Friday, July 11, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It seems like forever since I saddled up for a monster metropolitan Game Plan so it’s a wonderful feeling to be back on the proverbial horse. Despite the fact that winners don’t look too hard to come by tonight, finding the best way to make some folding isn’t necessarily all that easy and I’ve opted to spread the love rather than committing to one or two races as a result.

Best Bets/All-Up ($70)
Bettor Rock On (Race 2 no. 5) $1.50
Not much really needs to be said here. This Kiwi recruit has looked like a potential open-class commodity ever since arriving on our shores and he should handle his rivals here tonight with consummate ease.

Almost El Eagle (Race 6 no. 2) $1.60
This bloke can be a little tough to follow at times as he does need a certain type of run but from the beaut draw tonight expect him to cross over early, take a trail in transit and prove too nippy when then straighten up for home.

Ginger Bliss (Race 8 no. 6) $1.90
I’ll always love this horse after what he’s done for me over the years so I can get get a little rose-coloured-glasses with him but on face value he should work over to the lead and prove a class above his rivals here tonight. There may be a few heart flutters if they try to hold him out but I’m willing to accept that little element of risk.

Best Value ($10 x $30)
Salute The Wind (Race 1 no. 8) $7
The theory here is pretty simple, This guy loves a soft trip, should get the best kind of cosy journey if he follows through behind likely favourite Paris Pepperell (1) and at reasonable Each Way odds is worth a 1x3 tilt.

Gumdrops (Race 7 no. 7) $8 TAB Fixed Odds
Unfortunately those reading Good Form today have already missed out on the $12 TAB offered early in Fixed Odds betting for this feature race but $8 is still probably good enough. The simple fact of the matter is that this mare is ALWAYS underrated due to her diminutive stature and if you’d never seen here and only took her on her record she’d be a $5 or $6 at best. Also, while I think Frith (3) will probably win this race, she is a at silly odds of $1.35 w/ TAB as she hasn’t got a great record out of her age and sex and really faces a big step up in grade tonight.

The Money Races
Race 2 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)
As previously mentioned I think Bettor Rock On (5) will cruise home here at pretty short odds and if Tandias Bromac (10) gets any sort of run into the race she’ll finish second or third. Those facts are the cornerstone of this wager which may well deliver a pretty handy profit.

5/ 10/ 1,2,4,8. $40 gets 1000%
5/ 1,2,4,8/ 10. $10 gets 250%

Race 4 (Flexi Trifectas for $60)
This is a bit of a dinky little bet, but I think it’s one worth having. There are four big guns engaged here and on face value, they really should fight things out but the speed map, which should see Mister Gunsen (2) in front, may complicate matters and allow something at pretty big odd to poke its way into third place and substantially boost Trifecta dividends.

1,3,6 & 9. $36 gets 100%
1,3,6,9/ 1,3,6,9/ 2,4,5,8. $24 gets 50%

Race 6 (Flexi Trifectas for $70)
Almost El Eagle (2) should really be too good here regardless of whether he leads or trails but if he does take a sit it’s likely to be behind Highview Conall (6). If that scenario plays out they will fight out the race and even if it doesn’t I suspect the two best horses engaged will still both feature on the dais.

2/ 6/ 1,8,9. $45 gets 1500%
2/ 6/ 3,10. $10 gets 500%
2/ 1,8,9/ 6. $15 gets 500%

The EARLY Quad (x4 for $120)
1,9/ 5/ 1,3/ 1,3,6,9. $44 gets 275%
1,9/ 5/ 2,8,11,12,13/ 1,3,6,9. $40 gets 100%
8,10/ 5/ 1,3/ 1,3,6,9. $16 gets 100%
8,10/ 5/ 2,8,11,12,13/ 1,3,6,9. $20 gets 50%

The Game Plan for Melton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)

Best Bets ($30 win)

Teo Enteo (Race 5 No.10) $5
Not only did this guy have an outstanding preparation in NSW last time, he has brought that form back to Victoria with a really solid second behind Keayang Cullen first-up before running fourth to the same horse in the Melton City Council sprint last week. Not a lot worked out for him there but I like the way he made ground through his third quarter out wide and with a better run in transit he is one of the two class runners here and looks overs.

