Friday, September 20, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
After a reasonably successful week I’m ready to open the shoulders @ Melton tonight. On paper it’s a pretty attractive punting programme and in total I’ll be attacking one Best Bet, a Formula 2 w/ my next 3 Best Bets, 4 Money Races and half a dozen Quads. I’ll be out at Melton SKY hosting tonight so hopefully we can deliver a few winners both via this forum and also trackside this evening!

The Best Bet
Catch Your Breath (Race 3 no. 6) $1.90 ($50 Win)Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has always outstanding ability and given he’s just kept improving w/ every run for Dean Braun I think he’s sherry ripe for this assignment tonight, particularly as he should fire to the front and assume a critical advantage over the equally talented Smudge Bromac (7) early in the race.

The Next Best Bets/ Formula 2 ($60 gets 20 units)
If everything goes to plan I’d be expecting all three of these to win but if one happens to get rolled I’m taking the Formula 2 as insurance.

Arber (Race 1 no. 10) $3 Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke has relished a drop in grade for new trainer Tim Bolitho and will only need a half reasonable lead time from the frontrunners to overwhelm his rivals in the lane.

Western Rockstar (Race 4 no. 1) $2.50Click here to bet on this horse now
The start will be important for this bloke because if he holds the early lead as expected he should be winning but if not he’s a lot more vulnerable for sure.

Elegant Image (Race 8 no. 5) $1.30 TAB fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
I’d be backing this bloke on the tote because his Fixed Odds price is a little bit silly but if he rolls to the lead as expected they won’t be running him down and even if he has to sit parked he’s still the one to beat.

The Money Races
Race 3 ($70 Flexi Trifectas) Click here to bet on this race now
As mentioned above, Catch Your Breath (6) looks very close to a good thing for mine and there’s little doubt that Smudge Bromac (7) will run a place behind him here so play the four Tricks below and have a decent crack.

6/ 7/ 8. $20 gets 2000%
6/ 7/ 2,3,4. $30 gets 1000%
6/ 8/ 7. $10 gets 1000%
6/ 2,3,4/ 7. $10 gets 333.33%

Race 4 ($60 Flexi Trifectas)Click here to bet on this race now
This is very much a risky proposition as it’s built upon an abstract theory but if things pan out as I imagine it could be a very profitable race for us. The theory is that Western Rockstar (1) will do enough to boot through and hold the early lead and that Illawong Kath (2) will test the polemarker early before dropping in behind him ahead of Our Horizon (8). If that scenario prevails one of these Tricks should lob and we may even walk away a winner if it doesn’t.

1/ 2/ 3,4,5,10,11. $20 gets 400%
1/ 3,4,5,10,11/ 2. $10 gets 200%
1/ 3,4,5,10,11/ 3,4,5,10,11. $20 gets 100%
2/ 1/ 3,4,5,10,11. $10 gets 200%

Race 8 (Flexi Trifecta for $50)Click here to bet on this race now
I can only envisage two possible scenarios here; either Prettylilangeleyes (1)  hold up early and then hands up to Elegant Image (5) giving herself a great chance for running second or she parks the favourite, leaving herself vulnerable to being crushed and almost insuring Tender Don (6) fills the silver medal role. Take the Tricks below and you should cover both scenarios.

5/ 1,6/ 1,2,4,6,7,8. $50 gets 500%

Race 9 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)Click here to bet on this race now
This is the second of tonight’s Claiming Masters heats and it looks a three horse race between Thirsty Mach (1), Kotare Roland (7) and Cut For an Ace (8). That trio may well comprise the Trifecta but so long as they fill the top two position s between then we should be winning some cabbage.

1,7,8/ 1,7,8/ 1,6,7,8. $36 gets 300%
1,7,8/ 1,7,8/ 2,4. $14 gets 116.67%

The Quads ($100 outlay)Click here to bet on the Quaddie now.
1/ 3,6,8,10/ 4,5,7,8,11/ 8. $20 gets 100%
1/ 3,6,8,10/ 1,3,7,10/ 8. $4 gets 25%
2,3,5,10/ 3,6,8,10/ 4,5,7,8,11/ 8. $16 gets 20%
1/ 3,6,8,10/ 4,5,7,8,11/ 4,6,7. $30 gets 50%
1/ 3,6,8,10/ 1,3,7,10/ 4,6,7. $6 gets 12.5%
2,3,5,10/ 3,6,8,10/ 4,5,7,8,11/ 4,6,7. $24 gets 10%

The Game Plan for Melton –  with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV)
Best Bets
(Race 2 No 1 Johnny Armbros $50 Win) $2.70 Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy produced a big run to finish second in the heat. He was taken off the gate at the start then came with sustained run three wide for the last lap.  From the good draw he will most likely end up on the back of expected leader Bit of Babe (3) and then run past him via the sprint lane.

