Thursday, January 31, 2013

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night at Melton

THE GAME PLAN for Melton – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

The Money Races

Race 2
Black Caprice and Real Performer resume from breaks here but they have both had recent trials to fit them for this assignment and they do look to have a class edge on their rivals so I’m going to anchor the pair in trifectas.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

7,8/ 7,8/ 2,3,4,5,6. $70 gets you 700%
7,8/ 2,3,4,5,6/ 7,8. $30 gets you 300%

Race 5
Askmehow is a handy filly and is definitely the one to beat in this but she will have to earn it from the back row draw so I’m going to err on the side of caution and take two trifectas, one with her to win and another with her to go under.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

10/ 4,6,7,11/ 1,2,4,6,7,8,11.  $50 gets you 208.33%
4,6,7,11/ 10/ 1,2,4,6,7,8,11.  $50 gets you 208.33%  

Quaddies x2 $100 Total Outlay
1,2,3,7,8/ 10/ 1,2,3,6,8,9,10/ 3,6,7,8.  $50 gets you 35.71%
1,2,3,7,8/ 4,6,7,11/ 1,2,3,6,8,9,10/ 3,6,7,8.  $50 gets you 8.92%

Good Form Preview - Home of the Trotter

THE GAME PLAN for Maryborough – with Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

The Money Races

Race 3
Miz Lulabell Lombo is the class factor here and has trialled well at Bendigo for her first up run with Ruby Slippers, Shesallyank and Art Of Love her only dangers so I’m going to play trifectas with that quartet.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

5/ 2,3,4/ 2,3,4. $70 gets you 1166.66%
2,3,4/ 5/ 2,3,4. $30 gets you 500%

Race 4
Classy mare Bettor Believe It faces a big drop in grade here and should be much too good for her rivals with the talented Fairest One Youare a clear second pick so I’m going to base my trifecta around the pair.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

6/ 8/ 1,3,4,5,7.  $100 gets you 2000%

6/ 3,5,6,8/ 3,11,12/ 2,3,4,6,9,10.  $100 gets you 138.88%

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Good Form Preview - Dalvui Raceway Terang

THE GAME PLAN for Terang – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Bet

Keayang Left Hook (Race 1 no. 9) $2.70
This guy had no luck in a heat of the Victoria Derby at Melton last Saturday night behind Guaranteed when copping a bad check but his form prior reads very well for a race of this nature, including a gallant third to Derby heat winner Macha at Hamilton two runs ago.  He takes on some handy opposition and will have to do some work in the run from where he is drawn but he shows promise and this looks a great race for him to bust his maiden.

Best Value Bet

Shalackin (Race 6 no. 3) $5
Didn’t do much in two runs back from a break before showing good improvement at Hamilton last start when third to Ymbro Toto where she found the line nicely from well back in a slippery last quarter.  She draws much better this time around, looks a great chance of finding the pegs first and Rod Petroff will give her every chance thereafter.

The Money Races

Race 4
Quality 4YO Western Rockstar looks the best of good things here with Signs And Wonders a clear second pick in my opinion despite the car park draw so I’m going to base some trifectas around the pair.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

6/ 7/ 2,8,10. $50 gets you 1666.66%
6/ 2,8,10/ 7. $50 gets you 1666.66%

Race 5
There is no doubt that Keayang Steamer is the one to beat here, but the combination of a back row draw plus the fact he is first up without a trial has persuaded me to err on the side of caution so I’m going to play the below trifectas around him for $100 total spend.

10/ 1,3,7/ 1,2,3,5,7.  $70 gets you 583.33%
1,3,7/ 10/ 1,2,3,5,7.  $30 gets you 250%

Quaddies x2 $100 Outlay
6/ 10/ 3,4,8,9/ 1,4,5,8.  $60 gets you 375%
6/ 1,3,7/ 3,4,8,9/ 1,4,5,8.  $40 gets you 83.33%

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Quest

THE GAME PLAN for Shepparton – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Bets

No No No No No (Race 1 no. 5) $2.20
This guy strikes a very winnable race first up and has had the benefit of three recent trials on this track to fit him for this assignment.  He isn’t a brilliant beginner but should muster enough early to keep in front of his main rival Im Jensen and may even work to the lead, which would see him nigh on impossible to run down.

