Friday, November 29, 2013

Good form Preview - Friday Night @ Bray

The Game Plan for Ballarat - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bets
Soho Lennon (Race 1 no. 13) $3.50 ($20 Win)
This guy is a 3YO taking on the older horses from the worst possible gate but classic-age horses have an excellent record in these lower class affairs and this bloke has returned to racing in excellent style this campaign. Critically, he has also won both of his starts this prep from off the speed so he doesn’t need to play bully to win and Mick Stanley knows this track like the back of his hand.

Cowboy Cadillac (Race 2 no. 10) $2 ($50 Win)
In many ways this bloke might be better suited as an anchor for Trifectas and First 4’s because he never runs a bad race and will almost certainly feature on the dais but I think in his current vein of form he really should be winning this with even luck. Expect him to make a mid-race move and prove a shade too strong although Waterhorse (11) first up for Dean Braun could cause him some bother.

Win The Crowd (Race 4 no. 10) $2.20 ($30 Win)
It’s never easy to come off a 20m backmark over middle distance trips and this bloke is another who might be better suited as an exotic anchor but he loves Ballart, he loves the standing and given there’s a question mark over each of his key rivals here I’m backing him to prove a class above in the final 100m.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 1
As previously mentioned, I am pretty keen on Soho Lennon (13) here. In fact the only thing that can beat him is if they go too slow in front and even then I think he’ll rush home for second to take the tricks below and we should end up on top.

13/ 3,6,12/ 3,6,8,10,11,12. $30 gets 200%
13/ 8,10,11/ 3,6,8,10,11,12. $10 gets 66.67%
3,6,12/ 13/ 3,6,8,10,11,12. $10 gets 66.67%

Race 3
This looks a dead-set match race between Metro Mike (6) and Magical Telf (5) and given I think the former horse can cross the latter early I’m tipping he will be the one to snare the prize.

6/ 5/ 1,2,7. $39 gets 1300%
5/ 6/ 1,2,7. $11 gets 366.67%

Race 9

I will be shocked if My Bella Starr (5) and Tallulah Bay (6) don’t finish one-two in that order here but rather than take an extremely skinny Exacta I’ve carved up three neat Tricks in the hope of maximising our profit on the race.

5/ 6/ 2. $20 gets 2000%
5/ 6/ 1,3. $20 gets 1000%
5/ 6/ 7,8. $10 gets 500%

The Quads (x4)
10/ 2,5,6,7/ 6,7,10/ 1,4,5,10,12. $40 gets 66.67%
10/ 2,5,6,7/ 1,2,8/ 1,4,5,10,12. $15 gets 25%
1,8,11/ 2,5,6,7/ 6,7,10/ 1,4,5,10,12. $36 gets 20%
1,8,11/ 2,5,6,7/ 6,7,10/ 1,4,5,10,12. $9 gets 5%

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