinny race where Majestic Swan (1) is unlikely to hand up the lead, Art De Triomphe (8) should be right on her back and they should dominate as a result. The fly in the ointment could be Denim Npearls (2) as she’s a debutante in pretty good hands who may blow this lot away.

1,8/ 1,8/ 2,9. $24 gets 600%
1,8/ 1,8/ 3,7,10,11. $12 gets 150%
1,8/ 2,9/ 1,8. $10 gets 250%
2/ 1,8/ 1,8. $4 gets 200%

The Quads (x2)
1,2,3,5,6,8,10/ 4,5,6,8,9,11,12/ 12/ 1,4,7,8,10. $50 gets 20.41%
1,2,3,5,6,8,10/ 4,5,6,8,9,11,12/ 1,6,10/ 1,4,7,8,10. $50 gets 6.8%

Star Trialler
The Majestic (Race 8 no.9) $2.70
This guy isn’t for the faint of heart having galloped at his only two starts to date.

Prior to that he found himself in the Star Trial file however and since his runs he has returned for another couple of strong trial wins at Shepparton.

He hasn’t been overly impressive time-wise but visually he has more than his fair share of ability and if he can get a decent run through from the second row then he is a huge chance of winning if he stays in gait.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Mildura

The Game Plan for Mildura – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
We bounced back in fine fashion last night at Kilmore but there’s no sugar coating the fact that tonight’s programme is very, very tricky, so I’m playing safe and if happen to double our folding Ill consider that an excellent result. Simply put, I’m targeting one of everything tonight with 1 Best Value Bet, 1 Best Roughie, 1 Money Race and a couple of pretty skinny Quads.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Let Memphis Loose (Race 5 no. 1) $5
It’s always tricky backing interlopers to Mildura from other parts of the state because the formlines are just so difficult to read but if this guy can resist any early attacks from Superstar Express (3) and Ronzel Gem (5) then he should lead this lot around and on his best form he should go fairly close.

Best Roughie ($10 x $40)
Fakeitgood (Race 4 no. 1) $10
This bloke is no star but if he is crossed only once here and gets the gun run in behind the speed then I feel confident he’ll finish on the podium at pretty decent odds.

The Money Race
Race 5
The most likely scenarios here are that Let Memphis Loose (1) will get a fairly cosy lead and out-sprint his rivals in the lane or that he’ll be softened up by Attitude Adjuster (8) paving the way for that horse’s stablemate Miss Ruthless (7) to burst through late and salute. Both scenarios are covered here so hopefully we can collect some cabbage.

1,7/ 1,3,7,8/ 1,3,7,8. $24 gets 200%
1,7/ 1,3,7,8/ 5,6,9. $26 gets 144.44%

The Quads
1,2,3,4,5,8,11/ 1,7,8/ 4/ 5,9. $58 gets 138.1%
1,2,3,4,5,8,11/ 1,7,8/ 5,8/ 5,9. $42 gets 50%

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Good Form Preview - Tuesday @ Kilmore

The Game Plan for Kilmore – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
After a very pleasing weekend, yesterday Horsham was an unmitigated disaster, but rather than cry into our pillows we’re going to pony up as we always do for a decent crack at Kilmore’s card tonight. There are no dead-set certainties on the programme but that should make for some competitive racing and perhaps some value results so follow me in on my 1 Best Bet at a very handy price, 1 Best Value Bet, 2 Money Races and 6 Quads and we should bounce back with a decent win.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
No Bettertime (Race 6 no. 4) $3.25
I’ve been a pretty big fan of this guy for quite some time now and I loved both the gate speed he used to lead first-up at Ballarat and also his tenacity to fight off what looks like a very smart horse in Bushrod until the final 30m. He should lead again tonight and while he’s taking on some handy ones I think he’ll be too good.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Sotiris (Race 1 no. 6) $8.50
This bloke is resuming for his first run since August and will have the services of top-class trainer, Wayne Potter and superstar driver, Nathan Jack for the very first time. At his best this guy is a quick beginner and given Ida Tiger (1) is likely to take a sit I think Jack can get him to the top pretty early on. If that scenario prevails the $8.50 would look unbelievable indeed.

