Friday, May 31, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

Adam Hamilton's Tabcorp Park Preview

THE GAME PLANS for Melton 

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Tonight’s meeting is yet another tricky one at headquarters and I can’t really find a race where I want to play some exotics so instead I’ve come up with some Value Bets, a Quaddie and a decent crack at the Jackpot Big6, which I think will pay anything with the right results.  Here’s hoping!

$25,000 JACKPOT BIG6
1,3,10,11/ 1,5,6/ 1,2,4,5,7,8,10/ 1,5,6,10/ 1,2,4,6,8,13/ 3,7,9. 
$200 gets you 3.3%


It Is Billy (Race 1 no. 9)  $6   ($15 win x $35 place)
This bloke is almost guaranteed to end up three-back the pegs and he will need a bit of luck in the straight but likely leader Ourbellabro is a free-runner so I think the field may string out over the final 400m which will enable him to wind up at the right time.
Rapt In A Rainbow (Race 2 no. 5)  $3.50  ($15 win x $35 place)
This mare was having her first run for Laura Crossland at Maryborough in a heat of tonight’s final at Maryborough 9 days ago and was most impressive winning from the breeze by a big space and I don’t see why she can’t repeat the dose here.

Pinevale Willpower (Race 6 no. 5)  $4  ($15 win x $35 place)
There is no doubt Macca Kelly is the testing material in this race but the back row draw won’t help him and I’m willing to take a punt on this fellow running a big race first up from a break after trialling stylishly at Shepparton recently.

Zanardi (Race 7 no. 8)  $10  ($15 win x $35 place)
Now that the tactic change has come through for Alchemy, who will be holding the lead from the pole, I think this bloke has a great each way chance as he shoud do enough to hold up behind the leader and will get his chance via the passing lane in the stretch.

Onedin Hustler (Race 10 no. 2)  $12  ($15 win x $35 place)
This isn’t a strong race and at the odds I think this bloke is worthy of a gamble as he is a big chance of spearing to the lead from the ideal draw and will give cheek over the 1720m.


1,5,6/ 1,2,4,5,7,8,10/ 1,5,6,10/ 1,2,4,6,8,13.  $100 gets you 19.84%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Tonight’s Tabcorp Park card is riddled with wide open races where speed, tactics and good old fashioned luck will play a huge role in who gets the prize. Having said that I think there are three horses who really should be winning, a fourth who will make or break our night and four big roughies that look good chances of finishing on the podium at very big odds. Throw in one Money Race and a few Quads and we’ll certainly be well invested in another 12-race card!

Best Bets/All-Up/Formula 2

My plan is to have a Formula 2 – where two of these have to win for $60 or 2000% - and also a $40 all-up, which should yield around $320 if all three get up.

Im Stately (Race 3 no. 7) $2.40 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I have been keen on this bloke taking out tonight’s Tatlow Final since before the heat phase of the series and he did nothing to dull my enthusiasm when arrogantly beating up on his rivals 9 days ago. The second line draw is of little or no concern to him and importantly, his main rival, Miracle (10) has drawn back there w/ him so as long as he stays in gait I’m confident he’ll be getting the prize.

Johnny Quid (Race 4 no. 5) $2.80
The only question mark w/ this guy is that he did not go as well as he has been last start at Ballarat but if you forgive him that run he’s got this race on toast. The key factors for him are that he has the gate speed and intimidation factor to work his way to the front and if he finds the lead it would be a huge shock to see him get rolled. You should know your fate pretty early but I’m keen bullish he’ll get the job done.

Fifth And Broadway (Race 11 no. 5) $1.20
This is the no-brainer of the night. A pretty smart 4YO mare with much better races in her future, she meets a moderate bunch of C1’s tonight and whether she rolls to the top as expected or sits parked outside Chasing Chelsea (1) it would take a below par performance for her to get beaten.

Best Value

Amajorjo (Race 5 no. 9) $17 ($50 Each Way)
If you’re going to have one wager all night, I suggest you have a genuine crack at this bloke on an Each Way basis at odds. The following dot-points will outline just why.
* Wind the clock back to mid-March and he ran sub-1:53 miles two weeks running.
* He thrives over the short course, having won 4 from 8 & placed in another 3 runs.
* Before his first-up ‘failure’ he won a Hamilton trial by 50m.
* His first-up ‘failure’ was not one at all. He was three-wide to the breeze in blistering early numbers and only dropped out late.
*That first-up run was over the unsuitable 2240m trip and punters were so confident he started $1.90.
*There is pace off the front line tonight and he will get conditions to suit.
Fairly compelling case? That’s why I’m unloading on him Each Way at what may be a double-figure price tonight and I genuinely expect him to win.

