Adam Hamilton's Preview
The Game Plan for Melton - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
In a couple of simple words: I’m keen. Tonight’s programme is jam packed w/ attractive betting propositions and while the Money Races should be the cornerstone of our night we’ve also got Best Bets, A Best Value Bet, A Best Roughie and some Quads to keep us involved tight throughout the evening so if you’re looking to get or grow a bank for Derby Day tomorrow then follow up the Game Plans and hope like hell Kyvalley Blur gets the chocolates!
Best Bets/ All-Up ($50)
Lite Jagermeister (Race 1 no. 7) $2 – Click here to bet on this horse nowThe scratching of Just Live Life here has been crucial in me including this former Kiwi mare as one of my Best Bets. Simply put, I think it’s a huge advantage to draw wide on the front line in PBD races because it gives you a wonderful chance to push forward early and stay in front of your major rivals. I also think this mare is somewhat untapped and will only get better under Adam Kelly’s care.
Jazz King (Race 5 no. 4) $1.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Anyone who’s been following the sport in recent weeks will
know this guy is on fire at the minute with six wins in succession and his most
recent win over Metro Mike had to be seen to be believed. With his racing style
the bubble can burst at some stage but there’s no reason it will be here and
with even luck he should make it seven straight tonight.
Kyvalley Blur (Race 6 no. 8) $1.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Without doubt this is my BEST bet of the programme. A boom
horse for some time now, this bloke finally jagged a monster scalp when leading
throughout to vanquish Elegant Image in the R C Freestone Trotters Cup and
given he’s facing a handy but not outstanding list of rivals here I think he
can lob anywhere in transit and still prove too classy when it matters.
Best Value ($10 x $20)
Empty Envelope (Race 7 no. 1) $8.50 – Click here to bet on this horse nowThis guy is not my top tip tonight but based on his effort three starts back when drawing this alley, kicking through to hold the op early and battling on to runs second behind Catch Your Breath after handing up in transit, I think he can certainly fill a hole at least tonight. He was also better than he looked in his heat last weekend so if you’re getting a price make sure you get involved.
Best Roughie ($5 x $25)
Stylish Jasper (Race 4 no. 5) $21/$5 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse nowThe TAB bookies must have missed this mare rattling home to roll Shake It Mama (3) last week or otherwise there’s no excuse that mare to be $2.10 and ours to be $21. I’m not saying she’ll win, in fact she’s only my fourth tip in the race and always needs a HEAP of luck to feature but I marked her at $8.50 so at $21 and $5 the place she’s well worth a speculative lash for mine.
The Money Races
Race 3 ($80 Flexi First 4’s) – Click here to bet on this race now
Essentially, this looks a three-horse race between Giveusagrin (4), Regal Knight (6) and Tara Toplady (7). I’m tipping they will totally dominate and given Regal Knight (6) is the best horse engaged he should probably win or finish second at very worst.
6/ 4,7/ 4,7/ 1,2,5,8. $40 gets 500%
6/ 4,7/ 2,8/ 1,2,4,5,7,8. $16 gets 100%4,7/ 6/ 4,7/ 1,2,5,8. $16 gets 200%
4,7/ 6/ 2,8/ 1,2,4,5,7,8. $8 gets 50%
Race 6 ($80 Flexi First 4’s) – Click here to bet on this race now
Much of our night will rely on Kyvalley Blur (8) getting
the chocolates but I’m happy to have it that way. As mentioned many times, he
should be winning from anywhere in transit here while four other hopes should
be fighting out the placings.
8/ 1,2,4,7/ 1,2,4,7/ 1,2,4,6,7. $72 gets 200%
8/ 1,2,4,7/ 1,2,4,7/ 3,5. $8 gets 33.33%Race 7 ($80 First 4's) – Click here to bet on this race now
Despite his last stride defeat in a heat of this final last weekend I think Sals Mo (4) is definitely the horse to beat here and given he should find the front soon after the start he should finish no worse than second even if they drill him all the way. Basing out wagers around that notion I think we can make some significant coin.
