Thursday, November 28, 2013

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Bendigo

The Game Plan for Bendigo – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s been a topsy-turvy week on the punt so far but the one consistent theme has been competitive, even racing where stone cold morals have been difficult to find and that continues tonight at lord’s Raceway Bendigo. The beauty of the punt however, is that there’s always a positive and in this case it’s the fact that plenty of value will be on offer and the Quad could pay anything at all.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Just Call Me Earl (Race 6 no.12) $3.50
Unless you’re betting in elite level races there’s no such thing as a moral trotter but if you’re getting anything like the $3.50 in today’s Herald Sun then this bloke fits the bill as a near-good-thing on class and ability alone. The fact of the matter is he narrowly went down to Great Southern Star qualifier Jingling Silver last start while his main rival here in Jusamirel (10) has ability but is rising sharply in grade so it’s easy to pick one over the other.

Best Roughies ($10 x $40)
Endorsement (Race 4 no. 1) $15
I’m keen here and there are a few reasons why:

1) This is a WIDE open race where most can win and both barriers and drivers will play a big role in the result.
2) This guy is an excellent beginner who can either push through and hold the top given the short course nature of the race and hand up to a horse like Satisfied Grin (2) and be dangerous either way.
3) His last start eighth was a LOT better than it seems as he handed up to Garabaldi Union in that race before having that horse collapse on him and he did fight on well when he saw some daylight late.

Exsalont (Race 5 no. 5) $15
I’ve been following this guy for most of his career for some reason but even more in particularly at his past few starts and despite an average figure formline he is going well. This is also another race where about seven of them can win and the front line draw could prove crucial if he gets away OK.

The Money Race – Race 3 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)
This looks a seriously skinny race where Majestic Swan (1) is unlikely to hand up the lead, Art De Triomphe (8) should be right on her back and they should dominate as a result. The fly in the ointment could be Denim Npearls (2) as she’s a debutante in pretty good hands who may blow this lot away.

1,8/ 1,8/ 2,9. $24 gets 600%
1,8/ 1,8/ 3,7,10,11. $12 gets 150%
1,8/ 2,9/ 1,8. $10 gets 250%
2/ 1,8/ 1,8. $4 gets 200%

The Quads (x2)
1,2,3,5,6,8,10/ 4,5,6,8,9,11,12/ 12/ 1,4,7,8,10. $50 gets 20.41%
1,2,3,5,6,8,10/ 4,5,6,8,9,11,12/ 1,6,10/ 1,4,7,8,10. $50 gets 6.8%

Star Trialler
The Majestic (Race 8 no.9) $2.70
This guy isn’t for the faint of heart having galloped at his only two starts to date.

Prior to that he found himself in the Star Trial file however and since his runs he has returned for another couple of strong trial wins at Shepparton.

He hasn’t been overly impressive time-wise but visually he has more than his fair share of ability and if he can get a decent run through from the second row then he is a huge chance of winning if he stays in gait.

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