Monday, September 30, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Yarra Valley

The Game Plan for Yarra Valley – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
As a general rule, I love betting at Yarra Valley. Not only is it Victoria’s most picturesque track, it’s also one of our fairest courses, however things haven’t been made easy by some very confusing races across today’s eight race card. To be honest, I could not find one horse I’d lob $100 on straight out (apart from Macho Comacho, who’ll be $1.10) so we’re going to play for a price w/ 4 Best Value Bets. 4 Best Roughies and just as many Quads, so let’s get started on another week of punting!

Best Value ($15 x $10)
Hunzarella (Race 4 no. 4) $6.50
The start will be all-important here because this girl has very good gate speed and if she can cross over in the first 100m there is neither a great deal of obvious pressure or a super dangerous late closer among her rivals.

Longtan Luke (Race 8 no. 5) $5.50
This guy is back from a fruitful few runs w/ Shane Tritton up in NSW & while there are always question marks when horses in his situation return to Vic, as long as they don’t put him up a silly price ($2.50 or shorter) then he is worth a crack given the lead should be his and he’s low flying right now.

Best Roughies ($5 x$20)
Adalia Dash (Race 3 no. 2) $23
I fully acknowledge that Maidstone Miss (9) is bordering on moraldom here but if you’re looking for one at a massive price who may well run a drum at very juicy odds then she is that horse. An underrated trotter, she has good manners form the stand and if she’s within striking distance on straightening here she can certainly fill a hole today.

Kyvalley Rancher (Race 3 no. 4) $10
This guy is in the very same race as Adalia Dash (2) and he is also worth of something the win and plenty the place based on his big reputation, the fact that punters heavily backed him to beat smart stablemate Did I Imagine That last start and that Chris Lang is driving him in preference to talented stablemate Kyvalley Castle (11). All that might amount to nothing but if you’re getting a price here he’s still worth an investment.

Bronze Destiny (Race 5 no. 6) $10
Once again, this guy is not my top tip but he has been enjoying a great preparation and critically, he should be able to roll forward here, land the 1x1 or the chair and he is always dangerous in either of those roles.

Joelles Dream (Race 7 no. 9) $13
This mare is only lightly raced but she’s been showing something for a while and her last start success when untouched to win in arrogant fashion was simply outstanding. Also in her favour is the strong early speed expected here, so if they sizzle through the first quarter here rely on her to finish w/ conviction in the lane.

The Quads (x4)
2,3,4,6,7,9/ 1/ 7/ 3,9. $40 gets 333.33%
2,3,4,6,7,9/ 3,6,8/ 7/ 3,9. $36 gets 100%
2,3,4,6,7,9/ 1/ 7/ 1,5,8,10. $12 gets 50%
2,3,4,6,7,9/ 3,6,8/ 7/ 1,5,8,10. $12 gets 16.67%

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Good Form Preview - Sunday Sesh @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value ($25 Each Way)

Dee Jay Ray (Race 2 no. 2) $4.50
Metrofromelle (Race 8 no. 2) $8.50

The Money Races

Race 4

4/ 7/ 1,5,6,8. $24 gets 600%
4/ 1,5,6,8/ 7. $11 gets 275%
7/ 4/ 1,5,6,8. $10 gets 250%
7/ 1,5,6,8/ 4. $5 gets 125%

Race 6

2/ 1,3,8/ 1,3,8. $20 gets 333.33%
2/ 1,3,8/ 4,5,7,9,10. $15 gets 100%
1,3,8/ 2/ 1,3,8. $10 gets 166.67%
1,3,8/ 2/ 4,5,7,9,10. $5 gets 33.33%

The Quads (x5)

4,7/ 5,6/ 2/ 3. $24 gets 600%
4,7/ 5,6/ 1,3,4,5,8/ 3. $40 gets 200%
4,7/ 2,3,4,8,9,10/ 2/ 3. $24 gets 200%
4,7/ 5,6/ 2/ 1,2,7. $6 gets 50%
5,6,8/ 5,6/ 2/ 3. $6 gets 100%

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Good Form Preview - AFL Grand final night @ The Sunraysia

The Game Plan for Mildura - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

The Granny of 2013 is about to kick off so I won't go into any essays this afternoon. Suffice to say it's a very good betting night up North so if you're keen on winning some back from the First Goal & Norm Smith bets that went west get involved w/ the Game Plan outlined below.

Best Bets/ Formula 4 ($125 gets 25 Units)

Glasscutterspirit (Race 3 no. 5) $1.90
Jamies Boy (Race 4 no. 6) $1.70
Shes A Killer (Race 7 no. 8) $2
Pirates Plunder (Race 8 no. 6) $2
Romantic Bliss (race 9 no. 6) $1.40

The Money Races

Race 3 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)

5/ 1,3/ 1,3. $26 gets 1300%
5/ 1,3/ 4,7,8,9. $24 gets 300%

Race 4 (Flexi First4 for $50)

6/ 1,3,7/ 1,3,7/ Field. $50 gets 208.33%

The Quads (x3)

6/ 4/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,10/ 8. $23 gets 328.57%
6/ 1,2,3,7,8/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,10/ 8. $56 gets 150%
6/ 4/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,10/ 1,4,5,7,9. $21 gets 60%