4/ 2,6,7,9,13/ 2,6,7,9,13/ 2,6,7,9,10,13. $60 gets 100%
6,7,13/ 4/ 2,6,7,9,13/ 2,6,7,9,10,13. $20 gets 41.67%
The Quads (x4) – Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
3,6,7/ 4/ 8/ 1,4,6,7,13. $60 gets 400%3,6,7/ 2,7,9,10/ 8/ 1,4,6,7,13. $30 gets 50%
1,2,5,8/ 4/ 8/ 1,4,6,7,13. $10 gets 50%
The Game Plan for Cranbourne with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).
Best Bets
Jazz King (Race 5 no. 4) $1.80 ($100 Win) – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy is flying at the moment winning at his last six starts. His effort last start to sit outside the very talented Metro Mike and run past him was enormous. He will either lead or sit outside the leader again tonight and he should be adding another win to his impressive streak.
Eliseos Falcon (Race 10 no.6) $2.50 ($50 Win) – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy will
appreciate the rise to the middle distance of tonight’s event as he is a real
stayer. Expect him to work up and sit outside the leader and run his opposition
into the ground.
Best Value
Fairest One Youare (Race 4 no.2) $16 ($50 Place) – Click here to bet on this horse nowI think that this mare is a good chance to cross the one drawn to her inside at the start. She will then probably hand up to SHAKE IT MAMA (3) and from that spot she looks a great chance of finishing amongst the placings.
Hezfullarunning (Race 8 no.7) $10 ($25 Each Way) – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has been
firing recently notching up two strong on pace wins from his last three starts.
I expect him to press forward at the start and follow over likely leader Walky
Talky and the $10 represents good value in an open race.
The Quads (x4) – Click here to bet on this horse now
2,3,7/ 4/ 8/ 1,4 $50
gets 833.33%2,3,7/ 4/ 2,7/ 1,4 $30 gets 250%
2,3,7/ 9,10/ 8/ 1,4 $12.50 gets 104%
2,3,7/ 9,10/ 2,7/ 1,4 $7.50 gets 31.25%
Star Trialler
Cold Sister (Race 6 No.2) (2190m/2:01.2 – 60.0secs/ 5m x 9m/ Sheza Wildcard 2nd) – Click here to bet on this horse now
This is the other headline squaregaiter for the Aiken camp and in a mainly pacing trial she has cleared out from her rivals in the straight.
Despite running a slightly slower time and being driven out
more than her stablemate (My High Expectations) two trials earlier, she was
still impressive.
She is in a top notch race and may need the conditioning run
but she is a mammoth place hope and can be followed this preparation.
Tabcorp
Park Melton Trainer Talk – David Aiken
Best
Chance
“Catch
Your Breath has been getting in our way so with him not there he gets his
chance.
“Catch
Your Breath came out and beat Smoken Up in the Popular Alm Sprint so it’s proof
that we’ve been racing well.
“I’d
say he will keep rolling forward from the wide barrier but I’ll just leave that
up to Nathan (Jack, driver).”
“He’s going really
good and he didn’t get a clear crack at them last Sunday so he is racing really
well. He drops back with the claim which is always a big help as well.”
“It’s
just the start of her prep but we are really happy with where she is at. It’s a
short race but the others are racing really well and they have a few runs under
their belt whereas we will be an improver I think.
“She’s
a free-for-all class trotter now so there are a lot of races on for her and
hopefully she will get to the Great Southern Star like last year.”
“He’s
had a couple of standing start races where he played up but he hasn’t had a lot
of luck since he has been here.
“We
always liked him at home but it’s a hard class and he dropped right back to the
M0-1 which definitely helped.
“He’s
no slouch and he’s actually been sent down to eventually run in the claimers,
he’s just a really nice old horse.”
Race 1
Lilla (2) and Fergus Mactavish (5) are
probably the best beginners off the front line so they should fight out the
early ascendancy with Fergus Mactavish (5) most likely to seize control.
He went for an all-the-way victory last start and may try the same trick again
or hand up in transit. Either way Lite Jagermeister (7) should roll
forward in search of the lead or the breeze with Royal Deviate (4) also
likely to be put into the race at some point. Big Zee (10) & Conflict
Of Interest (13) look the most dangerous late closers from the back.
