Good Form Preview - Shepparton Cup Night

THE GAME PLANS for Shepparton Cup Night

 

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

TRIFECTA-A-THON

There will be short-priced favourites in most races tonight and I do think the majority of them will win but rather than backing them all straight out or having a big all-up I’m going to take some trifectas in the pursuit of some value.  I’m going to outlay $50 on each of the races below for a total spend of $400.

Race 1

1/ 3,5,8,11/ 3,4,5,8,9,11,12.  $50 gets you 208.33%

Race 2
4/ 3,8/ 2,3,5,8,10,11,12/  $50 gets you 416.66%

Race 3

5/ 2/ 3,4,6,10,12.  $25 gets you 500%
5/ 3,4,6,10,12/ 2.  $25 gets you 500%

Race 5

3/ 10/ 1,4,6,9.  $25 gets you 625%
3/ 1,4,6,9/ 10.  $25 gets you 625%

Race 6

10/ 2/ 1,4,5,6,8,9.  $50 gets you 833.33%

Race 8

11/ 3,9,10/ 2,3,6,7,8,9,10.  $25 gets you 138.88%
3,9,10/ 11/ 2,3,6,7,8,9,10.  $25 gets you 138.88%

Race 9

4/ 1/ 2,5,6,7,8,9,10.  $50 gets you 714.28%

Race 10

1,6/ 1,6/ 4,8,9,10,12.  $50 gets you 500%

Quaddies (x4) $100 Outlay

1,3,6,10/ 3/ 10/ 1.  $35 gets you 875%

1,3,6,10/ 3/ 10/ 4,9,11,12,13.  $35 gets you 175%
2,7,8/ 3/ 10/ 1.  $15 gets you 500%
2,7,8/ 3/ 10/ 4,9,11,12,13.  $15 gets you 100%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Tonight’s Shepparton Cup card is littered with very short priced favourites and the fact of the matter is almost all of them are very likely to win. That means if we’re going to make a dollar out of the night we’ve got to play exotics – skinny exotics. Personally, I love these meetings and I’m very keen to play but first there is one value runner for the night I’m confident can win.

Best Value

The Ragpickers Dream (Race 4 no. 6) $7.50

A winner of 12 from 30 races who has three metropolitan class successes to his name despite his M1 assessment this guy also finished fourth in last season’s 4YO Bonanza beating home horses like Our Arlington, Devilish Smile, Saint Flash and Royal Verdict. He will not lead tonight as American Muscle (3) is a living certainty to take up that role but he’s a quick beginner who’ll be in the firing line throughout and is in the kind of form that should see him half his $7.50 quote in today’s Herald Sun.

Money Races

Race 2

I always love punting on Finals and this race is no different. I’m taking a very cavalier approach but simply put, My Hard Copy (4) looks better than his rivals despite failing in his heat of this race while Minti Choice (3) & Royal Hustler (8) appear certain to fill the placings.

4/ 3,8/ 3,8. $65 gets 3250%.

4/ 3,8/ 2,5,6,9,10,11,12. $35 gets 250%.

Race 3

This is another Final, the $25K Lombo decider for 2YO fillies and Tallulah Bay (5)  has the race on toast. Similarly it would seem there are very limited place hopes so play as outlined below and you should walk away with a profit.

5/ 2,4/ 2,4,12. $70 gets 1750%.

5/ 2,4/ 6,10. $20 gets 500%.

5/ 12/ 2,4. $10 gets 500%.

Race 4

As outlined above I’m keen on The Ragpickers Dream (6) in this race, but more importantly perhaps I see American Muscle (3) as his only danger and also sense there are limited chances to even run a drum. Below is my plan for the race.

3,6/ 1,2,3,6,8,10/ 1,2,3,6,8,10. $80 gets 200%.

3,6/ 1,2,3,6,8,10/ 9,12. $10 gets 100%.

Race 6

Im Corzin Terror (10) is on the fast track to much better races than this while Teo Enteo (2) is also on his way to far stronger events. They are almost certain to finish one-two in that order here but as is the theme, we will have a saver in case of unforeseen difficulties.

10/ 2/ 1,8,9. $60 gets 2000%.

10/ 1,8,9/ 2. $30 gets 1000%.

