Thursday, July 31, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bet ($25 Each Way)
Pas Mate (Race 7 no. 3) $3.50

The Money Races
Race 1
7/ 1/ 2,3,5,6/ Filed. $34 gets 212.5%
7/ 2,3,5,6/ 1/ Field. $16 gets 100%

Race 5
3/ 1,6,8/ 1,6,8. $33 gets 550%
3/ 1,6,8/ 4,5. $12 gets 200%
1,6,8/ 3/ 1,6,8. $12 gets 200%
1,6,8/ 3/ 4,5. $3 gets 50%

The Quads (x4 for $140)
3,6/ 9/ 1,3,5,7/ 5. $40 gets 500%
3,6/ 9/ 1,3,5,7/ 4. $20 gets 250%
3,6/ 1,2,6/ 1,3,5,7/ 5. $60 gets 250%
1,8/ 9/ 1,3,5,7/ 5. $20 gets 250%

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Bendigo

The Game Plan for Bendigo – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($75 Win All Up)
Almihata (Race 1 No.5) $2.10
This girl may be a veteran of just three starts but she was rated highly enough to start favourite over Niki No No at her second start and she showed good speed following that in her heat of the Home Grown Classic. She has returned with a good third at the Melton trials recently and if she has improved at all off her first preparation, she should be winning this.

Royal Hustler (Race 3 No.7) $1.10
This fella broke when favourite to beat the promising Allies Mate last start and prior to that he was coming off a lot stronger form lines than he will meet here. He has the ability to bully his way forward here and either lead or breeze and from that position, only a similar disaster to his latest effort would see him beaten in an eminently winnable race.

Messini (Race 4 No.3) $1.20
Brent Lilley has a really super 3YO Colt here. Perhaps the best of his crop and he has gone some way to proving that with four slashing wins in Australia this preparation which include a Group 1 Vicbred Super Series win thanks to a lightning mid-race move to the breeze. He is just as adept in front and while Jilliby Jagger (6) is untapped and on the way up, I’d be shocked to see this guy go under tonight.

Hectorjayjay (Race 8 No.2) $1.20
Nothing went right for this guy in the Vicbred Super Series final however that can’t take away from the promise he showed leading up to that run. He has the early speed to get to the front early and from that position he would need only return to his previous form to be far too good for this field on the way to being a live chance in the Breeders Crown final.

Best Value ($25 Win)
Purple Village (Race 6 No.3) $3.60
This guy is first-up but was mixing it with horses like V C DEVIL and SUPALINER late in his last campaign and those horses would start pretty short in this sort of race and although it was six weeks ago, he was a solid trial winner at Echuca back on June 15. If he can cross the polemarker early, he should end up no worse than behind the leader and from there he will play a part late.

Best Roughies
King Rafa (Race 6 No.4) $26 ($5 Win x $20 Place)
If he can fly the arm, which he hasn’t had the opportunity to do a lot recently then I can see him running a much improved race. He has been back in the field pulling and reefing so if he does get things his own way in front, then he could be a serious threat at the odds.

Gazoline (Race 6 No.7) $21 ($10 Win x $20 Place)
In a typically tough trot race this is the horse who may well go around well over his true price. He was only first-up the other day but his effort to sit outside them and battle on strongly for fifth was impressive. He comes back to a 10-metre mark so he may even find the front in the early stages. He is by no means a certainty but he is no doubt a leading chance at odds.

The Money Race ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
Race 8
We’ve mentioned why Hectorjayjay (2) is the best horse in the race but make no mistake Time Capsule (5) is pretty promising himself while the NSW invader Theartofconfusion (6) can’t be discounted along with the well-drawn A Bit Ruthless (1) for that reason we will play the following trifectas.

