Thursday, September 5, 2013

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Shepparton

The Game Plan for Shepparton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s nice to be back in the comfort of my favourite Victorian track after a couple of dirty nights at Kilmore and Terang and even though this meeting is difficult I really think we can win some cash. Overall it’s going to be a pretty conservative plan in terms of the number of bets we have but we’re going to have a genuine dig at two Best Value players, two Money Races and some Quads, so let’s win some cabbage ahead of a monster weekend of sport!

Best Value/ Black Figure Thursday ($25 Each Way)
Albert Austin (Race 1 no. 1) $3.20
It may sound funny to suggest I’ve been following a horse who has placed just once this season and hasn’t won since February 2012, but this bloke has been charging home at his last couple and should go mighty close here if he lobs no worse than the leaders back in transit.

Sophies Ideal (Race 4 no. 2) $2.80
The reason I like this race so much is that Aqua Luvvy (1), Mister Desirable (4) and Kensington Palace (7) all have great motivation to rattle out as fast as they can here and the first of those horses has been pulling hard of late so if Daniel Jack drops out early with this talented mare and uses her superior late speed I think she’ll be suited right down to the ground.

The Money Races
Race 2
There are only two possible scenarios that I can envisage here. In the first Passionate Embrace (1) will boot through and hold the top w/ Quick Jet (8) on his back and in the other Maybe Better (4) will head them all off early in the race. Either way I think they’ll dominate proceedings w/ Miss Toolern Vale (6) and Illawong Fantasia (7) the other ones likely to fill up the podium.

Scenario 1 (Flexi Trifectas)
1,8/ 1,8/ 4,6,7. $36 gets 600%
1,8/ 4,6,7/ 1,8. $12 gets 200%

Scenario 2 (Flexi Trifectas)
1,4,8 Boxed. $24 gets 400%
1,4,8/ 1,4,8/ 6,7. $12 gets 100%
1,4,8/ 6,7/ 1,4,6,7,8. $16 gets 88.89%

Race 4 (Flexi Trifectas)
This race is actually more open than it may first appear but I still think the two Jackson Painting runners in Aqua Luvvy (1) and Caribbean Striker (6) are the biggest threats to Sophies Ideal (2) and they are likely to fight out the finish.

1,2,6/ 1,2,6/ 1,2,4,6,7,8. $32 gets 133.33%
1,2,6/ 4,7,8/ 1,2,6. $12 gets 66.67%
1,2,6/ 4,7,8/ 4,7,8.  $6 gets 33.33%

The Quads (x2)
1,2,6/ 3,4,10/ 4/ 1,2,5,6,8,9,10,11. $72 for 100%
1,2,6/ 3,4,10/ 6,7,11/ 1,2,5,6,8,9,10,11. $28 gets 12.96%

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