La Pucelle (Race 4 no. 5) $1.80
She shows plenty of potential, having won 5 of her 6 outings and today she is after 4 on the bounce after bringing up the hat trick here last start in 1:56.3 for this journey.  She may have to sit outside of main danger Loose Wire and this won’t be a pushover for her but her class should prevail.

Best Value Bet

Magic Moment Lombo (Race 6 no. 5) $11
Lombo winner from last season who was put away after failing in heats of the Breeders Crown behind Im Smouldering and Just A Bit Sassy and she looks ready to go today after trialling well on this circuit last Thursday.  She meets a few handy ones first up but does have the barrier draw advantage over her more-fancied rivals and I think she has a terrific each way chance.

The Money Race

Race 4
Looks a tricky day for those who like taking the exotics but I think this is the race to target with La Pucelle clearly the testing material and Loose Wire her only real danger so I’m going to base some trifectas around that pair.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

5/ 2/ Field. $60 gets you 1000%
5/ 3,4,8/ 2. $20 gets you 666.66%
2/ 5/ Field. $20 gets you 333.33%

Quaddies x2 $100 Outlay
5/ 4,5,8,10,11/ 5,7,9,10,11/ 1,2,5,6,8,12.  $80 gets you 53.33%
2/ 4,5,8,10,11/ 5,7,9,10,11/ 1,2,5,6,8,12.  $20 gets you 13.33%

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Good Form Preview - Lords Raceway

THE GAME PLAN for Bendigo – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

The Money Races
Race 3
Rogers Joy and Exotic Native look much better than their opposition and really should run the quinella but I don’t think it will pay too much so I’m searching for a bit of value with the below trifecta for $100 total spend.

2,6/ 2,6/ 1,3,5,7,9.  $100 gets you 1000% 
Race 5
The Ole Buckaroo looks well-placed here second up from the ideal draw with his main danger Patrique likely to trail him or at worst end up three back the pegs so I’m going to base some trifectas around the pair.  I’ll also include Im George W in a saver as I think he is the blowout.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.  

2/ 1/ 3,9,10,11.  $40 gets you 1000%
2/ 3,9,10,11/ 1.  $40 gets you 1000%
1,10/ 2/ 1,3,9,10,11.  $20 gets you 250%

Race 8
Im Smouldering and Must Be Nice are clearly the top two here with Fearless leader the knockout as he will get a cheap run on the pegs and wasn’t bad at Ballarat last time so I’m going to play safe and box the trio up in a flexi trifecta for $100 total spend.

(1,4,8)  $100 gets you 1666.66%

Quaddies x 2 $100 Total Spend
3,4/ 2/ 2,3,4,5,8,9/ 1,2,6,7,9,10.  $50 gets you 69.44%
3,4/ 1,10/ 2,3,4,5,8,9/ 1,2,6,7,9,10.  $50 gets you 34.72%

Monday, January 28, 2013

Good Form Apologises

The Good Form team apologise for not posting a preview of today's Yarra Valley card but assures punters the blog will be back on-line tomorrow with Sectional Splits, Game Plans, Star Triallers and Black Bookers tomorrow.

Good Form will also deliver its biggest & best blog EVER for Saturday night's A G Hunter Cup card @ Melton's Tabcorp Park.

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Good Form Preview - Ouyen Cup Day

THE GAME PLAN for Ouyen – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

The Money Races

Race 4
Aldebaran Bluechip and Girls Town should be leader/behind leader here and look a moral to run the quinella so you can take that as many times as you like but I’m searching for a bit more value by playing the below trifecta for $100 total spend.  

1,3/ 1,3/ 7,9,10,11.  $100 gets you 1250% 

Race 5
Illawong Travel, Lord Coburn and Mister Applegate were clearly the standout runs in heats of this final at Swan Hill and Mildura and they should dominate today so I’m going to base some first fours around that trio.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.  

