Friday, November 15, 2013

Good Form Preview - Gordon Rothacker Medal Night @ TP

Jason's Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Things didn’t pan out quite as I’d hoped last Saturday night with some huge priced horses running into third & spoiling the party for some of our key Money Races but the good news is Im very keen again this weekend and extra eager to make amends at Melton. If I had to pick my favourite bets for the night they would probably be the Formula 2 and Quads below but I’m also keen to play my 2 Best Value options, 1 Best Roughie, and 3 Money Races as well!

Best Bets/ Formula 2 ($90 gets 30 units)
Bon Jovi (Race 1 no. 4) $3.50
This guy is a machine when he’s able to find the front and in one of the weaker M0’s you’ll ever see at Melton he should bully his way to the top and prove almost impossible to roll from there. There is some chance that Franco Jackson (1) won’t hand up the leas but I’m willing to take the punt that he will.
Metro Mike (Race 4 no. 11) $2 TAB Fixed Odds
I know he wasn’t unbelievably impressive winning his heat of this series but I honestly think he’s both a) better from behind and b) a class above his rivals here tonight. As a result I’m thrilled to see him at flip-of-the-coin odds with TAB as I’m confident he’ll start shorter on the Pari-mutuel tonight.
American Muscle (Race 7 no. 6) $2.80
I have waited patiently for this bloke to get another front line draw this campaign and now he’s got one, tonight really does look his night. A blistering beginner, he should be in front within 50m of the start and once he gets there he’ll only need to go as well as his last two starts in the Maryborough Cup and The Legends to lead his rivals a merry dance in this.
Best Value ($20 Each Way)
Pacific Soul (Race 5 no. 9) $9
This guy ALWAYS races his best when afforded a soft peg-line trip where he doesn’t spend a penny and can use his short-sharp sprint in the lane. He looks every chance of getting that ideal run here, particularly if Artoc (1) leads as expected, and given he’s a perpetually underrated animal he should start at juicy Each Way odds in this.
Washmepockets (Race 8 no. 7) $4.50
I’ve got a pretty well worn theory that this guy thrives when drawing wide on the front line in PBD races at Melton. It sounds convoluted but the fact of the matter is, this gate gives him the chance of pressing forward early and if he finds the top mid-race as expected it’ll take a big performance to see them run him down.
Best Roughie ($5 x $25)
Melton Little Max (Race 2 no. 5) $21
I must admit to having a little love affair with this bloke recently but he is rattling home in brilliant sectionals off cold runs and in a race filled with enforcers where most of the talent has drawn the second line they should set up a suitable speed for him to charge into the placings in the lane.
The Money Races
Race 4
As previously mentioned, I’m sticking fat with Metro Mike (11) here while also suggesting that his stablemate Goodtime Jasper (5) should also fill one of the podium placings if he leads early as expected.
11/ 5/ 1,2,4,8. $28 gets 700%
11/ 1,2,4,8/ 5. $22 gets 550%
Race 6
This is a sensational race, which probably has three or four winning hopes, but I’ve isolated it down to My High Expectations (5) and Kyvalley Blur (9). If one of those two win I think I’ve got most of the other bases covered to make something from the F4’s below.
5,9/ 2,3,5,9/ 2,3,5,9/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9. $30 gets 50%
5,9/ 2,3,5,9/ 6,7/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9. $20 gets 33.33%
Race 9
Basil Knight (4) and Maidstone Miss (13) were both impressive winners of their respective heats for this Final and should be fighting out the finish if both stay in gait with Kyvalley Rancher (8) the key hope of splitting them if he gets some luck. Those three horses are HEAD and SHOULDERS above their rivals for talent, but it is a Trot, so we’ll play some savers too.
4,13/ 4,8,13/ 4,8,13. $24 gets 600%
4,13/ 4,8,13/ 3,7. $16 gets 200%
4,13/ 4,8,13/ 9,10,11. $10 gets 83.33%
The Quads (x3)
11/ 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11/ 5,9/ 6. $27 gets 150%
11/ 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11/ 5,9/ 7,9,10,11,12,13. $54 gets 50%
1,2,5,8/ 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11/ 5,9/ 6. $19 gets 29.69%

The Game Plan for Melton with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV)
Best Bet ($100 Win)
(Race 3 No.7 Paparazzi Snapshot) $4.50
This guy really caught the eye earlier in his preparation with two giant performances where he was placed off 50m handicaps. After those runs he was gallant in defeat in the Maryborough Trotters Cup , then made an error in the early stages last start at St Arnaud and never really recovered. If he brings his recent form here he will be very hard to beat.  