(Race 10 No 8 El Paco $50 Win) $2 Click here to bet on this horse now
This blokes effort to finish as close as he did last start was excellent based on the fact he was severely checked at the start and then he was forced to work very hard chasing a very hot pace set in front. The small field will be in his favour here and he shouldn’t have much trouble overcoming his 10m handicap.

Best Roughie
(Race 8 No 1 Prettylilangeleyes $20 Win) $21 Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare returned to form two runs back with a solid run behind tonight’s favourite Elegant Image. Then last start chased home Tender Don who is also engaged tonight and wasn’t beaten far. From the good draw expect her to begin well then hand up the lead to Elegant Image and at $21 looks great value. 

The Money Race
Race 8 (Flexi First Fours $50) Click here to bet on this race now
5/ 1/ 6/ 2,3,4,8  $25 gets 625%
5/ 1/ 2,3,4,8/ 6  $12.50 gets 312.5%
5/ 6/ 1/ 2,3,4,8  $12.50 gets 312.5%

Quaddies x2 Click here to bet on the Quaddie now.
1/ 3,8,10/ 4,5,7/ 6,8  $50 gets 277.78 %
2,4,5,10/ 3,8,10/ 4,5,7/ 6,8  $50 gets 69.44%
Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Andy Gath
Best Chance
Elegant Image (Race 8 no.5) $1.30 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“Last time in he was never quite right; he didn’t trot 100% even though he was placed in the Great Southern Star and about three other Group 1 races.

“He was always just on half-power, he had a few issues with his back and his knees that were holding him back a little bit but now he’s trotting really smoothly and you can see what he can do when he puts it all together.”

Western Rockstar (Race 4 no.1) $2.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
"All his runs have been good for us – he overraced last start but we were still happy. If he can lead from the one he would be hard to beat. It lacks a little bit of depth so if he finds the top you’d be disappointed if he couldn’t win.

"He won over $100,000 before he came to us so it’s just about getting him back to his best.”

Renaissance Man (Race 5 no.10) $4 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“His two trials have been good and his work has been pretty good. We just want to get some consistency in his performance; we don’t have many in work that can do what he does.

“You’ve got to hope they go hard, which generally they do over the shorts.”

Franco Jackson (Race 6 no.4) $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He is a nice honest horse who has pretty good stand start form, he generally gets away pretty good and if he is handy he looks an each way chance.”

Caribbean Blaster (Race 7 no.8) $2 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He probably has a little bit (improved at home) but if Renaissance Man goes bad we are in trouble because he’s been beating him.

“It’s probably not an ideal draw but being first-up atleast we’re not forced to go forward. If we had have drawn five and Smoken Up was in seven then our hand would have been forced a little bit.

“He doesn’t have to burn early and then we’ve got options, he can make his own luck from back there.

“He is very fit and very well, he’s going into the race pretty close to the mark so we expect him to race close to his best.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Mister Onetwo: 1:54.99

Fastest Last Half – Flyin Fox: 55.29secs

Fastest Last Quarter – Broadways Best: 26.64secs
Sectional Superstar
Cut For An Ace (Race 9 no.8) – $2.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
In a much stronger race last week, this guy rattled home in the quickest last half and last quarter of the race.

He is the only horse drawn on the second row so he can either hunt up and hope the polemarker holds them out, or quickly move to the running line and find the breeze midrace.

Either way he is down in class and should be very hard to beat tonight.
Speed Maps

Race 1

There is plenty of speed off the front line here with NIQUERO (2), ADVANCE TO GO (3), KICKITTOCHRIS (4), PEACES OF YOU (6) and AMAZING KANO (7) all capable of rolling forward early on. PEACES OF YOU (6) is probably the quickest beginner but KICKITTOCHRIS (4) is unlikely to hand up if he kicks through early inside of her. INDI BAPU (8) is flying but will probably have to stick to the pegs which may not suit his racing style while any early burn should suit big finisher ARBER (10) and underrated sit-sprinter MISTER ORION (13).

