Friday, September 13, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday @ Tabcorp Park

Adam Hamilton's Melton Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Put simply, tonight’s nine-race Tabcorp Park programme is just great fun for punting. I’m not sure that means we’ll work away four figures richer but we will have a great time trying to achieve that feat. In all, we’ll have an interest in seven of the nine races scheduled courtesy of 3 Best Value Bets, 1 Best Roughie, 3 Money Races and some Quads so sit back, grab a beer and enjoy a night of Finals Footy and Metropolitan Trots!
Best Value/ Black Figure Friday ($25 Win on each)
There is nothing going around tonight that I’d be happy to have for $100 straight out but there are a few @ black figure odds that should go very close. Have $25 on each of these and if one wins we’ll be ahead, if two win we’ll be well ahead and if all three win it’s a party.
Jazz King (Race 2 no. 6) $3.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
I absolutely adore heat-into-final affairs and this race is no exception. Importantly, this guy draws identically to when he won his heat and basically has only hand-up horsed drawn inside him so he should persist forward until he finds the front and prove very tough to roll if that scenario prevails.
Braveheart Stride (Race 3 no. 5) $5 – Click here to bet on this horse now
On face value it may have appeared that this guy fell in to win his heat of this race last weekend button closer inspection he raced tough, lifted impressively on straightening and still had something left in the locker after a 56.2-sec final 800m. Tonight he will either sit parked once more or even find the front and from wither role he’ll dictate the race and make the others earn it.
Metromint (Race 9 no. 2) $3.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare probably isn’t the best horse engaged here but she looks like getting the best run in the race and if she does settle on the back of likely leader Aqua Luvvy (4) then she will look the winner at some stage in the lane.
Best Roughie ($10 x $15)
Donegal Delight (Race 5 no. 11) $13 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
To be honest, I don’t have any real knock on Broadways Best (10) here as she’s low flying right now but I don’t like horses having to alter their natural racing pattern and if she makes a mid-race move here she may be vulnerable late. One thing that’s almost certain is that the above mare won’t be trying to re-invent the wheel. She’ll be sitting back and hoping for luck and if horse like Bettor Give It (9) and Broadways Best (11) make it a truly run affair, she can win for sure.
The Money Races (Flexi Trifectas for $50 each)
Race 4 – Click here to bet on this race now
After a slashing recent Ballarat trial win I’m willing to bet that the real Shake It Mama (4) will turn up tonight and if she does I think she’ll prove too good. At very worst she should be running second here with Narra Operative (6), Fearless Leader (10) & G K Galleon (11) the only hopes of rolling her.
4/ 6,10,11/ 1,6,10,11. $22.50 gets 250%
4/ 6,10,11/ 5,7,8. $13.50 gets 150%
6,10,11/ 4/ 1,6,10,11. $9 gets 100%
6,10,11/ 4/ 5,7,8. $5 gets 55.56%
Race 5 – Click here to bet on this race now
As mentioned above, I have huge respect for Broadways Best (10) and continue to rate her as the one they have to beat but if she does get rolled I think that Bettor Give It (9) or Donegal Delight (11) will be the offenders.
10/ 9,11/ 1,4,8,9,11. $24 gets 300%
10/ 9,11/ 3,5,6,7. $12 gets 150%
9,11/ 10/ 1,4,8,9,11. $10 gets 125%
9,11/ 10/ 3,5,6,7. $4 gets 50%
Race 9 – Click here to bet on this race now
This is another terrific heat-into-final affair where Metromint (2) and Nimble Jack (7) who both won their qualifiers for this race and the pretty smart 4YO Badewitz (8) should dominate with any luck at all. There are a few others with place hopes but if one the above trio wins we should be in the money.
2,7,8 Boxed. $18 gets 300%
2,7,8/ 2,7,8/ 4,5,10,11. $24 gets 100%
2,7,8/ 4,5,10,11/ 2,7,8. $8 gets 33.33%
The Quads (x4) Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
4/ 9,10,11/ 4,5,6,8,10/ 2. $51 gets 340%
4/ 9,10,11/ 4,5,6,8,10/ 10. $10 gets 66.67%
6,10,11/ 9,10,11/ 4,5,6,8,10/ 2. $30 gets 66.67%
6,10,11/ 9,10,11/ 4,5,6,8,10/ 10. $9 gets 20%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Emma Stewart
Best Chance
Shake It Mama (Race 4 no.4) $2.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She has trialled well, she was up and down last season with a few little issues but she’s had a lot of vet work done and hopefully she puts it all together tonight.
“She always works good but her trial was really good. She seems back to her best so hopefully it can show at the races. I think she’s better in front if she can get across them easily. If she is trapped outside the leader she can pull a little so it’s just something we have to weigh up.
Braveheart Stride (Race 3 no.5) $5 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a strong horse; we really like him but these claiming races can be hard to win. He’s fit and well and pretty strong so he should run a good race.
“It’s hard with the early speed to have tactics but Mick will weigh it up and drive him the best he can.”
Fearless Leader (Race 4 no.10) $4 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s drawn awkward but he’s a little chance because if he gets a soft run he is really fast, they’ll definitely know he’s there.”
Bollinger Baby (Race 5 no.8) $9  TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I really like this mare, she’s big and strong. I think she knocked off a little last time because she is inexperienced in the way she races but I think she’ll run a terrific race.
“Tactically it’s not ideal because she’s probably stronger than she is quick. It might end up being tricky if the one gets crossed.”
Bettor Give It (Race 5 no.9) $4.80  TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s a lovely honest mare who has got a lot stronger this time in. I think she’s probably the better one out of the two, particularly with the draw. She always tries really hard.”
Mister Onetwo (Race 6 no.8) $3.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“We’d probably prefer On The Razzle being in the race because we probably would have ended up behind the leader but he is definitely one from our team that will go through his classes and we a few metropolitan races.”
Mister Sheedy (Race 6 no.10) $3.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s not as genuine as we like but with a bit of a freshen he can come back better. He’s one paced and maybe doesn’t have the killer instinct in him so we are hoping he can develop that this time in and become what we think of him.
“If he’d had a couple a runs he would definitely be driven tough but being first up it’s probably still a question mark.
Truman (Race 9 no.5) $7.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a bit like Mister Sheedy in that we really like him but he can be inconsistent and lacks the killer instinct.
“He works like a really good horse but he just hasn’t shown it at the races yet.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Donegal Delight: 54.98secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Donegal Delight: 27.27secs
Fastest Last Mile – Bitobliss: 1:52.84