3,4,5/ 3,4,5/ 3,4,5/ 1,2,6,9.  $60 gets you 250%
3,4,5/ 3,4,5/ 1,2,6,9/ 3,4,5.  $40 gets you 166.66%

Race 6
The Shayne Cramp duo of Justalittleloose and Ima Grumpy Jasper look to have the wood on their rivals even though they both draw awkwardly over the sprint trip so I’m going to base some trifectas around the pair.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

5,9/ 5,9/ 1,3,4,6,10.  $50 gets you 500%
5,9/ 1,3,4,6,10/ 5,9.  $50 gets you 500%

Race 8
Modern Velocity looks the absolute best bet of the day with Nickys Christian a clear second pick so if you want to hammer that exacta I doubt you’ll miss but I’m searching for a bit more value with One Dog One Bone a big chance of running third so with that in mind I’m going to take one straight trifecta with that trio and another with the remaining place chances.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

1/ 3/ 7.  $40 gets you 4000%
1/ 3/ 2,4,5,6,10,11.  $60 gets you 1000%

1,3/ 3,4,5/ 5,9/ 2,3,4,7,10,11,13.  $100 gets you 238.09%

BLACKBOOKER (Racing Today)

Arber (Race 7 no. 7) $5.50 TAB Fixed Odds
This guy can be a little hard to catch but he did run a cracking race in the Hamilton Cup last time when third to Our Arlington where he flashed home late in slick sectionals and if John Caldow can produce him at the right time today he will be hard to hold out.

BLACKBOOKER (Melton Last Night)

Chuck Wagon
Made an early move in search of the death seat but was given the ‘big don’t argue’ by Nathan Jack on Prettylilangeleyes so he was forced to sit three-deep the remainder and did a terrific job to run second to Monsieur Deville who had the last shot at him.  He is an honest trotter who doesn’t win out of turn but showed with last night’s gutsy performance that another victory is not far away.

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Good Form Preview - Aussie Day @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

The Money Races
Race 5
This should be a competitive Derby heat with Lennytheshark and Flaming Flutter looking to have an edge over their rivals in my opinion and I’m going to base some trifectas around the pair.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.
2,11/ 2,11/ 3,4,5,9.  $50 gets you 625%  2,11/ 3,4,5,9/ 2,11.  $50 gets you 625%
Race 7
I’ve been really taken by what I’ve seen of Ohoka Punter across the Tasman this season and despite the wide draw I think he has a terrific chance of taking this out so I’m going to anchor him to win or run second in a couple of trifectas.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.
7/ 3,4,5,12/ 3,4,5,12.  $60 gets you 500% 3,4,5/ 7/ 3,4,5,12.  $40 gets you 444.44%
10/ 2,11/ 2/ 3,4,5,7.  $100 gets you 1250%
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Value

Lively Princess (Race 8 no. 10) $5
This is the final pacing race of the night and by far the best one on which to make a killing. Nats Survival (3) is almost certainly the leader here and the horse they have to beat but she’s likely to be a red figure favourite while Lively Princess (10) is marked at $5 and is probably going even better. Last start she would almost certainly have beaten Nats Survival (3) with clear running and while the poor draw and short trip won’t help I just think she’ll mow the favourite down.

Best Quinella

Race 8

Nats Survival (3) & Lively Princess (8)
This is THE bet of the night for those wanting to have just one crack. Nothing complex here that we haven’t outlined above. Put simply, these are the best two horses in the race by a fair way and while the dividend won’t be huge, I see it as an ALMOST guaranteed win. You can also play Trifectas & First 4’s with these two to runs first & second.

Best Roughies

Pete Of Pan (Race 2 no. 4) $15
A brilliant beginner from the mobile start, this guy should be in front within 50m of the start. He is more than likely to look for a suitable horse to sit on thereafter and if things fall into place for him he is a massive place hope and may even be worth a very small bet to blouse his rivals at odds.

Echeveria (Race 5 no. 5) $16/$3.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
Put simply, I have big doubts about the NSW form heading into this Vic Derby and actually think the first three horses’ home will be the same as the SA Derby. This bloke ran third in that race, making ground on Flaming Flutter (11) & Lennytheshark (2) all the way to the wire. The draw is awkward here but if he lobs a spot the $21 is massive value indeed.

