Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($50 All-Up)
Melita Bromac (Race 2 No.4) $1.50
This girl is probably too short to have a straight out wager on but in saying that, I think she can give us a good boost through a 2-leg all up. She has been taking on the absolute cream of the 3YO filly crop and every single time she has taken a little step back in grade, she has thrashed her rivals. That was the case last start with a brilliant win at Geelong so I’m expecting her to fire to the front here and give nothing else a chance.

Mojo Major (Race 4 No.7) $2.10
This fella may well have been defeated as an odds-on pop last time but don’t let that deter you. He was beaten only by Glenferrie Blade last time, who not only had the sit on his back mid-race, but also looks pretty handy himself. They gapped the rest of their rivals so the form should stack up well and even from the outside barrier, he looks the horse to beat and one of the best of the day.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
The System Black (Race 7 No.9) $8.50
This filly had to work pretty hard midrace to find the top last time and while she did drop out there, I’m willing to put a line on that run and go on her previous form which included a third behind My Bella Starr in a Vicbred Super series heat. She was also a good winner in a similar race to this five starts back when hitting the line hard at this track so at the odds, she looks a decent each way play today.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $20 place)
Courageous Kiwi (Race 3 No.3) $17
This guy drew outside Maywyns Storm (5) last time and wasn’t really asked to cross him at the start but he does have good early toe and I would be shocked if he wasn’t first to the pegs here. From that position he should enjoy a lovely run whether he leads or hands up. First up in Victoria he has little luck in between horses and last time he was forced to breeze so that run can be forgiven and while we won’t be breaking the bank, he is worth a punt.

The Money Races
Race 7 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)
Crazy Dave (1) is in rare form and despite there being a fair bit of early speed engaged here, I can see him holding a forward enough position in the run to have every chance late and while this is a little rise in grade, he is going terrifically well at the moment. Eye Like Candy (5) and Discrimination (8) to a lesser extent look the most serious threats so we will play the following three trifectas with the aim of snagging a decent dividend.

1/5/2,3,8. $20 gets 666.67%
1/8/2,3,5. $12 gets 400%
5,8/1/2,3,5,8. $8 gets 133%

Quaddies (x3 worth $110)
7/1,4/1,5,8/4,6,7,9. $50 gets 208.33%
7/3,5,7/1,5,8/4,6,7,9. $36 gets 100%
2,5,6,9/1,4/1,5,8/4,6,7,9. $24 gets 25%

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