Ginger Bliss (Race 8 No.6) $1.90

After almost causing a boil over when taking on Lennytheshark first up in a heat of the Vicbred Super Series, I thought his efforts in the Semi-Final and Final were both more than serviceable and given he returns to the front row in a much easier race, I can see him skating off the arm to find the front and put an end to the contest from there.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)

Highview Conall (Race 6 No.6) $5.50

If you were just backing this guy to win every start you might be a little disappointed with a couple of his recent efforts however he is more than consistent and rarely finishes out of a placing. With Almost El Eagle (2) the absolute class of the race, I’m still convinced this guy is the second best horse in the event so if things work out early he can easily reproduce his last start win.

The Money Races

Race 1 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)

Paris Pepperell (1) is an honest little mare that drops in grade from having to take on Spidergirl and from the pole I can see her holding the top which is a massive advantage here. Enjoy A Coldie (5) is racing at the peak of his powers right now and while he had a soft run last time, I can see him being competitive again along with last week’s unlucky runner Glenferrie Dreamer (9) who is drawn the running line and looks the other key chance. I’m going to play four trifecta’s here with Senitas Success (3) and Rostevarren (10) the most notable dangers to run a place before playing wider for third with Posimistic (2) who should be fitter, Military Precision (7) and Salute The Wind (8) who can enjoy a lovely trail.

Boxed 1,5,9. $24 gets 400%

1,5,9/1,5,9/3,10. $12 gets 100%

1,5,9/3,10/1,5,9. $8 gets 75%

1,5,9/1,5,9/2,7,8. $6 gets 33.33%

Race 9 ($55 worth of Flexi First Four’s)

Both Our Twentyten (5) and One Over Da Moon (6) are two outstanding Kiwi trotters and while there is four clear chances in this race, I’m willing to single those two out in a couple of first fours which may not make us a motza, but could turn a handy profit.

5/3,4,6,7/3,4,6,7/3,4,6,7. $24 gets 100%

6/3,4,5,7/3,4,5,7/3,4,5,7. $16 gets 66.66%

Quaddies (x4 worth $100)

3,7,10,11/2,6/3/6. $24 gets 300%

3,7,10,11/2,6/2,5,6,7,9,10,11/6. $32 gets 50%

1,2,8,9/2,6/3/6. $16 gets 200%

1,2,8,9/2,6/2,5,6,7,9,10,11/6. $28 gets 50%


To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Quarter – Washmepockets: 27.11secs
Fastest Last Half – Composed: 54.94secs
Fastest Last Mile – Guaranteed: 1:54.02

Speed Maps

Race 1
Who Leads?
Paris Pepperell (1) is probably as quick as any beginner drawn off the front line and should hold the early advantage although Illawong Magic (4) and Enjoy A Coldie (5) may both have a look at the start. Senitas Success (3) is having his fist start from the mobile so his gate speed is entirely unknown.
Where will the pressure come from?
Unsure. In fact, with no natural enforcer engaged there looks to be precious little pressure in this race and over the 1720m trip that could mean leader/peg-line domination tonight.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
As mentioned above, there will need to be at least some early/mid-race pressure to bring the backmarkers into play but if there is then Glenferrie Dreamer (9) & Rostevarren (10) look the likely party crashers.

Race 2
Who Leads?
This race harbours a very fast front line with Suspicious Behavia (1), Essbee Doubleyou (2), Amazing Kano (4) and Bettor Rock On (5) all capable of rocketing off the arm but the real battle should be between Suspicious Behavia (1) and Bettor Rock On (5).
Where will the pressure come from?
If Bettor Rock On (2) finds the front there will be very limited pressure but if he does not, he’ll be making his rivals honest from outside the speed.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Im Noddy (8) has been racing well of late and could sizzle home off an ice-cold peg-line trip but Tandias Bromac (10) looks most dangerous of the sit-sprint brigade if things pan out to plan for her.

Race 3
Who Leads?
There are no brilliant beginners drawn off the front line here so expect all of Killara Lightning (1), Mulgrave (2) & Mister McKinnon (3) to make some play for the early ascendancy with Killara Lightning (1) most likely to hold his rivals wide.
Where will the pressure come from?
This is another race without any obvious enforcers engaged but if Mulgrave (2) fails to find the lead expect him to sit parked throughout the middle-distance trip.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
There are plenty, headlined by classy but poorly drawn trio Athols Last Safari (11), Blazing Orion (12) & Bettor Than Best (13) along with the nicely drawn if limited The Storm Chief (8).