Friday, September 27, 2013

Good Form Preview - Grand Final Eve @ HQ

Adam Hamilton's Melton Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

The Best Bets ($50 Win)
Catch Your Breath (Race 3 no. 13) $3 Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke was my clear top tip from the moment last week’s heats were run. An incredibly versatile pacer, I have always contended that he is capable of mixing it in FFA class at some stage & still think he can do that under the right circumstances. Critical to his chances tonight is the fact he’s one of Australia’s quickest beginners off the second line and with NO horse in front of him due to the two early scratching’s he will blast forward in search of the front and clearly stay ahead of his major danger here Smudge Bromac (12). We’ll want black figures but if we get them then get on board.

Tender Don (Race 8 no. 5) $1.60 Click here to bet on this horse now
It was wonderful to see Brief Glance (4) return to some of his best form last weekend but there’s no guarantee it will happen again and even if it does, the above trotter has been competing well in much better class and just seems to have something on this lot right now. The small field also suits so anything better than $1.50 is OK by me.

The Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Donegal Delight (Race 5 no. 8) $5 Click here to bet on this horse now
There are three likely scenarios in this race:

1) Our Arlington (2) boots through & holds the top with Donegal Delight (8) on his back.
2) Machin Out (3) crosses Our Arlington (2) then hands up to stablemate Mark Dennis (4) leaving Donegal Delight (8) four back the poles.
3) Mark Dennis (4) crosses Our Arlington (2) leaving Donegal Delight (8) three peggin’ in transit.

In scenarios 1&3 I give our mare a massive chance of winning and I still think she can run a drum if scenario two plays out. I’m also starting to think she’ll start a lot longer than the $5 I’ve marked her in today’s Herald Sun so we may get a big result if she can jag the prize.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 2 Click here to bet on this race now
There are only two possible scenarios here as far as I can see. Either Giveusagrin (2) holds all his rivals wide and shoots for an all-the-way win from his polemarking draw or he holds up early then hands up to Mister Sheedy (7) in transit. I’m relying on the second scenario prevailing because Giveusagrin (2) thrives on sit-sprint racing, even over the mile, and if my theory plays out as expected those two horses will run the Quinella with limited hopes of even running third.

7/ 2/ 9,10. $24 gets 1200%
7/ 2/ 3,4,8. $12 gets 400%
2/ 7/ 9,10. $10 gets 500%
2/ 7/ 3,4,8. $4 gets 133.33%

Race 3 Click here to bet on this race now
History, and logic, suggests that class always prevails in this race so I’m tipping that regardless of what happens in the run, Catch Your Breath (13) will finish first or second and Smudge Bromac (12) will also take part on the podium. From there we’ll just fill out our tricks w/ the other class runners and genuinely expect a result.

13/ 12/ 6,7,10,11. $24 gets 600%
13/ 6,7,10,11/ 12. $16 gets 400%
12/ 13/ 6,7,10,11. $10 gets 250%

Race 7 Click here to bet on this race now
There’s almost always something drawing you to punt on the programme’s best race and tonight is no different. On face value there are four class runners that should be fighting out the finish. I’m not sure we’ll make our fortune off the race but at least we’ll be in it and w/ a dash of luck we may well double our outlay.

1,3,11,12 Boxed. $24 gets 100%
1,3,11,12/ 1,3,11,12/ 2,4,5. $18 gets 50%
1,3,11,12/ 1,3,11,12/ 6,8. $8 gets 33.33%

The Quaddies (x3)Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
2,4,5,10/ 2,7,8/ 5,6,7,10,13/ 1,3,11,12. $60 gets 25%
2,4,5,10/ 3,13/ 5,6,7,10,13/ 1,3,11,12. $16 gets 10%
3,6,8,9/ 2,7,8/ 5,6,7,10,13/ 1,3,11,12. $24 gets 10%

The Game Plan for Melton with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).

Best Bets ($50 Win)
(Race 1 No 2 Brylin Crescent ) $3.50 Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare sat parked here two runs back and fought on bravely in the lane. Last start she took on the pacers in a small field at Kilmore and almost wore them down in the straight. I think she will have enough speed to head off Donkiri at the start and if she does she will be hard to run down. 

(Race 9 No 5 Monica My Dear) $2.80 Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare has been very brave in defeat at her last two starts where she has had to do work outside the leader. She might have to sit outside the leader again because there is some speed drawn inside her but I think she has a class edge on this field and is good enough to win parked if she can’t find the lead.

Best Value ($20w/$30p)
(Race 6 No 2 Cheveyo) $14Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy showed enough speed to find the lead here over the sprint trip here two runs back and led throughout in very quick time at big odds. He was forced back from the wide draw last start when he couldn’t get in from his wide draw.  He picked up some ground late between runners after settling four back along the pegs but was never going to figure from that position. He is drawn in close tonight and looks good value at $14.