The Money Races
Race 1 ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
To my mind there are three key hopes here to win and limited other who are likely to land on the podium so take the Tricks below and hope for some value somewhere in the placings.

1,6,7/ 1,6,7/ 1,2,6,7,8,9. $38 gets 158.33%
1,6,7/ 2,8,9/ 1,2,6,7,8,9. $12 gets 50%

Race 6 ($100 Flexi Trifectas)
As previously mentioned, I see No Bettertime (4) as the leader and winner here but he does have two major threats in Dont Wanadie (8) and The Major League (10) and if they dominate the race between them we’ll make some folding form the race.

4/ 8,10/ 8,10. $50 gets 2500%
8,10/ 4,8,10/ 4,8,10. $20 gets 500%
4/ 8,10/ 1,2,3,6,9. $20 gets 200%
8,10/ 4,8,10/ 1,2,3,6,9. $10 gets 50%

The Quads (x6)
10/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/  4/ 4,7,9. $28 gets 155.56%
10/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/ 8,10/ 4,7,9. $18 gets 50%
5,11/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/ 4/ 4,7,9. $18 gets 50%
5,11/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/ 8,10/ 4,7,9. $9 gets 25%
1,2,8,12/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/ 4/ 4,7,9. $18 gets 25%
1,2,8,12/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/ 8,10/ 4,7,9. $9 gets 12.5%

Star Trialler
Ess Prefontaine (Race 4 no. 5) $9
(2190m/2:03.8 – 60.5secs/ Neck x Neck/ Rosemary Lane 2nd Shepparton Thursday 14 November)
David Aiken continues to produce some handy types at the Shepparton trials and this guy could well be the next in a long line of good horses for the stable.
He is as yet unraced but we’ve seen him at the trials three times this preparation.

Don’t be perturbed by the two sixths next to his name in his first couple of hit outs because he was taken off the arm in each and never extended when finishing towards the rear.
Two weeks he was allowed to slide a little more in the straight and he rounded up his rivals with consummate ease.

He certainly hasn’t beaten anything of note but he looks like a clean-actioned horse that has plenty of room to improve.
We shouldn’t be taking any outrageous odds on debut, but if he is around the each-way level then he is worth a bet.

Monday, November 25, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Horsham

The Game Plan for Horsham – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
What a sensational way to start another week on the punt! After putting an extra $300 or so in the kick following a profitable Good Form weekend I am well and truly ready to sink my teeth into this card today. In total I’ve found two almost-good-things that I’m using to anchor a pair of Monet Races while I’ve also located 1 Best Bet at a price, 1 Best Value Bet, 2 Roughies and a quartet of fairly healthy Quads.

Best Bet ($25 Win)
Gee Mae (Race 2 no. 1) $4
There are a few question marks over this mare given she’s first-up from a lengthy break and no longer has the services of gun mentor Larry Eastman, but at her best she would lead this lot around and beat them pretty comfortably so without breaking the bank she’s worth a little straight out crack if the price is right.

Best Value ($15 x $10)
Mightbeme (Race 5 no. 7) $7
This mare didn’t finish off her first preparation in great style but her first couple of runs were very good and with Matthew Craven in the cart I can just see her rushing forward, putting the foot down and proving very hard to catch in what really is a fairly moderate field.

Best Roughies
Ruffiano (Race 6 no. 5) $12 ($10 x $40)
I’m pretty keen here. Not that he’ll necessarily win, because Suerte (6) arrives here with some strong credentials from New Zealand, but I do think he’ll be first to the pegs and if Ellen Tormey is happy to hand-up in transit I think he’ll almost certainly finish on the podium at handy odds the drum.

Dillon Daphne (Race 7 no. 1) $15 ($25 Place)
This mare should also have the benefit of a sweet behind-the-leader trip if Our Mischievious Miss (2) leads them around as expected and while she’s first-up from a break into a pretty handy race she is worth a wager straight out for the place.

