THE GAME PLAN for Ballarat – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
VALUE BETS
Besides Glenferrie College and Keayang Starzzz, who both should win with a leg in the air but will be at unbackable odds, there is plenty of value on offer tonight and I’m hoping to find it in the shape of three each way bets. I’m going to back the following horses for the reasons outlined and if we can get one or two of them home I think we’ll finish in front for the night. I’m going to outlay $300, which along with my $100 Quaddie will take my total spend for the night to $400.
Motor Smoker (Race 4 no. 4) $3.70 $30 win x $70 place
This guy took out the Shakamaker Classic at Melton two back via the passing lane and went on with the job at Bendigo last start where he came from well back to get the cash in a race not run to suit. He has the gate speed to find a nice spot off the pace and with the right luck in the straight I think he can go very close.
Lively Princess (Race 5 no. 2) $4 $30 win x $70 place
Talented sit-sprint mare who was outclassed by La Machane at Melton last start in the Vicbred Platinum Final, but she did do her share of work early there, which isn’t her go. She will find tonight’s race much more suitable and with a reasonable run off the pace expected tonight I think she will take plenty of holding out at the business end.
The Unionist (Race 7 no. 5) $3.50 $30 win x $70 place
Wasn’t disgraced here last start when fifth to G K Galleon in a heat of the E K Bray Country Clubs Cup from a poor draw and he is sure to relish the return to the front line tonight as he is a good beginner as a rule and is a chance of finding the lead, or at worst he should end up just off the pace ready to pounce. In a wide race he looks worthy of a gamble.
QUADDIE
1,3,4,6,7/ 1,2,3,9/ 2,3,6,10/ 3,5,6,7,8,9. $100 gets you 20.83%
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