THE GAME PLAN for Melton
Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
Best Value Bets
Paintball (Race 1 no. 11)
$3.20
I’ve
been taken by both of her runs back from a break and although she draws the
back row tonight I think that will work in her favour as there will be some
pace on early and I can see her charging home off some cover late.
Matty Chrimes (Race 7 no.
7) $7
This
is a race of some depth but I think this guy has a terrific each way chance as
I can see him rolling forward, getting to the death without too much hassle and
with a lack of any real pace in the race he should be hard to get past.
The Money Races
Race 2
I’m
not telling you anything you probably don’t already know here but Fearless
Leader and Bettor Believe It look miles better than their rivals and should run
1,2 so I’m loading up on the exotics with that pair. Below is how I’m playing with $100 total
spend.
Quinella:
1,5. $40
Trifecta:
1,5/ 1,5/ 4,8,9. $30 gets you 500%
First
Four: 1,5/ 1,5/ 4,8,9/ 2,4,6,8,9,10. $30
gets you 100%
Race 3
Similar
to the previous race Nats Survival and Lively Princess appear to have the wood
on their rivals and should finish 1,2 so I’m going to attack the exotics with
that pair. Below is how I’m playing for
$100 total spend.
Quinella:
1,2. $40
Trifecta:
1,2/ 1,2/ 3,4,5,6,7,9. $30 gets you 250%
First
Four: 1,2/ 1,2/ 3,4,5,6,7,9/ 3,4,5,6,7,9.
$30 gets you 50%
Race 6
Regal
Knight should be too good for these with Machin Out a clear second pick and
almost guaranteed to fill the exacta so I’m going to base some exotics around
that pair. Below is how I’m playing for
$100 total spend.
Exacta:
4/ 2. $40
Trifecta:
4/ 2/ 1,3,8. $30 gets you 1500%
First
Four: 4/ 2/ 1,3,8/ 1,3,7,8,10,11. $30
gets you 200%
5,13/ 7/ 4/
2,6,7,9,10,11. $50 gets you 416.66%
5,13/ 1,2,6/ 4/
2,6,7,9,10,11. $50 gets you 138.88%
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Value
Lets Slash An Burn (Race 7 no.9) $9
It wasn’t that long ago that this guy split Smoken Up and
Decorated Jasper in the VHRSC Classic and while this field is more than handy,
there does look to be a heap of early speed engaged and if Emmett Brosnan can
smoke the pipe until the dust settles then attempt to outstay his rivals then
the $9 quoted in today’s herald Sun looks very juicy indeed. Back him Each Way.
Best Roughies
Sonofanearl (Race 4 no. 4) $17
This is a simple case of the Speed Map telling us the story.
There are no guarantees in Stand Start trotting affairs but this bloke is a
bullet from the strands on his day and barring accidents should find the front
and have options once he does. He was coming off a six week break when close up
in a similar race to this last week and look seven better placed on handicaps
tonight. Play Each Way again.
Vapar Raine (Race 6 no. 1) $17
This mare is another Speed Map special. Put simply, she is
drawn beautifully to trail likely leader Machin Out and given Regal Knight may
have to apply some pressure if he’s to win the race, in behind the speed where
she will lob looks the ideal place to be. She is third up from a spell as well
and has plenty of talent on her day so back her Each Way at the very plump
quote.
Money Races
Race 1
I just can’t help thinking that at their best Dual Agent
Tabman (10) & Paintball (11) are a class above their rivals and
should be fighting this out. With ordinary luck in running they should finish
one-two but their draws are not kind so we’ll play a saver if things don’t go
to plan.
10,11/ 10,11/ 8,12. $60 gets 1500%.
10,11/ 8,12/ 10,11. $20 gets 500%.
10,11/ 10,11/ 3,4,5,6,7. $20 gets 200%.
Race 2
It’s a similar case here as Bettor Believe It (1) &
Fearless Leader (5) should outclass their rivals if everything goes to
plan. Ideally. We’d love to see them leader/behind leader in transit but it’s
more likely they’ll be leading and breezing. Either way they should also run
one-two but we’ll have a one-three saver to cover our backside.