2/5/1,6. $20 gets 1000%
2/1,6/5. $10 gets 500%
2/5/3,4,7. $12 gets 400%
2/1,6/1,6. $8 gets 400%

Quaddies (x4 worth $120)
1,4,5,6/1,5,7,11/1,8/2. $48 gets 150%
1,4,5,6/3,8,9,10/1,8/2. $24 gets 75%
1,4,5,6/1,5,7,11/3,6,7,10/2. $32 gets 50%
1,4,5,6/3,8,9,10/3,6,7,10/2. $16 gets 25%

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night @ Bendigo

The Game Plan for Bendigo – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($50 Win)
Aldebaran Seismic (Race 3 No.4) $2.10
This guy is still relatively inexperienced with only four starts to his name but his win two starts ago was thoroughly dominant. He was favourite over Action Kosmos last time when he broke and I’ve got no doubt Ole Sun (5) is no more than the equal of that horse. Add to that the fact that Ole Sun (5) has proven to be a little tricky in his gait, and we are banking on Aldebaran Seismic’s (4) manners and progression to get the job done.

Whereibylong (Race 5 No.4) $2.50
While most of Victoria’s best fillies were chasing the Vicbred Super Series, this juvenile Breeders Crown winner headed north to smash her rivals in the Breeders Challenge. I think she has gone to another level since defeat in the Vic Oaks and while Rocknroll Arden (7) has been competitive against older rivals in New Zealand, she doesn’t have a lot of gate speed and will likely be spotting Emma Stewart’s filly a decent start.

Best Value ($10 win x $25 place)
Popeye Village (Race 6 No.3) $7.50
This bet will hinge on our guy crossing his rivals as the arms fold back but I think he is a decent chance of doing so. He did win a similar race at Warragul three starts back and even though there are a couple of handy horses engaged here, I’m convinced this guy goes better when he can get to the pegs so he can run a massive race if that scenario ensues.

The Money Race $40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
Race 1
Five Star Belle (1) has shown good ability in four starts and while this is the first time she draws inside on the front row, she has probably shown enough speed to kick up and hold the top. If that’s the case then Artistica Uno (8) should enjoy a lovely run and is going well enough to run in the trifecta somewhere so we are going to rove those two with the wider chances in three separate trifecta’s.

1,8/1,8/2,4,7,9,10. $25 gets 250%
1,8/2,4,7,9,10/1,8. $10 gets 100%
2,4,7,9,10/1,8/1,8. $5 gets 50%

Quaddies (x2 worth $100)
4,6/4,7/2,3,7,8,10/7. $60 gets 300%
4,6/4,7/2,3,7,8,10/3,8,9. $40 gets 66.66%

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Charlton

The Game Plan for Charlton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
We’ve been travelling reasonably well in recent days by remaining disciplined with our gambling and targeting less bets for more outlay, but that’s all out the window here because today’s card looks like ripe for many, albeit smaller outlay, bets. In all, we’ll be involved in 7 of the 9 races for decision and if we get some luck it should result in another winning day.
Best Value ($20 Each Way)
Nikkis Delight (Race 7 no. 5) $5.50
This girl has thrived under Tina Ridis’ care and while she won’t get things over-easy here, if Endorsement (3) leads early and hands the top to her then I think she will lead them all the way.
Best Roughies ($5 Win $15 Place)
Candy Digger (Race 3 no. 8) $26
The Brian Kiesey renaissance has been something to behold in recent days and weeks & this bloke has been a big part of it. Today, he is one of four winning hopes and if all things pan out to plan he’ll get the ideal trail that’s worth its weight in gold here @ Charlton.
Courageous Emm (Race 6 no. 9) $12
This girl is in a quality camp & showed a promising return to form when dashing home late last time out @ Bendigo. It’s a risky bet but we’re not breaking the bank& she may well prove too good.
Alartmicksue (Race 9 no. 1) $16
Horses leading & trailing @ Charlton have an enormous advantage & given this guy will land one of those two roles, he was very good last time out and this is a moderate field I feel comfortable he can run a drum at least.
The Money Races
Race 2
Nomistakingpegasus (5) is the one to beat here but Red Nigel (7) also has plenty of ability. If they both stay in gate then they will dominate proceedings here and we’ve made provisions just in case one of them jumps off.
5,7/ 5,7/ 1,2,3,4,10. $30 gets 300%
5,7/ 1,2,3,4,10/ 5,7. $10 gets 100%
5,7/ 1,2,3,4,10/ 1,2,3,4,10. $20 gets 50%
Race 3
My Dads A Ten (4) & Suns Of Anarchy (9) are the big guns here & there are only a few others who can join them on the dais for mine.
4,9/ 1,4,8,9/ 1,4,6,8,9. $50 gets 277.78%
Race 5
Patchitupbaby (1) has the ability to make or break our day so I’ll be pretty dark on him if he finds a way to lose but on face value he’ll lead & win & if he does Majestic Swan (8) should join him on the podium.
1/ 8/ 6,7,9. $15 gets 500%
1/ 6,7,9/ 8. $10 gets 333.33%
1/ 6,7,9/ 6,7,9. $15 gets 250%
The Quads
1/ 5,6,8,9/ 3,5,7/ 3,10,12. $43 gets 119.44%
1/ 5,6,8,9/ 3,5,7/ 6,7,11. $24 gets 75%
1/ 5,6,8,9/ 1,6,8/ 3,10,12. $24 gets 75%
1/ 5,6,8,9/ 1,6,8/ 6,7,11. $9 gets 25%