Best Roughie/Place Bets

Death Defying (Race 2 no. 7) $31 ($5 by $15)
I’ve found two roughies in the Glenferrie Farm Sweetheart Trot Final and there are some obvious reasons why. They are that my top tip Sundons Promise (13) should win but she is a mercurial type who is only a 50/50 chance of staying in gait throughout, while the other ‘big guns’ of the series – Maidstone Miss (1) & Purplepeopleater (12) – were horribly disappointing in their heats & would have to improve markedly to figure in the finish. This girl has drawn poorly again but she was not disgraced in her heat & is certainly worth a place bet at least at the monster odds.

Monica My Dear (Race 2 no. 9) $21 ($5 by $15)
I’ve already outlined above why I like a couple at odd sin this race and this girl gets a guernsey due to her wonderfully consistent recent record, handy trailing draw and top heat run behind Sundons Promise (13) so you can also back her for a place and even have something small for her to win.

Edge Hill (Race 3 no. 12) $31/$6 ($20 PLACE) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I don’t really give this girl much of a winning hope but she is bordering on veteran status for a 2YO trotter and arrives here with all the right formlines, having beaten Im Stately (11) on debut and tested Miracle (10) four starts back at Maryborough. Not much went right in her heat of this series and at $6 a place you’d be silly not to have a little something on.

Shandon Village (Race 6 no. 4) $21 ($5 by $15)
I do have a soft spot for this bloke but he’s also racing in career best form and in an even sort of race he’s certainly worth a 1x3 wager, particularly given the fact he should lob a handy role in transit from the handy front line draw.

Steal A Sixpence (Race 8 no. 5) $41/$6.16 ($20 PLACE) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
A bit like Edge Hill in the Tatlow final, this bloke has been ignored by bookmakers purely because they’ve been consumed by the high profile, big name runners. See below for a little critique & tell me why he should be $41/$6.16
* Fours starts back he lost to Our Dreamlover (6) by 1.6m off level marks racing under unsuitable standing-start conditions. Our Dreamlover (6) is currently $12 w/ TAB.
* Three starts back he convincingly defeated subsequent SA Trotters Derby winner, Glenferrie Dreamer (10) @ Melton. Glenferrie Dreamer (10) is currently $13 w/ TAB.
* Last start he convincingly defeated subsequent NSW Trotters Derby placegetter, Vincennes and tonight he draws to lead or sit handy in the run.
I’m not sure he can win but $6.16 the drum is good enough for me.

The Money Race – Race 11

Pretty simple philosophy here that Fifth And Broadway (5) will be too good & Chasing Chelsea (1) should almost certainly run a drum if she hands up as expected.
5/ 1/ 3,6,8. $60 gets 2000%
5/ 3,6/ 1. $20 gets 1000%
5/ 3,6,/ 3,6,8. $20 gets 500%

Quaddies (x2)

5,6/ 9/ 1,3,4,5,6,7,10/ 1,2,4,8,10,13. $42 gets 50%
5,6/ 1,2,4,5,8,10/ 1,3,4,5,6,7,10/ 1,2,4,8,10,13. $58 gets 11.51%

No Jackpot BIG6 tonight. You’re on your own there!!

Thursday, May 30, 2013

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night at Shepparton

THE GAME PLAN for Shepparton – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Tonight’s meeting is yet another tricky one to work out and much like today at Hamilton I can’t find a race where we can play some exotics with confidence so I’m going to back a number of runners, either straight out or each way plus go nice and wide in the Quaddie because I think there is some value on offer.  Here we go!  


Nuggets Brother (Race 2 no. 7)                       $2.80             $50 win
Handy 3YO who found his best form to win at Kilmore last start where he boxed on too strongly for Magic Moment Lombo and although he draws widey tonight I think Greg Sugars will press forward with him, race in or near the lead and give us a great sight.
Almost El Eagle (Race 3 no. 11)              $2.50             $50 win
Above average 3YO who wasn’t at his best in the George Croxford Tribute Final at Echuca back in March behind Sokys Bigbullet and he hasn’t been to the trials to fire him up for tonight’s assignment but if he is anywhere near the mark I think he will be a shade too strong for his rivals.

