Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

Adam Hamilton's Tabcorp Park Preview

THE GAME PLANS for Melton 

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Tonight’s meeting is yet another tricky one at headquarters and I can’t really find a race where I want to play some exotics so instead I’ve come up with some Value Bets, a Quaddie and a decent crack at the Jackpot Big6, which I think will pay anything with the right results.  Here’s hoping!

$25,000 JACKPOT BIG6

1,3,10,11/ 1,5,6/ 1,2,4,5,7,8,10/ 1,5,6,10/ 1,2,4,6,8,13/ 3,7,9. 

$200 gets you 3.3%

VALUE BETS

It Is Billy (Race 1 no. 9)  $6   ($15 win x $35 place)

This bloke is almost guaranteed to end up three-back the pegs and he will need a bit of luck in the straight but likely leader Ourbellabro is a free-runner so I think the field may string out over the final 400m which will enable him to wind up at the right time.

 

Rapt In A Rainbow (Race 2 no. 5)  $3.50  ($15 win x $35 place)

This mare was having her first run for Laura Crossland at Maryborough in a heat of tonight’s final at Maryborough 9 days ago and was most impressive winning from the breeze by a big space and I don’t see why she can’t repeat the dose here.

Pinevale Willpower (Race 6 no. 5)  $4  ($15 win x $35 place)

There is no doubt Macca Kelly is the testing material in this race but the back row draw won’t help him and I’m willing to take a punt on this fellow running a big race first up from a break after trialling stylishly at Shepparton recently.

Zanardi (Race 7 no. 8)  $10  ($15 win x $35 place)

Now that the tactic change has come through for Alchemy, who will be holding the lead from the pole, I think this bloke has a great each way chance as he shoud do enough to hold up behind the leader and will get his chance via the passing lane in the stretch.

Onedin Hustler (Race 10 no. 2)  $12  ($15 win x $35 place)

This isn’t a strong race and at the odds I think this bloke is worthy of a gamble as he is a big chance of spearing to the lead from the ideal draw and will give cheek over the 1720m.

Quaddie

1,5,6/ 1,2,4,5,7,8,10/ 1,5,6,10/ 1,2,4,6,8,13.  $100 gets you 19.84%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Tonight’s Tabcorp Park card is riddled with wide open races where speed, tactics and good old fashioned luck will play a huge role in who gets the prize. Having said that I think there are three horses who really should be winning, a fourth who will make or break our night and four big roughies that look good chances of finishing on the podium at very big odds. Throw in one Money Race and a few Quads and we’ll certainly be well invested in another 12-race card!

Best Bets/All-Up/Formula 2

My plan is to have a Formula 2 – where two of these have to win for $60 or 2000% - and also a $40 all-up, which should yield around $320 if all three get up.

Im Stately (Race 3 no. 7) $2.40 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

I have been keen on this bloke taking out tonight’s Tatlow Final since before the heat phase of the series and he did nothing to dull my enthusiasm when arrogantly beating up on his rivals 9 days ago. The second line draw is of little or no concern to him and importantly, his main rival, Miracle (10) has drawn back there w/ him so as long as he stays in gait I’m confident he’ll be getting the prize.

Johnny Quid (Race 4 no. 5) $2.80

The only question mark w/ this guy is that he did not go as well as he has been last start at Ballarat but if you forgive him that run he’s got this race on toast. The key factors for him are that he has the gate speed and intimidation factor to work his way to the front and if he finds the lead it would be a huge shock to see him get rolled. You should know your fate pretty early but I’m keen bullish he’ll get the job done.

Fifth And Broadway (Race 11 no. 5) $1.20

This is the no-brainer of the night. A pretty smart 4YO mare with much better races in her future, she meets a moderate bunch of C1’s tonight and whether she rolls to the top as expected or sits parked outside Chasing Chelsea (1) it would take a below par performance for her to get beaten.

Best Value

Amajorjo (Race 5 no. 9) $17 ($50 Each Way)

If you’re going to have one wager all night, I suggest you have a genuine crack at this bloke on an Each Way basis at odds. The following dot-points will outline just why.

