Good Form Preview - Ballarat Cup Night

The Game Plans for Ballarat Cup Night
  

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

Best Value

Decorated Jasper (Race 8 no. 8) $13 / $2.30 TAB Fixed Odds

There is no doubt that Sushi Sushi is the one to beat from the beaut draw but I think he is a little bit vulnerable, particularly over the last 100m so with that in mind I think this guy has a terrific each way chance.  His form reads well for this, having beaten Mach Alert in the Casey Classic at Melton four back, Melpark Major in the Coca Cola Cup here three runs ago and his last two behind Melpark Major in the Hamilton Cup and Sushi Sushi in the Bendigo Cup have been outstanding.  He should be coiled up behind Sushi Sushi from his trailing draw and with the right luck in the straight I think he will be mighty hard to hold off.

The Money Race

Race 8

As mentioned above Sushi Sushi holds all the aces from the pole but I don’t think he is past the post and I’m giving Mach Alert, Decorated Jasper, Mah Sish and Smoken Up chances of knocking him off so I’m going to attack the race with some trifectas and first fours in the hope of snaring some value.  Below is how I’m playing with $200 total spend.

Trifecta: 1/ 3,8,9,12/ 3,4,7,8,9,11,12.  $50 gets you 200% 

Trifecta: 3,8,9,12/ 1/ 3,4,7,8,9,11,12.  $50 gets you 200%

First Four: 1/ 3,8,9,12/ 3,4,7,8,9,11,12/ Field.  $50 gets you 26.04%

First Four: 3,8,9,12/ 1/ 3,4,7,8,9,11,12/ Field.  $50 gets you 26.04%

Quaddie

3,5,6/ 1,3,4,5,8,10/ 1,6,7/ 1,3,8,9,12.  $100 gets you 37.03%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value

Fearless Leader (Race 1 no. 9) $3This bloke has some real high speed at his disposal and also doesn’t mind doing his fair share of work. He has gone from strength to strength of recent times and despite the second row draw, could actually lob in front of his major danger It Is Billy (4) in transit. He’s no moral but at $3 looks more than juicy enough for me to get involved.

Best Roughies

McArdle Lassie (Race 5 no.7) $11Adrian Preston has breathed a new lease of life into this five-year-old mare in recent weeks. She possesses a devastating turn of foot and with plenty of early speed likely here, she looks extremely tempting if anything close to the $11 she’s quoted at in today’s Herald Sun.

Smokin Joker (Race 7 no. 8) $34This guy is a bona fide veteran but he has plenty of talent at his best and seems to be racing as well as ever right now. Even more importantly, he is drawn behind certain leader Real Hammer (1) and should secure the ideal trip. There’s no Sprint Lane here but he doesn’t like them anyway and should be backed PLACE ONLY at what should be massive odds.

Money Races

Race 1
This is probably the best betting race of the night. That’s because the two best pacers engaged, Fearless Leader (9) & It Is Billy (4) have precious few convictions so it would be a big shock if either missed the placings. Play as I have below for a $100 outlay.
4,9/ 4,9/ 2,3,5,8,11. $75 gets 750%.4,9/ 2,3,5,8,11/ 4,9. $25 gets 250%.

Race 7There are two reasons I like this race as a betting proposition. The first is that I sense Real Hammer (1) will start shorter than he’s entitled to and the second is that I reckon Smokin Joker (8) can snatch a place and ass heaps of value to exotics. See below for my strategy.

1,6,7/ 1,6,7,8/ 1,6,7,8. $72 gets 400%.1,6,7/ 1,6,7,8/ 5,10. $18 gets 100%.

Quaddie

3,6,7,9/ 1,2,3,4,5,10,12,13/1,6,7/ 1,3,8,9. 
$100 gets 26.04%.



Ballarat Cup Night Trainer Talk

Geoff Webster

Best Chance

Mister Zion (Race 3 no. 2)“He’ll begin safely, he’s not super quick out so he’ll have to work around outside them or go to the front in the middle stages. He’s been working quite nicely, even though he finished fifth last start but he was only beaten four-metres. He’s really got his hoof on the till at the moment. He’s my best chance.”

Others

Future Operator (Race 2 no. 2)“He’s come back a bit better – he’s pacing better and he’s an all-round better horse now. Ability-wise he goes alright. If he can hold his position early he is a good chance.”

Our Arlington (Race 6 no. 3)“He’s back in the draw and hopefully he can make use of it. That’s a very strong race but in saying that he’s at the top of his game. Even though he ran nowhere in the Shepparton Cup he came from back and hit the line strong. Providing things go his way he’s a nice each-way chance.”

Lets Slash An Burn (Race 6 no. 12)“He’s drawn out the back row and he’s not really racing at his best but I’m just hoping he can be more competitive than he’s been.

Real Hammer (Race 7 no. 1)“It’s probably not even a good draw for him because he gets so keen early. One sort of cramps his style, that’s the only little query with him. Renaissance Man and Pembrook Caesar both look like nice horses so it’s a tough race for him.

Lavish Art & Bit Of A Babe (Race 9 no's 7 & 8)“They’re both nice fillies but because they’ve already won one three-year-old they are just struggling to get the second one. We’ve run into a couple of Emma Stewart’s nice fillies and it’s been a bit tough.

“Lavish Art is drawn very poorly for her, so she’ll have to go back, which makes it hard. Bit Of A Babe drawn inside the second line isn’t a bad draw for her so she should be a chance if she gets any luck in the run.”

Tabcorp Park - Saturday

Washmepockets (Race 4 no. 4) “He had no luck in the Shepparton Cup either, provided he can get across outside the leader and even some cover after that that would be good. He’ll be competitive in any race he goes around in. I think of the others he is my best each way chance.

Flaming Flutter (Race 5 no. 11) “He’s got a terrible draw but he’s worked well during the week. I loved his run in Adelaide. Provided he gets any luck during the run he should qualify for the final even if he can’t win this week.

BLACKBOOKER (Racing Tonight)

Mah Sish (Race 8 no. 9) $10 TAB Fixed Odds

This guy comes off a monster run in the Bendigo Cup 13 days ago where he moved up without cover mid-race and was just collared on the stick by Sushi Sushi at the end of a 54.7 final half.  He will more than likely have to do some work again from his back row draw but showed last time that he is well up to the challenge and is definitely worth a wager at the generous odds. Click here to view the run.

STAR TRIALLERS

Blazeaway Macray (Race 5 no. 3) $3.50

Top quality mare who rounded out her 3YO season by winning the Breeders Crown Consolation at Melton and she should be ready to fire first up after two trials this month at Melton, the latest an easy victory there last Monday night so expect her to be hard to beat from the nice gate.

Jaccka Clive (Race 6 no. 10) $3.80 TAB Fixed Odds

Tough stayer resuming from a break tonight off the back of two recent trial wins at Shepparton from behind the mobile and his standing start form is excellent, having won 10 of his 28 outings under these conditions.  He is likely to be put into the contest early by Greg Sugars and should run a bold race first up.

SPEED MAPS

Please note that this week there will only be graphic representations of the likely settling positions in tonight's races and punters are encouraged to follow @hrvinformer for all change of tactics information right throughout the night.

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