Quaddies (x2)
10/ 11/ 2/ 3,4,7. $48 gets 1600%10/ 2,5/ 2/ 3,4,7. $52 gets 866.67%

Bill Hutchison (@Hutchysays)
Best Bet
Michael Thomas (Race 3 no. 3) $2.70
Lightly raced 6YO who has beaten better than these in the past and looks the absolute special of the night.
Best Value
Lennytheshark (Race 5 no. 2) $3.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
He was forced to sit outside Flaming Flutter (11) in the SA Derby last start yet was still taking ground of him most of the way up the straight. He should stay in front of his main danger here and can certainly reverse the decision this time as a result.
Best Roughies
Dodge The Bullet (Race 1 no. 5) $10
Ran a big race when wide to the breeze and second here a fortnight ago. he looks a terrific value bet to kick off the card.
My Hard Copy (Race 7 no. 2) $15 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
The four Kiwi invaders (3,4,5,& 7) look to have this between them but I have been impressed by this ex-Kiwi performer who draws to cause an upset at terrific value tonight.
Money Race
Race 2
Class should prevail here so box up the better-class Claimers drawn the second line and throw in Luv Tha Aces Lombo form what will end up being the pole.
Box Tri: 2,9,10,12,13. $60 gets 250%.
10/ 2,4,11/ 2/3 ,4,5,7. $60 gets 500%.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Good Form Preview - Ballarat Cup Night

The Game Plans for Ballarat Cup Night

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

Best Value

Decorated Jasper (Race 8 no. 8) $13 / $2.30 TAB Fixed Odds
There is no doubt that Sushi Sushi is the one to beat from the beaut draw but I think he is a little bit vulnerable, particularly over the last 100m so with that in mind I think this guy has a terrific each way chance.  His form reads well for this, having beaten Mach Alert in the Casey Classic at Melton four back, Melpark Major in the Coca Cola Cup here three runs ago and his last two behind Melpark Major in the Hamilton Cup and Sushi Sushi in the Bendigo Cup have been outstanding.  He should be coiled up behind Sushi Sushi from his trailing draw and with the right luck in the straight I think he will be mighty hard to hold off.

The Money Race

Race 8
As mentioned above Sushi Sushi holds all the aces from the pole but I don’t think he is past the post and I’m giving Mach Alert, Decorated Jasper, Mah Sish and Smoken Up chances of knocking him off so I’m going to attack the race with some trifectas and first fours in the hope of snaring some value.  Below is how I’m playing with $200 total spend.

Trifecta: 1/ 3,8,9,12/ 3,4,7,8,9,11,12.  $50 gets you 200% 
Trifecta: 3,8,9,12/ 1/ 3,4,7,8,9,11,12.  $50 gets you 200%
First Four: 1/ 3,8,9,12/ 3,4,7,8,9,11,12/ Field.  $50 gets you 26.04%
First Four: 3,8,9,12/ 1/ 3,4,7,8,9,11,12/ Field.  $50 gets you 26.04%

3,5,6/ 1,3,4,5,8,10/ 1,6,7/ 1,3,8,9,12.  $100 gets you 37.03%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value

Fearless Leader (Race 1 no. 9) $3This bloke has some real high speed at his disposal and also doesn’t mind doing his fair share of work. He has gone from strength to strength of recent times and despite the second row draw, could actually lob in front of his major danger It Is Billy (4) in transit. He’s no moral but at $3 looks more than juicy enough for me to get involved.

Best Roughies

McArdle Lassie (Race 5 no.7) $11Adrian Preston has breathed a new lease of life into this five-year-old mare in recent weeks. She possesses a devastating turn of foot and with plenty of early speed likely here, she looks extremely tempting if anything close to the $11 she’s quoted at in today’s Herald Sun.

Smokin Joker (Race 7 no. 8) $34This guy is a bona fide veteran but he has plenty of talent at his best and seems to be racing as well as ever right now. Even more importantly, he is drawn behind certain leader Real Hammer (1) and should secure the ideal trip. There’s no Sprint Lane here but he doesn’t like them anyway and should be backed PLACE ONLY at what should be massive odds.

Money Races

Race 1
This is probably the best betting race of the night. That’s because the two best pacers engaged, Fearless Leader (9) & It Is Billy (4) have precious few convictions so it would be a big shock if either missed the placings. Play as I have below for a $100 outlay.
4,9/ 4,9/ 2,3,5,8,11. $75 gets 750%.4,9/ 2,3,5,8,11/ 4,9. $25 gets 250%.

Race 7There are two reasons I like this race as a betting proposition. The first is that I sense Real Hammer (1) will start shorter than he’s entitled to and the second is that I reckon Smokin Joker (8) can snatch a place and ass heaps of value to exotics. See below for my strategy.

