Saturday, November 9, 2013

Good Form preview - Legends Night @ Melton

Jason Bonnington's Preview

The Game Plan for Legends Night – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

There’s no other way of putting it – I am mustard keen on tonight’s meeting & I strongly suggest you form punters clubs among your mates to also get involved! There’s a fair bit of cost involved with tonight’s Game Plan but if you pool your resources or bet to a budget you should be able to attack the All-Up, the 3 Best Value Bets, the 3 Money Races, the Exotic Speed Map Special and the Quads outlined below. Even as I’m writing this I’m itching to get on!

Best Bets/ All-Up ($75)
Goodtime Jasper (Race 1 no. 1) $2.20
This bloke is a brilliant beginner who should hold his rivals wide from the polemarking draw and given this is a heat race – where the pressure is usually moderate at best – I think he’ll cruise to victory here with Gavin in the cart.

Metro Mike (Race 4 no. 5) $1.60
I’ve long suspected that this bloke has open class potential and his form this preparation has not dulled that view one iota. He should stay out of any early speed duels here but if he’s unleashed at the right time I think he’ll go straight past his adversaries tonight.

Our Burning Desire (Race 9 no. 1) $2.20
I always love gambling in finals and this race is no different. If the above pacer holds the top as expected here I can’t see any serious pressure through the middle stages and as a result she should out-sprint them late for a fairly routine win.

Best Value ($10 x$15)
Mustang Mach (Race 7 no. 1) $8/$2.12 TAB Fixed Odds
This guy produced one of the runs of the race in the VHRSC Classic behind Bitobliss then went very well again in the Kilmore Cup. That particular race is as good a form reference as you will find and given this bloke looks capable of holding his rivals wide for as long as he likes here I think he’ll end up in the ideal position to ambush his rivals in the lane.

Catch Your Breath (Race 7 no. 7) $18/$3.72 TAB Fixed Odds
If Mustang Mach does hold the early lead here I think there’s an enormous chance that he’ll hand up to his stablemate above. If that happens then both horses are a great chance of being in the money and even if it doesn’t, this guy just won the Popular Alm Sprint and must be respected at the monster odds tonight.

Ourbellabro (Race 10 no. 5) $4.50
Many will be saying I’m a glutton for punishment here but I still contend that this mare loves short course racing when she’s able to lead and that looks the likely scenario tonight. The key will be for her to run along a little though as she lacks change-up speed and can be pinged if she goes too slow in transit.
The Money Races ($75 Flexi Trifectas per race)

Race 1
As previously mentioned Goodtime Jasper (1) looks like leading and winning here while Sals Mo (6) should sit parked and also finish on the dais. If those two pacers dominate as expected then we’ll get something out of the race and if Lombo Flashlight (8) joins them we may get everything we need out of the evening’s opening race!

1/ 6/ 8. $15 gets 1500%

1/ 6/ 2,3,9,10,11. $30 gets 600%
1/ 8/ 6. $5 gets 500%
1/ 2,3,9,10,11/ 6. $15 gets 300%
6/ 1/ 8. $5 gets 500%
6/ 1/ 2,3,9,10,11. $5 gets 100%

Race 6
Taking a little risk here but I think it will be well worth it. The one thing we can almost rely upon here is that La Machane (1) will hold her rivals wide for the first 50-100m before letting one of her rivals slide to the top. Unfortunately it’s not so easy to work out which of her adversaries will take up the lead. As a result we’re going to anchor the polemarker to finish top-3 in Trifectas with the five other hopes who can share the dais with her tonight.

1/ 2,4,7,8,10/ 2,4,7,8,10. $30 gets 150%
2,4,7,8,10/ 1/ 2,4,7,8,10. $30 gets 150%
2,4,7,8,10/ 2,4,7,8,10/ 1. $15 gets 75%

Race 9
I am forever banging on about heat-into-final races and this one looks a beauty with one heat winner - Our Burning Desire (1) - a red hot favourite for mine to just lead and win and another - Our Summer Wind (6) – her only real threat. If both horses finish on the podium we are very likely to walk away in front.