* Wind the clock back to mid-March and he ran sub-1:53 miles two weeks running.

* He thrives over the short course, having won 4 from 8 & placed in another 3 runs.

* Before his first-up ‘failure’ he won a Hamilton trial by 50m.

* His first-up ‘failure’ was not one at all. He was three-wide to the breeze in blistering early numbers and only dropped out late.

*That first-up run was over the unsuitable 2240m trip and punters were so confident he started $1.90.

*There is pace off the front line tonight and he will get conditions to suit.

Fairly compelling case? That’s why I’m unloading on him Each Way at what may be a double-figure price tonight and I genuinely expect him to win.

Best Roughie/Place Bets

Death Defying (Race 2 no. 7) $31 ($5 by $15)

I’ve found two roughies in the Glenferrie Farm Sweetheart Trot Final and there are some obvious reasons why. They are that my top tip Sundons Promise (13) should win but she is a mercurial type who is only a 50/50 chance of staying in gait throughout, while the other ‘big guns’ of the series – Maidstone Miss (1) & Purplepeopleater (12) – were horribly disappointing in their heats & would have to improve markedly to figure in the finish. This girl has drawn poorly again but she was not disgraced in her heat & is certainly worth a place bet at least at the monster odds.

Monica My Dear (Race 2 no. 9) $21 ($5 by $15)

I’ve already outlined above why I like a couple at odd sin this race and this girl gets a guernsey due to her wonderfully consistent recent record, handy trailing draw and top heat run behind Sundons Promise (13) so you can also back her for a place and even have something small for her to win.

Edge Hill (Race 3 no. 12) $31/$6 ($20 PLACE) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

I don’t really give this girl much of a winning hope but she is bordering on veteran status for a 2YO trotter and arrives here with all the right formlines, having beaten Im Stately (11) on debut and tested Miracle (10) four starts back at Maryborough. Not much went right in her heat of this series and at $6 a place you’d be silly not to have a little something on.

Shandon Village (Race 6 no. 4) $21 ($5 by $15)

I do have a soft spot for this bloke but he’s also racing in career best form and in an even sort of race he’s certainly worth a 1x3 wager, particularly given the fact he should lob a handy role in transit from the handy front line draw.

Steal A Sixpence (Race 8 no. 5) $41/$6.16 ($20 PLACE) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

A bit like Edge Hill in the Tatlow final, this bloke has been ignored by bookmakers purely because they’ve been consumed by the high profile, big name runners. See below for a little critique & tell me why he should be $41/$6.16

* Fours starts back he lost to Our Dreamlover (6) by 1.6m off level marks racing under unsuitable standing-start conditions. Our Dreamlover (6) is currently $12 w/ TAB.

* Three starts back he convincingly defeated subsequent SA Trotters Derby winner, Glenferrie Dreamer (10) @ Melton. Glenferrie Dreamer (10) is currently $13 w/ TAB.

* Last start he convincingly defeated subsequent NSW Trotters Derby placegetter, Vincennes and tonight he draws to lead or sit handy in the run.

I’m not sure he can win but $6.16 the drum is good enough for me.

The Money Race – Race 11

Pretty simple philosophy here that Fifth And Broadway (5) will be too good & Chasing Chelsea (1) should almost certainly run a drum if she hands up as expected.

5/ 1/ 3,6,8. $60 gets 2000%

5/ 3,6/ 1. $20 gets 1000%

5/ 3,6,/ 3,6,8. $20 gets 500%

Quaddies (x2)

5,6/ 9/ 1,3,4,5,6,7,10/ 1,2,4,8,10,13. $42 gets 50%

5,6/ 1,2,4,5,8,10/ 1,3,4,5,6,7,10/ 1,2,4,8,10,13. $58 gets 11.51%

No Jackpot BIG6 tonight. You’re on your own there!!

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – David Miles

Best Chance

Roy Hobbs (Race 8 no.7) $4.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“Didn’t handle the track one step last week, didn’t trot well at all but he was still travelling okay when he broke.

“We just need him to come home and trot better and trot sounder than he did last week and he should be in the firing line.

