Thursday, January 17, 2013

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Kilmore


THE GAME PLAN for Kilmore – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Roughie

Juan Amigo (Race 5 no. 2) $15
This guy hasn’t been disgraced at his past two behind quality types Eljulio and La Pucelle from behind the mobile and he gets back to his more favoured standing start today.  He ran a solid second to Lights And Music in one of these races at Maryborough three back where he began well, trailed the leader and battled on well so if he can jump to the front or get a cheap run on the pegs he can be dangerous at good odds.

The Money Races

Race 1
Truman is the one to beat here with Soho Eastwood and Christian Sloy his only dangers so I’m going to play around with that trio in some trifectas for $100 total spend.

4/ 3,6/ 3,6.  $60 gets you 3000%
4/ 3,6/ 1,2.  $20 gets you 500%
3,6/ 4/ 3,6.  $10 gets you 500%
3,6/ 4/ 1,2.  $10 gets you 250%

Race 4
Mister Sheedy is clearly the one to beat with Shifting Sand his main and only threat so I’m going to play some trifectas around the pair for $100 total spend.

7/ 4/ 1,2,5.  $45 gets you 1500%
7/ 1,2,5/ 4.  $40 gets you 133.33%
4/ 7/ 1,2,5.  $15 gets you 500%

Race 6
Im Cool and Im Jensen look to have the wood on their rivals and are a big chance of running 1,2 with Pirates Wealth likely to be three-back the pegs and in with a value chance of filling third spot so I’m going to take a cheap trifecta with them and another one with the field to fill third for a $100 total spend.

1,2/ 1,2/ 9.  $10 gets you 500%
1,2/ 1,2/ Field.  $90 gets you 500%

Race 7
Our Missionary Man will be much too good for this lot with Mr McArdle the one to anchor some trifectas around as he should do enough from the pole to keep the early lead before more than likely handing up to Our Missionary Man.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

6/ 1/ 2,3,4,8,9,10.  $70 gets you 1166.66%
6/ 2,3,4,10/ 1.  $30 gets you 750%

Quaddie (x2) $100 Outlay
7/ 2,5,7,8,9,11/ 1,2/ 6.  $70 gets you 583.33%
4/ 2,5,7,8,9,11/ 1,2/ 6.  $30 gets you 250%

STAR TRIALLERS

Christian Sloy (Race 1 no. 6) $4.20
Newcomer to the Susan Hunter stable who trialled well at Melton 10 days ago when third to smart types Bliss Man and Macha (impressive winning first up at Hamilton last Sunday) and although Truman will be a tough nut to crack this guy is not totally hopeless first up for the new barn.

Im Jensen (Race 6 no. 1) $2.60
Bec Cartwright-trained 4YO on debut who won a Yarra Valley trial 11 days back in slow time but did run home in 28.8 to win comfortably so he has obvious ability and from the pole in a moderate race he is given a strong chance first up.

BLACK BOOKERS – (Ballarat Last Night)

Badewitz
Sat in the breeze outside of classy filly Our Femme Fatale and did a great job to hang onto second in 1:57.3 for the sprint trip with the last quarter being run in a slippery 27.3.  That was only his second start in a race and he will be busting his maiden very soon on last night’s performance. Click here to view the run.

Illawong Magic
Did his share of work mid-race to find the spot outside of the leader and after briefly hitting the lead on the home turn he just felt the pinch the last 50m to run a close up third to the handy El Paco.  That was his third run for Ross Sugars and is sure to be hard to beat in whatever he contests next on that effort. Click here to view the run.

Lotsa Life
Broke shortly after the start and ended up out the back early but he was let loose by Greg Sugars at the 600m to rush past the leaders before running away from his rivals in the stretch to win most impressively.  Debuts don’t get much better than what he produced last night and he looks to have a bright future. Click here to view the run.

Cute Art
Dean Braun-prepared mare who was terrific in defeat behind the handy Easy Lightning where she charged home off cover to give that bloke a real scare at the end of a 28.0 second final stanza.  She has only had the two starts to date but shows promise and will be breaking through for her first victory very soon. Click here to view the run.



No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.