Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ Melton

THE GAME PLANS for Melton

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

$25,000 JACKPOT BIG6

I love a Big6 Jackpot at Melton on a Friday night because there is always plenty of value on offer and with a sizeable pool expected tonight I’m going to have a good crack at it. I’m going to spend $200 on the below combinations and hope for a windfall result.

3/ 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10/ 7/ 1,2,3,5/ 1,2,4,8,10,13,15/ 2,6,10.

$100 gets you 14.88%

1,4,6,9,10,11/ 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10/ 7/ 1,2,4,8,10,13,15/ 2,6,10.

$100 gets you 2.48%

BEST BET

Teo Enteo (Race 9 no. 1) $3 - $100 win

This bloke has had no luck with the barrier draws of late and he has been running nice races all things considered but tonight he finally comes up with a decent gate. He races best when driven sit-sprint and tonight he looks like gaining the perfect trail behind likely leader Barkers Hall and I think he has a great chance of running by them via the passing lane in the stretch.

THE MONEY RACES

Race 8
Distant Memory, Shes A Runa and My Bella Starr look to have the wood on their rivals here with strong place claims going to Tuscan Breeze, Tallulah Bay, Colleens Medley and Ourgirlbillielee so I’m going to use them as a base for some First Fours. Below is how I’m spending $100.

2,6,10/ 2,6,10/ 2,6,10/ 7,8,9,13. $52 gets you 216.66%

2,6,10/ 2,6,10/ 7,8,9,13/ 2,6,10. $36 gets you 150%
2,6,10/ 7,8,9,13/ 2,6,10/ 2,6,10. $12 gets you 50%

Race 10

Heats of this final were conducted here last Sunday night with Our Great Spirit and Flyin Indi Air looking much better than their rivals so I’m going to take some Trifectas around them. Below is how I’m spending $100.

4,9/ 4,9/ 10. $25 gets you 1250%

4,9/ 10/ 4,9. $15 gets you 750%
4,9/ 4,9/ 1,2,6,8,12,13. $60 gets you 500%

QUADDIE

1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10/ 7/ 1,2,3,5/ 1,2,4,8,10,13,15. $100 gets you 44.64%

 

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value

Classic Bliss (Race 1 no. 12) $12 ($25 Each Way)
Like most races tonight, this is a wide open affair but in my opinion this girl is a dead-set miler that mowed down Three Pints like he was pinned to the pegs and then beat all but La Machane home from a similar alley to this in the Vicbred Platinum Mares Sprint Championship final. She was also very good in the Cinderella Stakes last start and in a race where I suspect the cream will rise to the top I’m super keen to back her on an Each Way basis.

Best Roughies

Miz Lulabell Lombo (Race 1 no. 8) $31 ($10 by $40)
I know we’ve already had a crack at Classic Bliss (12) in this race but I’m happy to have a saver on this girl too if she comes up at the odds she’s marked in today’s Herald Sun. The philosophy here is that she is at least as talented as most of these and should enjoy a gun run either behind the leader or three pegs at worst 9and as I’ve said many timed three pegs is not the worst place to be at Melton over the 1720m trip). Either way she’s a 1x3 proposition and I’m keen to have something on.

Puddinhead (Race 2 no. 4) $31 ($10 by $40)

This is a particularly moderate 3YO affair where fi9nding the lead will go a long way towards getting you the chocolates and if this filly begins as quickly as she can I think she’ll find the lamp-lighting role. The last time she led over the 1720m at Melton she won in a mile rate of 1:58.3, so the equation is this: if she gets the front we’re a massive chance of filling a hole at least – if she doesn’t find the front it’s onward and upward to the next race on the card.

