Saturday, November 30, 2013

Good Form Preview - Miracle Mile & Popular Alm FFA Night

Adam Hamilton's Melton Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Much of Australasia’s trotting focus will be on Menangle tonight but there’s also a terrific card at Melton with a heap of genuine betting races and some real value on offer. It’s a good thing I’m not on radio today because it would take quite some time to go through the four Money Races below along with the Quads and the Best Roughies but as it is you only have to take the bets below and hopefully walk away on top!

Best Roughies ($10 x $15)
Earl Of Mot (Race 6 no. 4) $16/$3.60 TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke was one of five horses to break 58 seconds for their last halves in the Chris Howe Trotters Cup last time out and given he looks very likely to lead in a race lacking absolute A-graders (apart from Vulcan (6) and Mister Zion (7) who both have things against them, I think he gets a great chance to win or at least finish on the dais at good odds.

I See Icy Earl (Race 6 no. 8) $16/$3.60 TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
This is the other horse that I’d be happy to back in what I see as a much more open trot that the odds-makers would have you believe. The major things in his favour are the fact that he has better point-to-point speed than anything else engaged (other than Vulcan (7)) at his best and that he has Greg Sugars in the cart. I’m not saying he’s a moral but the $16 is just silly for mine.

Broadways Best (Race 7 no. 7) $16/$3.50 TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
I’ve been saying for quite some time that this superstar mare is better placed in powerful open class races than those against her own sex because she follows brutal speed with ease and can still peel off a super quarter late. The draw is a big imposition for her here but it is a race where there’ll be plenty of mid-race moves and if the speed is true and she gets a cart into the race she’ll be more like a $5 chance than the $16 she is right now.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 3
I have really isolated Mister Rufus (2), Royal Deviate (4) and Stuck In Second (10) as the top trio here with Supersub (6) a rung below and plenty of horse who couldn’t possibly finish on the podium.
2,4,10/ 2,4,10/ 2,4,6,10.  $24 gets 200%
2,4,10/ 2,4,10/ 9,11,12,13. $26 gets 108.33%

Race 7
The scratching of Chancellor Cullen has opened this race right up but I remain confident that Melpark Major (2), Broadways Best (7), Im Corzin Terror (10) and Youranut (12) will dominate proceedings if things pan out to plan.
2,7,10,12 Boxed. $24 gets 100%
2,7,10,12/ 2,7,10,12/ 5,6,8,9. $26 gets 54.17%

Race 8
Habibti (5) would only have to be half wound up to beat this lot tonight so she’s a clear on-top selection while I’m banking that Maori Vacation (8), a horse of untapped ability, will join him on the podium tonight.
5/ 8/ 1,3,4,6,7,9. $30 gets 500%
1/ 2,3,4,6,7,9/ 8. $20 gets 333.33%

Race 9
Catch Your Breath (5) is close to a living moral here given he should find the front and dictate terms from there while Smudge Bromac (7) is the other class factor of the race that should really join him on the podium for sure.
5/ 7/ 1,2,3,4. $32 gets 800%
5/ 1,2,3,4/ 7. $18 gets 450%

The Quads (x3 for $150)
5,7/ 6,9/ 4,6,7,8,10,11/ 2,7,10,12. $96 gets 100%
5,7/ 1,7,8,10/ 4,6,7,8,10,11/ 2,7,10,12. $32 gets 16.33%
4,8,11/ 6,9/ 4,6,7,8,10,11/ 2,7,10,12. $22 gets 15.28%

The Game Plan for Melton with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).
Best Bet ($100 Win)
(Race 10 No.6 Young Modern) $2 Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke did a super job to finish as close as he did after messing up the start at his first run back at Gunbower in the only heat for this final.  To put it simply he meets the same opposition as he did at Gunbower and if he gets away cleanly and does everything right he should be winning.