“The Boss Man doesn’t like to hand-up and Steal A Sixpence has gate speed so it will be quite strong early.

“We know we are going to be in front of Habibti this week but she is a superstar and one out of the box; she’s probably the best trotting filly we’ve seen in many years.

Others

Ourbellabro (Race 1 no.2) $10

“She was okay, I thought she was probably entitled to win but we’ve sort of freshened her up; the other horse just seemed to outsprint her, she was a bit dour, so hopefully that will help.

“If she can find the front and not do as much work as she had to last time she will probably be hard to beat and the one on our back (Blue Seelster) is the one that will be coming up the sprint lane.

Dungeon Queen (Race 4 no.2) $8

“It was probably one of her only bad runs for us so we’ve tried a few little things at home, changing her work up a bit.

The Dungeon Queen from four weeks ago would nearly be leading and winning but she was very disappointing last week. We’ve done some tests and everything seems okay, so if she puts her best foot forward she will be right there.

“I don’t know how much gate speed the one has but the three has a heap. In saying that, I don’t think anything will cross her so we’ll be going forward and looking for the front.

Pocket Boy (Race 5 no.6) $26

“He was super again last week after being held up, he ran home really strong and if they go hard underneath him and he finds a pot he’ll be running on.

Sparks Ignite (Race 9 no.5) $10

“She’s still going good and she’s down in class this time, back from the Free For All to the TM0-TM1. It’s a tricky little race but at the class she is always super-competitive.

American Para (Race 11 no.6) $10

“She didn’t win by a lot but I don’t think she ever will. She was very good at Yarra Valley at her first start for us and she was strong again last time.

“The barrier draw makes it hard again but she seems to be holding her form and this is probably her test to see if she is going to make a nice horse.

Sectional Superstar

Smudge Bromac (Race 7 no. 10)$15 TAB Fixed Odds –  Click here to bet on this horse now

This fella was in good enough form to have a crack at the Group 2 Renshaw Cup back in April and his first run since a small freshen was brilliant last week.

He let go with a powerful sprint running the second fastest last 400 of the race in 28.34.

There won’t be any favours from the second row barrier again but if he can finish as quickly as he did last week then he will be hard to hold out late.

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Veranjee: 27.24secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Classic Bliss: 56.07secs
Fastest Last Mile – Real Magic: 1:55.39

Star Trialler

Pinevale Willpower (Race 6 no. 5) $4

Talented 5YO who hasn’t started since finishing down the track in the 4YO Vicbred Final behind Caribbean Blaster back in August last year but he has been tuned up for this with two recent trials at Shepparton, the latest an impressive victory in 1:58.9 where he slipped home in 55.7.  He has some pace to his inside tonight but he leaves the mobile well and if he happened to get the lead or receive a decent sit just off the pace then he is sure to take beating first up.

Speed Maps

Race 1

There is plenty of speed drawn off the front line here but given her normal racing pattern OURBELLABRO (2) should bully her way to the front here with BLUE SEELSTER (1) on her back & IT IS BILLY (9) in an awkward spot from the draw if Anne-Maree Conroy can’t get him off the pegs. MAGICAL TELF (11) can either lead the three-wide line home or wait for a suitable cart into the race.

Race 2

MAIDSTONE MISS (1) has early speed and could probably hold the lead if Chris Alford so desired while RAPT IN A RAINBOW (5) & DEATH DEFYING (7) look most likely to occupy the chair, at least early. PURPLEPEOPLEATER (12) can either make a mid-race move or come with one run late while MONICA MY DEAR (9) & SUNDONS PROMISE (13) look the most dangerous late closers from the rear.

Race 3

ILLAWONG MOONSHINE (1), ASDENRO (3) & TWELVE OR A DOZEN (7) have all displayed early toe in the past and one of the three should lead. If ASDENRO (3) finds the top as expected then ILLWONG MOONSHINE (1) should get a soft peg-line run with MIRACLE (10) and IM STATELY (11) both likely to make mid-race moves and EDGE HILL (12) best suited if the speed is on throughout.