Quaddie Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
2,3,4,5,9/ 2,7,13/ 2,5,6,7/ 3,11,12 $100 gets 55.56%

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Terang

The Game Plan for Terang – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I always enjoy punting @ Terang & tonight should be no exception w/ good, even fields & a hint of class to give the programme some genuine interest. From a punting perspective, value looks the order of the night & I’ll be attacking 1 Best Bet, 1 Best Value and 1 Best Roughie along w/ 2 Money races and some Quads in order to jag a result. Good Form metrics have also begun & after three days Quaddies look the way to play given we’re running at a nice profit on that bet type so far this week.
Best Bets ($50 Win)
Our Summer Wind (Race 1 no. 1) $3.20
This bloke has not set the world on fire in two runs back from a break but he’ll be fitter at this, his third run in and he drops in grade to boot. Importantly, he should either lead or trail in transit and w/ his major danger, Willow Robyn (8), drawn in behind him, he’s certainly the one they have to beat.
Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Cee Goddess (Race 3 no. 2) $5
The start will be important for this mare because if she lobs the top as I expect then it would be a real shock to see her get run down. In fact, she’s a big winning chance even if she doesn’t get the front so the $5 looks very juicy indeed.
Best Roughie ($10 x $40)
Mayorofshinetown (Race 7 no. 11)
This guy didn’t get a heap of late racing room in a similar class of race to this last time out and his form last term was exemplary for a race of this nature. Also playing in his favour is the fact they should go quick early doors so he will be charging at the business end.
The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 1
As mentioned above, I think that Our Summer Wind (1) is the one here and if he is to be rolled then Willow Robyn (8) looks the likely offender so play the Tricks below and hope nothing outrageous happens at the start.
1,8/ 1,8/ 3,5,10. $24 gets 400%
1,8/ 3,5,10/ 1,8. $12 gets 200%
1,8/ 3,5,10/ 3,5,10 $8 gets 66.67%
1,8/ 1,8/ 4,7,9. $6 gets 100%
Race 3
2/ 1,3/ 1,3,8,9. $18 gets 300%
2/ 8,9/ 1,3,8,9. $12 gets 200%
1,3,9/ 2/ 1,3,8,9. $20 gets 222.22%
The Quads (x4)
3,4,5,6/ 1/ 2,8/ 5,6,11. $24 gets 100%
3,4,5,6/ 1/ 2,8/ 1,2,5. $12 gets 50%
3,4,5,6/ 1/ 1,3,5/ 5,6,11. $18 gets 50%
3,4,5,6/ 2,5,6,8,10/ 2,8/ 5,6,11. $46 gets 38.33%

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Bray

The Game Plan for Ballarat – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I have to admit it’s something of a blessing that brand new Good Form Guru, Andrew Evans, is helping out w/ a second Game Plan tonight because I’ve rarely found a meeting more difficult to assess. That is why there’ll be no Money Races tonight & we’ll be trying to make a profit via 1 Best Bet and 3 Best Roughies along w/ 4 potentially lucrative Quads.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Goodtime Veejay (Race 5 no. 6) $2.25
I can only hope that this guy’s last start failure behind Black Caprice will put a few punters off and we will get something like a black figure price because he was actually pretty brave there in a ballistic last half (55.6) and his prior form would suggest he’ll be way too good for these.

Best Roughies ($10 x $40)
Exotic Native (Race 1 no. 10) $11
You’ll have to hold your breath when this bloke goes around because he knocks up doing things wrong and can break your heart in a stride but if he does get it all right tonight I think he’s at least as good as anything in the race. Back him if you dare because we’ll at least have six more races to recoup the losses if he does blow it once more tonight.

Ballan Road (Race 2 no. 5) $11
This guy is not my top tip but at the juicy quote he has plenty in his favour. A quick beginner, he’ll be in the firing line early and given he’s ultra-consistent and ran a cracking race behind Will Atone last time I’m more than willing to have something Each way on here tonight.

Bubble Art (Race 7 no. 1) $26
We’re probably relying far more on the $40 Place Bet than the $10 Win here as this bloke DOES NOT win out of turn but he is an absolute stand start specialist who will lead for as long as he likes before hopefully handing up to an appropriate rival. It’s not the strongest race of all time and w/ so many stand start novices engaged he could lob the soft trip and finish on the podium at pretty big odds.

Quaddies (x4)
2/ 6/ 1,4,5,9/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10. $56 gets 175%
2/ 6/ 8,10/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10. $8 gets 50%
5,7/ 6/ 1,4,5,9/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10. $32 gets 50%
5,7/ 6/ 8,10/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10. $4 gets 12.5%

The Game Plan for Ballarat with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV)
Best Bet ($50 Win)
(Race 2 No 1 Tribal Fella) $3.75
This guy broke in the score up last start and was well out of position at the start when trying for three wins in a row. Whilst he was never a factor in the race he did a really good job to finish in fourth spot and from his draw tonight he can use his gate speed and should get an ideal run.

Best Value ($25 E/W)
(Race 6 No 5 Action Kosmos) $6
This bloke has been in great form over the last couple of months cashing a cheque at his last four starts. He is a good beginner from the strands and will be a big chance of finding the top again and at $6 looks a great each way bet.