Best Value  ($35 Each Way)
(Race 1 No.6 Future Operator) $8.50
This guy is a tough consistent type who did all the work three wide without cover in his last start win at Ballarat where he defeated the smart Suspicious Behavia. In an open race he is one of the leading hopes and represents great value on an each way basis at $8.50. 
Money Races
Race 2 Flexi First 4’s $50
1,2,6,9,/ 10/ 1,2,6,9,11,12/ 1,2,6,9,11,12 $25 gets 31.25%
10/ 1,2,6,9/ 1,2,6,9,11,12/ 1,2,6,9,11,12  $25 gets 31.25% 
Race 4 Flexi First 4’s $50
11/ 1,2,4,5,8/ 1,2,4,5,8/ 1,2,4,5,8 $30 gets 50%
1,2,4,5,8/ 11/ 1,2,4,5,8/ 1,2,4,5,8 $20 gets 33.33%
Race 10 Flexi First 4’s $50
4/ 5/ 1,6/ 1,6 $25 gets 1250%
4/ 1,6/ 5/ 1,6 $25 gets 1250%
Quads (x4)
11/ 3,4,9,10,11/ 5,9/ 6 $25 gets 250%
2,4,5,8/ 3,4,9,10,11/ 5,9/ 6 $25 gets 50%
11/ 3,4,9,10,11/ 5,9/ 7,10,11,13 $25 gets 62.50%
2,4,5,8/ 3,4,9,10,11/ 5,9/ 7,10,11,13 $25 gets 15.63%


To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Broadways Best: 1:52.82
Fastest Last Half – Mister Sheedy: 55.45secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Smudge Bromac: 26.77secs
Sectional Superstar 
Our Nancy Miles (Race 4 no.8) $12
Although this girl didn't feature in the first four in her heat, she had to contend with the extreme draw and was very good running home in the fastest last half of the race.
Tonight she has the pegline draw and if Timeless Era can hold the front she comes right into the race as a winning chance, if not she can still do some damage from three back on the pegs.  

Tabcorp Park Melton Trainer Talk – Emma Stewart 

Best Chance

Metro Mike (Race 4 no.11) $1.90

“We've been really happy with how he is going at the minute and even though he has the worst draw over the mile i'd still consider him our best hope in the race and probably for the entire night.
"If he gets the right run in transit he will be very hard to hold out."


Goodtime Jasper (Race 4 no.5) $6.50

“The draw doesn't look ideal on paper but one thing he does have is good gate speed so if he can get across them early that will give him his best winning chance in a pretty even race."

Mister Sheedy (Race 5 no.6) $12

“He's been a little disappointing, he's certainly not my favourite horse but he does have ability and there looks to be plenty of speed drawn inside him. He is another that can feature with the right run.

Braveheart Stride (Race 8 no.8) $6
"He is super honest and consistent and hopefully the barrier won't work out to be too much of an issue for him. He is getting fitter all the time and he should be just about spot on for this."
Speed Maps

Race 1

FRANCO JACKSON (1) and BON JOVI (4) are the best beginners off the front line here and should engage in a short duel for the lead, but expect the latter horse to win that early war. If that scenario prevails then BELLASARIO (8) is likely to race three back the inside with GLENFERRIE RUSTLER (7) as good a chance as any to occupy the chair and WHAT A FINE FELLA (11) arguably the most dangerous of several late closers along with PAINTBALL (9) and FUTURE OPERATOR (6).

Race 2

This race boasts a front line without any real flyers although DUSTY SMILES (3) does leave pretty well and should go in search of the early lead. If she does get there she may try and hold the top but there’ll be pressure from everywhere with the three Peter Manning-trained runners in GARABALDI UNION (2), BOYZ TORQUE (6) and VALENTINO RUSTLER (12)  all known enforcers who should ensure the race is run at a genuine pace. FRANK THE DUCK (1) left slowly from this gate in his heat last week but should lob handier here while STUCK IN SECOND (10) and EASY LIGHTNING (11) can make mid-race moves or come with sweeping runs and GOLDEN GRINDER (9) will need luck from three back the poles.