Race 4

ILLAWONG KATH (1) is a terrific beginner and can probably hold these for as long as she likes but expect her to take a trail on either JOHNNY QUID (5) who musters speed early and likes to press forward in his races or ASTRONAUT (6) who can blast the arm on his day and may have too much early toe. If JOHNNY QUID (5) works to the top as expected then ILLAWONG KATH (1) will enjoy a soft trip in transit while SHNAPPY (7), NARRA OPERATIVE (9) & LOOSE WIRE (10) will all be obliged to race tough at some stage.

Race 5

There is a fair bit of early speed off the front line here with REPELEM (1), DONEGAL DELIGHT (2), SUMMER ACE (4) & EXCITEUSINTHECITY (5) likely to fight out the early lead. REPELEM (1) may hold the key as she can either lead or – more likely – hand up in transit. Either way, LOVABLE LARRIKIN (8) will get the run he loves as a genuine sit-sprinter while AMAJORJO (9) will be let rip with a long, searching run at some stage and THIRSTY MACH (10) will need a cart into the race for success.

Race 6

PINEVALE WILLPOWER (5) is the quickest beginner drawn off the front line and he should find the front if Chris Alford put his foot to the floor early. It may not be easy though with WHAT AVENUE (1), ILLAWONG GERALDINE (3) & SHANDON VILLAGE (6) all likely to want the pegs first. KEAYANG RUSTLER (6) is a tough type who will probably go in search of the chair at some point while MACCA KELLY (10) has options but is likely to come with one-searching run over the final 800m.

Race 7

ALCHEMY (1) probably has the speed to lead these for as long as he likes but he is equally likely to hold the top or take a trail in transit and if he were to hand up then OUR BLACKBIRD (2) would be favoured for that role. Either way ZANARDI (8) will get a cheap run along the pegs with JACK IN FLIGHT (13) almost certain to progress forward right from the start to ensure the race is a truly run affair.

Race 8

This is another race with plenty of front line speed as THE BOSS MAN (3), STEAL A SIXPENCE (5) and ROY HOBBS (7) can all begin super quickly off the mobile arm. Expect superstar Kiwi filly HABIBTI (9) to make her move as soon as the dust settles with OUR DREAMLOVER (6) & GLENFERRIE DREAMER (10) needing all the breaks and plenty of speed to figure from their awkward alleys.

Race 9

MISTER GUNSEN (3) flies the mobile arm and would be favoured find the front even with plenty of speed draw around him here tonight. If he does find the top there’s a great chance he’ll look for a trail at this level behind either EARL HARBOUR (2) or MISTER INDEPENDENT (4) although SPARKS IGNITE (5) and BACCKAS COBBER (7) may also look for the lead role. Whatever happens, ALDEBARAN TURNPIKE (1) & KYVALLEY BLUR (8) should enjoy soft peg-line trips with STONED I AM (6) out and running at some stage of the race.

Race 10

ONEDIN HUSTLER (2) is the quickest pacer off the front line and it will be Lance Justices’ decision whether he wants to lead or take a trail. Expect him to hold up over the short trip here with WASHMEPOCKETS (3) & LUV THA ACES LOMBO (5) pouring the pressure on. TAKEITEASYONME (1) & IN MONACO (8) should follow inside runs with DJIBOUTI (6) the most dangerous late closer from the back.

Race 11

CHASING CHELSEA (1) is a great beginner, particularly from inside draws, so she should hold the top early before FIFTH AND BROADWAY (5) cruises up alongside her soon after the start. Expect FIFTH AND BROADWAY (5) to then find the front with AMERICAN PARA (6) parked and PRECIOUS DRAGON (3) handy. CHESHIRE CAT (8) should; get a soft trip up along the pegs.

Race 12

MY LISHI (1) & CALEDONIAN ATTACK (4) should fight out the early lead here, with KOORI ART (5) cruising up to race handy in the run. Not a lot should transpire after that although Greg Sugars will have a decision to make as he can either follow the pegs early and look for gaps late or drop out and put EARTH ANGEL (8) into the fray soon after the start.