The Money Races
Race 3 ($50 Flexi First Four’s)
5/ 6,8/ 2,6,7,8/ 2,4,6,7,8 $25 gets 138%
6,8/ 5/ 2,6,7,8/ 2,4,6,7,8 $25 gets 138%

Race 4 ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
2/ 7/ 1,3,4,5,6 $35 gets 700%
2/ 1,3,4,5,6/ 7 $15 gets 300%

Quaddie (x8)
2/ 6/ 1,4,5,9/ 10 $20 gets 500%
2/ 6/ 1,4,5,9/ 3,4,6,8 $20 gets 125%
2/ 1,5,9/ 1,4,5,9/ 3,4,6,8 $20 gets 41.67%
2/ 1,5,9/ 1,4,5,9/ 10 $20 gets 166.67%
7/ 6/ 1,4,5,9/ 10 $5 gets 125%
7/ 6/ 1,4,5,9/ 3,4,6,8 $5 gets 31.25%
7/ 1,5,9/ 1,4,5,9/ 10 $5 gets 41.67%
7/ 1,5,9/ 1,4,5,9/ 3,4,6,8 $5 gets 10.42%










Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night @ Shepparton

The Game Plan for Shepparton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s probably fair to say that this card isn’t as inviting as yesterdays programme @ Charlton but with even & tricky fields we can sometimes snare some serious value. Personally, I’m keen on four horses ranging in price from $4.50 to $12 in today’s Herald Sun and I’m going to back them all on an Each Way basis. I’m also going to target 1 Money Race to kick off the card and two staggered Quads.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Attack On Command (Race 1 no.5) $4.50
This guy has been in terrific form of recent times and if he can find the front early without spending too much petrol as I expect then it would be a shock to see them run him down.

Jusamirel (Race 3 no. 11) $4.50
This guy drew identically to where he does today before sweeping around his rivals, crossing the line first but losing the race on protest last time out. The horse he lost that protest to, Stunning Jasper (5), will be his biggest obstacle again here but he is flying and should go very close.

Fergus Mactavish (Race 5 no. 1) $4.80
He is another horse racing at the absolute peak of his powers and whether he leads them around here or sits in behind a horse like Conflict Of Interest (3) he should have something to offer at the knock.

Best Roughie ($25 Each Way)
Trottin Rosco (Race 4 no. 9) $12
We’re calling this guy a Roughie because he’s paying $12 in today’s paper but the truth is I’m going to back him like he’s a Best Value player. I’ve always had plenty of time for this guy and with plenty of early speed likely to set the race up for him and an encouraging trial win under his belt I think he will be very tough to beat.

The Money Race
Race 1
As mentioned above, I’m hoping Attack On Command (5) can work his way across the field here because if he does then he should finish no worse than second w/ limited chances to beat him home or even run second for mine.

5/ 1,3,9/ 1,3,9. $21 gets 350%
5/ 1,3,9/ 2,4,6,8. $12 gets 100%
1,3,9/ 5/ 1,3,9. $12 gets 200%
1,3,9/ 5/ 2,4,6,8. $5 gets 41.67%

The Quads (x2)
3,7,9/ 1,3,5/ 6,7,11,12/ 1,2,7. $54 gets 50%
1,3,7,9/ 1,3,5,6/ 5,6,7,11,12/ 1,2,4,7. $46 gets 14.38%

The Game Plan for Shepparton - with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV)
Best Bet ($50)
(Race 3 No 11 Jusamirel) $4.50
This guy was first across the line last start but broke stride on the line and lost the race on protest.  If he can work into a forward position without doing a heap of work from his second row draw as he did last start I think he will be very hard to hold out in the lane.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
(Race 2 No 1 Lynmarg Lady) $11
This mare has been finishing off her races well after settling back along the pegs. She gets her best draw here in recent times and she should have enough speed to kick up and lead early then take a sit behind likely leader Goldiedomic and run a big race at great each odds.

Money Race ($50 flexi first four's)
Race 2
I think that Goldiedomic will work forward off the gate and find the lead here with my best value runner Lynmarg Lady sitting behind it. If that occurs I think they are the two main chances in the race so I have worked some first four bets around those runners filling two out of the first three positions.

5/ 1/ 8,9/ field $16 gets 100%
5/ 8,9/ 1/ field $9 gets 56%
5/ 1/ field/ 8,9 $13 gets 81%
1/ 5/ 8,9/ field $7 gets 43%
1/ 5/ field/ 8,9 $5 gets 31%

Quaddies x4
3,7,9/ 1,3/ 6/ 1,2,7 $37.50 gets 208%
3,7,9/ 5/ 6/ 1,2,7 $12.50 gets 139%
3,7,9/ 1,3/ 5,7,10,11/ 1,2,7 $37.50 gets 52%
3,7,9/ 5/ 5,7,10,11/ 1,2,7 $12.50 gets 35%

Globe Derby September 16: Brace For Impact $16 into $4.60 (3rd)
($150 each way @ $16; $250 @ $9; $400 @ $5.50).

Gloucester Park September 16: Four Grinners $4.50 into $2.20 (1st);
Albion Park September 17: Ravishing Reward $6 into $2.40 (1st);
Wagga September 20: Home In Indiana $8 into $4.80 (1st);
Gloucester Park September 20: Chloe Vargarita $4 into $2.20 (1st);
Port Pirie September 20: Ultimate Call $12 into $6 (1st).

