Good Form Preview - Ouyen @ Vic Harness HQ

THE GAME PLAN for Melton – with Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

Best Bets

Regal Knight (Race 1 no. 5) $2.50

Resumed from a break at Ballarat 8 days ago from the stand where he did his share of work in the run off his 10m handicap and went down fighting behind Vinni Gambino and that form has been franked with that fellow winning well at Kilmore last night.  He will be better for the outing, draws to race in or near the lead and I think he’ll be too strong.

Well Hello Dolly (Race 6 no. 2) $1.60

I’m the president of this mare’s fan club, as she has been very good to me over the past few months and her run last week behind Pembrook Caesar in the Graham Goffin Memorial was terrific considering nothing went right for her at all.  She looks a graded certainty tonight being an M3 who is racing against mostly metropolitan maidens and whether Chris Lang Jnr holds the lead with her or hands over to a suitable runner I really can’t see her being rolled.

Because I Can (Race 7 no. 4) $2.80

This guy is fast becoming one of my favourite horses, mostly due to his racing style of spearing out and handing up, which is a potent weapon when racing at this level, particularly on this circuit.  He was super in defeat last week behind Mah Sish in fast time and with the early lead his again for sure tonight Gavin Lang will give him every possible chance to register an overdue win.

The Money Race

Race 7

As mentioned above I’m really keen on Because I Can to get the cash and I think he really only has the one danger in Smudge Bromac who was luckless last week behind Mah Sish so I’m going to base some trifectas and first fours around the pair.  I’m splashing out on this race with $200 total spend.

4,9/ 4,9/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,11.  $50 gets you 357.14%

4,9/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,11/ 4,9.  $50 gets you 357.14%
4,9/ 4,9/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,11/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,10,11.  $50 gets you 51.02%
4,9/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,11/ 4,9/ 1,2,3,5,6,8,10,11.  $50 gets you 51.02%

Quaddies (x4) $100 Outlay

4,5,8,9,10,11/ 2,3,4,7,8,12/ 2/ 4.  $45 gets you 125%
4,5,8,9,10,11/ 2,3,4,7,8,12/ 2/ 9,11.  $30 gets you 41.66%
4,5,8,9,10,11/ 2,3,4,7,8,12/ 1,3/ 4.  $15 gets you 20.83%
4,5,8,9,10,11/ 2,3,4,7,8,12/ 1,3/ 9,11.  $10 gets you 6.94%






Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk

Lance Justice

Melton

Best Chance

Because I Can (Race 7 no. 4)
“This horse went well for Gavin (Lang) last week and he told me the horse has got a pretty bright future. He said he’d make it down to Cup class which is very pleasing to hear from a bloke like Gavin. He’s great out of the gate and can run really good time so I would say he’s the best of my two chances in the race because he’ll go straight to the front and they’ll have to run him down.

Others

Hoagy Bromac (Race 1 no. 8)
“I thought he went pretty good at Horsham. He got used up pretty hard at the start and kicked clear of the field by about 10m at one stage so he never really got a breather and conditions were horrendous. I expect him to go a lot better than what his form reads like at the minute because he wasn’t bad last time and he’ll only improve.”

Machin Out (Race 4 no. 10)
“At Melton you’re a lot better chance of coming from behind and getting up. At Cranbourne he came from last at the 400m mark and almost got the job done so at Melton this week he looks really nicely placed. It’s a nice field but he’s going really, really good and I think he’s a big winning chance.”

Le Rapide (Race 6 no. 7)
“He went good at Cranbourne when he sat behind American Muscle and held his own in a 56.2-second final half last time. Having said that I think he’s in a bit of trouble from barrier seven over the sprint lane so he’s a place chance at best.”

Alchemy (Race 7 no. 11)
“He went super last week, Rodney (Petroff) drove him a treat and while he couldn’t get up enough momentum to win he still ran a fantastic race and he’s going really well. He’s starting to learn to race the Australian way. In New Zealand they train them to come out and look for a sit but you’ve to go twice in Australia and the penny’s dropping with him that ‘s what you have to do.”
Sonofpaco (Race 10 no. 13)
“He’s got three lines in front of him tonight which isn’t ideal. He’s got some ability but trotters take time and I’d risk him from back there tonight.”

Globe Derby

Best Chance

Smoken Up (Race 7 no. 7)
“He’s got the worst gate imaginable for him that is for sure. One thing in his favour is that he’s the best beginner off the second row I’ve ever driven. There’s no question about going back with him because he just wants to race through the field. Hopefully he gets off early and he can get into the race because it’ll be a great contest if he and Caribbean Blaster both get their chance.

Others

Our Malabar (Race 6 no. 7)
“He was a good run at Ballarat when getting up for fourth from last in that free for all the I was slightly disappointed with him last weekend at Melton. He really didn’t finish off that well. Things didn’t go his way there but he’s still battling a bit so I’m going to leave him in Adelaide this to be trained by Leah Harvey.”

Mark Dennis (Race 7 no. 3)
“He’s here because his owner is an Adelaide personality. He won’t disgrace himself, he’ll get out of the gate hard and may even take up the front-running. He may even help Smoken Up by putting the pressure on early but he’s obviously running for third at best with the two big guns against him.”

STAR TRIALLERS

Stoned I Am (Race 5 no. 12) $10

Was put away after failing in the Kilmore Trotters Cup back in October last year and resumes off the back of a trial success on this track over quality types Kasyanov and Elegant Image, both of whom are live chances in the SA Trotters Cup tomorrow night at Globe Derby, so he’s obviously forward enough to run a race tonight and is worth a ticket each way in what is an open Ouyen Trotters Cup.

BLACK BOOKER (Charlton Yesterday)

Dutch Harbour

This guy is not the best horse in the Emma Stewart barn and is yet to win in 6 goes this time in but he indicated another victory is just around the corner with a gutsy second to Lombo Sleek Streak yesterday where he did stacks of work in a 57.2 first half to find the breeze before going down fighting in 1:56.0 for the sprint trip. Click here to view the run.
 

SIX KICKS BUTT - AT TABCORP PARK

Barrier 6 at Tabcorp Park has the best winning percentage of any barrier, that being 12.7% (256 wins from 2,016 starts). This percentage increases to 13.2% if barrier 7 is not used.

The favourite wins 43.7% of the time at Tabcorp Park. When the favourite starts from barrier 6 it wins 49.5% of the time, if there is no horse starting from Barrier 7, the winning percentage jumps to 54.1%. This is the best barrier for favourites (the next best being barrier 11)

Odds on favourites win 60.1% of the time at Tabcorp Park. When barrier 6 is an odds on favourite this winning percentage jumps to 69.9% and if there is no Barrier 7, this percentage increases to a whopping 77.1%

The average SP for winners at Tabcorp Park is $7.25. For barrier 6 winners the average is $7.16, if there is no horse starting from barrier 7 the average drops to $6.40

Get on Barrier 6!!