1,6,7/ 1,6,7,8/ 1,6,7,8. $72 gets 400%.1,6,7/ 1,6,7,8/ 5,10. $18 gets 100%.

3,6,7,9/ 1,2,3,4,5,10,12,13/1,6,7/ 1,3,8,9. 
$100 gets 26.04%.

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night at Echuca

THE GAME PLAN for Echuca – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Bets

Soho Eastwood (Race 1 no. 9) $2
This guy is yet to win in 13 starts but he has been mixing it with the likes of Ginger Bliss, Artique and Truman of late and with the significant drop back in class tonight he should breakthrough.

I Know The Rules (Race 2 no. 1) $2
Ran a bold race at Cranbourne 9 days ago where he ran the gate in 26.4 to lead and did a great job to hang onto fourth behind Real Grit at his first run back from a break.  He will be fitter, draws to lead once more and will be nigh on impossible to gun down.

Our Walden Bury (Race 5 no. 2) $2.60
Comes off a fast-finishing third to Daylight Dan in a heat of the Central Victorian Pacing Championship at Charlton two weeks ago and with the return to the mobile from a decent draw for a change he is sure to be hard to beat.

The Money Race

Race 2
I’m pretty keen on I Know The Rules to get the cash in Race 2 tonight with Chiquita Bromac and Mosquito Zephyr looking almost certain to fill the placings behind that fellow so I’m going to take the below exotics for $100 total spend.

Trifecta: 1/ 2/ 7. $50 gets you 5000%
First Four: 1/ 2/ 7/ 3,5,6,8,9,10,11.  $50 gets you 714.28%

Quaddies x2 $100 outlay
1,3,4,7,8/ 2/ 4/ 1,2,3,4,7.  $50 gets you 200%
1,3,4,7,8/ 1,5,7,10/ 4/ 1,2,3,4,7.  $50 gets you 50%

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Kilmore

THE GAME PLAN for Kilmore – with Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

Best Bet
Chevaux Rainbow (Race 2 no. 5) $1.70
Winless in 7 goes this time in but she has her hoof right on the till after finishing runner-up behind Waikare Patricia, Flying Maori and Katmandonny at her past three and with the lead or at worst the breeze hers for the taking today looks to be her day.

Value Bets
Pass It To Billy (Race 5 no. 11) $3.50
Has been solid in three runs since coming from Queensland, the latest of those on this track last week when third to Loose Wire in good time and although the draw isn’t ideal this looks a great race for him.

Dam Lucky (Race 6 no. 4) $3.50
Comes off a C0 series at Bendigo where he was close up behind Illawong Travel in his heat before running a nice race in the final behind The Noble Steed with both of those horses going on to run big races since.  He will find this race easier and looks a good gamble in an open contest.

Glenferrie Park (Race 8 no. 10) $3.50
Got decked shortly after the start on debut at Ballarat 8 days ago and he did a great job to finish as close to Lotsa Life as he did.  He had been trialling well prior and with better luck today he can go close.

2,3,4,5/ 5,10,11/ 3,4,6,8/ 6,9.  $100 gets you 104.16%


Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Good Form Preview - Wednesday night in the Grampians

THE GAME PLAN for Ararat – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

It’s quite a tricky little program tonight with no real stand out bets or races to play exotics in so I’ve come up with a few horses that should be reasonable odds to have something on instead.

One Track Mind (Race 2 no. 3) $2.70
Hasn’t done a great deal in 7 runs since leading all-the-way at Bendigo back in October last year but this looks a great race for her as she should lead comfortably and take plenty of running down over the short course. 

Scully Magic (Race 4 no. 8) $4
Comes off a C0 series at Charlton and Bendigo where he ran handy races behind The Noble Steed in both heat and final, which is great form for a race of this nature and if Gavin Lang can weave some magic from the awkward draw he is sure to be hard to beat. 

Mr McArdle (Race 5 no. 4) $3.50
Looked the winner at Kilmore last time but was just touched off by a sprint laning Loose Wire in solid time and this handy former Kiwi 4YO looks well-placed to go one better tonight from the advantageous draw. 

Whata Punt (Race 6 no. 2) $2.70
Comes off a super Hamilton win first up from a break where he finished off strongly to get the cash in 1:56.1 and with that effort sure to benefit him greatly I think he has a great chance of knocking off The Noble Steed, who is likely to run favourite. 

