Good Form Preview - Monday @ Yarra Valley

The Game Plan for Yarra Valley – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
As a general rule, I love betting at Yarra Valley. Not only is it Victoria’s most picturesque track, it’s also one of our fairest courses, however things haven’t been made easy by some very confusing races across today’s eight race card. To be honest, I could not find one horse I’d lob $100 on straight out (apart from Macho Comacho, who’ll be $1.10) so we’re going to play for a price w/ 4 Best Value Bets. 4 Best Roughies and just as many Quads, so let’s get started on another week of punting!

Best Value ($15 x $10)

Hunzarella (Race 4 no. 4) $6.50
The start will be all-important here because this girl has very good gate speed and if she can cross over in the first 100m there is neither a great deal of obvious pressure or a super dangerous late closer among her rivals.

Longtan Luke (Race 8 no. 5) $5.50

This guy is back from a fruitful few runs w/ Shane Tritton up in NSW & while there are always question marks when horses in his situation return to Vic, as long as they don’t put him up a silly price ($2.50 or shorter) then he is worth a crack given the lead should be his and he’s low flying right now.

Best Roughies ($5 x$20)

Adalia Dash (Race 3 no. 2) $23
I fully acknowledge that Maidstone Miss (9) is bordering on moraldom here but if you’re looking for one at a massive price who may well run a drum at very juicy odds then she is that horse. An underrated trotter, she has good manners form the stand and if she’s within striking distance on straightening here she can certainly fill a hole today.

Kyvalley Rancher (Race 3 no. 4) $10

This guy is in the very same race as Adalia Dash (2) and he is also worth of something the win and plenty the place based on his big reputation, the fact that punters heavily backed him to beat smart stablemate Did I Imagine That last start and that Chris Lang is driving him in preference to talented stablemate Kyvalley Castle (11). All that might amount to nothing but if you’re getting a price here he’s still worth an investment.

Bronze Destiny (Race 5 no. 6) $10

Once again, this guy is not my top tip but he has been enjoying a great preparation and critically, he should be able to roll forward here, land the 1x1 or the chair and he is always dangerous in either of those roles.

Joelles Dream (Race 7 no. 9) $13

This mare is only lightly raced but she’s been showing something for a while and her last start success when untouched to win in arrogant fashion was simply outstanding. Also in her favour is the strong early speed expected here, so if they sizzle through the first quarter here rely on her to finish w/ conviction in the lane.

The Quads (x4)

2,3,4,6,7,9/ 1/ 7/ 3,9. $40 gets 333.33%
2,3,4,6,7,9/ 3,6,8/ 7/ 3,9. $36 gets 100%
2,3,4,6,7,9/ 1/ 7/ 1,5,8,10. $12 gets 50%
2,3,4,6,7,9/ 3,6,8/ 7/ 1,5,8,10. $12 gets 16.67%