Friday, May 17, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday night @ HQ


Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Washmepockets (Race 6 no. 6) $3
I’ll admit, I have a serious ‘man-crush’ on this bloke because he’s been so good to me in the past and I think he has a terrific chance tonight, here’s why; he was three-deep the trip here last start and was only beaten 10m by I’m Barney Rubble in 1:54.7, he should get to the spot outside the leader tonight without too much hassle and from there I’d be very surprised if he didn’t go very close.  I’m having $50 straight out on him, but if we are lucky enough to get each way odds have a decent go the place too.

Bellas Delight (Race 5 no. 12) $2.70
Besides Broadways Best, who is first up from a break, this mare has these covered class-wise and the way I read the race is Greg Sugars will wait for the dust to settle up front, make an early move on her to face the breeze and once there I think she will be able to control the race and prove a shade too strong.  She’s getting $50 of mine on the nose.

Race 4
We will know our fate after about 50m here but the way I read this race, as is the case with most form students, is Ima Grumpy Jasper gets the lead off Tyler Bromac, who trails, and Our Crime Of Passion sits three-back the pegs.  If all goes to script they really should fill the first three spots home and I’m going to launch an all-out assault on the race in the hope that it all works out that way.  Below is how I’m playing for $200 total spend.

Exacta:  Boxed 1,2,8.  $60 gets you 1000%
Trifecta:  Boxed 1,2,8.  $40 gets you 666.66%
First Four:  1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 9.  $19 gets you 316.66%
*My thinking here is no. 9 Fiery Count will be four-back the pegs and is a big chance of running fourth.
First Four:  1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ Field.  $81 gets you 150%

Race 6
As mentioned earlier I’m pretty keen on Washmepockets to get the cash and I think this may be the best value race of the night to play in.  I’m going to take some Trifectas around Washmepockets and hope I can snare some of that value.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

6/ 4,5,10,11,12/ 1,2,4,5,7,9,10,11,12.  $40 gets you 100%
4,5,10,11,12/ 6/ 1,2,4,5,7,9,10,11,12.  $40 gets you 100%
4,5,10,11,12/ 4,5,10,11,12/ 6.  $20 gets you 100%   

QUADDIES X 5 $100 Total Spend
1,2,8/ 12/ 6/ 15.  $15 gets you 500%
1,2,8/ 12/ 6/ 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,12,13,14,15.  $25 gets you 64.1%
1,2,8/ 12/ 4,5,10,11,12/ 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,12,13,14,15.  $25 gets you 12.82%
1,2,8/ 1,4,13/ 6/ 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,12,13,14,15.  $15 gets you 12.82%
1,2,8/ 1,4,13/ 4,5,10,11,12/ 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,12,13,14,15.  $20 gets you 3.41%

BLACK BOOKER - Racing Tonight

My Mickey Blue Eyes (Race 8 no. 2) $3
This guy is part of the visiting Tassie team of Juanita McKenzie and he put the writing on the wall for this with a slashing third to Keayang Rustler last Tuesday night.  He draws nicely, meets a moderate bunch and is sure to be mighty hard to beat.

BLACK BOOKER - Bendigo Last Night

Sat three-back the pegs last night, which is not his ideal racing position, and once he got clear in the straight he really rocketed home into third spot behind Barkers Hall.  Another 20m he wins there and he looks a great chance at Horsham on Monday from the pole draw so be sure to follow up on him.

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
The main focus of tonight’s business will be on the two Money Races outlined below but there is also a Best Bet which coincides w/ one of those Money Races along w/ a few genuine roughies we can back Each way or just for a Place and two Jackpot Quads that I’m confident will yield a result.

Best Bet
Business In Motion (Race 3 no. 2) $2.10 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
Juvenile racing is as much about class as racing pattern but this guy wins on both fronts. He is probably as talented as any horse in the race along with The Fat Man (6) and he will be in front within 50m of the start so back him at black figures and double your dough.