Miss Polly Potts (Race 8 no. 1)                         $2.80             $50 win
This filly found trouble at Kilmore last start when down the track behind Raylan Gibbins but she had run handy races prior behind nice types Motor Smoker and Drunken Jeff and unless one of the debutantes are right out of the box I think she has a great chance of busting her maiden.


Fusion (Race 5 no. 8)                               $3.50                         $15 win x $35 place
The draw could be great or not so great for this bloke as Forbidden Forest will either hold the lead from the pole, which would be ideal for our tip, or he will take the trail, which will leave our guy three-back the pegs, but no matter where he ends up I still think he is worthy of a gamble each way.

Stormed Out (Race 7 no. 8)                   $5                               $15 win x $35 place
Similar to Fusion in Race 5, this fellow will be reliant on a slice of luck from where he is drawn but he has been very good at Melton at his past two, winning there two back and running home nicely into fourth behind Ourbellabro last time and with the right fortune and a little bit of Chris Alford magic I think he will go close.

1,2,7,10,11/ 1,4,6,7,8/ 1,3,5/ 1,4,5,7,8,9,10.  $100 gets you 19.04%

Good Form Preview - Thursday at Hamilton

THE GAME PLAN for Hamilton – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Today’s meeting is a tricky one and I can’t find a single race where we can play some exotics with confidence so I’m going back to basics and having two win bets plus a crack at the Quaddie in a number of different ways to ensure I cover all bases. 


Cheap Tint (Race 5 no. 6) $2.80                          $100 win
This guy is a tough, staying type of 4YO from the Kevin Brough stable who is building up an enviable record and he should be mighty hard to roll in this second up from a break after running an encouraging second to Nassooa at Globe Derby 12 days ago where he did his share of work over the concluding stages.  Matt Craven reunites with him today, which is a big plus, as Matt has driven him to victory 5 of the 8 times he has saluted and although he will have to earn it from the wide draw I think he is still a terrific gamble.

Keayang Falcon (Race 7 no. 9) $1.80              $100 win
Classy 4YO from the Marg Lee barn who resumes from a 6-month break today off the back of a solid trial hit out from behind the tapes at Terang 11 days ago where he finished second to stable mate Keayang Steamer at the end of a 57.0 second final half.  He should get a nice run through from his trailing draw and with a bit of speed expected in the early stages I think he can run home over the top of them.

QUADDIES X 4 $100 Total Spend
1,2,3,8,9,10,11/ 6/ 2,4,8/ 9.  $25 gets you 119.14%
1,2,3,8,9,10,11/ 6/ 2,4,8/ 2,4,7.  $25 gets you 39.68%
1,2,3,8,9,10,11/ 2,4,5,7/ 2,4,8/ 9.  $25 gets you 29.76%
1,2,3,8,9,10,11/ 2,4,5,7/ 2,4,8/ 2,4,7.  $25 gets you 9.92%

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Good Form Preview - Wednesday night @ Geelong

The Game Plan for Geelong - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Tonight’s card at Beckley Park looks a ripper on paper and there are two Money Races – one in particular – that I feel can yield a substantial return if we play hard and the cards fall as expected. As always we’re also having a good dig at the quads but I’ve got a feeling Race 4 will hold the key to our night!

The Money Races
Race 4
This is as good a betting race as you’re likely to see, with the best horses in the race, Doomed (1) & Goodtime Mike (8) also likely to lob the best positions (leader/behind leader) & equally likely to fight out the race. I’ve got a strong preference for Doomed (1) here and also think there are a few runners who can be ruled out as even First 4 propositions so play hard and I’m confident you’ll at least double your money.

1/ 8/ 4,9/ 4,9. $40 gets 2000%
1/ 8/ 4,9/ 5,10. $40 gets 1000%
8/ 1/ 4,9/ 4,9. $10 gets 500%
8/ 1/ 4,9/ 5,10. $10 gets 250%

Race 5
This race would be even better to play in if Hexham Heartbeat (7) hadn’t gone so poorly first up from a spell but her and Brite Spark Lombo (6) should still dominate w/ even luck and if for any reason they don’t we’ll play a saver just in case.

6,7/ 6,7/ 4,8,9. $40 gets 666.67%
6,7/ 4,8,9/ 6,7. $10 gets 166.67%

1/ 6,7/ 2,4,6,9/ 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,11. $80 gets 125%
8/ 6,7/ 2,4,6,9/ 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,11. $20 gets 31.25%

THE GAME PLAN for Geelong – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)


Gohardorgohome (Race 2 no. 4)          $100 place
This bloke is no star and he has had numerous chances to win a race without success but I thought he was pretty good behind Itz Dreamin Jonesy in the Bendigo Guineas last Saturday night and with his gate speed likely to take him to the pegs first I can see Daryl Douglas handing up to Lightning Shark to ensure he gets every hope to run the drum.  I’m guessing he will be around the $2.50 mark for the place and I’m prepared to have a lash at him at those odds.  