The Money Race - Race 4 (Flexi Trifecta & First 4 for $75 total)
Jackabeems (2) may have a little battle to hold the early lead here but if he does keep the front I cannot see them running him down. In terms of those capable of running second Additallup (4) and Mayorofshinetown (5) look to have that honour between them while there are a few engaged unlikely to finish third or even fourth.

2/ 4,5/ 1,4,5,8. $40 gets 666.67%
2/ 4,5/ 1,4,5,8/ 1,4,5,7,8,9. $35 gets 145.83%

The Quads (x4)
2/ 1,2,3,7,8/ 6/ 2,5,7. $45 gets 300%
2/ 1,2,3,7,8/ 5,9/ 2,5,7. $45 gets 150%
2/ 1,2,3,7,8/ 6/ 1,6. $5 gets 50%
2/ 1,2,3,7,8/ 5,9/ 1,6. $5 gets 25%


Sunday, November 24, 2013

Goodform Preview - Gunbower Cup Day

The Game Plan for Gunbower with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).

Best Value
Playing the Ace (Race 3 no.8) ($30Win/$70Place) $13
This guy produced by far his best run to finsh a close up third last start with a big gap back to fourth spot. He meets a similar class field here and is drawn to get an ideal run trailing the likely leader PHILOTES (1) and at $13 looks great value on an each way basis.
 Jingling Silver (Race 5 no.3) ($50Each Way) $13
This mare is flying at the moment. Three runs back she finished close up in the Kilmore trotters Cup after beginning well to find the pegs first from the front line. Two back she finished a respectable fifth at Maryborough in the Cup, then last start powered home in the lane to win running away in quick time after beginning off a 30m handicap. She looks a super chance from the front line here and at $13 looks a great bet on an each way basis. 
Money Race
Race 1 Flexi First 4’s ($75)
4/ 1,6,7/ 1,3,6,7/ 1,3,6,7 $40 gets 222.22%
1,6,7/ 4/ 1,3,6,7/ 1,3,6,7 $31 gets 172.22%
4/ 3/ 1,6,7/ 1,6,7 $4 gets 66.66%
Quad (x1)
2,5,7,8,11/ 2,3,12,13/ 3,4,7,9/ 2,4,5,7,8,11,12 $100 gets 17.85%

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Good Form Preview - Saturday Night @ Beckley Park

The Game Plan for Geelong – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Tonight’s Beckley Park programme is somewhat unusual in that one-third of the races appear to have absolutely clear-cut winners and the rest of the card is full of deep, even, very difficult races to read. Having said that, I’m going to play pretty conservatively with a skinny All-Up, 1 Money Race and 2 Quads but much of our night will rest with Our Burning Desire because if she wins we should almost certainly snare a handy profit and if she loses we are sunk!

Best Bets/All-Up ($100)
Im Anonymiss (Race 3 no. 7) $1.50

Flew straight to the lead and never looked like losing first-up in Oz and even from the wide draw here she should spear immediately to the top once more and that should be the end of the race as a contest.

Our Burning Desire (Race 5 no. 7) $1.90
This mare sat parked then only went into overdrive after locking wheels in the lane. She’s even better drawn here than she was last week so expect her to roll forward at some stage to find the lead or the breeze and prove a class above from either role tonight.

Glenferrie EJ (Race 8 no. 3) $1.30
This mare split Musical Delight and Our Femme Fatale as a two-year-old and has always had a massive boom on her so this race barely represents an obstacle this evening.

The Money Race – Race 5 (Flexi First 4 for $100)
As mentioned above, I think Our Burning Desire (7) is close to a moral here. If she finds the lead, it could turn into a peg-dominated affair, which would probably be most valuable for us, but even if it doesn’t I think we’ll still end up on top.

