Monday, July 7, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Yarra Valley

The Game Plan for Yarra Valley – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)

Best Value ($25 each way)

Four Smart Aces (Race 3 No.4) $6

This guy has to take on Game We Play (1) and while that guy has shown serious ability, he hasn’t shown any gate speed to date. He may well have it but that has to be a small question mark and Four Smart Aces (4) hasn’t had a lot go his way recently, ending up well back two starts ago before struggling for clear room late last time in a similar race.  Going back four starts he ran a nice third at Melton so if he shows his best in the small field, he should be right amongst it late.

Jetshawjoe (Race 8 No.5) $6.50

If you ignored this fella’s latest effort he would know doubt start around $2.50 here. And while we can’t ignore it totally, I’m willing to write it off as an anomaly where he lead and we well beaten by Mister Douglas (2) and co. Previous to that he ran fourth to Eliminator and Hellovanite which is probably a cut above this claiming grade and earlier in his campaign he did defeat Wipem Dry in a similar race.

The Money Race

Race 1 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)

This looks a nice race to play the exotics through with Upanatom (7) a pretty promising horse on the way up for Amanda Grieve. He has had three runs in Australia for three impressive victories and he does have good gate speed and a nice finish on him so even at the short odds we can anchor him with Dominic John (6) the obvious danger having worked his way into peak form in his last couple of starts. From there we can play wider and hope for a split.

7/6/1,2,5,8,9. $25 gets 500%

7/2,5,9/1,2,5,6,8,9. $15 gets 100%

Quaddie (x4 worth $100)

3/5/11/5,6,7,8,11,12. $40 gets 666.67%

2,5,6,8/5/11/5,6,7,8,11,12. $24 gets 100%

3/1,4,7/11/5,6,7,8,11,12. $18 gets 100%

3/5/6,7,9/5,6,7,8,11,12.  $18 gets 100%

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