Best Roughies
Brylin Crescent (Race 2 no. 7) $15
This mare hasn’t been at her best recently but it wasn’t so long ago that she would have started a $2 favourite in this race so it’s hard to ignore if she comes up close to the $15 quote in today’s Herald Sun.

Real Bonus (Race 5 no. 6) $12
She grows a leg when able to find the front and I think with her natural gate speed she’s a better than 50% chance of getting there. If not, he’ll lob somewhere handy and still be hard to hold out of the placings.

Pocket Boy (Race 7 no. 6) $34
At his best, this guy is a Country Cup winner who finished third behind Auckland Reactor in the 2012 Pure steel and right now it feels like he’s back in that sort of form. Add to the mix that he’s a brilliant beginner from the strands and he’ll give you a run for your money at massive Each way odds.

The Money Races
Race 3
Both of today’s Money Races are all about peg-domination. In this Tatlow Final, Business In Motion (2) will lead with Tooram Lad (1) on his back and Hectorjayjay (8) three back the pegs. Class performer The Fat Man (6) looks the only one who can stop them fighting out the finish so play the four Trifectas below and you should get a result.

2/ 1/ 6,8. $55 gets 2750%
2/ 6,8/ 1. $20 gets 1000%
2/ 6,8/ 6,8. $10 gets 500%
2/ 1/ 4,5,12. $15 gets 500%

Race 4
This is another race where peg-domination should reign supreme with Ima Grumpy Jasper (2) leading, my top tip Tyler Bromac (5) on his back and Our Crime Of Passion (8) three back the pegs. There are a couple of others who can run third but play pretty skinny and you should know your fate soon after the start.

1/ 2,8/ 2,8. $41 gets 2050%
2/ 1,8/ 1,8. $25 gets 1250%
8/ 1,2/ 1,2. $10 gets 500%
1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 7,11. $24 gets 200%

Quaddies (x2)
1,2,8/ 6,12,13/ 6,11,12/ 7,8,15. $54 gets 66.67%
1,2,8/ 6,12,13/ 6,11,12/ 6,11,12,13. $46 gets 42.6%


Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – David Miles

Best Chance
Roy Hobbs (Race 9 no.6) $1.10 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He trialled really well on Monday night he was just settled and relaxed. He was probably a bit keen in the Prince Of Speed but he is better now.

“No disrespect to the others but it looks a pretty winnable race if he trots all the way.”

Ourbellabro (Race 1 no.6) $3
“She just over-raced in a really strong lead time last week. Shorter trip tonight should suit and she should be able to go forward and hopefully find the front.

“It’s a lot weaker race than last time so she will be driven strongly and should go pretty close.”
Nats Survival (Race 1 no.7) $15
“She went super last time. She ran good time and did it very easy but the barrier has probably put paid to her winning chances.

“If she went as well as she did at Kilmore and didn’t run in the first four then I would be very surprised. She is a half-sister to Pacific Charm who just kept getting better as she got older and this girl is doing the same.”
Dungeon Queen (Race 4 no.12) $21
“She draws eight and ends up four back the fence, then last week she was all but in behind the leader and if she landed there she wins. She ran a good sixth but again she has a bad barrier.

“The mare is flying so if she gets a good run through and they run it to suit her she will go very close.”
Pocket Boy (Race 7 no.6) $34 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“The poor old bugger has been going quite well without luck. His last two have been super.
"A lot will depend on the start, he is very good in front but there is a couple of good beginners inside him. I’m not sure if he can cross Arber from the stand but if he does he is a great each-way chance.”
Ohoka Mach (Race 8 no.4) $5
“He’s down in class on last week where he towed me up the straight, he felt super.
“He should get a nice run so he would have to be an each way chance.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Art Shadow : 55.22secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Our Blackbird: 27.44secs
Fastest Last Mile – Itsnewstome: 1:55.50

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