Race 4
This looks a classic case of leader/behind leader here with Doomed in front and Goodtime Mike on his back and I think that is the way they will finish with Guggenheim whacking away in the breeze and almost certain to run third.  I will play hard with that trio in a straight Trifecta and also take another one with Another Elsu and Kazaree to run third just in case. We won’t get rich off this race but a reasonable profit should be made if all goes to plan.  Below is how I’m spending $100.

1/ 8/ 4.  $60 gets you 6000%
1/ 8/ 5,9.  $40 gets you 2000%

Race 5
Like the above Money Race there are only two possible winning chances here in the form of Hexham Heartbeat and Brite Spark Lombo and they really should finish 1,2 so I’m going to base some Trifectas around the pair with the remaining runners (who are all in with a shot at filling a place to varying degrees) in a number of different ways to ensure I have everything covered.  Below is how I’m spending $100.

6,7/ 6,7/ 4,8,9.  $48 gets you 800%
6,7/ 6,7/ 1,2,3,5.  $32 gets you 400%
6,7/ 4,8,9/ 6,7.  $12 gets you 200%
6,7/ 1,2,3,5/ 6,7.  $8 gets you 100%

QUADDIES X 4 $100 Total Spend
1/ 6,7/ 2/ 1,2,3,4,8,9.  $34 gets you 283.33%
1/ 6,7/ 6,7,9/ 1,2,3,4,8,9.  $36 gets you 100%
8/ 6,7/ 2/ 1,2,3,4,8,9.  $12 gets you 100%
8/ 6,7/ 6,7,9/ 1,2,3,4,8,9.  $18 gets you 50%

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Charlton

The Game Plan for Charlton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s an interesting programme @ Charlton today with a couple of good things that will start at a short quote and plenty of races w/ more questions than answers. I’m playing it pretty safe by targeting those two races where we can isolate the winner & trying to make some coin from exotic wagers. I’ve also attacked the Quads w/ gusto as usual and found a Star Trialler in the programme’s final race.

The Money Races
Race 2
Timeseel (4) is likely to start at an extraordinarily prohibitive quote here but we will use that to our advantage as he will almost certainly win the race. There are three key chances to run in behind the favourite that and beyond that it’s a bit of a mystery. We’ll be lucky to make a fortune here but we’re almost assured of some little profit from the race.

4/ 1,3,6/ 1,3,6,11. $41 gets 455.56%
4/ 1,3,6/ 2,8,12. $9 gets 100%

Race 5
Hayden (2) is an above average 3YO who has the gate speed to lead these and should stay in that role throughout. He won’t be as short as Timeseel but looks very close a good thing and once again there are three main hopes to finish second. Most  of these can lob the bronze medal though so we’ll stagger up three Tricks and hope for some value in the placings.

2/ 1,5,8/ 1,5,8. $24 gets 400%
2/ 1,5,8/ 9,10,11,12. $24 gets 200%
2/ 1,5,8/ 6,7. $2 gets 33.33%

1,3,4,6/ 2/ 2/ 1,5,9. $37 gets 308.33%
1,3,4,6/ 2/ 2/ 2,7,10. $18 gets 150%
1,3,4,6/ 2/ 5,6,7,9,11/ 1,5,9. $30 gets 50%
1,3,4,6/ 2/ 5,6,7,9,11/ 2,7,10. $15 gets 25%

Star Trialler
Marita Louise OK (Race 8 no. 13)
She didn’t’ set the world on fire in terms of mile rate (2.11) but this very talented trotter did rip home in 60.8 around Echuca’s tight circuit on May 12 for a handy 4m win over the handy Robbie Zuve. She has the 20m handicap to contend with today but her best form is very good and if she’s ready to roll she should go very close.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night at Mildura

THE GAME PLAN for Mildura – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)


Maastricht (Race 4 no. 5) $2.50                      $200 win
This mare has been in great form for Shayne Cramp this campaign and tonight she aims up for the hat trick of victories on this track after dominant triumphs at her two runs back from a lengthy break.  She draws widely with some pace to her inside but the way she is going at present I don’t think it will stop her from continuing on her winning way.


