Friday, May 10, 2013

Good Form Preview - 12 of the Best at Melton

THE GAME PLANS for Melton 

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)


Race 2
Illawong Joyful ticks all the boxes here as she should scoot straight to the lead, which is where she likes it and with Greg Sugars sure to rate her perfectly at the head of affairs it is hard to see her being rolled.  Blue Seelster and Flaxton Filly are clearly the next best horses in the race and I’d be very surprised if one of them didn’t run second so I’m going to take the below exacta.  The dividend won’t be huge but we should see a nice profit nonetheless.

3/ 5,7.  $100 gets you 5000%

Race 5
There is no doubt that Jamies Boy is the testing material here and whether he works to the lead or sits in the breeze I doubt very much he will miss the top two.  Composed and Cullen Bromac will be in the firing line throughout, which is a big advantage over the sprint trip and one of that pair will either run second to Jamies Boy or knock him off so I’m going to take the below exactas.

4/ 1,2.  $70 gets you 3500%
1,2/ 4.  $30 gets you 1500%


Jasmine Sheffield (Race 3 no. 4) $3.70  $30 win x $70 place
She has had the three runs back from a break without having a great deal of luck but this looks a race she should be mighty hard to beat in as she is a big chance of working to the lead and will take plenty of catching should that scenario unfold.  At her best she would be $1.50 in a race of this nature and I’m going to have a decent crack at her each way.

1,4,8/ 2,3,4,5,6,7,10/ 1,2,4/ 10/ 1,2,6,7,11,13/ 1,2,4,6.  $100 gets you 6.61%

2,3,4,5,6,7,10/ 1,2,4/ 10/ 1,2,6,7,11,13.  $100 gets you 79.36%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Last Friday night was unbelievably successful & while tonight’s programme is very different indeed, I’m still super confident that we can turn a healthy profit. Much of our night will rely upon Jamies Boy & Jaccka Clive both winning but I think they will & I’m playing accordingly.

Best Bets/All-Up ($100)
These three will all start short so take them in all all up and you should get around $350 back from a $100 investment.

Illawong Joyful (Race 2 no. 3) $1.40
This girl is a dynamite leader who will find the front within 25m of the start and over her preferred 1720m trip it will take a massive performance to see her get run down.

Jamies Boy (Race 5 no. 4) $1.90
He is a Sunraysia visitor who would probably be racing in FFA’s now if he was trained further south. This is a handy field but he has the class edge and should bully his rivals into submission.

Jaccka Clive (Race 6 no. 10) $1.30
My love affair with this horse is well known but he’s repaid the faith 1000 times over and while I have a healthy respect for this field, he really should be too big and too strong one again tonight.

Best Value
Johnny Quid (Race 4 no. 10) $7 ($50 Each Way)
If you’re only having one bet all night and you want a price then smash this bloke Each Way. The philosophy here is that with Born Again Sassy (3), Night Affair (5), Astronaut (6) and Jilliby Ablett (7) all drawn the front line, the speed should be brutal after the start and if B Gath can smoke the pipe early and then work around the field on the back of a 1:57, 56.8 win at Maryborough last time out they will not hold him out in the lane.

Best Roughies
Pete Of Pan (Race 1 no. 8) $41 ($25 Place)
Don’t break the bank here, but given this bloke looks a great chance of lobbing the leaders back in transit and did run Lady Penrose to a short margin last time he got that sort of trip then something a place at massive odds ($5+) is probably in order tonight.

Teo Enteo (Race 4 no. 8) $26 ($25 Place)
Once again, I advise some caution here as the draw could not be worse, but as mentioned above, I see plenty of early speed here and this guy is just too talented to be paying $26. Have something the place if he’s paying $4+.

The Money Races
Race 1
1,12/ 1,11,12/ 1,2,4,5,8,9,11,12. $72 gets 300%
1,12/ 5,8/ 1,2,4,5,8,9,11,12. $28 gets 116.67%

Race 2
3/5,7/ 5,7,8,9,10. $66 gets 825%
3/ 8,10/ 5,7,8,9, 10. $24 gets 300%
7/ 3/ 5,8,9,10. $10 gets 250%

Race 6
10/ 7/ 9. $30 gets 3000%
10/ 7/ 1,5,6,8. $40 gets 1000%
10/ 9/ 7. $10 gets 1000%
10/ 1,5,6,8/ 7. $20 gets 500%

Quaddies (x4)
7,10/ 4/ 10/ 6,7. $21 gets 525%
7,10/ 4/ 10/ 1,2,3,5,11,13. $30 gets 250%
1,2,3,4,5,6,8/ 4/ 10/ 6,7. $28 gets 200%
1,2,3,4,5,6,8/ 4/ 10/ 1,2,3,5,11,13. $21 gets 50%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Ross Sugars
Best Chance
Illawong Joyful (Race 2 no.3) $1.40 –
Click here to bet on this horse now
 “She seems to be performing quite consistently now and I do like her in front, I think she’s a better horse there. Over the short trip she should take plenty of beating tonight.

“The 2200 has found her out a couple of times but she has a good time against her name over the sprint at Ballarat so that should hold her in good stead.”

La Machane (Race 7 no.7) $5
“It’s a very good four-year-old mares race, some very nice horses which will win more races down the track.  The barrier draw has made it interesting, she’s shown recently she doesn’t like to do much work and prefers to finish off.

“I dare if she can settle into the one out line without going too far back that would be really good but I have a feeling she is going to end up near the tail of the field. She’s going really well but to circle the field and win is going to be pretty tough.”
Narre Boy (Race 9 no.7) $10 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“We were a little concerned at Cranbourne that we had a quick beginner inside us but we got to the front there. It’s similar tonight with one or two inside him that begin okay but if he can cross going into the first turn I think he is a great each way chance.

“Like Illawong Joyful I really like him over the shorter journeys, I know he won over longer first up but he is better suited in sprint races.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Louvre: 55.68secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Louvre: 27.87secs
Fastest Last Mile – Ubringthedrinks: 1:55.07

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