Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Good Form Preview - Tuesday @ Kilmore

The Game Plan for Kilmore – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
After a very pleasing weekend, yesterday Horsham was an unmitigated disaster, but rather than cry into our pillows we’re going to pony up as we always do for a decent crack at Kilmore’s card tonight. There are no dead-set certainties on the programme but that should make for some competitive racing and perhaps some value results so follow me in on my 1 Best Bet at a very handy price, 1 Best Value Bet, 2 Money Races and 6 Quads and we should bounce back with a decent win.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
No Bettertime (Race 6 no. 4) $3.25
I’ve been a pretty big fan of this guy for quite some time now and I loved both the gate speed he used to lead first-up at Ballarat and also his tenacity to fight off what looks like a very smart horse in Bushrod until the final 30m. He should lead again tonight and while he’s taking on some handy ones I think he’ll be too good.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Sotiris (Race 1 no. 6) $8.50
This bloke is resuming for his first run since August and will have the services of top-class trainer, Wayne Potter and superstar driver, Nathan Jack for the very first time. At his best this guy is a quick beginner and given Ida Tiger (1) is likely to take a sit I think Jack can get him to the top pretty early on. If that scenario prevails the $8.50 would look unbelievable indeed.

The Money Races
Race 1 ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
To my mind there are three key hopes here to win and limited other who are likely to land on the podium so take the Tricks below and hope for some value somewhere in the placings.

1,6,7/ 1,6,7/ 1,2,6,7,8,9. $38 gets 158.33%
1,6,7/ 2,8,9/ 1,2,6,7,8,9. $12 gets 50%

Race 6 ($100 Flexi Trifectas)
As previously mentioned, I see No Bettertime (4) as the leader and winner here but he does have two major threats in Dont Wanadie (8) and The Major League (10) and if they dominate the race between them we’ll make some folding form the race.

4/ 8,10/ 8,10. $50 gets 2500%
8,10/ 4,8,10/ 4,8,10. $20 gets 500%
4/ 8,10/ 1,2,3,6,9. $20 gets 200%
8,10/ 4,8,10/ 1,2,3,6,9. $10 gets 50%

The Quads (x6)
10/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/  4/ 4,7,9. $28 gets 155.56%
10/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/ 8,10/ 4,7,9. $18 gets 50%
5,11/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/ 4/ 4,7,9. $18 gets 50%
5,11/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/ 8,10/ 4,7,9. $9 gets 25%
1,2,8,12/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/ 4/ 4,7,9. $18 gets 25%
1,2,8,12/ 2,3,8,10,11,12/ 8,10/ 4,7,9. $9 gets 12.5%

Star Trialler
Ess Prefontaine (Race 4 no. 5) $9
(2190m/2:03.8 – 60.5secs/ Neck x Neck/ Rosemary Lane 2nd Shepparton Thursday 14 November)
David Aiken continues to produce some handy types at the Shepparton trials and this guy could well be the next in a long line of good horses for the stable.
He is as yet unraced but we’ve seen him at the trials three times this preparation.

Don’t be perturbed by the two sixths next to his name in his first couple of hit outs because he was taken off the arm in each and never extended when finishing towards the rear.
Two weeks he was allowed to slide a little more in the straight and he rounded up his rivals with consummate ease.

He certainly hasn’t beaten anything of note but he looks like a clean-actioned horse that has plenty of room to improve.
We shouldn’t be taking any outrageous odds on debut, but if he is around the each-way level then he is worth a bet.

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