Race 3
This looks a great race to target with the Shayne Cramp duo of Changing Code and Phantom Of The Opera the ones to beat with Fineandsunny a clear third pick so I’m going to use them as a base for some First Fours.  Below is how I’m spending $100.

1,4/ 1,4/ 6/ 2,3,9,10.  $40 gets you 500%
1,4/ 6/ 1,4/ 2,3,9,10.  $40 gets you 500%
1,4/ 1,4/ 2,3,9,10/ 6.  $20 gets you 250%

Race 8
There are three strong winning chances here in the form of Shezagrinner, Al Oh Al Ae Lola and Android with Modernize, Pazarooney, Ronzel Smart Art and Wet Paint having excellent place claims so I’m going to take some First Fours around them.  Below is how I’m spending $100.

3,4,7/ 3,4,7/ 3,4,7/ 2,5,8,10.  $38 gets you 158.33%
3,4,7/ 3,4,7/ 2,5,8,10/ 3,4,7.  $38 gets you 158.33%
3,4,7/ 2,5,8,10/ 3,4,7/ 3,4,7.  $24 gets you 100%

QUADDIES X 2 $100 Total Spend
5/ 6,7,9,10/ 3,11/ 1,2,3,4,6,7.  $48 gets you 100%
1,4,6,7/ 6,7,9,10/ 3,11/ 1,2,3,4,6,7.  $52 gets you 27.08%

Monday, May 27, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Warragul

The Game Plan for Warragul – Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Today’s programme is littered w/ short priced favourites and most of them will win but it is ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL to be on the speed – in front if possible – at Warragul if you want success and with some of the best hopes of the day drawn awkwardly there could be an upset or two. Having said that we’re going to base most of the day’s operations around a virtual Formula 3 in the guise of a Quaddie & 2 Money Races which should go close to the mark. There is also one Star Trialler engaged for those who love an under-the-radar hope at odds.

The Money Races
Race 3
We’re not going to retire on the profits from this race but if it gives us a few extra bucks to launch into our Quads it will have done its job! The theory here is that Hectorjayjay (3) & Viewpoint (7) are the established guns and should fight out the finish but that with a couple of first-starters also engaged we’ll play it safe and hope for a result.

3,7/ 3,7/ 1,2,5,6,8. $36 gets 360%
3,7/ 5,6/ 3,7. $8 gets 200%
3,7/ 1,2,8/ 3,7. $6 gets 100%

Race 4
Rowillie (4) has been unkind to me in the past but all is forgiven now and in a race of limited quality here he should roll to the lead and lead his rivals a merry dance for sure. Got Nothing (2) is genuine and looks equally likely to fill a hole and Mor Laag (3) is the next best candidate to fill out the Trifecta. There are a few others w/ place hoped though so have a few digs at it.

4/ 2/ 3. $12 gets 1200%
4/ 2/ 6,7,8,9. $24 gets 600%
4/ 3/ 2. $6 gets 600%
4/ 6,7,8,9/ 2. $8 gets 200%

Quaddies (x4)
4/ 1/ 10/ 8. $20 gets 2000%
4/ 1/ 10/ 1,5,7. $30 gets 1000%
4/ 1/ 3,5/ 8. $20 gets 1000%
4/ 2,3,7/ 10/ 8. $30 gets 1000%

Star Trialler (Racing Today)
Sals Mo (Race 7 no. 5) $12
Hugh Cathels has regained this son of Art Major after his stint w/ Luke McCarthy in Sydney and he showed every indication he’s an improved animal when narrowly missing in a 56.1-second last half at the Cranbourne trials back in March. He strikes a pretty strong race for his return to Vic but appeals as Each Way value at the double-figure quote.

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Good Form Preview - Sunday @ Terang

