Friday, May 3, 2013

Good Form Preview - 4 & 5YO Championship Night at Melton


Michael Polster (@mickpolster)


Race 7
It looks a tricky night at headquarters with no real standout bets but I think we can get some cash in the feature event, the 4 & 5YO Championship.  I’m sure everyone’s speed map has American Muscle in front, Bellas Delight on his back and Savesomtimetodream three-back along the pegs and they should dominate this race, so I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know, but that makes it a goldmine from a punting point of view and I’m going to attack it in a number of different ways.  Below is how I’m playing for a total of $300, which along with my Quaddie and Big6 will take my outlay for the night to $500.

Boxed Trifecta:  1,2,8.  $120 gets you 2000%
First Four:  1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 3,5,6,7,9.  $90 gets you 300%
First Four:  1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 3,5,6,7,9/ 1,2,8.  $90 gets you 300%

3,6,9/ 1,4,5,7,9,10/ 1,2,3,9/ 1,2,8.  $100 gets you 46.29%

2,12,13/ 3,6,9/ 1,4,5,7,9,10/ 1,2,3,9/ 1,2,8/ 2,6,9,10.  $100 gets you 3.85%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s been a very tricky week to find winners and tonight looks no different, but I’ve found three horses I’m confident can get the cash, two Money Races that should keep us from the poor-house and also some Quads & Jackpot BIG6’s via which we can hope for a windfall result.

Best Bets/ Formula 2
Just like last week we’re going to throw three horses into the mix, expecting all three to get the prize but only needing two to pass the post first. Here they are…

American Muscle (Race 7 no. 7) $3 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
People are jumping out of trees trying to knock this bloke but he has gone from copping heat all the way and still prevailing two weeks back to sitting-up and out-sprinting his rivals last week, so there are no chinks in his armour and the only way he gets beaten tonight is if he’s at the end of his tether this campaign.

Fon Design (Race 9 no. 7) $5.50
Here are the facts; this girl is so well regarded that she started a $1.80 favourite in her heat of the APG series at Melton two starts back and was narrowly beaten by Fast Flyer and Manellira who will both be fancied in tomorrow night’s $300,000 APG Final at Albion Park. She didn’t have a great deal of luck that night and has since gone on to dominate her rivals at Ballarat so if you’re getting anything like the $5.50 quoted in today’s Herald Sun, GET ON BOARD.

Pressplay (Race 11 no. 8) $1.90
This one is pretty simple; in a very even field she is the class factor and if Caledonian Attack (1) leads as expected and gets her to the sprint lane, I can’t see them holding her out late.

Best Roughies
There is value everywhere tonight and I will be as vigilant as possible when it comes to Tweeting overs throughout the evening but here are a few that are worth backing in some shape or form at their Herald Sun prices.

Arber (Race 6 no. 8) $21 ($50 Place)
Everybody seems to have Im Barney Rubble (2) in front here but I feel confident Ubringthedrinks (1) will hold the top over his preferred short course and if he does then my bloke will get an ideal run in behind the speed. Even if he doesn’t, three pegs is not a bad place to be around Melton’s 1720m trip and after having no luck whatsoever last weekend he can certainly run a drum at massive odds tonight.

Madam Pom Pom (Race 8 no. 13) $15 ($10 x $40)
This girl is no moral but she does boast more prizemoney than any horse engaged, hasn’t missed a place in her past eight runs and recorded 1:55.7 for the Bendigo sprint trip two starts back. That form reads very well for a horse marked at $15 so have something the win and plenty the place and you’ll get a great run for your dough.

Purple Village (Race 12 no. 3) $12 ($10 x $40)
This bloke has not had one inch of luck at any run this campaign and is itching to break through for a win. He draws nicely tonight and while Machabiba (1) is the horse to beat, she doesn’t win out of turn and when one horse is & the other is $12, it’s not a difficult choice where to put your hard-earned.

The Money Races

Race 3

2,12,13/ 2,5,12,13/ 2,5,12,13. $54 gets 150%
2,12,13/ 2,5,12,13/ 1,3,8,11. $46 gets 95.83%
Race 7
2/ 1,8/ 1,8. $50 gets 2500%
1,8/ 2/ 1,8. $20 gets 1000%
2/ 1,8/ 7,9. $20 gets 500%
1,8/ 2/ 7,9. $10 gets 250%

Quaddies (x2)
The best tip all night is that the Quaddie & BIG6 will pay HUGE, so play very, very wide and hope for a monster result.

1,3,4,6,7,8,9,10/ 1,2,4,5,7,9,10/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9/ 2. $50 gets 12.76%
1,3,4,6,7,8,9,10/ 1,2,4,5,7,9,10/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9/ 1,8. $50 gets 6.38%

$10K Jackpot BIG6
This suggestion is a little outside the norm for the Good Form blog as you’ll need to spend $250 just to get a tick over 1%. Yes, it is that difficult. Only have a crack here if you’ve got the funds to do it. The result may be massive but the outlay is significant as well.

