Friday, November 1, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday @ Melton

Adam Hamilton's Preview

The Game Plan for Melton - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
In a couple of simple words: I’m keen. Tonight’s programme is jam packed w/ attractive betting propositions and while the Money Races should be the cornerstone of our night we’ve also got Best Bets, A Best Value Bet, A Best Roughie and some Quads to keep us involved tight throughout the evening so if you’re looking to get or grow a bank for Derby Day tomorrow then follow up the Game Plans and hope like hell Kyvalley Blur gets the chocolates!

Best Bets/ All-Up ($50)
Lite Jagermeister (Race 1 no. 7) $2Click here to bet on this horse now
The scratching of Just Live Life here has been crucial in me including this former Kiwi mare as one of my Best Bets. Simply put, I think it’s a huge advantage to draw wide on the front line in PBD races because it gives you a wonderful chance to push forward early and stay in front of your major rivals. I also think this mare is somewhat untapped and will only get better under Adam Kelly’s care.

Jazz King (Race 5 no. 4) $1.80  Click here to bet on this horse now
Anyone who’s been following the sport in recent weeks will know this guy is on fire at the minute with six wins in succession and his most recent win over Metro Mike had to be seen to be believed. With his racing style the bubble can burst at some stage but there’s no reason it will be here and with even luck he should make it seven straight tonight.

Kyvalley Blur (Race 6 no. 8) $1.80  Click here to bet on this horse now
Without doubt this is my BEST bet of the programme. A boom horse for some time now, this bloke finally jagged a monster scalp when leading throughout to vanquish Elegant Image in the R C Freestone Trotters Cup and given he’s facing a handy but not outstanding list of rivals here I think he can lob anywhere in transit and still prove too classy when it matters.

Best Value ($10 x $20)
Empty Envelope (Race 7 no. 1) $8.50Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy is not my top tip tonight but based on his effort three starts back when drawing this alley, kicking through to hold the op early and battling on to runs second behind Catch Your Breath after handing up in transit, I think he can certainly fill a hole at least tonight. He was also better than he looked in his heat last weekend so if you’re getting a price make sure you get involved.

Best Roughie ($5 x $25)
Stylish Jasper (Race 4 no. 5) $21/$5 TAB Fixed Odds  Click here to bet on this horse now
The TAB bookies must have missed this mare rattling home to roll Shake It Mama (3) last week or otherwise there’s no excuse that mare to be $2.10 and ours to be $21. I’m not saying she’ll win, in fact she’s only my fourth tip in the race and always needs a HEAP of luck to feature but I marked her at $8.50 so at $21 and $5 the place she’s well worth a speculative lash for mine.

The Money Races
Race 3 ($80 Flexi First 4’s)Click here to bet on this race now
Essentially, this looks a three-horse race between Giveusagrin (4), Regal Knight (6) and Tara Toplady (7). I’m tipping they will totally dominate and given Regal Knight (6) is the best horse engaged he should probably win or finish second at very worst.

6/ 4,7/ 4,7/ 1,2,5,8. $40 gets 500%
6/ 4,7/ 2,8/ 1,2,4,5,7,8. $16 gets 100%
4,7/ 6/ 4,7/ 1,2,5,8. $16 gets 200%
4,7/ 6/ 2,8/ 1,2,4,5,7,8. $8 gets 50%

Race 6 ($80 Flexi First 4’s)Click here to bet on this race now
Much of our night will rely on Kyvalley Blur (8) getting the chocolates but I’m happy to have it that way. As mentioned many times, he should be winning from anywhere in transit here while four other hopes should be fighting out the placings.

8/ 1,2,4,7/ 1,2,4,7/ 1,2,4,6,7. $72 gets 200%
8/ 1,2,4,7/ 1,2,4,7/ 3,5. $8 gets 33.33%

Race 7 ($80 First 4's)Click here to bet on this race now
Despite his last stride defeat in a heat of this final last weekend I think Sals Mo (4) is definitely the horse to beat here and given he should find the front soon after the start he should finish no worse than second even if they drill him all the way. Basing out wagers around that notion I think we can make some significant coin.