Best Value ($50 Each Way)
(Race 1 No.6 Future Operator) $7.50 Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy is a tough consistent type who did all the work three wide without cover in his win at Ballarat two back where he defeated the smart Suspicious Behavia. Last start he sat parked throughout and looked the winner in the straight before being swamped late. He will probably end up outside the leader again here and on the strength of his past two runs represents value at $7.50 on an each way basis.
Money Races
Race 9 Flexi First 4’s ($100)
5/ 7/ 2,4/ 2,4 $40 gets 2000%
5/ 7/ 2,4/ 3 $30 gets 1500%
5/ 7/ 3/ 2.4 $15 gets 750%
5/ 2,4/ 7/ 2,3,4 $15 gets 375%
Race 10 Flexi First 4’s ($100)
6/ 2,4/ 2,4/ 1,3 $75 gets 1875%
6/ 2,4/ 1,3/ 2,4 $25 gets 625%
Quads (x2)
5,7/ 1,4,7,8,10,11/ 4,6,7,8,11/ 2,7,8,10,12 $50 gets 16.67%
5,7/ 6,9/ 4,6,7,8,11/ 2,7,8,10,12 $50 gets 50%

The Game Plan for Menangle with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).
Best Bet ($100 Win)
(Race 7 No.10 Abettorpunt) $4.20
This guy has been racing at the peak of his powers this time in. Three runs back he finished a gallant third behind Restrepo and Chanchellor Cullen in the Nyah Cup after a wide run without cover on the last lap, two back he sat three wide the trip and was taking ground off Miracle Mile runner Beautide in the Newcastle Mile, then last start finished just off Smoken Up in the Cordina Sprint. He rises back up to the middle distance here and whilst he hasn’t drawn well he will have plenty of time to work into the race and he looks well placed against the opposition he meets tonight.
Best Value ($25Win/$75Place)
(Race 6 No.2 Tact Hayleys Delight) $8
This mare was the only runner to make up any noticeable ground off the pegs last start in a leader dominated affair. She is drawn much better here and is some hope of crossing to the pegs early and in an open race looks a great each way chance at a good price.   
Money Races
Race 8 Flexi First 4’s ($100)
2/ 1/ 3,5,6/ 3,5,6,8,10 $50 gets 416.67%
2/ 6/ 1/ 3,5,6,8,10 $20 gets 400%
6/ 1,2/ 1,2/ 3,5,6,8,10 $20 gets 200%
6/ 1/ 3,5,6/ 2,3,5,6,8,10 $10 gets 125%
Race 9 Flexi First 4’s ($100)
5,8/ 3,5,8/ 3,5,8/ 4 $60 gets 1500%
5,8/ 3,5,8/ 3,5,8/ 1,11 $30 gets 375%
5,8/ 3,5,8/ 4/ 3,5,8 $10 gets 250%
Quads (x6)
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 10/ 2 $30 gets 375%
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 3,4,5/ 2 $30 gets 125%
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 10/ 6 $15 gets 187.50%
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 3,4,5/ 6 $15 gets 62.50%
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 10/ 1 $5 gets 62.50%
3,10/ 2,8,9,11/ 3,4,5/ 1 $5 gets 20.83%

Tabcorp Park Melton Trainer Talk – Geoff Webster
Best Chance
Mister Zion (Race 6 no.7) $2.40 TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
“He just overraced last start so hopefully this week he will settle a little better and just work forward from out there.
“He’ll probably end up outside the leader again and he’s going really well at home. Vulcan is the one if he produces the form he showed last year but he hasn’t shown that in New Zealand and my horse is fit and well so I’m quite looking forward to the race.”
Future Operator (Race 1 no.6) $7.50 Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s going quite well and he has found a winnable race but the barrier draw is just against him.”

Kotare Roland (Race 4 no.6) $16 Click here to bet on this horse now
“It’s the same story again with him. I think all weekend we’ve drawn badly but he’s going well without a lot of luck. In that class it’s very hard to win unless you have some.
“He probably needs to be driven with a little bit of luck but I’d like to have a go at a couple of the Country Cups with him just to see where he measures up.”
Paint The Hammer (Race 10 no.2) $3.20 Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a handy little horse and it’s exactly the same field so he’s going to be a reasonable chance. In saying that he did have every chance last time but they did apply a bit of pressure to him so I’m sure he will be there somewhere.”
Speed Maps

SALS MO (2) is pretty quick off the arm and likes to lead in his races but he may have to watch brilliant beginner NIGHT AFFAIR (4) spear across him here before seizing the front in the early stages of the race. If that scenario plays out then JASMINE SHEFFIELD (3) should settle somewhere in the running line with either LOMBO FLASHLIGHT (5) or FUTURE OPERATOR (7) set to occupy the breeze. BELLASARIO (11) appeals as the best late closer engaged but she will need a lot of luck and plenty of mid-race speed to make an impression in the lane.