The Game Plan for Terang – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Extending this late call-up for one more day after a handy return at Bendigo last night, but it won’t be easy w/ only six races to study. As always we’ll have a few cracks at the Quad, which will be active in races 3 through 6, while I’ve also found a couple of Money Races and one Star Trialler on the card.
The Money Races
Race 3
Flaxton Filly (1)is something of a non-winner, but she really does appear to have this race on toast from the tidy draw. If she can kick through and hold them out early andYes Jerry (2) can lob her back then they should run one-two in that order but it’s a moderate race so we’ll play things safe for obvious reasons.
1/ 2/ 3,4,6. $30 gets 1000%
1/ 4/ 2,3,6. $9 gets 300%
2/ 1/ 3,4,6. $8 gets 266.67%
4/ 1/ 3,4,6. $3 gets 100%
Race 7
Lavra Florence (1)has some speed drawn outside her but if Kyle Marshall puts the foot down early he should be able to kick up and hold the early lead. All things being equal,Burston Holme (8) should then lobe her back but there are a few ifs in there so don’t break the bank.
1,8/ 1,8/ 2,4,6,7. $40 gets 500%
1,8/ 2,4,6,7/ 1,8. $10 gets 125%
Quaddies (x4)
1/ 7,8/ 4,5,6,8/ 1,8. $40 gets 250%
1/ 5,6,9/ 4,5,6,8/ 1,8. $30 gets 125%
2,4/ 7,8/ 4,5,6,8/ 1,8. $20 gets 62.5%
2,4/ 5,6,9/ 4,5,6,8/ 1,8. $10 gets 20.83%
Star Trialler
My Bros Dreaming (Race 4 no. 8)
He is a 4YO son of Armbro Operative who did plenty wrong on debut but resumes here on the back of a 25m trial win on this course last Sunday where he rated 2:02.1 and finished off in 58.1. This isn’t a strong race so a repeat of that effort would almost see him win.

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Good Form Preview - Saturday night @ Bendigo

The Game Plan for Bendigo – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I’m a late call-up from the bench for this meeting but I reckon I’ve found three Best Bets, one Money race and a few Quads which should ensure we win back whatever we may have lost on last night’s brutal Melton programme (I tipped half the card and still lost on the punt!).
Best Bets/ Formula 2
I reckon we’ll get better than 6/4 about all of these runners and two of the three may even start in the black so back them individually, take a Formula 2 and even have a sneaky all-up if you have the folding.
Kensington Palace (Race 4 no. 7) $2.20
This girl could not be accused of being overly strong but she is lightning off the arm and if Nathan Jack stokes her up early here she should cross the lot at the start and with the Bendigo sprint trip favouring leaders and those on the pegs I think they’ll have a hard time mowing her down.
Bettor Believe It (Race 6 no. 11) $1.60
I’ve got a funny feeling that Amy Tubbs would have a real soft spot for this mare as she usually gives of her best and is rarely far from the mark. Tonight she strikes a moderate field and if everything goes to plan her turn of foot will be the difference in the lane.
Youranut (Race 7 no. 9) $1.90
This guy is headed toward the Vicbred Super Series for 4YO boys and based on his performances since joining team Sugars he’ll be more than competitive in that grade. In short, that means he has a clear class edge on his rivals here and should almost certainly prove a shade too good.
The Money Race – Race 7
As previously mentioned I think Youranut (9) is on his way to bigger and better things and should be winning tonight. I’m almost equally confident that Centonic (6) will run a drum and also looms as the only horse capable of causing an upset. That being said, I’m playing the Tricks below and suggest that you do the same.
9/ 6/ 3,5,7,8,12. $50 gets 1000%
9/ 3,5,7,8,12/ 6. $30 gets 600%
6/ 9/ 3,5,7,8,12. $20 gets 400%
7/ 1,6,7,10,11,12/ 11/ 9. $22 gets 366.67%
7/ 1,6,7,10,11,12/ 11/ 6. $6 gets 100%
7/ 1,6,7,10,11,12/ 4,5,6,7,8,9,10/ 9. $42 gets 100%
2,3,6,8,9/ 1,6,7,10,11,12/ 11/ 9. $30 gets 100%

Friday, May 24, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ Melton


Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

$25,000 JACKPOT BIG6
I love a Big6 Jackpot at Melton on a Friday night because there is always plenty of value on offer and with a sizeable pool expected tonight I’m going to have a good crack at it. I’m going to spend $200 on the below combinations and hope for a windfall result.

3/ 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10/ 7/ 1,2,3,5/ 1,2,4,8,10,13,15/ 2,6,10.
$100 gets you 14.88%

1,4,6,9,10,11/ 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10/ 7/ 1,2,4,8,10,13,15/ 2,6,10.
$100 gets you 2.48%


Teo Enteo (Race 9 no. 1) $3 - $100 win
This bloke has had no luck with the barrier draws of late and he has been running nice races all things considered but tonight he finally comes up with a decent gate. He races best when driven sit-sprint and tonight he looks like gaining the perfect trail behind likely leader Barkers Hall and I think he has a great chance of running by them via the passing lane in the stretch.

