Good Form Preview - Wednesday night @ Ballarat

The Game Plans for Ballarat

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

This is by far the better of today’s two meetings from a betting perspective but with the day’s two Best Bets, Must Be Nice (Race 5 no. 5) & Rebel Rustler (Race 7 no. 11) both tied up in the Quad I think we’ll let that bet take care of the profits from their successes rather than an all-up and as a result there’s only a couple of races we really want to target.

The Money Races

Race 4
There are a few different things that may happen in the run here but I fully expect that either Magical Telf (4) or It Is Billy (1) will win and Macca Kelly (5) and Cyrus (7) are the only other horses who can even fill a hole. With that in mind, I’ve outline four Trifectas which should help us turn a profit.

1,4/ 1,4,5/ 1,4,5. $60 gets 1500%

1,4/ 1,4,5/ 7. $24 gets 600%
5/ 1,4/ 1,4. $12 gets 600%
5/ 1,4/ 7. $4 gets 200%

Race 5

Here are the facts; Foldem (3) should lead this lot within 50m of the start and Must Be Nice (5) should park up outside of him soon thereafter. If Foldem (3) holds the lead and goes for an unlikely all-the-way win our Trifectas below have some chance of lobbing. If Foldem (3) hands up to Must Be Nice (5) we’ll almost certainly make a tidy earn. I’m willing to take the punt on the second scenario knowing we’re not cast if the first one happens to eventuate. See below for the plan.

5/ 3/ 2,10,11. $45 gets 1500%

5/ 3/ 1,2,6. $22.50 gets 750%
5/ 2,10,11/ 3. $22.50 gets 750%
5/ 1,2,6/ 3. $10 gets 333.33%

Quaddies (x3)

1,4,5/ 5/ 7/ 11. $45 gets 1500%

1,4,5/ 5/ 6/ 11. $30 gets 1000%
1,4,5/ 5/ 5,8,9/ 11. $25 gets 277.78%

THE GAME PLAN for Ballarat – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

BEST BET

Must Be Nice (Race 5 no. 5) $1.80

This guy was most impressive winning here first up from a spell where he worked his way to the lead and ripped home in 27.7 to win comfortably.  He will be improved by that run and although he is likely to have to park outside of Foldem tonight he is a horse on the way up and should be a shade too strong.  I’m having $200 straight out on him.

THE MONEY RACES

Just the 7 races tonight and there isn’t a great deal of value on offer but I think we can still turn a profit by having a crack at Races 4 and 5 via some trifectas.  The dividends won’t be huge but hopefully things go to plan and we have them enough times to make it all worthwhile.  Below is how I’m playing for $200, which along with my $100 Quaddie and the above Best Bet will take my total outlay for the night to $500.

Race 4

4,5/ 4,5/ 1.  $50 gets you 2500%

4,5/ 1/ 4,5.  $30 gets you 1500%

1/ 4,5/ 4,5.  $20 gets you 1000%

Race 5

5/ 3/ 1,2,4,10,11.  $30 gets you 600%

5/ 1,2,4,10,11/ 3.  $30 gets you 600%

5/ 1,2,4,10,11/ 1,2,4,10,11.  $40 gets you 200%

QUADDIES X 2 $100 Total Spend

4,5/ 5/ 1,5,6,7,8,9/ 11.  $82 gets you 683.33%

1/ 5/ 1,5,6,7,8,9/ 11.  $18 gets you 300%

BLACK BOOKER - Terang Last Night

My Mickey Blue Eyes
This guy is part of the visiting Juanita McKenzie team and he produced a slashing run last night when third to Keayang Rustler where he charged home out wide on the course at the end of a 57.4 final half.  He is engaged to race at Melton this Friday night and he has struck a very winnable affair so be sure to follow up on him there.