Princeofthieves (Race 7 no. 7) $3.50
Resumed from a lengthy break at Melton 19 days ago with a solid third to Our Barney Rubble in M0 company where he sat parked and fought on well in the straight.  He will be sharper and although he has the poor draw plus Amajorjo to deal with I think he is in with a shot at causing a mini boilover. 

6,8,11/ 1,4,6,7/ 1,2/ 1,2,7.  $100 gets you 138.88%

Good Form Preview - Home of the Trotter

THE GAME PLAN for Maryborough – with Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

The Money Races

Race 4
Cromac Jamie hasn’t had much go right for him this campaign but today he comes up with the right draw in the right race and he should take beating with Western Rockstar and Our Horizon his only dangers so I’m playing trifectas around that trio.  Below is how I’m investing with $100 total spend.

3/ 1,5/ 1,5.  $40 gets you 2000%
3/ 1,5/ 2,4,6,8,9.  $30 gets you 400%
1,5/ 3/ 1,5.  $20 gets you 1000%
1,5/ 3/ 2,4,6,8,9.  $10 gets you 100%

Race 5
Kotare Roland should get the gun run behind American Muscle here and be too good with Mister Sheedy sitting in the breeze and that trio look a great straight trifecta so I’m throwing caution to the wind and hammering it 100 times.

8/ 1/ 6.  $100 gets you 10000%

Quaddies (x2) $100 Outlay

3/ 8/ 1,2,4,8,10,12/ 2,3,4,5.  $50 gets you 208.33%
1,5/ 8/ 1,2,4,8,10,12/ 2,3,4,5.  $50 gets you 104.16%

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Good Form Preview - Sunny Sunraysia Tuesday

THE GAME PLAN for Mildura – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

The Money Races

Race 2
Imtheguy is one of a stack of key runners for Shayne Cramp tonight and he looks the one to beat here with Xbolt his main danger so I’m going to play some trifectas around the pair.  Below is how I’m investing with $100 total spend.

9/ 4/ 3,6,7.  $40 gets you 1333.33%
9/ 3,6,7/ 4.  $40 gets you 1333.33%
4/ 9/ 3,6,7.  $20 gets you 666.66%

Race 4
The Shayne Cramp juggernaut looks set to roll on here with quality mare Art Shadow looking the testing material with Our Flyin Jazz her main threat so I’m basing some trifectas around them.  Below is how I’m investing with $100 total spend.

2/ 3/ 4,5,6.  $40 gets you 1333.33%
2/ 4,5,6/ 3.  $40 gets you 1333.33%
3/ 2/ 4,5,6.  $20 gets you 666.66%

Race 6
You would think Huchi Fella should do enough early to hold the lead from the pole and that will give Stilltickingover the gun run on his back so with that in mind I’m playing trifectas around them.  Below is how I’m investing with $100 total spend.

1/ 7/ 2,3,4.  $50 gets you 1666.66%
1/ 2,3,4/ 7.  $50 gets you 1666.66%

Quaddies (x4) $100 Outlay
2/ 1/ 1/ 1,2,8,9.  $35 gets you 875%
2/ 4,6/ 1/ 1,2,8,9.  $35 gets you 437.5%
3,4,5/ 1/ 1/ 1,2,8,9.  $15 gets you 125%
3,4,5/ 4,6/ 1/ 1,2,8,9.  $15 gets you 62.5%

Monday, January 21, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Warragul

The Game Plan for Warragul – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bet

Major Calipso (Race 5 no. 9) $2.20
This guy is struggling to break through for a win but his recent form has been very good nevertheless and in a race with few winning chances I think his class will be the difference today. I’m also going to make him the focal point of multiples in one of the Money Races below.

The Money Races

Race 5
As mentioned above, I think Major Calipso (9) packs a few too many guns, particularly as he follows out a fast beginner (Luke Hobbs) from the second line to offset his seemingly awkward draw. The only conceivable dangers are Big Bang Penny (5) and Lombo Kotakinabalu (7) so package them up into a range of multiple options and I’m very confident you’ll get a result.

9/ 5,7/ 5,7. $50 gets 2500%.
9/ 5,7/ 2,4,8. $18 gets 300%.
5,7/ 9/ 5,7. $25 gets 1250%.
5,7/9/ 2,4,8. $7 gets 116.66%.