2,12,13/ 1,3,4,6,7,8,9,10/ 1,2,4,5,7,9,10/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9/ 1,2,8/  2,6,9,10,12,13.
$250 gets 1.03%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – David Miles

Best Chance

Dungeon Queen (Race 4 no.8) $6.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“It was probably her first run where we weren’t’ absolutely stoked with her, we thought she was just slightly off her game but she’s had a three week gap between runs now and if the one can hold the lead then we will be very hard to beat.

“I really like her; I’d say she is our best chance for the night.”

Chuck Wagon (Race 1 no.7) $8.50
“He can just be a bit funny around the first corner but once he got around the first bend and he was outside the leader I thought he would win – and he did.
"He just lacks a little bit of early speed to drive him into a position and he ends up caught three wide. He is running eighth’s beaten 12 metres at Melton in some nice races but his runs have been super.
"If he trots around the first corner and he lands in the first four he is going to be awfully hard to beat again."

Sparks Ignite (Race 1 no.9) $5.50
"I thought the mare was slightly disappointing at Coolamon, I thought she should have won but Lisa did say the track was very deep and she just felt like she didn’t trot as smoothly as she can.

“She galloped out in the Coulter Crown that My High Expectations won but her sectionals that night were outstanding. She just smashed the clock – she just wasn’t in the picture.

"If she gets a good run through I’d expect them both to be very competitive."

Paintball (Race 2 no.2) $21
“Her last couple have been just even but we’ve given her a freshen up. Mind you I’ve probably found the strongest $8,000 known to man.

"This mare really likes the speed on and she’s a very honest mare so if she is running third fourth or fifth she will look a chance of winning at some stage. In this race she can hopefully sit off the speed and race better for it.

Ourbellabro (Race 8 no.2) $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She was probably a victim at Warragul of trialling too good. She beat Macha at the trials; he sat on her back and couldn’t run past us. We thought she would just go out and win but she sat parked and was just plain.

“It was a month between runs before Bendigo the other night and we thought if she was back to her best she would just win but even though her trackwork had been okay we weren’t sure whether we had freshened her up enough.
"People saw just how good she is, she is a very good mare; I expect her to go through to free for all mares class and she’s got plenty of gate speed.

“I know Inky Cullen is building a pretty good record but they are going to have to sit outside her to beat her and if they can do that then they are pretty special."
Braeview Warrior (Race 12 no.8) $21

“He just ducked in a couple of times and it probably cost him running third or fourth – if he had run there he would probably go around third or fourth favourite here and be a big chance.

"Hopefully he steers a little better down on the pegs. His run before that was a second to Ashira Bromac who would start $1.50 in this type of race. He is just a good honest battler who has been great for the Raceapacer syndicate."

Mindarie Priddy (Albion Park Saturday night Race 6 no.9) $1.70 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s just a bit headstrong; going those times I think they were all pretty flat at the end

“There is plenty of untapped ability there, she is just a bit raw at the moment but it will get better with racing.”

“The big filly Mindarie Priddy has obviously got more ability but the other filly is a really professional pacer. If Mindarie Priddy makes a mistake she will take advantage of it,” he said

“Even if she has to have a tough trip from the second row it could bring Manellira into the race.”

Manellira (Albion Park Saturday night Race 6 no.6) $5.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She just over raced at the 500 and ducked out a little bit at the wrong time and touched a wheel. She got down again pretty quickly though and really motored, she actually won pretty arrogantly on the line,” he said.

“They went a second and a half slower than the other heat and it probably wasn’t as strong on paper but still, she did it with some authority.

“She is a great little racehorse apart from making that one little mistake the other day, she’s got a great bit of speed. She’s not the best of trackworker’s but on raceday she’s turned it on.”

Sectional Superstar

Our Blackbird (Race 7 no. 9) $16/$3.85 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here now to bet on this horse
If you’re looking for one to back at odds in the 4YO & 5YO Championship then look no further than this guy as he reeled off some superb numbers in last weekend’s Sokyola Sprint. Pacing a final mile 1:53.49, with a last half of 54.66 and a final quarter of 27.43 he was very unlucky not to finish a lot closer than sixth and with a cosy run tonight he can trouble the favoured runners for sure.

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Stirling Charmer: 54.64secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Salohcin: 27.4secs
Fastest Last Mile – Jaccka Clive: 1:53.31

Speed Maps

Standing start trots are also tricky to map but BUNTYS BASS (1), DUKE OF THE MOMENT (4) and GENTLEMANS HONOUR (5) are all swift beginners on their day and should be fighting out the early lead.  A number of these including CHUCK WAGON (7) and EARL OF MOT (13) also enjoy racing tough so expect plenty of pressure with potential sit-sprinters like JARVSOFAKS (3) and MOTU YOUNG JACOB (12) given every chance to blouse their rivals late.