Race 3

As always, these stand start trotting races are very difficult to map but the one thing we can almost rely upon is that GAZOLINE (5) will be desperate to find the lead. We can also predict that IMAGUNADOGOOD (3) and POSIMISTIC (4) will look for economical on-pace runs while horses like PAPARAZZI SNAPSHOT (7) and BRYLIN CRESCENT (9) will be hoping to push forward early and also race handy in transit. RETAINED (8) is another who’d love to lob the lead or the breeze while BRIEF GLANCE (10) will be hoping to outclass his rivals from well back in the run.

Race 4

In a front line surprisingly devoid of any blistering speed GOODTIME JASPER (5) is heavily fancied to spear across and find the early lead with TIMELESS ERA (1) a great chance of kicking through to trail him in transit. That could potentially leave grinding mare OUR NANCY MILES (8) hamstrung three back the poles and with no real chair horse engaged METRO MIKE (11) may take the invitation to whip around and occupy the breeze or even cross the stablemate GOODTIME JASPER (5) mid-race. The rest will need luck as they are virtually all sit-sprinters in a race of questionable pressure.

Race 5

ARTOC (1), DOMINUS VOBISCUM (2) and MISTER SHEEDY (6) can all begin swiftly off the mobile arm but expect ARTOC (1) to be driven very aggressively in a bid to hold his rivals wide. If he does hold them out then PACIFIC SOUL (9) looks a wonderful chance of slotting into his favourite spot behind the leader with STYLISH JASPER (11) also a big chance of ducking back to the pegs. Expect ALCHEMY (10) to get on his bike at some point while LOVABLE LARRIKIN (3) and SAVESOMTIMETODREAM (4) will probably go back at the start and try to overwhelm their rivals late.

Race 6

There should be a terrific early battle for the lead here between KASYANOV (1) and COLD SISTER (3) which may well shape how the race is run. If COLD SISTER (3) crosses as many expect then she should hand over to stablemate MY HIGH EXPECTATIONS (5), leaving MISTER ZION (2) do the bullocking work and KYVALLEY BLUR (9) needing to make his own luck late. If KASYANOV (1) holds the top then the race will be run at a significantly faster clip, suiting KYVALLEY BLUR (9) and fellow late closer I SEE ICY EARL (6) much, much more.

Race 7

All of the early speed is drawn wide on the front line here in the form of sizzling beginner AMERICAN MUSCLE (6) and similarly quick starter THE PHANTOM (7) drawn outside him. Expect AMERICAN MUSCLE (6) to pretty easily find the front with any of several horses on his inside headed by UNCLE WINGNUT (4) capable of lobbing his back early on. IM CORZIN TERROR (11) appears most likely of the classy second line runners to make a mid-race move while CUT FOR AN ACE (10), WARTIME SWEETHEART (13) and several others will need gun steers and a healthy slice of luck to feature in the finish.

Race 8

There’s actually more speed off the front line here than you might expect with PETE OF PAN (1), JAYDENS CASTLE (5) and WASHMEPOCKETS (7) all capable of beginning very quickly. Expect JAYDENS CASTLE (5) to spear across then early before eventually handing over to WASHMEPOCKETS (7) if that horse gets there quickly enough. COWBOY CADILLAC (3) should look to make use of the front line draw by racing handy in transit while BRAVEHEART STRIDE (8) is some hope of playing enforcer if he gets off the pegs pretty quickly. THATS MISTER ALI (12), JUKEBOX MUSIC (11) and GIVITANAME (9) are all dangerous late closers who can feature with a slice of luck in transit.

Race 9

Most of the front line runners here can begin quickly enough but if there was one likely leader it would probably be BALLAN ROAD (3). If BASIL KNIGHT (4) begins well enough he may just keep on rolling until he finds the lead but he’s just as likely to be jagged and come with one late runner along with fellow class commodity MAIDSTONE MISS (13) tonight. The other class runner here in KYVALLEY RANCHER (8) will be doing everything possible to extricate off the pegs from his inside back lien draw while the rest will need luck to figure at the knock.

Race 10

In such a small field, any early speed battles should not mean a lot but whoever holds the early lead should be more than happy to hand that advantage to CHILLI PALMER (4) if Puppet so desires. The worst beginner engaged is NIMBLE JACK (5) so expect him to settle at the rear with the rest all close enough to feature if they are good enough.

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