Sectional Superstar

Martial Artist (Race 4 no.1)
– $14.00 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This fella has certainly been unheralded to date starting big odds at each of his last five starts.
Times don’t lie however and despite being held up he rushed home in the quickest last half of his race (56.47).
If he can enjoy a soft pegline run behind likely leader, and short priced favourite, Shake It Mama then he is a massive hope of running a place at big odds.

Speed Maps

Race 1
ORLANDOS DREAM (2) is probably the best natural beginner draw off the front line and given the advantage of inside draws in squaregaiting races expect him to lead early and either keep that role or hand up to an appropriate rival. If he does hand up it could be to any of ENJOY A COLDIE (3), MISCHAEL THOMAS (5) or BRYLIN CRESCENT (7) while there are plenty of dangerous closers drawn off the second line including ATEGO LILLY (10), ABBOTSHALL (11) and JOSEPHINE JONES (12).

Race 2
ROSA MACH (3) proved how quickly she can begin in her heat of this race when pinging to the lead before handing up to stablemate OURBELLABRO (8) early on. She should once again find the pegs first here and from there it’s likely that she’ll hand up to either another stablemate in REVIVALIST (5) or fellow heat winner JAZZ KING (6). Either way there should be some speed early before they drop anchor so poorly drawn contenders like MANUKA MAN (7), OURBELLABRO (8), ALTA TEARAWAY (9) & CONFLICT OF INTEREST (10) will all need luck to make their presence felt.