Backas Cobber (Race 3 no. 2) $31 TAB Fixed Odds ($10 by $40) - Click here to bet on this horse now

Sometimes in this game you can worry that you might be going mad, but when I saw the TAB had opened this bloke at $41 I nearly fell off my chair. He is first-up from a break tonight but to offset that he’s won a moderate Shepparton trial and he looks a massive chance of finding the early lead. At his best this bloke beat My High Expectations (3) by 27m in a NSW Trotters Derby, win two Trotters Cups and finish third in an inter Dominion heat behind I Can Doosit and Sundons Gift. It’s very speculative but I’m happy to be on this bloke just in case he’s somewhere near that form.

The Money Races

Race 8
Heats for this Tatlow Final told a pretty damning story and I think the runners that dominated there in Distant Memory (2), Shes A Runa (6) and My Bella Star (10) will do so again. Ourgirlbillilee (13)continues to have X-Factor and could blow us out if the speed was frenetic throughout but if not I think the below bets should have things covered.

2,6,10 Boxed. $18 gets 300%

2,6,10/ 2,6,10/ 5,7,8,9,13. $75 gets 250%
2,6,10/ 7,8,13/ 2,6,10. $7 gets 38.89%

Race 9

It’s rare that we can be almost 100% of where the key runners will settle in a race but I would be flabbergasted if Barkers Hall (4) didn’t lead with Teo Enteo (1) on his back and Keayang Rustler (8) three back the poles. Barkers Hall (4) usually rolls once he finds the front so expect life to be tough for those in the running line or wider on the course and for peg domination to reign supreme. Nothing is set in stone but I’m confident if we attack the race as outlined below we’ll be winning.

1,4,8 Boxed. $18 gets 300%

1,4,8/ 1,4,8/ 2,5,6,9,10,11. $54 gets 150%
1,4,8/ 2,5,6,9,10,11/ 1,4,8. $28 gets 77.78%

Quaddies

3,5,6,8,10/ 7/ 2,3,5,6,10/ 1,2,4,13,15. $62.50 gets 50%
3,5,6,8,10/ 7/ 1,4,7,8/ 1,2,4,13,15. $38.50 gets 38.5%

$25K Jackpot BIG6

2,3,4,6/ 3,5,6,8,10/ 7/ 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10/ 1,2,4,13,15/ 2,6,10. $100 gets 3.7%

* Just a note here, that you should probably take EITHER the Quads OR the BIG6. They overlap quite heavily as you would expect and playing one way is probably enough.

 

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Adam Kelly

Best Chance

My Bella Star (Race 8 no.10) $3.60 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“I would think she’ll be improved from her first run. She only flew in two days before the run and had to float down that afternoon.

“I was pretty happy with her run and she seems to have taken no affect from the travelling. If there is speed early she might be able to get into the race at some stage. There’s not much between her and Fon Design (won the Des McQueen).”

Others

Thirsty Mach (Race 6 no.2) $4

“From the draw, it’s a shame the one inside us flies early so we’ll lob in the running line I’d say and with a little bit of luck he is quite capable of winning the race.

“We might come out and have a look for the lead but I doubt we can cross. If he did and we handed up to the right one then he would be really hard to beat.”

Ima Grumpy Jasper (Race 9 no.7) $12

“On paper Barkers Hall looks the leader and it makes it tricky for us. We aren’t sure whether to go forward or back but we’ll play it as it comes.

“He seems to run his best races from the front but he is probably a little chance without getting too excited.”

Guns N Roses (Race 11 no.9) $5

“He’s trackwork has been very good. Whatever he does he will improve on but with the right sort of run he can beat a field like this.

“He might be a run short but he’s probably on ability a better horse than Lady Penrose. She was more reliable but he’s A-game is pretty good.”
 

BLACK BOOKERS – Racing Tonight

Our Blackbird (Race 4 no. 6) $4

This guy hasn’t had much fortune of late and again last week he was devoid of luck when ninth behind Jack In Flight in the Melton Cup where he never got a clear crack at them. He has a tricky draw to overcome tonight plus some quality opposition but he is certainly going well enough to win if the breaks go his way.