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night @ Quest

The Game Plan for Shepparton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
As a general rule, I love betting at Quest Racing Complex and after a handy little patch of form we can head into tonight’s programme feeling pretty confident we’re set for more success., There are a couple of horses who look super hard to beat @ short quotes this evening but there are things that could get in their way so I’m steering clear of them in preference for 1 Best Value Bet, 1 Best Roughie, 2 Money races & some Quads.

Best Value ($20 Each Way)
Run Clancy Run (Race 3 no. 8) $6.50
This bloke would be getting a little frustrating for punters as he has promised to win a race in recent times without actually getting that close but tonight may well be the night. Perhaps the ultimate key factor in his favour here is the gate eight draw as he’s an absolute, dead-set sit-sprinter and whether he lobs behind the leader or three back the poles he’ll only need an inch of luck for his turn of foot to prove very dangerous in the lane.

Best Roughie ($10 Win $20 Place)
Arrokeefe (Race 1 no. 11) $12
This bloke ran two super races in a row at this course and Swan Hill before making an early error last time out at Bendigo, he has since won a trial at this track in pretty handy fashion and if they run along up front, which is a distinct possibility, he’ll at least be charging home for you when it matters most.

The Money Races (First 4’s for $80)
Race 4
I'm not sure Young Modern (5) is an absolute, can’t-be-beaten moral here but he’s a very smart 3YO who has an enormous amount in his favour here, including the fact that he should find the front if Stanley wants to get aggressive in the early/middle stages. If he does win I think there are three horses that should fight out silver medal honours and from there we’re hoping for some value in third & fourth.

5/ 1,6,7/ 1,6,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,8. $60 gets 250%
5/ 1,6,7/ 2,3,8/ 1,2,3,6,7,8. $20 gets 55.56%

Race 7
This will be a sensational Breeders Crown heat for the baby boys where Birdy Mach (4) should have the requisite speed and intimidation factor to cross his Tatlow Stakes conqueror Kept Under Wraps (1) and they should settle down for a two horse war from as far as 600m out from home. I’ll be mesmerised if they don’t run the Quinella here with Birdy Mach (4) favoured to salute and outside of them we need some good exotic value once again for third & fourth.

4/ 1/ 3,5,6,7/ 3,5,6,7. $44 gets 366.67%
1/ 4/ 3,5,6,7/ 3,5,6,7. $18 gets 150%
4/ 1/ 3,5,6,7/ 8,9,10. $12 gets 100%
1/ 4/ 3,5,6,7/ 8,9,10. $6 gets 50%

The Quads (x4 for $120)
5,6,9/ 5,7/ 1,4/ 10. $48 gets 400%
5,6,9/ 5,7/ 1,4/ 4,5. $48 gets 200%
5,6,9/ 3,6/ 1,4/ 10. $12 gets 100%
5,6,9/ 3,6/ 1,4/ 4,5. $12 gets 50%

Monday, July 28, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Stawell

The Game Plan for Stawell – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I’m pleased to report it was a pretty successful little weekend with solid wins @ both Melton & Ballarat, but the Gods have been over-kind with a very tough meeting confronting us at Stawell today. Despite the tricky nature of the programme it will not stop us punting however and I still think if we play smart with our 3 Best Bets packaged p into a low risk Formula 2 along with 1 Best Roughie, 1 Money race and 4 Quads we can come away with a pretty good result.

