Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night @ Bray

The Game Plan for Ballarat – with Jason Bonnington
On face value, tonight’s Bray Raceway meeting looks like a benefit for the hometown hero with Emma Stewart preparing four short-priced favourites who all look likely to win. The problem with backing those horses straight-out or in an All-Up is that a) 2 of the 4 have are not over the line in my humble opinion & b) all four will start even shorter than they should be and in a couple of cases the odds will be downright prohibitive. With all that said I am still going to use Stewart camp runners to anchor my two Money Races but I’ll also be looking for some joy out of 2 Value Bets, 1 Roughie and some Quaddies as per usual.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)

Will Atone (Race 1 no. 3) $4
This bloke cruised up as though he’d go straight past his rivals last time out at Bendigo then just didn’t fire in the final 50m.  The only question mark with him is that he’s very new to the game as an 8YO and may lack that killer instinct but on the score of talent I think he’d be too good for these.

Paris Rose (Race 7 no. 3) $8.50

In a field jam-packed with quality she looks your value runner. It’s probably fair to say she was a little disappointing last start when folding up late after leading but her prior form was great and from the front line here she should be in the finish.

Best Roughie ($10 x $40)

Desiring Kate (Race 6 no. 7) $13
This is another wide open affair but the above pacer should almost have won a strong CO heat on debut before a lightning mid-race move took its toll last time out. They’re a handy lot here but I suspect she has more scope than most and if circumstances play in her favour she’ll be rattling home at the knock.

The Money Races

Race 3 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)
Hexham Heartbeat (6) should be way too good here regardless of whether she leads or breezes while quick beginner Monarco Playboy (2) and the race’s second most promising horse Franciselizabeth (8) are your key Silver medal hopes.

6/ 2,8/ 2,8. $14 gets 700%

6/ 2,8/ 1,3,4,5. $36 gets 450%

Race 8 (Flexi First 4’s for $50)

Yankee Rockstar (6) is a legitimate $1.04 hope here so we’ll have to play F4’s to jag a profit.

6/ 2,3/ 1,2,3,7/ 1,2,3,5,7. $44 gets 244.44%

6/ 2,3/ 1,2,3,7/ 4,8. $6 gets 50%

Quaddies (x3)

1/ 2/ 1,2,4,7,8/ 2,3,8,11,12,13. $45 gets 150%
1/ 4,5,7/ 1,2,4,7,8/ 2,3,8,11,12,13. $25 gets 27.78%
2,4,5,6,7/ 2/ 1,2,4,7,8/ 2,3,8,11,12,13. $30 gets 20%

TAB.COM.AU HITS & MEMORIES

MOVE OF THE WEEK:

Penrith September 12: Arts Wonder $5 into $1.70 (1^st)
($600 @$5; $800 @ $3.80; $1000 @$2.25).

WHERE THERE’S SMOKE THERE’S FIRE:

Albion Park September 10: Ida Tiger $4 into $1.80 (1^st);
Ararat September 10: Valentino Rustler $21 into $7.50 (1^st);
Gloucester Park September 13: The Pacing Priest $2.60 into $1.60 (1^st);
Albion Park September 14: Chloe Maguire $2.40 into $1.40 (1^st);
Bendigo September 14: Stunning Jasper $3 into $1.60 (1^st).

LEFT IT IN THE BAG:

Globe Derby September 9: Elsu Storm $6.50 into $3 (2^nd);
Newcastle September 9: Sunrise To Sunset $13 into $4 (unplaced);
Gloucester Park September 10: Soho Redford $21 into $8.50 (2^nd);
Young September 13: Beetson $4.50 into $1.90 (3^rd);
Albion Park September 14: Chisnall $3.20 into $1.60 (3^rd).
 
HITS:
Globe Derby September 9: Welcome To Vegas $3000 at $3.20 ($6600+ return);
Melton September 13: Born Again Sassy $500 at $11 ($5000+);
Bathurst September 11: Leighs Delight $1400 at $4.20 ($4480+);
Ararat September 10: Valentino Rustler $220 at $21 ($4400+);
Gold Coast September 13: Cant See A Thing $1200 at $4.40 ($4080+).

MISSES:

Newcastle September 13: Major Dancer $5000 at $1.70;
Young September 13: Well To Do Lombo $4000 at $2.40;
Bendigo September 14: Megasam $4000 at $1.65;
Menangle September 14: Sam Douglas $3500 at $2.30;
Albion Park September 10: Oneonthewood $3000 at $2.60.