4/ 2,6,7,9,13/ 2,6,7,9,13/ 2,6,7,9,10,13. $60 gets 100%
6,7,13/ 4/ 2,6,7,9,13/ 2,6,7,9,10,13. $20 gets 41.67%

The Quads (x4)Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
3,6,7/ 4/ 8/ 1,4,6,7,13. $60 gets 400%
3,6,7/ 2,7,9,10/ 8/ 1,4,6,7,13. $30 gets 50%
1,2,5,8/ 4/ 8/ 1,4,6,7,13. $10 gets 50%
The Game Plan for Cranbourne with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).
Best Bets
Jazz King (Race 5 no. 4) $1.80 ($100 Win)Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy is flying at the moment winning at his last six starts. His effort last start to sit outside the very talented Metro Mike and run past him was enormous. He will either lead or sit outside the leader again tonight and he should be adding another win to his impressive streak.

Eliseos Falcon (Race 10 no.6) $2.50 ($50 Win)Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy will appreciate the rise to the middle distance of tonight’s event as he is a real stayer. Expect him to work up and sit outside the leader and run his opposition into the ground. 

Best Value
Fairest One Youare (Race 4 no.2) $16 ($50 Place)Click here to bet on this horse now
I think that this mare is a good chance to cross the one drawn to her inside at the start. She will then probably hand up to SHAKE IT MAMA (3) and from that spot she looks a great chance of finishing amongst the placings.

Hezfullarunning (Race 8 no.7) $10 ($25 Each Way)Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has been firing recently notching up two strong on pace wins from his last three starts. I expect him to press forward at the start and follow over likely leader Walky Talky and the $10 represents good value in an open race.

The Quads (x4)Click here to bet on this horse now
2,3,7/ 4/ 8/ 1,4 $50 gets 833.33%
2,3,7/ 4/ 2,7/ 1,4 $30 gets 250%
2,3,7/ 9,10/ 8/ 1,4 $12.50 gets 104%
2,3,7/ 9,10/ 2,7/ 1,4 $7.50 gets 31.25%
Star Trialler
Cold Sister (Race 6 No.2) (2190m/2:01.2 – 60.0secs/ 5m x 9m/ Sheza Wildcard 2nd)Click here to bet on this horse now
This is the other headline squaregaiter for the Aiken camp and in a mainly pacing trial she has cleared out from her rivals in the straight.

Despite running a slightly slower time and being driven out more than her stablemate (My High Expectations) two trials earlier, she was still impressive.

She is in a top notch race and may need the conditioning run but she is a mammoth place hope and can be followed this preparation.

Tabcorp Park Melton Trainer Talk – David Aiken
Best Chance
Smudge Bromac (Race 9 no.7) Click here to bet on this horse now
“Catch Your Breath has been getting in our way so with him not there he gets his chance.
“Catch Your Breath came out and beat Smoken Up in the Popular Alm Sprint so it’s proof that we’ve been racing well.
“I’d say he will keep rolling forward from the wide barrier but I’ll just leave that up to Nathan (Jack, driver).”
Wartime Sweetheart (Race 5 no.9) Click here to bet on this horse now
 “He’s going really good and he didn’t get a clear crack at them last Sunday so he is racing really well. He drops back with the claim which is always a big help as well.”
Cold Sister (Race 6 no.2) Click here to bet on this horse now
“It’s just the start of her prep but we are really happy with where she is at. It’s a short race but the others are racing really well and they have a few runs under their belt whereas we will be an improver I think.
“She’s a free-for-all class trotter now so there are a lot of races on for her and hopefully she will get to the Great Southern Star like last year.”
Stirling Point (Race 7 no.6) Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s had a couple of standing start races where he played up but he hasn’t had a lot of luck since he has been here.
“We always liked him at home but it’s a hard class and he dropped right back to the M0-1 which definitely helped.
“He’s no slouch and he’s actually been sent down to eventually run in the claimers, he’s just a really nice old horse.”
Speed Maps

Race 1
Lilla (2) and Fergus Mactavish (5) are probably the best beginners off the front line so they should fight out the early ascendancy with Fergus Mactavish (5) most likely to seize control. He went for an all-the-way victory last start and may try the same trick again or hand up in transit. Either way Lite Jagermeister (7) should roll forward in search of the lead or the breeze with Royal Deviate (4) also likely to be put into the race at some point. Big Zee (10) & Conflict Of Interest (13) look the most dangerous late closers from the back.