Race 2
There is some OK speed off the front row here but Makemcry
Maori (11) looks a massive hope of crossing the lot from his extreme front
line draw if John Caldow really fires him off the arm. Just Call Me Earl (3)
is another who can roll forward early but he’ll be looking for some cover
as he races best with a sit while Theywannacallmesue (10) and Monsieur
Deville (11) are both tough enough to work forward mid-race or come with
one sustained run and still figure in the finish tonight.
Race 3
Most of the front row runners here have some early toe but Aftermidnight
Sam (3) and Giveusagrin (4) looks most likely to out-speed their
rivals at the start. If Giveusagrin (4) can find the front he may look
to hold it over the short course although there should be some mid-race
pressure from fellow class runners Tara Toplady (7) and particularly Regal
Knight (6) who looks most likely to face the breeze in transit. The others
will all be racing for luck and will need plenty of it to figure.
Race 4
Miss Precious Mach (1), Fairest One Youare (2) and Shake
It Mama (3) all of good gate speed, especially Fairest One You are (2) who
looks a great chance of finding the early lead before handing over to Shake
It Mama (3) pretty early on. If that scenario prevails then Bettor Give
It (6) should just keep rolling forward in search of the breeze while the
other class runner Broadways Best (7) may be jagged back early and come
with one run late. Most of the rest, with the exception of Born Again Sassy
(8) are sit-and-sprint types who can only figure late if the breaks all go
their way.
Race 5
They will BLISTER early here with Illawong Kath (2),
Artoc (3) and Jazz King (4) all capable of beginning quickly and Because
I Can (7) among the fastest starters in Victoria on his day and capable of
crossing the lot if Zac Phillips so desires. Regardless of what happens early
on Jazz King (4) should now have the intimidation factor to bully his
way to the mid-race lead while Wartime Sweetheart (9) and The Phantom
(10) look the most likely beneficiaries of any serious speed battle in the
early stages.
Race 6
Cold Sister (2) and Kasyanov (5) should both
push forward with intent after the start here with the former horse likely to
hold her rivals wide for as long as she so desires. That should afford
sit-sprint specialist Brief Glance (10) his favoured peg-line run while Earl
Of Mot (6) should just cruise forward in search of his preferred spot
outside the leader. Tender Don (7) is a grinding type who should get out
and running with a long, sustained surge three wide on the track while ambush
artist I See Icy Earl (4) and the incredibly versatile Kyvalley Blur
(8) will both be dropping on their rivals when it matters in the lane.
Race 7
This race looks something of a Speed Map special with Sals
Mo (4) almost certain to find the front, Empty Envelope (1) equally
likely to hold his back and Hugo Play (7) also a short-priced favourite
to find the breeze in transit. If that scenario prevails then Narra
Operative (9) may enjoy a cosy peg-line trip in Kerryn Manning opts to hold
her spot heading into the first turn while Stirling Point (6) and Alchemy
(13) are the other class runners who’ll be rattling home late.
Race 8
Mister Desirable (5) & Walky Talky (6) are
almost certainly the quickest beginners off the front line here and if both of
their drivers opt to head forward then they should be fighting out the early
lead tonight. There are a few here capable of rolling forward in search of the
chair including Badewitz (3), Hezfullarunning (7) and Metrofromelle
(10) while Shifty Shivas (4) and The Kingston Flyer (8) will
both be hoping for a genuine mid-race tempo if they’re to blouse their rivals
at the business end.
Race 9
Despite the small field there could be some fireworks early
here with Jaydens Castle (3) capable of flying the machine on his day
and Mister Grizzly (6) one of Victoria’s quickest beginners despite his
advancing years. The most likely scenario should see Mister Grizzly (6) find
the front with Washmepockets (5) occupying what has become his
traditional role in the breeze and Smudge Bromac (7) likely to jag back
early and come with one run late. The rest will need some luck but Givitaname
(1) can be dangerous with a cosy peg-line trip.
Race 10
This
is another race where they will FLY early doors, particularly as Blackwarrior
(1) and Woodlea Beau (2) have both shown the capacity to really run
off the arm. If Woodlea Beau (2) can accelerate through and find the
front then he’ll have to contend with some mid-race pressure from Eliseos
Falcon (6) while all of the rest will be close enough if good enough in
this very small field.
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