Lovable Larrikin (Race 6 no. 3) $6

I don’t think many people will disagree with me here when I say that he should have won last week when a fast-finishing second to Thirsty Mach and in a race where there might be some pace he should be running home strongly if he gets the right run in transit.

Our Crime Of Passion (Race 9 no. 5) $6

She was most unlucky last week when third to Aitch Cue after having to come right around the field on the turn to get clear running before charging home and if she gets the right fortune tonight from the wide alley she is sure to be a force.

STAR TRIALLERS

Amajorjo (Race 6 no. 5) $3
Classy 4YO who resumes from a short break tonight off the back of an easy Hamilton trial victory 12 days ago where he played with his rivals to win by 50m in solid time. He has some pace to his inside but he is a good chance of working to the lead or at worst to the breeze and he will be dangerous in either role.

Donegal Delight (Race 7 no. 4) $7 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse

Smart Kiwi mare having her first Aussie run for Alan Tubbs tonight and she has been primed for this with two recent trials, the latest on this circuit last Tuesday when victorious from behind the tapes. She has won 3 of her 7 attempts under these conditions back in her homeland and with the jump on her main rivals she looks worthy of a gamble first up.

Sectional Superstar

Thirsty Mach (Race 6 no. 2) $4 – Click here to bet on this horse now

This guy was three wide for the last lap at Melton a week ago and still managed to record the fastest last mile for the night thanks to a brilliant Gavin Lang drive.

That patience might need to be on show again tonight with plenty of speed drawn on the front row, but if he gets a soft run and works into the clear at the right time he will be every chance of making it three out of his last four.

Sectionals

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply

click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Stormed Out: 57.00secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Ohoka Mach: 28.47secs
Fastest Last Mile – Thirsty Mach: 1:56.20

 

Speed Maps

Race 1

DUSTY SMILES (1), JASMINE SHEFFIELD (5) & BLAZEAWAY MACRAY (7) are the best beginners off the front line & any of them could find the front here tonight. BLAZEAWAY MACRAY (7) probably holds the key because if she goes forward and does not find the front she’ll probably lob the breeze and dictate the race’s pace. BIG MUMMA FITZ (3) also likes to get out and rolling so she’ll either land the death or go three wide at some stage while MIZ LULABELL LOMBO (8) should get a soft run on the pegs. MADAM POM POM (9) & CLASSIC BLISS (12) look the best late closers from the back.

Race 2

PUDDINHEAD (4) is a pretty quick beginner on her day and should have the speed to cross stablemate SNOW CONE (1) if Kate Gath desires, while CARDON MERGER (7) should also head forward after the start. Race favourite MAGNIFICENT ART (10) can either make a mid-race move in search of the breeze or come three wide solo late while CALEDONIAN ATTACK (8) should receive a soft peg-line run & FRANCO SEELSTER (13) will look for a cart into the race somewhere late.

Race 3

Inside draws are usually favoured in these Trotters races from the mobile start so expect quick beginners MAKEMCRY MAORI (1) and BACCKAS COBBER (2) to fight out the early lead with the latter horse likely to get it if Graham McDermott forces the issue. MY HIGH EXPECTATIONS (3) should also have a sniff for the lead at some stage but may have to settle for the breeze with EARL OF MOT (11) likely to lead the three-wide line and STONED I AM (4), I SEE ICY EARL (6), COLD SISTER (9) & RIDGEHEAD CAHORE (10) all capable of ambushing their rivals if the speed is hot throughout.

Race 4

Expect a significant early burn here with ARTOC (2), CULLEN BROMAC (3), TOULOUSE LAUTREC (4), OUR BLACKBIRD (6) and DEADSETLUCKY (7) all quick off the arm but the two widest horses should be able to cross their rivals if their drivers want the front. Depending upon what toll that early battle takes sit-sprint specialists SAVESOMTIMETODREAM (5) and JUKEBOX MUSIC (9) should get their chance while CAPTAIN JOY (10) and SMUDGE BROMAC (8) will need to make their own luck but are classy enough to do so.