Race 2
There is some OK speed off the front row here but Makemcry Maori (11) looks a massive hope of crossing the lot from his extreme front line draw if John Caldow really fires him off the arm. Just Call Me Earl (3) is another who can roll forward early but he’ll be looking for some cover as he races best with a sit while Theywannacallmesue (10) and Monsieur Deville (11) are both tough enough to work forward mid-race or come with one sustained run and still figure in the finish tonight.

Race 3
Most of the front row runners here have some early toe but Aftermidnight Sam (3) and Giveusagrin (4) looks most likely to out-speed their rivals at the start. If Giveusagrin (4) can find the front he may look to hold it over the short course although there should be some mid-race pressure from fellow class runners Tara Toplady (7) and particularly Regal Knight (6) who looks most likely to face the breeze in transit. The others will all be racing for luck and will need plenty of it to figure.

Race 4
Miss Precious Mach (1), Fairest One Youare (2) and Shake It Mama (3) all of good gate speed, especially Fairest One You are (2) who looks a great chance of finding the early lead before handing over to Shake It Mama (3) pretty early on. If that scenario prevails then Bettor Give It (6) should just keep rolling forward in search of the breeze while the other class runner Broadways Best (7) may be jagged back early and come with one run late. Most of the rest, with the exception of Born Again Sassy (8) are sit-and-sprint types who can only figure late if the breaks all go their way.

Race 5
They will BLISTER early here with Illawong Kath (2), Artoc (3) and Jazz King (4) all capable of beginning quickly and Because I Can (7) among the fastest starters in Victoria on his day and capable of crossing the lot if Zac Phillips so desires. Regardless of what happens early on Jazz King (4) should now have the intimidation factor to bully his way to the mid-race lead while Wartime Sweetheart (9) and The Phantom (10) look the most likely beneficiaries of any serious speed battle in the early stages.

Race 6
Cold Sister (2) and Kasyanov (5) should both push forward with intent after the start here with the former horse likely to hold her rivals wide for as long as she so desires. That should afford sit-sprint specialist Brief Glance (10) his favoured peg-line run while Earl Of Mot (6) should just cruise forward in search of his preferred spot outside the leader. Tender Don (7) is a grinding type who should get out and running with a long, sustained surge three wide on the track while ambush artist I See Icy Earl (4) and the incredibly versatile Kyvalley Blur (8) will both be dropping on their rivals when it matters in the lane.

Race 7
This race looks something of a Speed Map special with Sals Mo (4) almost certain to find the front, Empty Envelope (1) equally likely to hold his back and Hugo Play (7) also a short-priced favourite to find the breeze in transit. If that scenario prevails then Narra Operative (9) may enjoy a cosy peg-line trip in Kerryn Manning opts to hold her spot heading into the first turn while Stirling Point (6) and Alchemy (13) are the other class runners who’ll be rattling home late.

Race 8
Mister Desirable (5) & Walky Talky (6) are almost certainly the quickest beginners off the front line here and if both of their drivers opt to head forward then they should be fighting out the early lead tonight. There are a few here capable of rolling forward in search of the chair including Badewitz (3), Hezfullarunning (7) and Metrofromelle (10) while Shifty Shivas (4) and The Kingston Flyer (8) will both be hoping for a genuine mid-race tempo if they’re to blouse their rivals at the business end.

Race 9
Despite the small field there could be some fireworks early here with Jaydens Castle (3) capable of flying the machine on his day and Mister Grizzly (6) one of Victoria’s quickest beginners despite his advancing years. The most likely scenario should see Mister Grizzly (6) find the front with Washmepockets (5) occupying what has become his traditional role in the breeze and Smudge Bromac (7) likely to jag back early and come with one run late. The rest will need some luck but Givitaname (1) can be dangerous with a cosy peg-line trip.

Race 10
This is another race where they will FLY early doors, particularly as Blackwarrior (1) and Woodlea Beau (2) have both shown the capacity to really run off the arm. If Woodlea Beau (2) can accelerate through and find the front then he’ll have to contend with some mid-race pressure from Eliseos Falcon (6) while all of the rest will be close enough if good enough in this very small field.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.