BORN AGAIN SASSY (3) is a swift beginner and noted leader who is sure to push her way forward in search of the top early on. If she finds it then THE GOOD TIMES (1) will land the gun run in behind the speed with SHAKE IT MAMA (8) either lobbing three back the pegs or pulling out to make her luck in transit. Most of the other runners engaged thrive upon sit-sprint racing so expect PAINTBALL (2) to try and find the chair after dropping out soon after the start.

There are several fast beginners drawn off the front line but SHES AN IMAGE (2) is expected to find the front within 100m of the start. ILLAWONG MAGIC (5) should be obliged to face the breeze from his awkward front line draw with IDLE SUNTIME (1) trailing the speed and class trotters STONED I AM (12) and WAIKARE PATRICIA (13) either making mid-race moves or tracking each other into the race wide out on the track.

NIGHT AFFAIR (6) holds the key to that race as he would lead these in a heartbeat if Kerryn Manning lets him go at the start as expected. From there he can attempt an all-the-way win or hand up to an appropriate horse. If he leads then SUNROSE DON (1) and DUNGEON QUEEN (8) should enjoy soft peg-line trips with JILLIBY ABLETT (9) racing tough in the concluding stages. If he hands up a similar scenario should occur with one unknown runner working its way to the lead.

The two Lance Justice-trained runners hold the key here as LADY PENROSE (2) may work her way to the lead with MISS MOONLITE (1) on her back or ALCHEMY (4) may fire his way to the front early on and have options at his disposal once he does. Either way MISS MOONLITE (1) should get a soft inside run with CUT FOR AN ACE (5), JACK IN FLIGHT (7) and VERANJEE (9) all likely to race tough at some stage of the race. WARTIME SWEETHEART (10) appeals as the most dangerous closer late.

There’s no doubt that UBRINGTHEDRINKS (1) has the speed to lead these for as long as he chooses from the polemarking draw but Daryl Douglas may choose to hand up if the pressure is too great. Either way ARBER (8) should receive a soft peg-line run with WASMEPOCKETS (6) and MISTER SHEEDY (7) firing across from their wide front-line draws. Impressive last start winner THIRSTY MACH (9) has a nice trailing draw and will appreciate any mid-race pressure while IM BARNEY RUBBLE (2) looms as the horse most likely to cross UBRINGTHDRINKS (1) if he hands up in transit.

AMERICAN MUSCLE (2) is a blistering beginner who should cross BELLAS DELIGHT (1) soon after the start. There is very little obvious mid-race pressure engaged so expect AMERICAN MUSCLE (2), BELLAS DELIGHT (1) and SAVESOMTIMETODREAM (8) to benefit from ideal peg-line trips with CHARLIE MACHSHEEN (7) the most likely candidate to find the breeze and all the rest needing 
plenty of luck and an inspired drive to get them into the race.

Plenty of speed off the front line here with CHEVEYO (1) and CHANELS CHARM (4) both particularly quick off the mobile arm. OURBELLABRO (2) will be looking to relieve whoever finds the front of that position but if it is CHEVEYO (1) as expected then Lisa Miles may have to sit parked throughout. Expect a number of mid-race moves here with ELIMINATOR (6), WHATA AVENUE (9) and INKY CULLEN (10) all suited to front-of-the-field racing while G K GALLEON (12) and MADAM POM POM (13) appeal as the most dangerous closers late.

DISTANT MEMORY (5) and TALULAH BAY (6) are both very quick beginners who should cross the face of the field together early on. Expect the former horse to retain the inside advantage with either TUSCAN BREEZE (4) or SHES A RUNA (3) working their way to the chair and FON DESIGN (7) likely to come with one run at her rivals late.

Yet another race with good early speed engaged with LOOK HERE BLOKE (2), SULTRY LADY (3) and even the enigmatic SPINSTER CLARE (7) all fighting out the early lead if they stay in gait off the arm. There is no dead-set enforcer here so SONOFPACO (5) may find himself in that role by proxy while SUNDONS PROMISE (10) and MISTER ELWOOD (12) are the main ones to watch motoring home wide out on the track.

Amazingly, we have yet another race here with good early toe, but expect CALEDONIAN ATTACK (1) to resist the early challenges from FROSTY STAR (4) and co with PASSIONATE EMBRACE (3) very likely to find the breeze in transit. If that most likely scenario plays out then favourite PRESSPLAY (8) should lob behind the leader but if CALEDONAIN ATTACK (1) is crossed then she may need to circle them to win.

MACHABIBA (1) isn’t the quickest beginner in the business but she should muster well enough to hold the top here with BRAEVIEW WARRIOR (8) on her back. Expect FUTURE OPERATOR (6) to roll forward in search of a handy position with PURPLE VILLAGE (3) poised somewhere off the speed and RUBYS BAD BOY (7) also coming with one run at the leaders late.

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