Friday, September 27, 2013

Good Form Preview - Grand Final Eve @ HQ

Adam Hamilton's Melton Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

The Best Bets ($50 Win)
Catch Your Breath (Race 3 no. 13) $3 Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke was my clear top tip from the moment last week’s heats were run. An incredibly versatile pacer, I have always contended that he is capable of mixing it in FFA class at some stage & still think he can do that under the right circumstances. Critical to his chances tonight is the fact he’s one of Australia’s quickest beginners off the second line and with NO horse in front of him due to the two early scratching’s he will blast forward in search of the front and clearly stay ahead of his major danger here Smudge Bromac (12). We’ll want black figures but if we get them then get on board.

Tender Don (Race 8 no. 5) $1.60 Click here to bet on this horse now
It was wonderful to see Brief Glance (4) return to some of his best form last weekend but there’s no guarantee it will happen again and even if it does, the above trotter has been competing well in much better class and just seems to have something on this lot right now. The small field also suits so anything better than $1.50 is OK by me.

The Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Donegal Delight (Race 5 no. 8) $5 Click here to bet on this horse now
There are three likely scenarios in this race:

1) Our Arlington (2) boots through & holds the top with Donegal Delight (8) on his back.
2) Machin Out (3) crosses Our Arlington (2) then hands up to stablemate Mark Dennis (4) leaving Donegal Delight (8) four back the poles.
3) Mark Dennis (4) crosses Our Arlington (2) leaving Donegal Delight (8) three peggin’ in transit.

In scenarios 1&3 I give our mare a massive chance of winning and I still think she can run a drum if scenario two plays out. I’m also starting to think she’ll start a lot longer than the $5 I’ve marked her in today’s Herald Sun so we may get a big result if she can jag the prize.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 2 Click here to bet on this race now
There are only two possible scenarios here as far as I can see. Either Giveusagrin (2) holds all his rivals wide and shoots for an all-the-way win from his polemarking draw or he holds up early then hands up to Mister Sheedy (7) in transit. I’m relying on the second scenario prevailing because Giveusagrin (2) thrives on sit-sprint racing, even over the mile, and if my theory plays out as expected those two horses will run the Quinella with limited hopes of even running third.

7/ 2/ 9,10. $24 gets 1200%
7/ 2/ 3,4,8. $12 gets 400%
2/ 7/ 9,10. $10 gets 500%
2/ 7/ 3,4,8. $4 gets 133.33%

Race 3 Click here to bet on this race now
History, and logic, suggests that class always prevails in this race so I’m tipping that regardless of what happens in the run, Catch Your Breath (13) will finish first or second and Smudge Bromac (12) will also take part on the podium. From there we’ll just fill out our tricks w/ the other class runners and genuinely expect a result.

13/ 12/ 6,7,10,11. $24 gets 600%
13/ 6,7,10,11/ 12. $16 gets 400%
12/ 13/ 6,7,10,11. $10 gets 250%

Race 7 Click here to bet on this race now
There’s almost always something drawing you to punt on the programme’s best race and tonight is no different. On face value there are four class runners that should be fighting out the finish. I’m not sure we’ll make our fortune off the race but at least we’ll be in it and w/ a dash of luck we may well double our outlay.

1,3,11,12 Boxed. $24 gets 100%
1,3,11,12/ 1,3,11,12/ 2,4,5. $18 gets 50%
1,3,11,12/ 1,3,11,12/ 6,8. $8 gets 33.33%

The Quaddies (x3)Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
2,4,5,10/ 2,7,8/ 5,6,7,10,13/ 1,3,11,12. $60 gets 25%
2,4,5,10/ 3,13/ 5,6,7,10,13/ 1,3,11,12. $16 gets 10%
3,6,8,9/ 2,7,8/ 5,6,7,10,13/ 1,3,11,12. $24 gets 10%

The Game Plan for Melton with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).

Best Bets ($50 Win)
(Race 1 No 2 Brylin Crescent ) $3.50 Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare sat parked here two runs back and fought on bravely in the lane. Last start she took on the pacers in a small field at Kilmore and almost wore them down in the straight. I think she will have enough speed to head off Donkiri at the start and if she does she will be hard to run down. 

(Race 9 No 5 Monica My Dear) $2.80 Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare has been very brave in defeat at her last two starts where she has had to do work outside the leader. She might have to sit outside the leader again because there is some speed drawn inside her but I think she has a class edge on this field and is good enough to win parked if she can’t find the lead.