Race 8
Distant Memory, Shes A Runa and My Bella Starr look to have the wood on their rivals here with strong place claims going to Tuscan Breeze, Tallulah Bay, Colleens Medley and Ourgirlbillielee so I’m going to use them as a base for some First Fours. Below is how I’m spending $100.

2,6,10/ 2,6,10/ 2,6,10/ 7,8,9,13. $52 gets you 216.66%
2,6,10/ 2,6,10/ 7,8,9,13/ 2,6,10. $36 gets you 150%
2,6,10/ 7,8,9,13/ 2,6,10/ 2,6,10. $12 gets you 50%

Race 10
Heats of this final were conducted here last Sunday night with Our Great Spirit and Flyin Indi Air looking much better than their rivals so I’m going to take some Trifectas around them. Below is how I’m spending $100.

4,9/ 4,9/ 10. $25 gets you 1250%
4,9/ 10/ 4,9. $15 gets you 750%
4,9/ 4,9/ 1,2,6,8,12,13. $60 gets you 500%

1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10/ 7/ 1,2,3,5/ 1,2,4,8,10,13,15. $100 gets you 44.64%


Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value
Classic Bliss (Race 1 no. 12) $12 ($25 Each Way)
Like most races tonight, this is a wide open affair but in my opinion this girl is a dead-set miler that mowed down Three Pints like he was pinned to the pegs and then beat all but La Machane home from a similar alley to this in the Vicbred Platinum Mares Sprint Championship final. She was also very good in the Cinderella Stakes last start and in a race where I suspect the cream will rise to the top I’m super keen to back her on an Each Way basis.

Best Roughies
Miz Lulabell Lombo (Race 1 no. 8) $31 ($10 by $40)
I know we’ve already had a crack at Classic Bliss (12) in this race but I’m happy to have a saver on this girl too if she comes up at the odds she’s marked in today’s Herald Sun. The philosophy here is that she is at least as talented as most of these and should enjoy a gun run either behind the leader or three pegs at worst 9and as I’ve said many timed three pegs is not the worst place to be at Melton over the 1720m trip). Either way she’s a 1x3 proposition and I’m keen to have something on.

Puddinhead (Race 2 no. 4) $31 ($10 by $40)
This is a particularly moderate 3YO affair where fi9nding the lead will go a long way towards getting you the chocolates and if this filly begins as quickly as she can I think she’ll find the lamp-lighting role. The last time she led over the 1720m at Melton she won in a mile rate of 1:58.3, so the equation is this: if she gets the front we’re a massive chance of filling a hole at least – if she doesn’t find the front it’s onward and upward to the next race on the card.

Backas Cobber (Race 3 no. 2) $31 TAB Fixed Odds ($10 by $40) - Click here to bet on this horse now
Sometimes in this game you can worry that you might be going mad, but when I saw the TAB had opened this bloke at $41 I nearly fell off my chair. He is first-up from a break tonight but to offset that he’s won a moderate Shepparton trial and he looks a massive chance of finding the early lead. At his best this bloke beat My High Expectations (3) by 27m in a NSW Trotters Derby, win two Trotters Cups and finish third in an inter Dominion heat behind I Can Doosit and Sundons Gift. It’s very speculative but I’m happy to be on this bloke just in case he’s somewhere near that form.

The Money Races
Race 8
Heats for this Tatlow Final told a pretty damning story and I think the runners that dominated there in Distant Memory (2), Shes A Runa (6) and My Bella Star (10) will do so again. Ourgirlbillilee (13)continues to have X-Factor and could blow us out if the speed was frenetic throughout but if not I think the below bets should have things covered.

2,6,10 Boxed. $18 gets 300%
2,6,10/ 2,6,10/ 5,7,8,9,13. $75 gets 250%
2,6,10/ 7,8,13/ 2,6,10. $7 gets 38.89%

Race 9
It’s rare that we can be almost 100% of where the key runners will settle in a race but I would be flabbergasted if Barkers Hall (4) didn’t lead with Teo Enteo (1) on his back and Keayang Rustler (8) three back the poles. Barkers Hall (4) usually rolls once he finds the front so expect life to be tough for those in the running line or wider on the course and for peg domination to reign supreme. Nothing is set in stone but I’m confident if we attack the race as outlined below we’ll be winning.