Race 7
This looks a classically peg-dominated event where Chanels Charm (2) (Leader), Lombo Ranmiles (Behind Leader) and Ashira Bromac (8) (Three Pegs) should dominate. Play around with that theory if you like but I’m going to attack in the below manner.

2/ 1,8/ 1,8. $40 gets 2000%.
2/1,8/ 9. $20 gets 1000%.
2/ 1,8/ 4,5. $20 gets 500%.
1/ 2/ 8. $10 gets 1000%.
1/2/ 9. $5 gets 500%.
1/ 2/ 4,5. $5 gets 250%.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Good Form Preview - Central Vic Champs

THE GAME PLAN for Boort @ Charlton – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Bets

Our Call Of Duty (Race 3 no. 6) $1.70
Made his Aussie debut in a heat of the Central Victorian Pacing Championship at Maryborough last Monday and after finding some trouble he finished out the back behind Restrepo but wasn’t disgraced.  He is sure to find today’s assignment much more suitable and should be too good.

Conflict Of Interest (Race 4 no. 1) $2.00
Not much went right for this bloke at Bendigo last start when down the track behind Real Hammer but he did win well at Horsham prior and he will get all the favours today from the ace alley as Glenn Douglas can either hold the front with him or take a trail on Saint Petersburg and utilise the sprint lane.  Whatever role he is in I think he’ll be too strong.

Kyvalley Rap (Race 5 no. 1) $2.00
The scratching of Sunset Invasion has almost gifted this guy the race, as he should begin well enough to hold the lead from the pole draw and the way he has won at his two goes this time in suggests his rivals will have a devil of a time mowing him down.

Best Place Bet

Ballochbuie (Race 7 no. 3) $2.37 TAB Fixed Odds
Restrepo looks virtually past the post but this fellow did beat him in a heat of this series at Maryborough last start where he led from this barrier and slipped home in 55.2 so with the likelihood of him getting the front once more today I think he has a terrific place chance.  Might be worth having something small the win on him too as a saver in the Quaddie, I’m going to.

Quaddies (x4) $100 Outlay
1/ 1/ 7/ 13.  $35 gets you 3500%
1/ 4,10,11/ 7/ 13.  $35 gets you 1166.66%
4,7/ 1/ 7/ 13.  $15 gets you 750%
4,7/ 4,10,11/ 7/ 13.  $15 gets you 250%


Saturday, January 19, 2013

Good Form Preview - Shepparton Cup Night

THE GAME PLANS for Shepparton Cup Night

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)


There will be short-priced favourites in most races tonight and I do think the majority of them will win but rather than backing them all straight out or having a big all-up I’m going to take some trifectas in the pursuit of some value.  I’m going to outlay $50 on each of the races below for a total spend of $400.

Race 1
1/ 3,5,8,11/ 3,4,5,8,9,11,12.  $50 gets you 208.33%

Race 2
4/ 3,8/ 2,3,5,8,10,11,12/  $50 gets you 416.66%

Race 3
5/ 2/ 3,4,6,10,12.  $25 gets you 500%
5/ 3,4,6,10,12/ 2.  $25 gets you 500%

Race 5
3/ 10/ 1,4,6,9.  $25 gets you 625%
3/ 1,4,6,9/ 10.  $25 gets you 625%

Race 6
10/ 2/ 1,4,5,6,8,9.  $50 gets you 833.33%

Race 8
11/ 3,9,10/ 2,3,6,7,8,9,10.  $25 gets you 138.88%
3,9,10/ 11/ 2,3,6,7,8,9,10.  $25 gets you 138.88%

Race 9
4/ 1/ 2,5,6,7,8,9,10.  $50 gets you 714.28%

Race 10
1,6/ 1,6/ 4,8,9,10,12.  $50 gets you 500%

Quaddies (x4) $100 Outlay

1,3,6,10/ 3/ 10/ 1.  $35 gets you 875%
1,3,6,10/ 3/ 10/ 4,9,11,12,13.  $35 gets you 175%
2,7,8/ 3/ 10/ 1.  $15 gets you 500%
2,7,8/ 3/ 10/ 4,9,11,12,13.  $15 gets you 100%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Tonight’s Shepparton Cup card is littered with very short priced favourites and the fact of the matter is almost all of them are very likely to win. That means if we’re going to make a dollar out of the night we’ve got to play exotics – skinny exotics. Personally, I love these meetings and I’m very keen to play but first there is one value runner for the night I’m confident can win.