Best Bets/ Formula 2 ($90 gets 30 units)
Usage (Race 1 no.6) $2.50
This guy has no tactical or edge over his rivals but he’s just going much, much better than them. The truth is he’s always been a handy pacer and if he brings the effort and application he’s brought to his past two starts he’ll bully this lot into submission today.

Keayang Storm (Race 5 no. 6) $1.30
I’m actually not this guy’s biggest ever fan but this race really does look his to lose today. The only little key might be at the start because if he’s allowed to roll past Punchinello (5) there’s virtually no hope that they will run him down but if he has to sit parked then things do get just that little bit tougher for him.

Faraway Man (Race 7 no. 2) $1.80
He rarely draws the front line this guy but he does have some gate speed when circumstances land in his favour and that is what looks like happening tonight. He’s also just a bit better than this lot so should definitely win if he leads and still probably salute if he doesn’t.

Best Roughie ($5 Win x $10 Place)
Gaelic Lass (Race 4 no. 4) $34
Just having a small interest bet here but in a very even race I don’t think the above trotter should be anything like $34. In fact I think he should be less than half that price.

The Money Race – Race 5
As mentioned above I’ve got Keayang Storm (6) winning this race pretty comfortably, If he leads and Punchinello (5) takes the trail they really should run one-two here but things get a little more confusing if Punchinello (5) opts to hold the top.

6/ 5/ 7. $35 gets 3500%
6/ 5/ 9. $20 gets 2000%
6/ 7/ 5. $10 gets 1000%
6/ 9/ 5. $5 gets 500%

The Quads (x4 for $125)
7,8,10,11/ 6/ 4,5,7,11,12,13/ 2. $74 gets 308.33%
7,8,10,11/ 6/ 4,5,7,11,12,3/ 1,7,8. $36 gets 50%
4,9/ 6/ 4,5,7,11,12,13/ 2. $6 gets 50%
4,9/ 6/ 4,5,7,11,12,13/ 1,7,8. $9 gets 25%

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Good Form Preview - Sunday @ Cranny

The Game Plan for Ballarat – with Blake Reden(@BlakeRedden)Best Bets/ All-Up ($100 Win)
Framework Salute (Race 2 no. 5) $2.80
Vinny Chase (Race 5 no.2) $2.10
United Legacy (Race 8 no.1) $1.20
The Money Race

Race 1 ($40 worth of flexi trifectas)
2/4/7. $20 gets 2000%
2/7/4. $10 gets 1000%
7/2/4. $5 gets 500%
2/4,7/1. $5 gets 250%
The Quad (x2 worth $100)
6,8/2/2,3,8/1. $60 gets 1000%
6,8/1,4,6,7,8,9,10,11/2,3,8/1. $40 gets 83.33%

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Good Form Preview - Sat Night @ Bray

The Game Plan for Ballarat – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Despite the winter weather there’s little doubt that the crowd will be pretty handy @ Bray Raceway tonight & they will be in for a treat with three Breeders Crown heats & an exceptional fast class affair. The cornerstone of my punting approach tonight will be a very low-risk if not overly lucrative All-Up which should at least pay for our Quad. We’ll also be targeting three Money Races, which will be exactly the same races we attack in our All-Up, so they will obviously be crucial to our success.

Best Bets/ All-Up ($100 Win)
Keayang Cullen (Race 5 no. 7) $1.40
This guy would be one of Victoria’s best half-dozen pacers in work & tonight he gets every condition to suit. That’s because he’s a 95% chance of spearing across & finding the front within 100m of the start and he thrives over the sprint trip so should not be caught once he hits the top.

Epaulette (Race 8 no. 4) $1.40
Exceptional gate speed is also a massive weapon in the armoury of this exciting 3YO campaigner, but after his brave effort in The Graduate last weekend, he’s also developing a fair bit of bottom to his arsenal as well. Tonight, he will lead and from there, he should win.