Best Value ($20w/$30p)
(Race 6 No 2 Cheveyo) $14Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy showed enough speed to find the lead here over the sprint trip here two runs back and led throughout in very quick time at big odds. He was forced back from the wide draw last start when he couldn’t get in from his wide draw.  He picked up some ground late between runners after settling four back along the pegs but was never going to figure from that position. He is drawn in close tonight and looks good value at $14.

Quaddie Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
2,3,4,5,9/ 2,7,13/ 2,5,6,7/ 3,11,12 $100 gets 55.56%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Glenn Douglas
*To listen to Glenn Douglas’s full interview on RSN Winners with Nadia Horne, simply click here.

Best Chance
Vinni Gambino (Race 6 no.1) $16 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s probably a horse that needs to draw well in mobiles and with the pole draw I’m thinking he is a chance. His numerical form probably doesn’t read well but he hit the line very hard in behind them. He can do what he likes; either lead or hand up and he’ll be hitting the line strong.

“I think at rough odds he’s got a good draw and should be one to watch.”

Giveusagrin (Race 2 no.2) $4 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s drawn well and his last three or four have been very consistent, over the race and distance it suits. He has gate speed so he should be there again.”

Run Forrest (Race 2 no.3) $12 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a funny horse, he’s a bit cantankerous, I must have rubbed off on him a bit. He’s not the easiest horse to drive and he does get tugging but as long as he settles he won’t be far away. It’s a nice class for him so he should be thereabouts somewhere.”

Please Don’t Talk (Race 4 no.3) $8.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s knocking on the door at Melton but she needs the aid of a nice draw and this week we’ve got that. Last time she had a nice draw she ran second so we are hoping she gets a soft run again.”

Narkoola (Race 4 no.11) $34 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“It was very disappointing last time. We’ve changed a few things at home but 11 at Tabcorp Park makes it tough, we’ll just be hoping for some improvement.”

Jordylan (Race 5 no.9) $26 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He hasn’t been too bad, he’s been a little bit luckless and he’s getting fit now. He had an easier assignment at Adelaide first up. I’m happy with the way he’s going and we’ll be expecting a more forward showing this week.”

Pacific Soul (Race 5 no.10) $34 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s an honest, old horse who keeps his form where he finds it and you’d expect him to keep going now.”

Our Call Of Duty (Race 6 no.4) $21 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a nice type of horse that’s racing well against good horses. He’ll need the luck to go his way, the driver will need to weave some magic on him.

Born Again Sassy (Race 7 no.5) $14 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s racing really well, she came through the Sires and Breeders Crown and since then she’s gone gangbusters, I thought her last run has been as good as any, one of the runs of her career. She’s got gate speed and she seems a bit tougher this time so even if she’s can’t get across them I think she has proven she can do it tough.

Saint Flash (Race 7 no.11) $5 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He has a terrible draw but he did a wonderful job last season and he’s starting to come along so we will get him ready for the Country Cups.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Jukebox Music: 1:53.91

Fastest Last Half – Caribbean Blaster: 55.18secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Action Royale: 27.27secs

Sectional Superstar
Tender Don (Race 8 no.5)
– $2.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Although this guy had the trail up on Elegant Image last week, he essentially ran as good – if not better – sectionals to a horse that could develop into Australasia’s best trotter.
His 57.43sec last half and 28.80sec last quarter weren’t bettered by any trotter on the night, including his main danger in this race, Brief Glance.

If he can work across them or even if he has to sit parked it will take a mighty effort to beat this inform squaregaiter tonight.

Precedents & Pointers
The University Foods Claiming Masters
·         Four editions @ Tabcorp Park Melton
·         All four winners have come from the back row (11, 9, 9, 13). Throughout history of the race at Moonee Valley runners from the back row (i.e. higher priced claimers) also dominated.
·         Age of winners between varies between 6 & 10YO’s so no real significance.
·         Interestingly only 1 of the 4 won previous winners won their heat the week before, that being Prince Bonton in 2009 (Catch Your Breath and Kotare Roland the two attempting it this year).
·         Only 1 double figure winner (Cincinnati Kid in 2011 - $16.50). Two were favourites and the other at $6.70.
·         Appears that handicapping by claiming price compresses the handicaps to such a point that higher priced horses get into the race well. Usually winners have made early move and been too strong.
·         In 14 editions of this race the leading drivers are:
o   Brian Gath & Chris Alford (4 wins a piece)
o   Chris Alford going for 5 wins on Catch Your Breath
·         This year’s renewal  the horses that fit the bill are numbers 10, 11, 12, 13.
·         Tips 12, 13, 11, 10.