7/ 1,3,8,10/ 1,3,5,8,10/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,9,10,13. $100 gets 89.29%

The Quad
1/ 7/ 3,4,7/ 1,2,5,10. $30 gets 250%
2,3,5,6,7,8/ 7/ 3,4,7/ 1,2,5,10. $70 gets 97.22%

Star Trialler

Loveyougoodboy (Race 1 no. 11) $2.20

This guy has plenty of ability and has been trialling the house down at Maryborugh with four recent wins from as many runs, including a last start success over Aleppo Midas where they finished off in 58.9. The 30m backmark is an obstacle but he's earned it here and does look like the one they have to roll.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Good Form Preview - Tri-Code Night @ Cranny

The Game Plan for Cranbourne – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bet ($50 Win)
Cowboy Cadillac (Race 3 no. 5) $1.60
If you’re looking for one stone cold moral at an OK price I reckon this guy is it. He has been racing in better class than this of late and was brave from the top end at Melton last time out so if he  lobs the lead or breeze as expected I can’t see them holding him out.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 1
Unless he gets shuffled further back than I’m expecting from the ace alley I really think Stormee (1) is the horse to beat here and should finish no worse than second tonight. There are plenty of others who can fill up the podium but it’s the sort of race where we can get a big value result.

1/ 2,6,7,9/ 2,3,6,7,8,9,11. $36 gets 150%
2,6,7,9/ 1/ 2,3,6,7,8,9,11. $14 gets 58.33%

Race 2
This is one of those rare RBD races where the best horses have all happened to draw pretty well and should dominate proceedings as a result. If things go even close to plan then the top four picks should fight out the finish so box them all up and hope the favourite doesn’t win.

1,2,3,9 Boxed. $50 gets 208.33%

Race 6
Stuck In Second (8) was slightly below his bets last start at Melton but he’s the best horse here for sure and should finish second at very worst. The only ones that can trouble him are the improving Supersub (6), the enigmatic Royal Deviate (1) and likely leader Evil Trickster (3) who may get no pressure if and when he finds the top.

8/ 1,3,6/ 1,2,3,5,6. $36 gets 300%
1,3,6/ 8/ 1,2,3,5,6. $14 gets 116.67%

The Quads
6/ 4,7/ 8/ 2,3,9. $30 gets 500%
6/ 4,7/ 1,3,6/ 2,3,9. $36 gets 200%
3,7/ 4,7/ 8/ 2,3,9. $24 gets 200%
3,7/ 4,7/ 1,3,6/ 2,3,9. $10 gets 27.78%

Good Form Preview - Friday @ Maryborough

The Game Plan for Maryborough – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bets/ All-Up ($75)
Bliss Man (Race 1 no. 6) $1.25
If ever there was a pain-free way to start an all-up, this should be it. Put simply, this bloke has looked like being a good horse for a pretty long time and his performances this campaign have proven he’s going a lot way farther than a C1 at Maryborough for sure.
Weregonnarock (Race 2 no. 1) $1.55
This guy has some obstacles as a 3YO trotter taking on the older horses for the first time while also tackling the mobile start for just the second time from a tricky alley but on talent and potential he has a fair bit on these and if he gets a trouble free run he should be too good.
Bushrod (Race 5 no. 4) $2.30
I was very impressed by this guy’s performance first-up in Australia last start and given he gets the front lien against mostly moderate opposition here and did handle the stand and his only attempt back home I think he’ll be too good by a margin here today.
Best Roughie ($5 x $20)
Exsalont (Race 4 no. 7) $21
This guy was pretty good finishing second behind Our Summer Wind two starts back then got no luck late behind that same horse last time out. He’ll need a very genuine tempo to be dangerous here but he just keeps grinding late and could be dangerous if circumstances permit.
The Money Race – Race 4 ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
The most likely scenario here is that Rapid Art Beat (4) will cross Bettor Move (1) early and they will dominate from there but Dont Tell Jim (5) may well endure the race is run at genuine tempo bringing both himself and Exsalont (7) into the race. Either way we should be winning with the Tricks below.
1,4/ 1,4,5,7/ 1,4,5,7,8. $36 gets 200%
5,7/ 1,4,5,7/ 1,4,5,7,8. $14 gets 77.78%
The Quads (x2)
1,4/ 4/ 4,7,11/ 1,4,7. $72 gets 400%
5,7/ 4/ 4,7,11/ 1,4,7. $28 gets 155.56%