Soho Tokyo (Race 9 no. 3) $1.50
I’m confident that if this girl had been in front last week with Katy Perry sitting outside of her, the result would have been reversed & that’s about as good a wrap as you can get if you’re a juvenile filly this term. Delight Me (1) looks talented but this filly is brutal and should not lose tonight.

The Money Races

Race 5
As mentioned above I just think Keayang Cullen (7) leads & wins here but what I’m relying on almost more than that is likely second elect Restrepo (3) missing second or even third position. The way I see the race being run Restrepo (3) is going to have to sit parked on a pretty brutal tempo & the way that he’s racing I’m not so sure he’s a lock to run a drum.
7/ 1,2,3,5/ 1,2,3,5/ 1,2,3,5. $60 gets 250%
7/ 1,2,3,5/ 1,2,3,5/ 4,6. $20 gets 83.33%

Race 8
If a Sprint Lane was in operation here I’d be almost certain that Epaulette (4) would lead and the two horses directly behind him in Will Mach My Word (1) & Mulgrave (8) would finish in the placings. I’m still pretty confident that will happen but Jilliby Jagger (7) is untapped and may sneak into third.
4/ 1/ 8. $50 gets 5000%
4/ 1/ 7. $20 gets 2000%
4/ 8/ 1. $10 gets 1000%

Race 9
Soho Tokyo (3) should bully its way to the top here and prove a class above while Delight Me (1) is the obvious silver medal prospect, particularly as she looks almost certain to hold the leader’s back.
3/ 1/ 8. $20 gets 2000%
3/ 1/ 6,7. $20 gets 1000%

The Quad
7/ 2,6/ 1,2,3,6,9,11/ 4. $100 gets 833.33%



Friday, July 25, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Tabcorp Park Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s very rare in recent times to have a weekend meeting @ Vic Harness HQ that’s NOT a dead-set, bona fide feature racing card, but that’s what we have tonight, with only the Lightfoot Laurels @ Group3 level qualifying as a ‘black-type’ event. Often these more standard programmes are even better for punting than the feature nights but this evening is tricky and should probably better suit those who like to search for value because I don’t think there’s one stone cold moral across the nine-race card. To that end I’m taking only the 1 Best bet @ Black Figure odds along with two Money Races and a good lash @ both the Early & the Normal Quads.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Blitzthemcalder (Race 1 no. 7) $2.50
Many punters will be rolling their eyes at seeing this bloke marked favourite and Best Bet in today’s Herald Sun given his extraordinary record of getting beaten when those circumstances prevail. The reasons why I’m happy to go back to the well are that I’m hoping some of his recent misdemeanours & his poor draw will help us get a better price than we are entitled to along with the fact that every horse drawn inside should be happy to hand him the lead if Puppet progresses forward and gets aggressive at the start.

The Money Races
Race 4 (Flexi First 4’s for $60)
On the score of class and conditions of this race I really think Quite A Moment (1) and Vics Cheval (5) should fight this out. It is a standing start affair however so things can go wrong and if they do Paris Pepperell (2) and Shes An Image (7) (who is way too short in TABs fixed odds market for mine) look the other key runners engaged.

1,5/ 1,5/ 2,7/ 2,3,6,7. $20 gets 250%
1,5/ 2,7/ 1,2,5,7/ 1,2,3,5,6,7. $40 gets 125%

Race 5 (Flexi Trifectas for $90)
Having three Emma Stewart-trained runners occupying the first four barriers confuses this race to some degree, as does the inclusion of Kiwi recruit Maximan (2) but I’m still bullish that the class will prevail here and the four big guns will dominate with Johnny Quid (3) the only horse likely to stop them comprising the Trifecta due to his very good early speed.

