Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Good Form Preview - Tuesday @ Kilmore

The Game Plan for Kilmore – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I’ve busted a gut trying to find the winners at Kilmore but the truth is we’ll have to cherry pick our bets and play to our strengths if we’re to get out of tonight’s programme on top. That being said, I’m going to target a four-legged Formula 3 which may well pay something plus one Money Race and a Quartet of Quads. Quaddies have been the way to go in recent days. In fact we’ve snared 7 Quads in the past 7 days for a total profit of over $1500 so I’m very keen to keep that hot streak going tonight.

Best Bets/ Formula 3 ($50 gets 12.5 units)
This is a riskier multi than normal but higher risk means higher reward so even if only get the three legs required we should still turn a profit w/ any luck at all.

Jialiner (Race 1 no. 8) $2.80
This guy has actually been finishing his races off really well and while he’ll need some luck here from the draw, if he gets it I can’t see them holding him out.

Supersub (Race 2 no. 4) $2.20
I must say this bet is by process of elimination as none of this bloke’s rivals look like they’re going well enough to win and if he’s within 8m of the lead going down the back the final time I think he’ll just get past them in the lane.

Regal Knight (Race 4 no. 2) $3.20
Unfortunately this bloke has not trialled for his return but he is a classy animal at his best and Andy Gath has his team going gangbusters right now. As a result I think he’s the testing material in a small but tricky race.

Colby Reilly (Race 6 no. 3) $1.60
To be honest, if this bloke finds the front I cannot see how he gets beaten. If he goes back like last time then circumstances could play against him but he’s got much more scope than his rivals here and should be winning regardless.

The Money Race – Race 6 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)
These wagers – along w/ tonight’s Quad – are all based around the belief that Colby Reilly (3) can go back or forward at the start and still prove too good. In an ideal world we’d like to see him roll forward because that would increase the chance of a peg-dominated First 4 & get us a bigger result but either way I think one of these four combos should lob.

3/ 1,9/ 1,4,5,9/ 1,4,5,9. $26 gets 216.67%
3/ 4,5/ 1,4,5,9/ 1,4,5,9. $12 gets 100%
3/ 1,9/ 1,4,5,9/ 2,6,7. $9 gets 50%
3/ 4,5/ 1,4,5,9/ 2,6,7. $3 gets 16.67%

The Quads (x4)
2,4/ 4,11/ 3/ 1,4,6,7,12,13. $48 gets 200%
2,4/ 1,6,8,9,10/ 3/ 1,4,6,7,12,13. $30 gets 50%
1,5,6/ 4,11/ 3/ 1,4,6,7,12,13. $18 gets 50%
1,5,6/ 1,6,8,9,10/ 3/ 1,4,6,7,12,13. $4 gets 4.44%

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