Race 2

BIT OF A BABE (3) is a brilliant beginner and noted leader who probably looks an 80% chance of holding the top here however CLASSY GUY (7) also loves to fly the machine and will probably test her early on. JOHNNY ARMBROS (1) was terrific in his heat for this race last weekend and looks a great chance of holding the leaders back which would shuffle BLACK COUGAR (8) to three back the pegs. There is no genuine enforcer engaged but MAYBE BETTER (9) should get out and rolling at some stage and the rest will need the right run and some speed on to win.

Race 3

The most interesting early action here will concern PETE OF PAN (4) given he’s been restrained at the start in most recent runs but would have the speed to cross this lot early if Caldow so desired. Either way CATCH YOUR BREATH (6) should roll forward and find the front within the first 400m. After that SMUDGE BROMAC (7) will have the option to either sit back in transit or creep forward in search of the chair before WASHMEPOCKETS (8) takes off in search of the breeze himself. Most of the rest will get a soft trip in transit but need plenty of luck to figure in the finish.

Race 4

The start of the race will be all important here as WESTERN ROCKSTAR (1) will fight hard to keep the lead but ILLAWONG KATH (2), INDULGENT (3) and ROAD TO ROCK (5) in particular all have the speed to test him at the start. If WESTERN ROCKSTAR (1) does keep the top INDULGENT (3) should be obliged to race tough while ILLAWONG KATH (2) or OUR HORIZON (8) will drop in behind the speed. GOODTIME JASPER (10) looks the most dangerous late closer if the speed is on throughout along with GIVEUSAGRIN (11).

Race 5

This is a very quick front line but PINEVALE WILLPOWER (3) should have the toe to keep out JACCKA LUKE (4), ARTOC (5) and TOULOUSE LAUTREC (6) into the first turn. If he does then TOULOUSE LAUTREC (6) will likely sit parked with JUKEBOX MUSIC (1) and devastating sit-sprinter DONEGAL DELIGHT (8) enjoying soft peg-line trips. RENAISSANCE MAN (10) is first-up from a spell so may wait for a cart into things from his second-line draw from a horse like OUR ARLINGTON (9) or go it alone over the final 800m.

Race 6

This is an incredibly difficult race to map given three of the main hopes have never started from the strands and most of the others have a good standing start record. One thing for almost certain is that FRANCO JACKSON (4) will step well and look for the early lead while MASTER PIP (1), TYLER BROMAC (2) and OUR CALL OF DUTY (3) will also race forward early. LOMBO FLASHLIGHT (8) is another very good standing start performer sho should rush forward with a clear passage along with FL:ASH OF FREEDOM (10) while standing start novices ASTRONAUT (5), NARRA OPERATIVE (7) and JILLIBY ABLETT (11) will only need a trouble-free run to figure in the finish.

Race 7

The two class runners off the front line in MELPARK MAJOR (6) and SMOKEN UP (7) are almost certain to fire forward from their wide front line draws here fight out the early lead. If MELPARK MAJOR (6) holds SMOKEN UP (7) out then Vic Cup king CARIBBEAN BLASTER (8) may sit back and come with one long run at them but if SMOKEN UP (7) finds the front then CARIBBEAN BLASTER (8) may work around and sit parked in transit. The rest will all need luck to feature on the podium but MOTU CRUSADER (4) must be some winning hope if he can find 1x1 cover in the run.

Race 8

Some pundits are suggesting that PRETTYLILANGELEYES (1) may have both the speed and inclination to hold ELEGANT IMAGE (5) wide over the short course here but the more likely scenario should see ELEGANT IMAGE (5) work to the lead with KASYANOV (4) and then EARL OF MOT (8) rolling forward to act as the bullies. Most of the rest will sit on behind hoping for luck but TENDER DON (6) specialises in coming with one long searching run and should do just that here tonight.

Race 9

THIRSTY MACH (1) is a pretty quick beginner on his day and even with some semi-fast starters drawn outside him he should hold his rivals wide early and have options as a result. Expect KOTARE ROLAND (7) to just keep rolling forward at the start here and eventually get up in search of the lead, which he is a better than 50% chance of finding at some stage in transit. CUT FOR AN ACE (8) can either follow THIRSTY MACH (1) through at the start or more likely, circle the field in search of the breeze while the rest will all need plenty of breaks to feature late.

Race 10

Most of the front line runners here can begin quickly enough on their day although COOKEYSLASS (4) is probably the quickest and should be able to lead them around or hand up in transit. Either way EL PACO (8) looks a great chance of working forward from his 10m handicap at some stage while BRIEF GLANCE (3) is the wildcard of the race who could make a mistake and drop out as has been traditional in recent months or charge into the race menacingly with a trouble free run.


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