1,2,4,11/ 1,2,4,11/ 1,2,3,4,11. $72 gets 200%
1,2,4,11/ 1,2,4,11/ 5,6,8. $18 gets 50%

The EARLY Quads (x4 for $150)
7/ 6,10/ 1,2,5,6,7/ 1,5. $40 gets 200%
7/ 3,5,9,11/ 1,2,5,6,7/ 1,5. $20 gets 50%
6,9,12/ 6,10/ 1,2,5,6,7/ 1,5. $60 gets 100%
6,9,12/ 3,5,9,11/ 1,2,5,6,7/ 1,5. $30 gets 25%

The Quads (x2 for $150)
1,2,4,11/ 1,5,8,10/ 1,2,5,6,9/ 2,9,11. $120 gets 50%
1,2,4,11/ 4,6,9/ 1,2,5,6,9/ 2,9,11. $30 gets 12.5%

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Quarter– Teo Enteo: 26.62ecs
Fastest Last Half – Teo Enteo: 54.53secs
Fastest Last Mile – La Machane: 1:54.00

Sectional Superstar
La Machane (Race 7 no.7) – $12
This mare has been flying all preparation long and while she will likely need luck again, it’s impossible to ignore her last mile split just 6 days ago when she smashed the clock in a brilliant 1:54.00.
With plenty of front row pressure engaged, she can file into the running line wherever need be and if she gets the right back in the run home, she will be storming late.

Speed Maps

Race 1
Who Leads?
There is good speed right across the front line here with Rockin Wilma (4) and El Paco (6) both particularly quick beginners when let go at the start, although early toe may not decide the leader here because Blitzthemcalder (7) is a big chance of bullying his way to the front despite not being fast away from the mobile start.
Where will the pressure come from?
If Blitzthemcalder (7) doesn’t lead then he’ll certainly play enforcer as his best chance of winning is to grind his rivals into submission. If he does find the top then the bullying role will almost certainly be left Xanderxav (9) who is also no stranger to racing tough and still coming away with a good result.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Maoris Pocket (12) had to be seen to be believed at this course last time out and looms as a huge threat if his manners hold up well but there aren’t too many others capable of spotting their rivals a big lead and hunting them down tonight.

Race 2
Who Leads?
The primary battle here should come between Doomed (2) and Getya Wings Out (3) with Mark Pitt holding most of the aces on the former horse. If Pitt wants to hold the top it would seem Doomed (2) has the requisite speed to keep that role but there’s every chance he’ll relent to Getya Wings Out (3) given she’s the more talented horse.
Where will the pressure come from?
There are no natural enforcers engaged here, which may make the race for those at the head of affairs. If there is to be some curry it should come Ideal Majority (9) who races best from the front of the field or Must Be Nice (10) who’s probably more likely to set off on a searching three-wide run a fair way from home than make a mid-race move to sit parked in transit.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
My Zach Bromac (5) is the obvious danger if they go hard in transit but Ezee Duzit Lombo (11) also possesses a very sharp turn of foot when the cards all fall her way and she didn’t have a lot of luck in her heat last time out.

Race 3
Who Leads?
This is a funny race where every horse off the front line possesses some gate speed but the lead should land either with Here And Now (2) or Willow Robyn (7). No Tomorrow (1) has the toe to match those two early but races better with a sit and even over the 1720m trip should be happy to take a cosy trail.
Where will the pressure come from?
Mister Smoochy (4) has proven he can hang tough in easier races than this but the true enforcer here is definitely Virginia Lightning (6). She’s pretty unlikely to get the lead here as she did last time out so expect her to sit parked and turn this into a staying test.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
No Tomorrow (1) probably doesn’t qualify as a genuine swooper as he’ll likely race in behind the speed but he will be very threatening with his turn of foot. Lems Cameo (5) was also eye-catching first up from a break and could threaten while Willow Robyn (7) is another that will be rattling home if Kerryn opts to go back rather than forward at the start.

Race 4
Who Leads?
Standing start squaregaiting races are never easy to map and this is no exception but of the front row runners Desert Spur (3) certainly looks the fastest away from the strands. Given the likelihood she’ll hand up to something though, the bigger question is who’ll relieve her of the lead. Quite A Moment (1) is most likely to take up the running but Vics Cheval (5) is also not without some little chance.
Where will the pressure come from?
Vic s Cheval (5) is without doubt the only bully engaged here. Paris Pepperell (2) can also race tough in slightly easier races but Vics Cheval (5) is the one who will dictate this race and decide which way it’s run (so long as she stays in gait throughout).
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Paris Pepperell (2) should sit just off the pace and prove some sort of little threat if the pace is brutal throughout then she can play a role as can Shes An Image (7) or even Purplepeopleater (6) although all would need a heap of luck to win.

