Friday, September 6, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ Melton

Adam Hamilton's Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
There’s no getting around the fact that tonight’s meeting is a tricky one with all three Battle of the Claimers heats pitting interstate interlopers against Victoria’s better second tier veterans and a couple of other races that look more like raffles. Having said all that however, I do think we can target a little Formula 2 w/ three Best Bets, plus one Best Value, one Best Roughie, two Money Races and the Quad to make some coin.

Best Bets/ Formula 3 ($60 gets 20 units)
Eliminator (Race 3 no.9) $3.50 - Click here to bet on this horse now
If you put a line through this guy’s last start performance then he’d be a lot shorter than he’ll start tonight and virtually unbeatable at that. Horses do go off the boil and he may have but I’m forgiving a good horse one bad run and expecting he will be too strong tonight.
Elegant Image (Race 6 no. 1) $1.70 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
On facts, figures and his last start performance this bloke is almost over the line. Put simply, he will almost certainly lead and over the 2240m he should be able to cop any amount of pressure from Earl Of Mot (4) in transit and still have a kick in the locker in the lane.

Braveheart Stride (Race 8 no. 9) $2.80 - Click here to bet on this horse now
The last time this bloke came to Victoria he finished 3m from Saint Flash and co in a very strong M1 affair and given he returns under the tutelage of Emma Stewart, for whom he recently finished second in a very strong Ballarat trial, I just think this race is at his mercy.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Broadways Best (Race 7 no. 1) $5.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I realise I’m probably not I’m my Pat Malone here but the way I see this race panning out, the above mare should settle behind the leader (probably Im Barney Rubble (3)) and if the two big guns in Melpark Major (10) & Bitobliss (11) play cat-and-mouse at the back of the field for too long she is the one to beat.

Best Roughie ($25 Place)
Wartime Sweetheart (Race 7 no. 8) $5 Place TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This is an extremely strong race but there are a number of factors playing in this guy’s favour tonight. Chief among them is the fact that he’s likely to lob three back the pegs, and given he’s a total Peg-line Warrior who also thrives over the short course, I think the $5 is good enough on a place-only basis.

The Money Races
Race 6 ($50 Flexi Trifectas) - Click here to bet on this race now
As mentioned above I think Elegant Image (1) is close to a good thing here with Kyvalley Blur (5) the major danger and both Mister Zion (8) and Ridgehead Cahore (9) drawn to feature late. I think they’ll dominate the race with limited other capable of filling up the podium.

1/ 5,8,9/ 3,5,8,9/ 3,4,5,7,8,9. $36 gets 100%
5,8/ 1/ 3,5,8,9/ 3,4,5,7,8,9. $14 gets 58.33%

Race 7 ($50 Flexi Trifectas) - Click here to bet on this race now
The cream should really rise to the top here with Bitobliss (11), Broadways Best (1) & Melpark Major (10) dominating proceedings. Outside of them there are a few other place hopes but if they comprise the Quinella, we’ll be making some coin.

11/ 1,10/ 1,3,8,10. $24 gets 400%
11/ 1,10/ 6,7,9. $12 gets 200%
1,10/ 11/ 1,3,8,10. $12 gets 200%
1,10/ 11/ 6,7,9. $2 gets 33.33%

Quaddies (x4) - Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
1,3,6,7/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,9/ 1/ 11. $30 gets 111.11%
1,3,6,7/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,9/ 1/ 1,10. $42 gets 75%
1,3,6,7/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,9/ 5,8/ 11. $14 gets 25%
1,3,6,7/ 1,2,3,4,6,7,9/ 5,8/ 1,10. $14  gets 12.5%

Star Triallers (Racing Tonight)
Our Arlington (Race 5 no. 6) $6.50 - Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke is certainly worth thought in a wide open race based on his excellent trial second behind Group 1 winner Chancellor Cullen at Melton 10 days back. He is a very talented pacer on his day and may be ready to take the next step this season.

Braveheart Stride (Race 8 no. 9) $2.80 - Click here to bet on this horse now
As mentioned above, this bloke is first up for the ultra powerful Emma Stewart barn and he trialled like he’s going to run a big race tonight when going under by a head to Mister Sheedy in a 57.5-sec last half at Ballarat last weekend.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Grant Hodges
Best Chance
Empty Envelope (Race 2 no.10) $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s probably the best of the four but he hasn’t had a run for quite a while. He is a gross sort of horse but I’ve tried to keep the work up to him at home.

“He’s probably better known as a stayer but being fresh at the shorter distance hopefully he can get a cart in and be right in the finish.

“He’s probably just got the wood on them in trackwork so he’s probably my best chance.”

Sky Tower (Race 2 no.6) $5.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He is really consistent and he’s been a good money spinner for the owners, he won 22 or something like that.

“He might not be as genuine as he used to be but he’s been around a lot and he’ll run his usual race if he has some luck.”

Friday Lunch (Race 3 no.4) $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s done a good job. He was originally in Victoria as a C1 when I got him and we’ve won eight or 10 races with him.

“He’s a big strong horse and he has gate speed. He seems to be hitting his straps at the right time.”

Watchmefella (Race 8 no.6) $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He has a good turn of foot if he can get the right run. He will need some luck from the wide barrier but he has been in good form.