Albion Park September 16: Melton Bonny Mabel $9 into $4 (2nd);
Shepparton September 18: Juke Kartel $26 into $9 (unplaced);
Gold Coast September 19: Gargarra $3.60 into $1.75 (2nd);
Gold Coast September 20: Lethal Rocket $2.60 into $1.50 (unplaced);
Menangle September 21: Franco Noriega $3 into $1.70 (unplaced).

Menangle September 21: Ballochbuie $1000 at $6 ($5000+ return);
Wagga September 20: Look At Russo $2500 at $3 ($5000+);
Gloucester Park September 20: Sparkling Seelster $700 at $8 ($4900+);
Melton September 20: Brief Glance $600 at $8 ($4200+);
Gloucester Park September 16: La Stella Del Mare $500 at $9 ($4000+).

Monday, September 23, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Charlton

The Game Plan for Charlton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Call me ambitious but I think today’s Charlton meeting is littered w/ winning opportunities and looks like a mini-goldmine from a punting perspective. The cornerstone of my Game Plan for the day will be three Best Bets but I’m also very keen on two Money Races, an Exotic Speed Map Special, one roughie and some Quads. We’ll need to spend a bit but I’d be very surprised if we don’t walk away WELL in front.

Best Bets ($40 Win)
Desiring Kate (Race 2 no. 2) $3.25
To my mind, this young mare has been driven completely upside down at her past couple from ordinary draws and if she’s able to drop in behind My Lishi (1) follow her around and come with one home-stretch run I’d be surprised if she didn’t win the race.

Guvs Boy (Race 5 no. 5) $3.25
In a race almost devoid of gate speed and equally bereft of pressure I can see this guy pinging to the front and being left alone to dictate terms from there. He is not the strongest customer going around so if things don’t pan out to plan he’ll be vulnerable but if they do he should go wire-to-wire.

Stonethachristian (Race 8 no. 1) $2.90
I am always dubious about Swan Hill form where C1 pacers can rip home in FFA sections but I’ve always liked this guy and he was super brace around that velodrome racecourse last time out. The key tonight will be whether or not he holds the top. If he does I think he’s almost over the line but if he doesn’t then he’ll need some serious luck.

Best Roughie ($10 x $20)
Elle Jasper (Race 7 no. 11) $15
This girl is much better suited when drawing the front line where she can use her awesome early speed but having said that, she is the class runner who will only need a very possible early speed war and a cart into the race to prove a shade too good. Don’t go nuts but make sure you have something on.

The Money Races
Race 2 ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
2/ 1,5/ 1,3,5. $28 get 700%
1/ 2,5/ 2,3,5. $16 gets 400%
5/ 1,2/ 1,2,3. $6 gets 150%

Race 6 ($100 Flexi Trifectas)
2/ 1,9/ 1,9. $40 gets 2000%
2/ 1,9/ 4,8. $40 gets 1000%
2/ 1,9/ 5,7,11. $20 gets 333.33%

Exotic Speed Map Special
Race 8 ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
1/ 8/ 2,3,5,6,11,12. $24 gets 400%
1/ 2,3,5,6,11,12/ 8. $18 gets 200%
8/ 1/ 2,3,5,6,11,12. $8 gets 133.33%

The Quads (x3)
1/ 5/ 2/ 2,3,5,8,9,10,11. $23 gets 328.57%
1/ 3,6,8,9/ 2/ 2,3,5,8,9,10,11. $42 gets 150%
3,4,5,6,7/ 5/ 2/ 2,3,5,8,9,10,11. $35 gets 100%

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Good Form Preview - Sunday Sesh @ The Sunraysia

The Game Plan for Mildura – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Tonight’s Mildura card is typically tricky, partly because so many horses are coming off last start efforts at the very differently shaped Swan Hill track but by targeting 2 Best Bets, 2 Value Bets & 2 Quads I think we can end the week on a high.

Best Bets ($50 Win)

Donovan Maguire (Race 2 no. 5) $3.50
Glasscutterspirit (Race 7 no. 7) $3.50

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Diego Delavega (Race 4 no. 3) $6.50
The Open (Race 6 no. 7) $6

Quaddies (x2)
2,3,5,6,7,11/ 3,4,5,6,7,8,10/ 1,5,7,9,10/ 7. $42 gets 20%
2,3,5,6,7,11/ 3,4,5,6,7,8,10/ 1,5,7,9,10/ 3,6,8. $58 gets 9.21%

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Good Form Preview - Saturday night @ Cranny

The Game Plan for Cranbourne - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

We saw some incredible racing at Melton last night but it wasn't exactly an easy night for punting, so tonight's our night to fight back on the scoreboard. Essentially, there are three Best Best that just shouldn't be losing which will create the cornerstone for our night but we'll also be having a good crack at 3 Money Races and some Quads as well.ecord lasts

Best Bets/ All-Up ($100)

If the newspaper prices hold up here we'll get $250 per $100 investement.