This is a tricky race to read because CANADIAN DREAM (1) and FASTER THAN CLEO (2) both get out OK but whichever leads early will be looking for a trail behind any of BELLA CHEVAL (3), DROP US ALINE (4), IFU SEEK FLIGHT (5) or KYVALLEY RACER (7). The race will be shaped by what happens early but we can rely on upon WEREGONNAROCK (13) launching a three wide assault if he stays in gait throughout.

The only real speed off the front line here belongs to EVIL TRICKSTER (7) but unless he launches straight across them at the start then MISTER RUFUS (2) should burrow through, find the pegs first and have options once he does. ROYAL DEVIATE (4) also has some early toe and he may up in search of the top or sit parked at very worst while STUCK IN SECOND (10), BOYZ TORQUE (12) and GARABALDI UNION (13) should all be obliged to race tough and wide if they’re to get the prize.

KID COCONUT (5) showed brilliant gate speed to leave his rivals lamenting last time out at this course so there’s no reason why he won’t do the same again, particularly as fellow fast starter JACCKA LUKE (1) usually prefers to race with a trail. PASS THEM BY (7) is a Kiwi campaigner and he too has excellent gate speed so look for him to test KID COCONUT (5) early and race handy even if he doesn’t get across with ALCHEMY (8) likely to stick hard to the pegs and NATIONAL SERVICE (4) and THE PHANTOM (11) the dangerous late closers if the speed is on from go to whoa.

There’s actually a huge amount of front line speed here with TARA TOPLADY (1), VICTORIA MAY (2) (2) and ILLAWONG KATH (5) all likely to fire forward early. If TARA TOPLADY (1) can fend her rivals off as expected then she may look to hold the lead although CARPENTERS DAUGHTER (6) will be up to test her out at some point of the race. SHAKE IT MAMA (9) will look to follow through and race handy from her tidy trailing draw while LA MACHANE (10) and STYLISH JASPER (7) are both dangerous sit-sprinters and FAIREST ONE YOUARE (8) will get a favourable peg-line run.

There’s no sizzling speed off the front line here but at his best EARL OF MOT (4) would just keep pushing forward in search of the lead here while VULCAN (6) would also cruise forward and MISTER ZION (7) should end up parked after balancing up in the early stages. Of the second row runners TENDER DON (11) looks a moral to lead the three side line while BRIEF GLANCE (10) and I SEE ICY EARL (8) can either race for luck on the pegs or take the three-wide cart home and be dangerous either way if the cards all fall their way.

Most fast class races are relatively easy to map but this one is quite tough as MELPARK MAJOR (2) should push forward and find the early lead but whether he opts to hold the top or hands up in transit could well shape the race. If he hold the lead then there will be plenty of runners headed by IM CORZIN TERROR (10) and YOURANUT (12) looking to work up and sit outside him but if he hands up anything it’s likely to be MUSTANG MACH (5) who himself may opt to keep the front or hand up once again.

SONOFANEARL (3) is a quick beginner that should look to find the pegs first but if HABIBTI (5) returns in anything like the form she showed last campaign she’ll be rolling forward in pursuit of the top ASAP. Most of the rest are essentially sit-sprinters barring MAORI VACATION (8) who will probably get off the pegs early and roll forward with a mid-race move or come with one run late.

THIRSTY MACH (1) is at least as quick as any other runner drawn the front line here but his MO these days is usually to hand up ascendancy to an appropriate runner when he finds the top. That runner here should almost certainly be CATCH YOUR BREATH (5) although KEAYANG RUSTLER (3) also begins OK and should try hard to stay in front of CATCH YOUR BREATH (5) if he can. SMUDGE BROMAC (7) can either sit last and come with one big run or more likely roll forward to sit parked while ELIMINATOR (2) should lob the running line and THAT’S MISTER ALI (4) will sit back and hope for gaps and fortune late.

Given there was only one heat for this final we can expect a very similar scenario here to the one that prevailed there with SKETCH ME (3) crossing over early before handing back to PAINT THE HAMMER (2) early on. YOUNG MODERN (6) sat parked after breaking stride early last time so he should get that spot even more easily with a safe getaway here while PRESIDENTIALSECRET (4) should race with a sit and hope to overwhelm his rivals late.

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