1,4,8 Boxed. $18 gets 300%
1,4,8/ 1,4,8/ 2,5,6,9,10,11. $54 gets 150%
1,4,8/ 2,5,6,9,10,11/ 1,4,8. $28 gets 77.78%

3,5,6,8,10/ 7/ 2,3,5,6,10/ 1,2,4,13,15. $62.50 gets 50%
3,5,6,8,10/ 7/ 1,4,7,8/ 1,2,4,13,15. $38.50 gets 38.5%

$25K Jackpot BIG6
2,3,4,6/ 3,5,6,8,10/ 7/ 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10/ 1,2,4,13,15/ 2,6,10. $100 gets 3.7%

* Just a note here, that you should probably take EITHER the Quads OR the BIG6. They overlap quite heavily as you would expect and playing one way is probably enough.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Echuca

THE GAME PLAN for Echuca – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)


Beachstar (Race 4 no. 7) $6
This bloke has been crying out to win one at odds for a little while now and he looks to have found a race he can be dangerous in tonight as he should trail likely leader Beau Romulus, or end up three-back the inside if Miss Elvira happens to spear to the front from out wide, and with a cheap run on the pegs I’m expecting him to be hard to hold out over the concluding stages at nice each way odds.  I’m having $30 x $70 on him.


Race 5
This looks a great race to target with Illawong Joyful the one to beat with Fantastic Arden the upset material and two strong place chances in the form of Saint Liliana and Pensicola so I’m going to base some skinny Trifectas around them.  Below is how I’m spending $100.

4/ 3/ 1,5.  $50 gets you 2500%
4/ 1,5/ 3.  $30 gets you 1500%
3/ 4/ 1,5.  $20 gets you 1000%

QUADDIES X 2 $100 Total Spend
1,6,7/ 4/ 7/ 10.  $15 gets you 500%
1,6,7/ 3,4/ 5,6,7,8/ 1,5,9,10.  $85 gets you 88.54%


Manuka Man (Race 1 no. 9) $2.80
Our Sir Vancelot 4YO on debut for Luke Primmer who should take beating first up going by his latest trial success at Cobram a month ago where he slipped home in 57.5.  The back row draw over the 1755m is a hurdle but he follows out a fast beginner and should settle in a striking position.

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Geelong

THE GAME PLAN for Geelong – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)


Glenferrie College (Race 5 no. 1)        $1.60
It Is Billy (Race 7 no. 7)                           $1.80
Our Summer Wind (Race 8 no. 3)        $1.40

If you’re an odds on punter you can back these all individually to get a result but I’m going to take it a step further and couple them together in an All Up.  I’m throwing $100 at it in the hope everything goes to plan and I see a return of $300+.


Race 4
This looks a great race to target with three strong winning chances in the form of Precious Dragon, Galeforce Grin and Mach Robyn with Comeon Getalife and Cindy Marie the next best so I’m going to take a couple of First Fours around them.  Below is how I’m spending $100.

1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 4,10.  $72 gets you 600%
1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 4,10/ 1,2,8.  $28 gets you 233.33%

Race 5
Glenferrie College holds all of the aces from the pole draw as she should do enough to hold the lead and once there he really should win so I’m going to base some Trifectas around him with Rubys Bad Boy, Lively Princess, Kiwi Rage and Easy Lightning plus take a saver just in case.  Below is how I’m spending $100.

1/ 6/ 7,8,10.  $26 gets you 866.66%
1/ 7,8,10/ 6.  $26 gets you 866.66%
1/ 7,8,10/ 7,8,10.  $24 gets you 400%
6,7,8,10/ 1/ 6,7,8,10.  $24 gets you 200%

Race 7
It Is Billy is flying at present and he really should be too good for these but I do concede upset chances to Our Eastwood Cullen and Echeveria so I’m going to take some Trifectas around that trio a number of different ways to ensure I cover all bases.  Below is how I’m spending $100.

7/ 3,8/ Field.  $80 gets you 571.42%
3,8/ 7/ Field.  $20 gets you 142.85%

QUADDIES X 4 $100 Total Spend
1,2,8/ 1/ 2,6,10,11/ 7.  $34 gets you 283.33%
1,2,8/ 1/ 2,6,10,11/ 3,8.  $18 gets you 75%
1,2,8/ 6,7,8,10/ 2,6,10,11/ 7.  $24 gets you 50%
1,2,8/ 6,7,8,10/ 2,6,10,11/ 3,8.  $24 gets you 25%


The Boss Man (Race 1 no. 5) $1.70
Star young trotter resuming from a short break today and he should be ready to run a big race first up going by his latest trial success at Bendigo last Sunday where he dominated his only rival by a big space in solid time.  He may have to do the work outside of main danger Glenferrie Typhoon but he is up to the challenge.