Race 5
Who Leads?
The early speed here definitely looks like coming from Emma Stewart-trained stablemates Johnny Quid (3) and Beauty Secret (4) and it only stands to reason that both would have their best chance of winning if the former horse handed up to the latter. Maximan (2) is something of an unknown commodity but he hasn’t shown great early speed back him and probably won’t be hurried out at the start.
Where will the pressure come from?
Maximan (2) has shown a great ability to race tough and just keep coming back home in NZ so it’s certainly expected that once he balances up early, he’ll be rushing forward in hopes of finishing the breeze and dictating proceedings from there.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Ginger Bliss (11) is much better known as a leader but he can steam home in his races and will have to from the unkind grandstand draw. Turnpike Cruiser (6) and Classy Western (5) can also blister home under the right circumstances but this is a really tough assignment for them.

Race 6
Who Leads?
This race boasts a pretty quick front line where every horse can hold their own at the start but Magnificent Art (1) is fast enough to hold all his rivals wide for as long as lance desires. If the pressure is moderate the polemarker may opt to hold the top but it’s probably more likely that he’ll hand the ascendancy to either Goodtime Mike (5) or Wolfpack (6) tonight.
Where will the pressure come from?
No horse here is likely to really force the issue from a pressure perspective but Goodtime Mike (5) is one who might keep them rolling along if he cannot get the lead.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
There are plenty who could have their say late here if the cards all fell their way headed by Road To Rock (10) & Electric Ollie (8).

Race 7
Who Leads?
The crucial early battle will almost certainly come between Born Again Sassy (1) and Exciteusinthecity (2) here as both have more than their fair share of early toe and the winner of this battle will have big bearing on the overall result.
Where will the pressure come from?
Where do we start? The Good Times (5) should roll forward early on before genuine bullies like Asoka (6) and Hall Of Famer (9) pour the pressure on through the middle stages of the race. These are good quality horse but only the strong – or very fortunate – will survive if this race is run the way it appears it will be on paper.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
In one way this race appears a boon for run-on horses but with so much class likely to be at the top end it will still take a big performance to come from well back and win. If it is to happen then La Machane (7) may be the culprit although Born Again Sassy (1) may also get her chance if she takes a trail in transit.

Race 8
Who Leads?
The main fight here should be between Our Femme Fatale (2) who’s not beginning quite as well as she used to these days and natural born leader Illawong Joyful (4). One of the two should find the top and it will probably be the latter, at least early on.
Where will the pressure come from?
Our Femme Fatale (2) is tough enough to sit parked and still come out on top if she doesn’t find the front while Western Gretel (6) is also used to playing bully and using her stamina rather than speed for her successes.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
There are a number of horses who can play a role in the finish from well off the speed here but the two key ones are Glenferrie EJ (9) and Tandias Bromac (11) who look every chance of carting one another into the race.

Race 9
Who Leads?
This is yet another race with an extremely quick front line where Monica My Dear (4), Aldebaran Eastwood (5), Im Anonymiss (6) & Hackashaq (7) can all fly the mobile arm but if push comes to shove either Aldebaran Eastwood (6) or Hackashaq (7) should lead.
Where will the pressure come from?
Once they find their positions its unlikely there’ll be too much mid-race curry although Hackashaq (7) will probably roll along if he doesn’t find the top.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?

In terms of those coming from well back, Bella Cheval (9) probably heads the list of likely dive-bombers although Canadian Dream (8) isn’t without some blowout hope despite the awkward draw.

