Saturday, September 7, 2013

Good Form Preview - Saturday night @ Bray

The Game Plan for Ballarat – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

I… am… pumped! This is a terrific betting card with winners galore and a great chance for us to jag a big collect. In all I have found six horses that I expect to win. Exactly how you attack those runners is entirely up to you but I will be having a little two-horse All-Up to get us started before throwing the rest in a Formula 3. I’ll also be hammering two juicy Money Races and having a serious dig at some Quads. Now we have a Game Plan, let’s get started…

Best Bets/ Early All-Up or Running Double ($50)
Goodtime Veejay (Race 1 no. 6) $1.60

I wasn’t absolutely sold on this bloke a few weeks back but he’s gone way up in my estimation after some dominant recent performances and whether he bullies his way to the lead here or sits parked in transit I just think he’ll be far too good.

Fifth And Broadway (Race 2 no. 6) $1.70
Plenty might think this is a very risky bet as she doesn’t love to win, but this mare has definitely found her right race here and should be able to cruise across this field and lead them a very merry dance.

Next Best Bets/ Formula 3 ($50 gets 12.5 units)

Our Summer Wind (Race 6 no. 1) $2.20
There’s little doubt in my mind that this guy is the best horse engaged and that the only risk with him is if he gets crossed early and never gets out. He has the great Gavin Lang to offset that possibility though and it might just mean we’ll get better odds.

Ourbellabro (Race 5 no. 5) $2.80
Team Miles have always had a big opinion of this mare and she is very good when she is on song. The big advantage for her here is that she generally races best in front and with hand-up horses drawn inside her she should be bullying her way to the top and proving much too strong if she does.

Dell Boy (Race 8 no. 5) $1.50
This bloke isn’t completely foolproof but if he does everything right then he can lob anywhere in this small field and drill them in the lane.

Exotic Native (Race 9 no. 11)
I actually backed this fellow last time out in a much stronger Melton affair where he produced an extraordinary effort after galloping in the early stages. He clearly has tricks but he’s also won a Tabcorp Park trial since that effort and w/ C Alford in the cart it would be a shock to see him get rolled.

The Money Races (Flexi Trifectas for $100)

Race 1

As mentioned above, I am super keen on Goodtime Veejay (6) and I was disappointed enough in the run of Jack Kelly (7) last time out to suggest he’s no moral of running second. Therefore I can sniff some value via the below combinations.
6/ 1,5,7,9/ 1,5,7,9. $72 gets 600%
6/ 1,5,7,9/ 8,10. $28 gets 350%

Race 6
I’ve also mentioned in the Best Bets section that Our Summer Wind (1) is the one to beat and even if he gets strung up in traffic I reckon he’ll run second at worst. There are also limited chances outside of him so play the Tricks below and we should get a result.

1/ 3,5,12/ 3,5,6,8,10,12. $60 gets 400%
1/ 6,10/ 3,5,6,8,10,12. $10 gets 83.33%
3,5,12/ 1/ 3,5,6,8,10,12. $30 gets 200%

Quaddies (x5)
1,4,7/ 5,6/ 1/ 5. $24 gets 400%
1,4,7/ 5,6/ 3,5,12/ 5. $18 gets 100%
1,4,7/ 5,6/ 1/ 2,4,8,11,12. $30 gets 100%
1,4,7/ 1,2,4/ 1/ 5. $9 gets 100%
1,4,7/ 4,5,6/ 1,3,5,12/ 5,8,11,12. $19 gets 13.19%




No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.