Race 4
Who Leads?
Mister Gunsen (2) is arguably the fastest-starting squaregaiter racing in this state and if Paul Grech wants the lead here it really should be is.
Where will the pressure come from?
With a potentially vulnerable trotter set to hold the lead there may be a few rivals wanting to go up and test him out but Vics Cheval (6) is the most established ‘chair’ horse engaged and should work its way to the bullying role but sit quietly once she gets there.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Thanesan (1) could be left in a vulnerable position from the draw but if he gets the breaks he’ll be sizzling home late along with noted and in-form sit sprinter Brief Glance (9) off the second line.

Race 5
Who Leads?
Could not say with any genuine confidence but the fact that Lance Justice has opted to steer Hugo Play (2) ahead of Toulouse Lautrec (1) & Alchemy (5) when all three are swift beginners may be a good guide to what will happen early on.
Where will the pressure come from?
Asoka (3) only knows one way and will definitely ensure this race is run at a reasonably genuine tempo.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
There look to be any number of dangerous late closers engaged here, as you would expect in a high class PBD affair. Stablemates COMPOSED (7) & COLD MAJOR (11) represent those most likely to get on their bike a fair way out from home while blistering sit-sprinters MAGICAL TELF (9) & TEO ENTEO (10) can hop on a three-wide trail and blast past their rivals if the pace is solid enough throughout.

Race 6
Who Leads?
The start will be interesting here as Almost El Eagle (2) probably has the speed to lead and hold the top if John Caldow so desires but he very often settles for a trail in his races which would probably come from Highview Conall (6) if Nathan Jack got aggressive at the start. Jaxon Fella (7) can also begin quickly but would be unlikely to get the lead here in his current form.
Where will the pressure come from?
This is a field essentially populated by sit-sprinters so don’t expect too many fireworks once they settle in their roles.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
They’ll all need a lot of luck to cause an upset here but Lights And Music (1), Crusader Acey (8) & Scruffy Major (9) all have the turn of foot required to prove dangerous if the cards fall their way.

Race 7
Who Leads?
Riviera Kiss (1) and The Good Times (2) are both solid beginners but Frith (3) is grease lightning off the arm and should be in front within 100m of the start.
Where will the pressure come from?
These mares-only races have traditionally been very moderately run affairs since the retirement of Make Mine Cullen so don’t expect them to break any records here but Steam Washed (5) is strong enough to sit parked and apply some mid-race pressure and Baby Bling (10) is also unlikely to sit at the rear and wait for too long to make her finishing run.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Gumdrops (7) has at least as much point-to-point speed as any Australian mare of recent times so she obviously looms as the most threatening sit-sprinter but there are plenty who can figure late if Frith (3) runs them along including The Good Times (2), Beauty Secret (9) and Broadways Best (11).

Race 8
Who Leads?
Exciteusinthecity (4) and Machin Out (5) can both really fly the mobile arm on their day but tonight they’ll probably be vying for the early lead merely to hand up behind Ginger Bliss (6) before they’ve gone too far.
Where will the pressure come from?
There’s a small hope that Ginger Bliss (6) won’t get the top, in which case he’ll be left to carry the can outside the speed but if he does reach the lead there’ll be very little pressure here at all.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Graybuck (1) will have a real battle on his hands not to get shuffled three or four back the pegs early on but if he settles close enough his turn of speed will be a factor when it matters while Our Eastwood Cullen (9) has been racing well in Claiming grade and may join in ominously despite the second line draw.

Race 9
Who Leads?
For a small field this race should have a pretty interesting beginning. Daenerys Targaryen (3) and Spidergrace (7) are almost certainly the two quickest beginners engaged but if the former horse finds the front first she may well hand over to highly rated stablemate Our Twentyten (5). If Spidergrace (7) spears across them (less likely) he’ll likely hold the top.
Where will the pressure come from?
One Over Da Moon (6) is a very tough customer who won’t be letting whichever horse leads get an easy run.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
The main hopes have already been mentioned and will likely occupy the first four spots in running so don’t expect something to come from last and win.

Race 10
Who Leads?
Very few of these have standing start experience but Naked Majesty (5) is quick away from the mobile and may transfer that speed to the tapes?
Where will the pressure come from?
Again, it’s hard to tell. My Arya (8) has generally raced handy without playing enforcer in NZ but may be happy to sit parked here in what may be considered vastly inferior company.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?

Black Valley (2) will probably be handy anyway but he has been an improver at almost every one of his starts and can knock this lot over if he settles close enough.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.