Best Value

The Ragpickers Dream (Race 4 no. 6) $7.50
A winner of 12 from 30 races who has three metropolitan class successes to his name despite his M1 assessment this guy also finished fourth in last season’s 4YO Bonanza beating home horses like Our Arlington, Devilish Smile, Saint Flash and Royal Verdict. He will not lead tonight as American Muscle (3) is a living certainty to take up that role but he’s a quick beginner who’ll be in the firing line throughout and is in the kind of form that should see him half his $7.50 quote in today’s Herald Sun.

Money Races

Race 2
I always love punting on Finals and this race is no different. I’m taking a very cavalier approach but simply put, My Hard Copy (4) looks better than his rivals despite failing in his heat of this race while Minti Choice (3) & Royal Hustler (8) appear certain to fill the placings.
4/ 3,8/ 3,8. $65 gets 3250%.
4/ 3,8/ 2,5,6,9,10,11,12. $35 gets 250%.

Race 3
This is another Final, the $25K Lombo decider for 2YO fillies and Tallulah Bay (5)  has the race on toast. Similarly it would seem there are very limited place hopes so play as outlined below and you should walk away with a profit.
5/ 2,4/ 2,4,12. $70 gets 1750%.
5/ 2,4/ 6,10. $20 gets 500%.
5/ 12/ 2,4. $10 gets 500%.

Race 4
As outlined above I’m keen on The Ragpickers Dream (6) in this race, but more importantly perhaps I see American Muscle (3) as his only danger and also sense there are limited chances to even run a drum. Below is my plan for the race.
3,6/ 1,2,3,6,8,10/ 1,2,3,6,8,10. $80 gets 200%.
3,6/ 1,2,3,6,8,10/ 9,12. $10 gets 100%.

Race 6
Im Corzin Terror (10) is on the fast track to much better races than this while Teo Enteo (2) is also on his way to far stronger events. They are almost certain to finish one-two in that order here but as is the theme, we will have a saver in case of unforeseen difficulties.
10/ 2/ 1,8,9. $60 gets 2000%.
10/ 1,8,9/ 2. $30 gets 1000%.
Quaddies (x2)
3,6/ 3/ 10/  1,3,4,7,8,9,12,13. $64 gets 400%.
3,6/ 1,4,6,10/ 10/ 1,3,4,7,8,9,12,13. $36 gets 56.25%.

Bill Hutchison (@Hutchysays)

With quite a few short priced favourites tonight we'll look for a bit of value, so I'm going to look at the shorties who are probably a shade toogood and the ones we may want to pot.

The (almost) good things

My Escapee (Race 5 no. 3) $1.50 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

I have no problem with this mare being short. She should have this lot on toast after her super win against similar company last week.

Im Corzin Terror (Race 6 no. 10) $1.30

I'm pretty confident this bloke will be too good but I wouldn't be jumping into very short odds from the outside second line draw.

Best Value

Royal Deviate (Race 1 no. 5) $6

This guy can certainly beat the favourite so look for some value in early Fixed Odds markets. FYI - I marked him around $3.

Artista Lombo (Race 3 no. 2) $6.50 Generally Outspoken (no. 4) $15 Amanda Don (no. 6) $26

The favourite (Tallulah Bay) will be very short here but I'm not sure she should be. I give good winning chances to all the above horsesand they can all be backed Each Way.

Centonic (Race 4 no. 8) $21

He runs on strongly off a solid tempo and if he gets conditions to suit the double-figure quote looks juicy.

Saint Flash (Race 7 no. 7) $16 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

Mustang Mach has to be top pick but he's a query at the stand and choking down last weekend may have knocked his confidence. Saint Flash is the forgotten horse. He beat Bitobliss on his merits in the Nyah Cup and also won the Maryborough Cup under Standing Start conditions. He drops in grad ebig time after taking on the Cranbourne and Bendigo Cups. Tanabi Bromac (2) is also a huge over after a couple of handy recent efforts.

Best Trifecta

Race 8

Box Trifecta: 3,9,10,11. $60 gets 250%.


3,6,10/ 3,10/ 2,4,8,10/ 1,4,7,9,12. $60 gets 50%.