Good Form Preview - Friday @ Mildura

The Game Plan for Mildura – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($75 All-Up)
Vivant (Race 1 No.4) $1.10
This guy has had just a couple of start’s for Shayne Cramp and despite being beaten on debut for the team, hit back hard with a thoroughly impressive win last time. That was in restricted grade and this is a step back up but in saying that, this race is by no means much tougher and I’m expecting class to show the way early.
Intransit (Race 3 No.5) $1.50
Intransit (5) is the horse who defeated Vivant at his Sunraysia debut and he has gone one with it to sit parked and dismantle his rivals again last time. That was his third straight win since transferring to Mildura and I’ve got no doubt he could be headed to Tabcorp Park Melton in the next 12 months if he continues his ascension through the ranks.

Best Roughie ($25 win)
Caribbean Crest (Race 4 No.2) $12
I don’t necessarily think this guy can cross Philltra Phella at the start however I’m still expecting him to get a lovely trip in behind the speed and I’m confident he is going better than the form suggests. He had to do a bit of work last time from the wide alley and was shuffled back prior to that at Globe Derby however his most recent run in the Sunraysia he wasn’t beaten far behind Aldebaran Macha which stacks up well for this race.
The Money Race $40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
Race 1
As mentioned, Vivant (4) looks the best of good things in the opening event but I also think we can make some money from the limited place chances in the race by taking two trifectas around Youvegotobelieveit (1, )Illawong Libby (2), Bella Cullen (3) and Veejay Viper (5) to run into the minor money.
4/1,3/1,2,3,5. $24 gets 400%
4/2,5/1,2,3,5. $16 gets 266.67%
Quaddies (x2 worth $100)
1,2,6//10/6,9/4,6. $54 gets 450%
1,2,6/2,3,5,6/6,9/4,6. $46 gets 95.83%

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Kilmore

The Game Plan for Kilmore – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($30 Win)
Four Lillies (Race 1 No.8) $2.80
This girl may well be drawn awkwardly on the inside of the second row here but the offset to that is that I think she is pretty classy and not only was she a top class 2YO, she has returned to smash her rivals in a heat of the Vicbred Super Series before running well in the final behind Claudys Princess. I expect her to be getting off the pegs early and class really should tell late.

Sir Jaybe Hall (Race 6 No.6) $2.40
This guy quickly developed early this preparation to ascend to the heights of defeating Musical Delight and just being edged out by Hes Kinky and he hasn’t had a lot of luck recently. He is suited by the stand and has a really good record behind the tapes so don’t worry about the 10-metre mark and on form he is clearly the horse to beat.

Kensington Palace (Race 8 No.8) $3.80
I must admit to loving this mare but make no mistake, this is a good drop in class on her recent efforts and provided things work out early, she is going to be hard to beat. Tara Tom (1) should have the speed to lead and if Kensington Palace (8) ends up behind him, I expect her to outsprint them in the straight.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Shares Down (Race 2 No.2) $6
While this is on a bit of a wing and a prayer, I’m willing to take the risk, at the price, that this guy could be relatively handy. He was well supported on debut and is a 5YO so connections have persisted with him. Add to that the fact the winner got away from her rivals there, but he ran home strongly when clear along the pegline. If he improves, this race isn’t much harder so he is worth an each way punt.

Majorama (Race 7 Number 6) $6.50
This fella has had four runs since crossing over from Tasmania and there has been merit in every single effort. There’s no doubt this is a little rise in class but he is a pretty tough customer and can do it tough if necessary, so again while we won’t be breaking the bank, he is worthy of an each-way wager at nice odds.

Best Roughie ($10 win x $20 place)
Ole Sun (Race 4 No.1) $10
If we can get $10 about this customer it will be terrific shopping because while he is a veteran of just four starts, I’m confident he is going places. To be fair he has had some troubles in his gait in the past but last time he put it all together and was a cosy winner at Kilmore. I’ve got no doubt Bellmac Kody is the horse to beat all things being equal, but it’s simply impossible to ignore this guy on an each way basis.

Quaddies (x4 worth $140)
10/1,5,6,8/2,3,6/8. $48 gets 400%
10/1,5,6,8/2,3,6/1,7,9. $36 gets 100%
10/1,5,6,8/1,4,5,10/8. $20 gets 100%
4,7,11/1,5,6,8/2,3,6/8. $36 gets 100%