Speed Maps

Race 1
Most of the early pace here comes from the inside gates with DONKIRI (1), BRYLIN CRESCENT (2) & GOLDSTAR INVASION (3) all capable of mustering good early speed. Expect DONKIRI (1) to hold her rivals wide early on here but there’s a great chance she’ll hand up to BRYLIN CRESCENT (2) if Aiken won’t take no for an answer. Both ways POSIMISTIC (8) will get the soft peg-line trip she loves while MICHAEL THOMAS (10) may be obliged to make a mid-race move and ABBOTSHALL (7) will rely on a hectic tempo to ambush his rivals in the lane.

Race 2
GIVEUSAGRIN (2) virtually holds the key to this race because he should have the speed to lead this lot early and from there he can shoot for pillar-to-post success or hand the top to an appropriate adversary which would most likely be MISTER SHEEDY (7). If GIVEUSAGRIN (2) parks MISTER SHEEDY (7) the pace will be solid throughout, playing into the hands of JACCKA LUKE (9) and STIRLING POINT (10) late but if he hands up the lead then it should be a peg-dominated affair where HEEZABIT RUSTY (8) may even run a place.

Race 3
With a lack of genuine pace off the front line here expect one of Australia’s fastest second line beginners, CATCH YOUR BREATH (13) to be challenging for the early lead with WATERHORSE (1), THATS MISTER ALI (6) and CUT FOR AN ACE (7) within 200m of the start. If he does lob the top the rest could be battling for second-place prizemoney although WASHMEPOCKETS (10), KOTARE ROLAND (11) & SMUDGE BROMAC (11) are all versatile enough to make mid-race moves or come with one run late so all should be in the firing line over the final 600m tonight.

Race 4
Given the sprint distance and plethora of the speed off the front line there could be some genuine fireworks at the start here. FAIREST ONE YOU ARE (4) is probably the quickest beginner engaged but VILLAGE PEACH (2), PLEASE DON’T TALK (3), MISS PRECIOUS MACH (5) & PEACES OF YOU (6) can also rip out early. Whoever ends up finding the front ROSA MACH (8) should enjoy the cosy inside run she relishes while her stablemate JASMINE SHEFFIELD (9) & TARA TOPLADY (10) will be dangerous late closers if the lead-time and first split are quick enough to bring them into the race.

Race 5
OUR ARLINGTON (2) musters speed pretty well off the arm but he will be severely tested early here by fast starting stablemates MACHIN OUT (3) and MARK DENNIS (4). If OUR ARLINGTON (2) holds up early on then DONEGAL DELIGHT (8) should get a dream trip in behind the leader with BETTOR GIVE IT (7) and JILLIBY ABLETT (13) playing enforcers and HOSTILE GRINS (6) coming into things as a dangerous sit-sprinter but if one of the two Lance Justice-horses lead then DONEGAL DELIGHT (8) will be shuffled well back and MACHIN OUT (3) in particular becomes a big winning hope.

Race 6
This is yet another race where they should go ballistic early on with CHEVEYO (2), INDI BAPU (5), ASTRONAUT (6) and GOODTIME JASPER (7) all best placed from the head of affairs and all likely to shoot forward early in search of the premier role. ASTRONAUT (6) is marginally most likely to get the early lead but if they go too quickly after the start then brutal Tassie enforcer HUGO PLAY (10) and the talented WESTERN ROCKSTAR (13) look best placed to drop on their rivals in the lane.

Race 7
This is getting repetitive, but tonight’s fast class race also boasts a stack of front line speed with JADAHSON (3), PINEVALE WILLPOWER (4) and BORN AGAIN SASSY (5) all particularly quick off the mobile arm and all best placed form the head of affairs. Expect JADAHSON (3) and PINEAVLE WILLPOWER (4) to fight for the front with the latter horse slightly favoured to assume control. BELLAS DELIGHT (1) will be sweating on what happens early as she could end up either behind the leader or three back the pegs if she can’t get off the inside while SAINT FLASH (11) & ABETTORPUNT (12) are the class second lien runners who can either make a mid-race move or come with one run late.

Race 8
The early speed battle here should feature PRETTYLILANGELEYES (1) and JINGLING SILVER (2) and should be over soon after it’s begun. Whichever of those two gets the ascendancy, expect TENDER DON (5) to cruise up in search of the lead or the breeze while BRIEF GLANCE (4) should sit back and come with one withering burst along with the underrated MAORIS POCKET (6).

Race 9

Most of the front line runners here have some early toe but expect PARIS ROSE (1) and MONICA MY DEAR (5) to battle it out for the lead once the early dust has settled. If PARIS ROSE (1) leads then MONICA MY DEAR (5) should sit parked with late bloomer WILL ATONE (9) the most dangerous late closer but MONICA MY DEAR (5) becomes the one to beat if she lobs the top.

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