Saab Quality (Race 4 no. 7) $1.50
This guy went like an absolute machine when breaking the Ballarat track record last start & will only need to replicate that effort to grind this lot into submission tonight.
Hilltop Hustler (Race 6 no. 7) $1.20
After a very brief let-up this former Kiwi intimdation machine should also be pounding his rivals either from the lead or the breeze on his way to much better races than this.
Regal Knight (Race 7 no. 6) $1.40
Andy Gath would like to see this bloke line up in Friday week's Melton Plate so even from the awkward draw this race should be nothing but a simple formality tonight.

The Money Races

Race 1

This is a race with almost four winning chances where luck in running will likely decide the result.

1,3,9,10/ 1,3,9,10/ 1,3,9,10/ 1,2,3,6,7,9,10. $50 gets 52.08%

Race 4

Saab Quality (7) looks close to a moral here. If he is to get beaten it should be by sit-sprint specialists Little Red Cloud (1) or Hostile Grins (4) and if one of those two don't blouse him they chould be fighting out the Silver medal role.

7/ 1,4/ 1,4. $20 gets 1000%
7/ 1,4/ 2,3,6. $20 gets 333.33%
1,4/ 7/ 1,4. $5 gets 250%
1,4/ 7/ 2,3,6. $5 gets 83.33%

Race 7

He hasn't always been one of mine but I'm depending upon Regal Knight (6) to get the job done early with Hellovanite (1) an almost sertain pdoium finisher.

6/ 1/ 3,7,9. $24 gets 800%
6/ 1/ 2,4. $6 gets 300%
6/ 3,7,9/ 1. $12 gets 400%
6/ 3,9/ 2,3,4,7,9. $8 gets 100%

The Quads

7/ 1,2,3/ 7/ 6. $60 gets 2000%
7/ 5,7,8,9/ 7/ 6. $20 gets 500%
1,4/ 1,2,3/ 7/ 6. $15 gets 250%
1,4/ 5,7,8,9/ 7/ 6. $5 gets 62.5%

Friday, September 20, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
After a reasonably successful week I’m ready to open the shoulders @ Melton tonight. On paper it’s a pretty attractive punting programme and in total I’ll be attacking one Best Bet, a Formula 2 w/ my next 3 Best Bets, 4 Money Races and half a dozen Quads. I’ll be out at Melton SKY hosting tonight so hopefully we can deliver a few winners both via this forum and also trackside this evening!

The Best Bet
Catch Your Breath (Race 3 no. 6) $1.90 ($50 Win)Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has always outstanding ability and given he’s just kept improving w/ every run for Dean Braun I think he’s sherry ripe for this assignment tonight, particularly as he should fire to the front and assume a critical advantage over the equally talented Smudge Bromac (7) early in the race.

The Next Best Bets/ Formula 2 ($60 gets 20 units)
If everything goes to plan I’d be expecting all three of these to win but if one happens to get rolled I’m taking the Formula 2 as insurance.

Arber (Race 1 no. 10) $3 Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke has relished a drop in grade for new trainer Tim Bolitho and will only need a half reasonable lead time from the frontrunners to overwhelm his rivals in the lane.

Western Rockstar (Race 4 no. 1) $2.50Click here to bet on this horse now
The start will be important for this bloke because if he holds the early lead as expected he should be winning but if not he’s a lot more vulnerable for sure.

Elegant Image (Race 8 no. 5) $1.30 TAB fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
I’d be backing this bloke on the tote because his Fixed Odds price is a little bit silly but if he rolls to the lead as expected they won’t be running him down and even if he has to sit parked he’s still the one to beat.

The Money Races
Race 3 ($70 Flexi Trifectas) Click here to bet on this race now
As mentioned above, Catch Your Breath (6) looks very close to a good thing for mine and there’s little doubt that Smudge Bromac (7) will run a place behind him here so play the four Tricks below and have a decent crack.

6/ 7/ 8. $20 gets 2000%
6/ 7/ 2,3,4. $30 gets 1000%
6/ 8/ 7. $10 gets 1000%
6/ 2,3,4/ 7. $10 gets 333.33%

Race 4 ($60 Flexi Trifectas)Click here to bet on this race now
This is very much a risky proposition as it’s built upon an abstract theory but if things pan out as I imagine it could be a very profitable race for us. The theory is that Western Rockstar (1) will do enough to boot through and hold the early lead and that Illawong Kath (2) will test the polemarker early before dropping in behind him ahead of Our Horizon (8). If that scenario prevails one of these Tricks should lob and we may even walk away a winner if it doesn’t.

1/ 2/ 3,4,5,10,11. $20 gets 400%
1/ 3,4,5,10,11/ 2. $10 gets 200%
1/ 3,4,5,10,11/ 3,4,5,10,11. $20 gets 100%
2/ 1/ 3,4,5,10,11. $10 gets 200%

Race 8 (Flexi Trifecta for $50)Click here to bet on this race now
I can only envisage two possible scenarios here; either Prettylilangeleyes (1)  hold up early and then hands up to Elegant Image (5) giving herself a great chance for running second or she parks the favourite, leaving herself vulnerable to being crushed and almost insuring Tender Don (6) fills the silver medal role. Take the Tricks below and you should cover both scenarios.

