Good Form Preview - Aussie Day @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)
 

The Money Races

Race 5
This should be a competitive Derby heat with Lennytheshark and Flaming Flutter looking to have an edge over their rivals in my opinion and I’m going to base some trifectas around the pair.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

2,11/ 2,11/ 3,4,5,9.  $50 gets you 625%  2,11/ 3,4,5,9/ 2,11.  $50 gets you 625%

Race 7
I’ve been really taken by what I’ve seen of Ohoka Punter across the Tasman this season and despite the wide draw I think he has a terrific chance of taking this out so I’m going to anchor him to win or run second in a couple of trifectas.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

7/ 3,4,5,12/ 3,4,5,12.  $60 gets you 500% 3,4,5/ 7/ 3,4,5,12.  $40 gets you 444.44%

Quaddie
10/ 2,11/ 2/ 3,4,5,7.  $100 gets you 1250%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value

Lively Princess (Race 8 no. 10) $5
This is the final pacing race of the night and by far the best one on which to make a killing. Nats Survival (3) is almost certainly the leader here and the horse they have to beat but she’s likely to be a red figure favourite while Lively Princess (10) is marked at $5 and is probably going even better. Last start she would almost certainly have beaten Nats Survival (3) with clear running and while the poor draw and short trip won’t help I just think she’ll mow the favourite down.

Best Quinella

Race 8

Nats Survival (3) & Lively Princess (8)
This is THE bet of the night for those wanting to have just one crack. Nothing complex here that we haven’t outlined above. Put simply, these are the best two horses in the race by a fair way and while the dividend won’t be huge, I see it as an ALMOST guaranteed win. You can also play Trifectas & First 4’s with these two to runs first & second.

Best Roughies

Pete Of Pan (Race 2 no. 4) $15
A brilliant beginner from the mobile start, this guy should be in front within 50m of the start. He is more than likely to look for a suitable horse to sit on thereafter and if things fall into place for him he is a massive place hope and may even be worth a very small bet to blouse his rivals at odds.

Echeveria (Race 5 no. 5) $16/$3.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
Put simply, I have big doubts about the NSW form heading into this Vic Derby and actually think the first three horses’ home will be the same as the SA Derby. This bloke ran third in that race, making ground on Flaming Flutter (11) & Lennytheshark (2) all the way to the wire. The draw is awkward here but if he lobs a spot the $21 is massive value indeed.

Quaddies (x2)
10/ 11/ 2/ 3,4,7. $48 gets 1600%10/ 2,5/ 2/ 3,4,7. $52 gets 866.67%

Bill Hutchison (@Hutchysays)

Best Bet

Michael Thomas (Race 3 no. 3) $2.70
Lightly raced 6YO who has beaten better than these in the past and looks the absolute special of the night.

Best Value

Lennytheshark (Race 5 no. 2) $3.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
He was forced to sit outside Flaming Flutter (11) in the SA Derby last start yet was still taking ground of him most of the way up the straight. He should stay in front of his main danger here and can certainly reverse the decision this time as a result.

Best Roughies

Dodge The Bullet (Race 1 no. 5) $10
Ran a big race when wide to the breeze and second here a fortnight ago. he looks a terrific value bet to kick off the card.

My Hard Copy (Race 7 no. 2) $15 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
The four Kiwi invaders (3,4,5,& 7) look to have this between them but I have been impressed by this ex-Kiwi performer who draws to cause an upset at terrific value tonight.

Money Race

Race 2

Class should prevail here so box up the better-class Claimers drawn the second line and throw in Luv Tha Aces Lombo form what will end up being the pole.

Box Tri: 2,9,10,12,13. $60 gets 250%.

Quaddie

10/ 2,4,11/ 2/3 ,4,5,7. $60 gets 500%.

 

BLACKBOOKERS (Racing Tonight)

Christian Sloy (Race 5 no. 9) $26 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

Was having his first run for Susan Hunter at Kilmore 9 days ago where he charged home into second spot behind Truman in a slippery last quarter of 27.7.  He is a maiden after 9 starts plus he takes on the big boys tonight but it was an encouraging effort first up for the new stable and you could do worse than have something on him each way at the odds.

Keayang Left Hook (Race 6 no. 10) $61 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

Ran a cracking race at only his third start at Hamilton last time where he sat parked and held his own in a last quarter of 27.7.  He will be no match for Guaranteed tonight but if you’re looking to back one at big odds the place he might be worthy of an investment.

SPEED MAPS

Please note that this week there will only be graphic representations of the likely settling positions in tonight's Vic Derby heats and punters are encouraged to follow @hrvinformer for all change of tactics information right throughout the night.

 

Faves Fly Flag in Vic Derby Qualifiers

 

It’s a favourites bonanza in the Victoria Derby Heats if recent results are anything to go on. 21 of the past 38 heats have been won by the favourite with another 6 heats won by horses starting under $4 or 3/1 in the old. And looking at the positions at the bell, you MUST be up in the first 4 to have a realistic chance.

Only 3 favourites have missed a place in the heats since 2000 – Idol Stride in 2003 (5^th), Monkey King in 2006 (4^th) and Tip Your Hat also in 2006 (9^th) after galloping at the start.

 

For the full, forensic analysis of Victoria Derby heat stats from Good Form stats guru Adrian 'Ace' Barlow just click here.

 

Click here to bet on tonight's meeting