1/ 6/ 2,5,7,8,9. $40 gets 800%
1/ 2,5,7,8,9/ 6. $20 gets 400%
6/ 1/ 2,5,7,8,9. $15 gets 300%

The Exotic Speed Map Special ($75 Flexi Trifectas)
From a Speed Map perspective there are only two likely scenarios here for mine. Either Cold Sister (2) will work to the lead and her very classy stablemate My High Expectations (6) will sit parked quietly outside her, or she will take a sit on his back in transit. If the latter scenario prevails then they’ll almost certainly run one-two and even if the former scenario plays out I still think both horses will help comprise the Trick.
6/ 2/ 1,3,7,8. $40 gets 1000%
6/ 1,3,7,8/ 2. $20 gets 500%
2/ 6/ 1,3,7,8. $15 gets 375%

The Quads (x2)
5/ 1,7/ 1,2,8/ 1,4,7,8. $60 gets 250%
5/ 1,7/ 4,7,10/ 1,4,7,8. $40 gets 166.67%

The Game Plan for Legends Night – with Andrew Evans(@AndrewEvansHRV) 

Best Bets/ All-Up ($100)
Metro Mike (Race 4 no. 5) $1.60
This guy looks classes above his rivals tonight. Not sure if he will go forward or back at the start but I don't think it matters where he settles, either way he looks the winner.    

Chancellor Cullen (Race 5 no. 7) $1.80
This guy was dominant leading all the way to win the Kilmore Cup last start after a huge run in the Nyah Cup where he was defeated by the brilliant Restrepo who had the last shot at him in the lane. Expect him to work forward tonight and find the lead and be extremely hard to beat. 

The Money Races
Race 1
Quinella 1,8 $100
Race 8
6/ 2/ 1,7,8 $22.50 gets 750%
2/ 6/ 1,7,8 $15 gets 500%
2,6/ 1,7,8/ 2,6 $12.50 gets 208%

The Quads (x4)

5/ 7/ 1,2,4,7,8,10/ 1,4,5,7,9 $30 gets 100%
5/ 1,9/ 1,2,4,7,8,10/ 1,4,5,7,9 $30 gets 50%
8,11/ 7/ 1,2,4,7,8,10/ 1,4,5,7,9 $25 gets 41.66% 
8,11/ 1,9/ 1,2,4,7,8,10/ 1,4,5,7,9 $15 gets 12.5%

Tabcorp Park Melton Trainer Talk – Ross Sugars
Best Chance
Our Burning Desire (Race 9 no.1) $2.20 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“We’ve been blessed with a good barrier and she gets out of the gate good so she probably looks like the leader again. I’d say she will take some beating in a race like that.”
Our Nancy Miles (Race 4 no.11) $7.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I’ve been rapt in Our Nancy Miles last two efforts, particularly the other night at Shepparton when she got beat just outside the track record.
“She’s going really well and has trained on terrific but it’s just a terrible barrier draw over the short trip. If she qualifies for the final then they will know she’s there.”
La Machane (Race 6 no.1) $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“It’s going to be a huge advantage for her being on the fence and she was just terrific last week. It just shows she is still competitive against the best mares.
American Muscle (Race 7 no.9) $21 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
 “I think he has been a victim of poor barrier draws and in this sort of class a horse of his ability can’t afford to draw one horse back or one horse wide when they settle.
“I’ve had the clock on him in his last two ninths and they’ve been sensational runs. I’ve got no doubt that if he had Catch Your Breath’s run at Kilmore then we would have won the Popular Alm Sprint.
“The other day he just maintained his good form at Maryborough and being a standing start he wasn’t used out of the gate so he was able to put in two efforts.
 “I would have loved to have drawn 1,2 or 8 on Saturday night but we haven’t so the chances are he will settle in the back half and I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a track record run on the weekend.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Our Archangel: 1:54.12
Fastest Last Half – Broadways Best: 54.44secs
Fastest Last Quarter – La Machane: 26.44secs
Sectional Superstar
La Machane (Race 6 no.1)
– $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare proved last campaign that she can silence the doubters when the right opportunity presents itself and he last run shows she is right up to her old form.
Letting rip with the fastest last quarter of the night, she rattled home in 26.44 to finish fourth.
This week she draws a soft pegline run and looks a major threat of breaking through once again in town.

Star Trialler

My High Expectations (Race 8 no.6) (2190m/2:00.5 – 58.6secs/ 1m x 2m/Catchtateye 1st) – $1.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy already has the runs on the board being a Great Southern Star placegetter and dual-country cups champion who has broken the clock on more than one occasion.
He didn’t win the mainly pacing trial but what he did do was find the top throughout the trial and Josh Aiken never really let him go in the straight. He wasn’t beaten far in a really solid last half of 58.6 so we can expect him to return to somewhere near his best when he re-appears tonight.

Speed Maps

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