 

Quaddies (x2)

3,6/ 3/ 10/  1,3,4,7,8,9,12,13. $64 gets 400%.

3,6/ 1,4,6,10/ 10/ 1,3,4,7,8,9,12,13. $36 gets 56.25%.

Bill Hutchison (@Hutchysays)

With quite a few short priced favourites tonight we'll look for a bit of value, so I'm going to look at the shorties who are probably a shade toogood and the ones we may want to pot.

The (almost) good things

My Escapee (Race 5 no. 3) $1.50 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

I have no problem with this mare being short. She should have this lot on toast after her super win against similar company last week.

Im Corzin Terror (Race 6 no. 10) $1.30

I'm pretty confident this bloke will be too good but I wouldn't be jumping into very short odds from the outside second line draw.

Best Value

Royal Deviate (Race 1 no. 5) $6

This guy can certainly beat the favourite so look for some value in early Fixed Odds markets. FYI - I marked him around $3.

Artista Lombo (Race 3 no. 2) $6.50 Generally Outspoken (no. 4) $15 Amanda Don (no. 6) $26

The favourite (Tallulah Bay) will be very short here but I'm not sure she should be. I give good winning chances to all the above horsesand they can all be backed Each Way.

Centonic (Race 4 no. 8) $21

He runs on strongly off a solid tempo and if he gets conditions to suit the double-figure quote looks juicy.

Saint Flash (Race 7 no. 7) $16 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

Mustang Mach has to be top pick but he's a query at the stand and choking down last weekend may have knocked his confidence. Saint Flash is the forgotten horse. He beat Bitobliss on his merits in the Nyah Cup and also won the Maryborough Cup under Standing Start conditions. He drops in grad ebig time after taking on the Cranbourne and Bendigo Cups. Tanabi Bromac (2) is also a huge over after a couple of handy recent efforts.

Best Trifecta

Race 8

Box Trifecta: 3,9,10,11. $60 gets 250%.

Quaddie

3,6,10/ 3,10/ 2,4,8,10/ 1,4,7,9,12. $60 gets 50%.

 

Saturday Trainer Talk

Craig Turnbull

Best Chance

La Pucelle (Race 1 no. 1) $1.70

“We’ll find out how much  gate speed she has tonight but I think she’ll get out well. Early on she wouldn’t have as bar of it but the other night she got out quite well and if she’s close enough I’m confident she’s the best horse in the race.”

Other

Viewpoint (Race 8 no. 10) $6.50

“I’ve got a pretty big opinion of this guy. He did a few things wrong the other night but we’ve played around with his gear and he should be a different horse tonight. I’ve got a healthy respect for Business In Motion but I certainly don’t think it’s a one-horse race, put it that way.”

Dean Braun

Best Chance

Im Corzin Terror (Race 6 no. 10) $1.30

“I really like this bloke, I actually don’t think he’s that far off Mustang Mach which is why we nominated for the Inter Dominion even though it will be tricky trying to get a run. I do rate Wayne Potter’s horse (Teo Enteo) but the faster they go the better he (Im Corzin Terror) paces so he’s a very smart animal who looks nicely placed.”

Other

Mustang Mach (Race 7 no. 1) $2.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

“I’m confident Mustang Mach will go really well;  it’s not the strongest Shepparton Cup of all time and he trialled well after Bendigo so we don’t think he’s taken any harm from the fall. If he goes as well as we expect it will be onward and upward to the Hunter Cup and if not it will be back to the drawing board."

BLACK BOOKER – (Racing Tonight)

Sterlish (Race 4 no. 2) $15

There was a lot to like about his last start second to Kotare Roland at Bendigo last week where he hit the line hard at the end of a 56.6 final half and if he gains the right run in transit tonight he is not without a chance at generous odds.

STAR TRIALLER

Courageousnquick (Race 10 no. 1) $2.70
Was one of this state’s best fillies last season, winning 6 of her 9 outings and she resumes tonight off the back of a Bendigo trial success 13 days ago where she finished off in 58.3. Rod Petroff has the option of holding the lead with her or sitting on Askmehow and she is sure to be mighty hard to beat first up.

SPEED MAPS

Please note the following maps have been formulated based on the opinion of HRV's Good Form team. For all Change of Tactic information follow @HRVinformer on Twitter.