Race 5

ROGERS PASSION (3), BOLD LIFE (4) and VIRGINIA LIGHTNING (6) can all begin swiftly but it’s hard to see any of them holding IM SMOULDERING (7) out through the middle stages of the race. Once she finds the top expect OUR FEMME FATALE (12) to make a mid-race move in search of the chair. They should really dominate the race but JEWEL CASTLE (10) has improved sharply of late and should lead the three-wide line with MARY MON (13) somewhere on that train and capable of producing a paralysing turn of foot late.

Race 6

This would go close to being the fastest front line for an M1 to M2 race ever seen at Melton with UBRINGTHEDRINKS (10), THIRSTY MACH (2), PETE OF PAN (4) and ON THE RAZZLE (7) all brilliant off the gate and AMAJORJO (5) & JILLIBY ABLETT (6) go-forward horses by nature. Whatever happens early UBRINGTHEDRINKS (1) and AMAJORJO (5) look certain to lob prominent roles with VERANJEE (10) heading up the three-wide line and CUT FOR AN ACE (11) on his back through the final 800m.

Race 7

This is the feature of the night but with five runners having their first Standing Start race it’s near on impossible to map with confidence. What we do know is that DONEGAL DELIGHT (4) has a good record form the strands in NZ & would be favoured to find the front while AITCH CUE (1) has also performed well from the tapes and should hold her spot. Class runners OUR SIXPENCE (13) & BABY BLING (15) will be on their bike at some stage regardless of how they step while BEAUTY SECRET (2) looks most likely of the untried standing start performers if she doesn’t get too far back in transit.

Race 8

DISTANT MEMORY (2) is a quick and reliable beginner that should work her way to the lead here over fellow Riverina filly SHES A RUNA (6) who looks almost as likely to settle in the chair. MY BELLA STARR (10) is the other key runners and she should launch one run at her rivals wide out on the course with OURGIRLBILLILEE (13) dangerous if she gets the right toe home and most of the others needing a lot of luck to feature.

Race 9

This race looks a Speed Map dream with BARKERS HALL (4) almost certain to find the front with TEO ENTEO (1) on his back and KEAYANG RUSTLER (8) three back the poles. OUR CRIME OF PASSION (5) is a sit-sprinter by nature but may have to do some work to be any winning chance while SHANDON VILLAGE (11) & LOUVRE (10) look the best late closing propositions. IMA GRUMPY JASPER (7) is the only candidate to upset the apple cart here if he keeps going forward early and pours the pressure on as a consequence.

Race 10

COMPOSITE (2) began quickly in her heat of this race and should go looking for the lead once again with IVANTO WIN (6) also pushing forward in search of a handy role. FLYIN INDI AIR (9) was dominant last time out and should come with one sustained run at her rivals while OUR GREAT SPIRIT (4) will be hoping for gaps in the lane along with MISTER RUFUS (8), SALOHCIN (10) and MANYY TIAVON (12).

Race 11

ONEDIN HUSTLER (1) has excellent early speed on his day and should be able to repel the challenges from REAL SMOOTH LOMBO (4) and co to keep the early lead. WASHMEPOCKETS (7) usually works forward when drawn wide so he looks the chief candidate to find the chair while CATCH YOUR BREATH (8) should enjoy a soft peg-line run and GUNS N ROSES (9) should come with one sustained run wide out on the track.

Race 12

There is plenty of front line toe again here but LOOK HERE BLOKE (3) and GOLDEN PHOTO (7) are quickest off the arm  & one of them should lead. Once the dust settles GLENFERRIE DREAMER (9) can either make a mid-race move in search of the breeze and smoke his pipe and wait for one race-winning move late while WORTHERLY (1) should enjoy a soft peg-line run & SONOFPACO (2) should be in the firing line throughout.