“He can’t burn too much earlier but he won’t be far away if he gets the right run into it.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Carpenters Daughter: 26.64secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Exciteusinthecity: 54.75secs
Fastest Last Mile – Have A Bender: 1:52.84

Sectional Superstar
Mister Onetwo (Race 4 no.7) – $2.00 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Emma Stewart and Clayton Tonkin have the happy knack of improving horses when they are transferred to their Smythes Creek Stable and Mister Onetwo’s first-up run for the camp last week was simply outstanding.

Rushing home in 27.54 and 55.77 he was the quickest home in his race by far and if he has any luck from the outside draw he will be hard to beat.

Speed Maps

Race 1
Stand start trotting affairs are always difficult to map but several of these can begin well off the front line including GLUTEUS MAJOR (1), BUTTON BRIGADE (3), GOLDSTAR INVASION (4) and IMGUNNADOGOOD (7). Expect GLUTEUS MAJOR (1) to either lead or occupy a forward spot with MICHAEL THOMAS (8) securing a soft trip if he begins OK. KYVALLEY RAP (5), COOKEYSLASS (10), ABBOTSGALL (11) and HEZA BOY STAR (13) are all capable of closing dangerously late along with enigmatic Group 1 winner BRIEF GLANCE (9) whose biggest challenge will be staying in gait throughout.

Race 2
Amazingly, there is almost no front line speed engaged here which should help roughie polemarker HIGHVIEW SPIRIT (2) hold her rivals wide early before potentially handing over to an appropriate rival mid-race. SPOT NINE (4) is the most likely to test HIGHVIEW SPIRIT (2) early and would vastly improve his winning chances if he found the lead. Most of the others engaged, with the exception of one-paced warrior TAPPER TORNEY (3) and grinding stayer DARTMOOR (9) are essentially sit-sprinters with Ross Sugars recruit COWBOY CADILLAC (8) and Tassie Visitors SKY TOWER (6) & EMPTY ENVELOPE (10) among the dangerous late closers.

Race 3
The potential for early fireworks is very real here with FRIDAY LUNCH (4), GREEK TO ME (5) & PETE OF PAN (6) all capable of flying the mobile arm. PETE OF PAN (6) has been mixing his tactics a little of late so expect FRIDAY LUNCH (5) to hold his rivals wide with either ELIMINATOR (9) or MELPARK MAESTRO (7) working up to sit parked and the other of that duo leading the three wide line. 

Race 4
This is another of race boasting plenty of early speed with BELLASARIO (1) and PEACES OF YOU (3) likely to fight their own battle for the early lead before INDULGENT (6) and MISTER ONETWO (7) further press the issue from wide out on the track. There is a small chance that BELLASARIO (1) would want to keep the lead if she found it but expect INDULGENT (6) to keep bullying forward until he finds the front with aggressive reinsman Matty Craven on board. In that scenario MISTER ONETWO (7) would have to race tough while the rest, including dangerous late closers BETTOR BELIEVE IT (5) and GIVEUSAGRIN (10) will need plenty of speed on here to win.

Race 5
There’s little doubt that BORN AGAIN SASSY (1) should muster the necessary speed to hold her rivals wide early on here even with DONEGAL DELIGHT (4) out and running early but she is likely to relinquish that advantage once OUR ARLINGTON (6) and particularly CATCH YOUR BREATH (7) press the issue through the early/middle stages of the race. BETTOR GIVE IT (3) should relish the chance to wind up into this race from the handy front line draw along with CUT FOR AN ACE (9) while DONEGAL DELIGHT (4) and STYLISH JASPER (2) can really rip a quarter if the gaps open for them late.

Race 6
ELEGANT IMAGE (1) is a very quick beginner from the mobile start who should have little trouble booting through to hold the early lead and from there he’s very unlikely to hand up that advantage. It’s equally likely that EARL OF MOT (4) will play his usual role of enforcer from the breeze while MISTER ZION (8) and RIDGEHEAD CAHORE (9) should enjoy nice economical runs if the former horse is able to kick through and hold the leaders back in transit. KASYANOV (7) is talented but may get out of his ground first up from the wide draw while KYVALLEY BLUR (5) can be dangerous from wherever he lobs but may even be a blowout hope with the right cart into things late.

Race 7
The premium on finding the pegs first here is massive so expect BROADWAYS BEST (1) to hunt through early with IM BARNEY RUBBLE (3), MEGA ALEXANDER (5) and TOULOUSE LAUTREC (7) all rushing forward to relieve her of the top. It’s most likely that BROADWAYS BEST (1) will camp on the back of IM BARNEY RUBBLE (3) but there is some hope that TOULOUSE LAUTREC (7) will get past them both. If they drop anchor immediately after that early burn then the top end runners will be advantaged but if the tempo stays solid then class runners MELPARK MAJOR (10) and BITOBLISS (11) – who could play cat and mouse for a fair while at the rear – will track each other home and drop on their rivals in the lane.

Race 8
MEGASAM (3) is probably the best beginner off the front line here but even if he lobs the top he may still take a sit in transit with MACH RULER (5) possibly the first to test him and BRAVEHEART STRIDE (9) also likely to push forward from his second line draw. They comprise three of the race’s key runners while the other two in THIRSTY MACH (10) and WATCHMEFELLA (6) are sit-sprint specialists who will need economical runs and the speed on early to feature at the business end.

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