5/ 1,6/ 1,2,4,6,7,8. $50 gets 500%

Race 9 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)Click here to bet on this race now
This is the second of tonight’s Claiming Masters heats and it looks a three horse race between Thirsty Mach (1), Kotare Roland (7) and Cut For an Ace (8). That trio may well comprise the Trifecta but so long as they fill the top two position s between then we should be winning some cabbage.

1,7,8/ 1,7,8/ 1,6,7,8. $36 gets 300%
1,7,8/ 1,7,8/ 2,4. $14 gets 116.67%

The Quads ($100 outlay)Click here to bet on the Quaddie now.
1/ 3,6,8,10/ 4,5,7,8,11/ 8. $20 gets 100%
1/ 3,6,8,10/ 1,3,7,10/ 8. $4 gets 25%
2,3,5,10/ 3,6,8,10/ 4,5,7,8,11/ 8. $16 gets 20%
1/ 3,6,8,10/ 4,5,7,8,11/ 4,6,7. $30 gets 50%
1/ 3,6,8,10/ 1,3,7,10/ 4,6,7. $6 gets 12.5%
2,3,5,10/ 3,6,8,10/ 4,5,7,8,11/ 4,6,7. $24 gets 10%

The Game Plan for Melton –  with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV)
Best Bets
(Race 2 No 1 Johnny Armbros $50 Win) $2.70 Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy produced a big run to finish second in the heat. He was taken off the gate at the start then came with sustained run three wide for the last lap.  From the good draw he will most likely end up on the back of expected leader Bit of Babe (3) and then run past him via the sprint lane.

(Race 10 No 8 El Paco $50 Win) $2 Click here to bet on this horse now
This blokes effort to finish as close as he did last start was excellent based on the fact he was severely checked at the start and then he was forced to work very hard chasing a very hot pace set in front. The small field will be in his favour here and he shouldn’t have much trouble overcoming his 10m handicap.

Best Roughie
(Race 8 No 1 Prettylilangeleyes $20 Win) $21 Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare returned to form two runs back with a solid run behind tonight’s favourite Elegant Image. Then last start chased home Tender Don who is also engaged tonight and wasn’t beaten far. From the good draw expect her to begin well then hand up the lead to Elegant Image and at $21 looks great value. 

The Money Race
Race 8 (Flexi First Fours $50) Click here to bet on this race now
5/ 1/ 6/ 2,3,4,8  $25 gets 625%
5/ 1/ 2,3,4,8/ 6  $12.50 gets 312.5%
5/ 6/ 1/ 2,3,4,8  $12.50 gets 312.5%

Quaddies x2 Click here to bet on the Quaddie now.
1/ 3,8,10/ 4,5,7/ 6,8  $50 gets 277.78 %
2,4,5,10/ 3,8,10/ 4,5,7/ 6,8  $50 gets 69.44%
Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Andy Gath
Best Chance
Elegant Image (Race 8 no.5) $1.30 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“Last time in he was never quite right; he didn’t trot 100% even though he was placed in the Great Southern Star and about three other Group 1 races.

“He was always just on half-power, he had a few issues with his back and his knees that were holding him back a little bit but now he’s trotting really smoothly and you can see what he can do when he puts it all together.”

Western Rockstar (Race 4 no.1) $2.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
"All his runs have been good for us – he overraced last start but we were still happy. If he can lead from the one he would be hard to beat. It lacks a little bit of depth so if he finds the top you’d be disappointed if he couldn’t win.

"He won over $100,000 before he came to us so it’s just about getting him back to his best.”

Renaissance Man (Race 5 no.10) $4 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“His two trials have been good and his work has been pretty good. We just want to get some consistency in his performance; we don’t have many in work that can do what he does.

“You’ve got to hope they go hard, which generally they do over the shorts.”

Franco Jackson (Race 6 no.4) $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He is a nice honest horse who has pretty good stand start form, he generally gets away pretty good and if he is handy he looks an each way chance.”

Caribbean Blaster (Race 7 no.8) $2 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He probably has a little bit (improved at home) but if Renaissance Man goes bad we are in trouble because he’s been beating him.

“It’s probably not an ideal draw but being first-up atleast we’re not forced to go forward. If we had have drawn five and Smoken Up was in seven then our hand would have been forced a little bit.

“He doesn’t have to burn early and then we’ve got options, he can make his own luck from back there.

“He is very fit and very well, he’s going into the race pretty close to the mark so we expect him to race close to his best.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Mister Onetwo: 1:54.99

Fastest Last Half – Flyin Fox: 55.29secs

Fastest Last Quarter – Broadways Best: 26.64secs
Sectional Superstar
Cut For An Ace (Race 9 no.8) – $2.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
In a much stronger race last week, this guy rattled home in the quickest last half and last quarter of the race.

He is the only horse drawn on the second row so he can either hunt up and hope the polemarker holds them out, or quickly move to the running line and find the breeze midrace.