1,5/ 1,5/ 4,6,9,11,13. $75 gets 750%.
1,5/ 4,6,9,11,13/ 1,5. $25 gets 250%.
Quaddies (x3)
4,5,12,13/ 7/ 4/ 2,4,6,7,9,11. $36 gets 150%.
4,5,12,13/ 7/ 1,2,8/ 2,4,6,7,9,11. $36 gets 50%.
4,5,12,13/ 2,6,8,10/ 4/ 2,4,6,7,9,11. $28 gets 29.17%.
Andy Gath
Best Chance
Regal Knight (Race 6 no. 3)
“I’m sure he’s my best winning chance for the night. He’s
only going to get better, he went well first-up and while this is a little bit
harder it’s still well within his scope. We’re probably going to have to sit
outside Machin Out but he’s very well and it’s a race that he probably should
win.”
Others
Renaissance Man (Race 5 no. 7)
“He’s had a lot of issues over the last couple of years and
it’s very hard to get a horse of his quality back to their best but he’s
heading the right way. It’s going to be a little bit tricky from seven because
we haven’t really decided whether we’re going forward or back but his work’s
very good, he’s very sharp and this is another stepping stone for him.”
Bliss Man (Race 9 no. 1)
“He’s trialled well leading into this, he beat Macha in a
trial quite comfortably and he’s got the good draw. He’s got good gate speed
too so we’re going to try and lead; Guaranteed is obviously a quality horse but
we don’t want to kid ourselves heading into the (Vic) Derby heats. We want to
find out where we stand so if we lead, we’re very keen to hold the top. If we
get beaten then so be it but we won’t be gifting Guaranteed the race.”
Precious Dragon (Race 10 no. 6)
“This is probably the easiest race she’s been in, she’s a
nice mare without being a star. She probably lacks a little bit of high speed
of high speed but she’d strong and she’s getting better and this does look a
winnable race for her on face value.”
Ive No Boundaries (Race 11 no. 2)
“If it trots it wins. The likelihood of him trotting? I
don’t know. He’s probably about a 50/50 hope. He ran second in the New Zealand
Trotters Derby so he’s got plenty of talent. He’s got good gate speed and good
overall speed but you’d be backing him on trotting the whole way and I can’t
guarantee that’s going to happen.”
BLACK BOOKERS – (Racing Tonight)
Paintball (Race 1 no. 11) $3.20
Quality mare who comes off a
cracking second to Conflict Of Interest at Horsham 12 days ago where she did
all the bullocking work in the run and was just nabbed on the post in 1:56.6
for the sprint trip. She will be at her
peak now after two runs this time in and with some pace expected early watch
for her to be strong at the finish. Click here to view the run.
National Service (Race 5 no. 6) $8
This guy hadn’t been too
dangerous in two runs back from a spell but he really caught the eye here last
week when a fast-finishing fifth to Smudge Bromac and if he gets the right kind
of trip tonight he is not without a chance at generous odds.
STAR TRIALLERS
Hermione (Race 5 no. 1) $13
Talented sit-sprint mare who
hasn’t really fired this campaign but she has been freshened up for this
assignment and has been trialling well at Bendigo and Kilmore of late so from
the pole draw she is not without an each way show.
Keayang Cullen (Race 7 no. 11) $4.20
Top flight 5YO who resumes
from a 3-month spell tonight off the back of an impressive Geelong trial
victory last Monday night where he slipped home in 57.0 to beat stable mate
Keayang Hanover comfortably. He has the
back row draw to contend with first up but his class will take him a long way
towards winning this fresh.
BLACK BOOKER – (Kilmore Yesterday)
Christian Sloy
Was having his first start
for Susan Hunter yesterday and after enjoying a soft trip on the pegs he busted
loose of a pocket on the turn to charge home into second spot behind Truman in
a slippery last quarter. He is yet to
win a race but will be very shortly on that effort. Click here to view the run.
SPEED MAPS
Please note that this week there will only be graphic representations of the likely settling positions in the quaddie legs for tonight's races and punters are encouraged to follow @hrvinformer for all change of tactics information right throughout the night.
PUPPET PULLS THE STRINGS
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