Race 3
There could be some genuine fireworks at the start here with FRIDAY LUNCH (1), MACH RULER (20, GREEK TO ME (3) and BRAVEHEART STRIDE (5) all wanting a piece of the early lead but FRIDAY LUNCH (1) is as quick as any horse out so should hold the lead if Hodges so desires. If he does then BRAVEHEART STRIDE (5) is favoured to punch the breeze with PACIFIC SOUL (8) securing his favourite peg-line run. ELIMINATOR (9) loves to pull out and get running through the middle stages which will afford his stablemate THIRSTY MACH (11) an ideal run into the race.

Race 4
SHAKE IT MAMA (4) can mix and match her racing style but if she is genuinely back in town then she should shoot forward early here in search of the early lead. if she does secure the top then MARTICL ARTIST (1) should enjoy a cosy peg-line trip with NARRA OPERATIVE (6) working forward in search of the breeze. FEARLESS LEADER (10) is the other tough customer who can race wide late and still keep coming at his rivals while G K GALLEON (11) looks most dangerous of the ambush artists engaged.

Race 5
There are no blistering beginners drawn the front line here so PLEASE DONT TALK (1) should hold her rivals wide until a big gun comes to test here. The preferential conditions of this race mean that there should be some moves with BETTOR GIVE IT (9) and BROADWAYS BEST (10) both likely but not certain to head those mid-race charges. Depending on how much speed goes on during that re-shuffle the star sit-sprinter headed by DONEGAL DELIGHT (7) will wither get their chance to win or be mathematically denied a serious winning hope.

Race 6
The scratching of On The Razzle has turned this race on its head as he was an almost certain leader from the polemarking draw. Now we’re left with a front line where EVERY SINGLE HORSE will consider themselves some chance of getting the lead so there should be some fireworks early on. The most likely scenario would probably see EXCITEUSINTHECITY (4) work to the front with CUT FOR AN ACE (5) parked and MACHIN OUT (3) on the leaders back but regardless of what happens MISTER ONETWO (8) will now need a lot of luck from his inside-back-line draw and MISTER SHEEDY (10) would be the big beneficiary of any early speed burn due to his stamina and strength.

Race 7
This is a most interesting affair where JUKEBOX MUSIC (1), COMPOSED (3), OUR WHITE KNIGHT (5) and THATS MISTER ALI (6) can all fly the tapes on their day and what happens at the start will be crucial to the result. In most scenarios CHANCELLOR CULLEN (2) will begin safely before pressing forward and relinquishing whoever finds the top of that position mid-race but here is some chance they’ll park him wide first-up. Of the late closers MOTU CRUSADER (10) looks by far the most dangerous if he handles the strands although SAINT FLASH (9) and JACK IN FLIGHT (11) can also feature if things go their way.

Race 8
This is a very tricky race to map where STAR GUN (2) looks capable of of pushing forward and either finding and holding the lead or handing up in transit. Most of the rest mix and match their racing pattern although MAORIS POCKET (7) is versatile enough to race tough which is an advantage and TENDER DON (8) should come with one long searching run.

Race 9

AQUA LUVVY (4) can pull quite badly in her races so Blake Jones may not want to fire her out, but her natural speed alone should be enough to see her find the front. If she does then METROMINT (2) should lob an economical peg-line run with TRUMAN (5) & NIMBLE JACK (7) both working forward to race tough at some stage. Expect Emmett Brosnan to snag back from the inside back line draw and look for clear room to wind up although he may stick to the pegs while ZEDAGUY (10) and KENSINGTON PALACE (11) will both need a brutal mid-race tempo to sweep home in the lane.

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