Either way he is down in class and should be very hard to beat tonight.
Speed Maps

Race 1

There is plenty of speed off the front line here with NIQUERO (2), ADVANCE TO GO (3), KICKITTOCHRIS (4), PEACES OF YOU (6) and AMAZING KANO (7) all capable of rolling forward early on. PEACES OF YOU (6) is probably the quickest beginner but KICKITTOCHRIS (4) is unlikely to hand up if he kicks through early inside of her. INDI BAPU (8) is flying but will probably have to stick to the pegs which may not suit his racing style while any early burn should suit big finisher ARBER (10) and underrated sit-sprinter MISTER ORION (13).

Race 2

BIT OF A BABE (3) is a brilliant beginner and noted leader who probably looks an 80% chance of holding the top here however CLASSY GUY (7) also loves to fly the machine and will probably test her early on. JOHNNY ARMBROS (1) was terrific in his heat for this race last weekend and looks a great chance of holding the leaders back which would shuffle BLACK COUGAR (8) to three back the pegs. There is no genuine enforcer engaged but MAYBE BETTER (9) should get out and rolling at some stage and the rest will need the right run and some speed on to win.

Race 3

The most interesting early action here will concern PETE OF PAN (4) given he’s been restrained at the start in most recent runs but would have the speed to cross this lot early if Caldow so desired. Either way CATCH YOUR BREATH (6) should roll forward and find the front within the first 400m. After that SMUDGE BROMAC (7) will have the option to either sit back in transit or creep forward in search of the chair before WASHMEPOCKETS (8) takes off in search of the breeze himself. Most of the rest will get a soft trip in transit but need plenty of luck to figure in the finish.

Race 4

The start of the race will be all important here as WESTERN ROCKSTAR (1) will fight hard to keep the lead but ILLAWONG KATH (2), INDULGENT (3) and ROAD TO ROCK (5) in particular all have the speed to test him at the start. If WESTERN ROCKSTAR (1) does keep the top INDULGENT (3) should be obliged to race tough while ILLAWONG KATH (2) or OUR HORIZON (8) will drop in behind the speed. GOODTIME JASPER (10) looks the most dangerous late closer if the speed is on throughout along with GIVEUSAGRIN (11).

Race 5

This is a very quick front line but PINEVALE WILLPOWER (3) should have the toe to keep out JACCKA LUKE (4), ARTOC (5) and TOULOUSE LAUTREC (6) into the first turn. If he does then TOULOUSE LAUTREC (6) will likely sit parked with JUKEBOX MUSIC (1) and devastating sit-sprinter DONEGAL DELIGHT (8) enjoying soft peg-line trips. RENAISSANCE MAN (10) is first-up from a spell so may wait for a cart into things from his second-line draw from a horse like OUR ARLINGTON (9) or go it alone over the final 800m.

Race 6

This is an incredibly difficult race to map given three of the main hopes have never started from the strands and most of the others have a good standing start record. One thing for almost certain is that FRANCO JACKSON (4) will step well and look for the early lead while MASTER PIP (1), TYLER BROMAC (2) and OUR CALL OF DUTY (3) will also race forward early. LOMBO FLASHLIGHT (8) is another very good standing start performer sho should rush forward with a clear passage along with FL:ASH OF FREEDOM (10) while standing start novices ASTRONAUT (5), NARRA OPERATIVE (7) and JILLIBY ABLETT (11) will only need a trouble-free run to figure in the finish.

Race 7

The two class runners off the front line in MELPARK MAJOR (6) and SMOKEN UP (7) are almost certain to fire forward from their wide front line draws here fight out the early lead. If MELPARK MAJOR (6) holds SMOKEN UP (7) out then Vic Cup king CARIBBEAN BLASTER (8) may sit back and come with one long run at them but if SMOKEN UP (7) finds the front then CARIBBEAN BLASTER (8) may work around and sit parked in transit. The rest will all need luck to feature on the podium but MOTU CRUSADER (4) must be some winning hope if he can find 1x1 cover in the run.

Race 8

Some pundits are suggesting that PRETTYLILANGELEYES (1) may have both the speed and inclination to hold ELEGANT IMAGE (5) wide over the short course here but the more likely scenario should see ELEGANT IMAGE (5) work to the lead with KASYANOV (4) and then EARL OF MOT (8) rolling forward to act as the bullies. Most of the rest will sit on behind hoping for luck but TENDER DON (6) specialises in coming with one long searching run and should do just that here tonight.

Race 9

THIRSTY MACH (1) is a pretty quick beginner on his day and even with some semi-fast starters drawn outside him he should hold his rivals wide early and have options as a result. Expect KOTARE ROLAND (7) to just keep rolling forward at the start here and eventually get up in search of the lead, which he is a better than 50% chance of finding at some stage in transit. CUT FOR AN ACE (8) can either follow THIRSTY MACH (1) through at the start or more likely, circle the field in search of the breeze while the rest will all need plenty of breaks to feature late.

Race 10

Most of the front line runners here can begin quickly enough on their day although COOKEYSLASS (4) is probably the quickest and should be able to lead them around or hand up in transit. Either way EL PACO (8) looks a great chance of working forward from his 10m handicap at some stage while BRIEF GLANCE (3) is the wildcard of the race who could make a mistake and drop out as has been traditional in recent months or charge into the race menacingly with a trouble free run.