Thursday, July 10, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Hamilton

The Game Plan for Hamilton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Hamilton is one of Victoria’s fastest and fairest tracks so I’m usually pretty happy to punt here but it has to be said that today’s meeting is a very tricky one & my confidence levels are not what one would describe as bullish. Nevertheless, there do look to be some nice, speculative ways to try and turn a profit in the GP below, probably headlined by the Money Race and an Each Way wager on Jackabeems at what might be a pretty handy quote.

Best Value ($30 Win)

Forced Out (Race 4 no. 1) $5.50 & Peaces Of You (Race 4 no. 5) $7
I’ve coupled these two in together for the obvious reason that they’re in the same race and surprisingly to me, both have been marked at pretty juicy prices. There’s no doubt that this is an incredibly even affair so I’m happy to have something on Forced Out (1) on the basis that he never gets much luck in his races and should be afforded every option from the ideal draw & Peaces Of You (5) because she’s fourth up from a break, the best performed pacer in the race and well and truly capable of leading these around if Kerryn Manning lets go of her at the start.

Jilliby Jagger (Race 6 no. 5) $4.40
This wager is based purely on intuition, but there’s a good deal of room for intuition on a meeting like today. Put very simply, I don’t think there are any stars engaged here and a Glen Craven-trained debutante with trial winning form should be in an excellent position to kick its carer off with success.

Best Roughie ($15 Each Way)

Jackabeems (Race 7 no. 2) $12
The fast class feature of the day harbours a number of winning hopes but I’ve always had a lot of time for the above pacer and it must be noted he’s had little or no luck so far this campaign. Take him on his best form and potential and he’s almost certainly the one to beat here so if anything like $12 is on offer snap it up Each Way and if he comes up much shorter have a little something straight out.

The Money Race - Race 3
I like this race. That’s because, on exposed form, What A Sheila (2) would lead and win with a minimum of fuss, so we’ve got the raced runners sorted out. Then we just need to add into the melting pot a Marg lee-trained debutante with strong trial form named More Than Modern (6) who on face value should probably blow this lot away. So long as they don’t get into any early/mid-race battles those two should draw away from their rivals and then I’m assuming pegs will reign supreme with either Never Let Me Go (1) or Sign No More (8) likely to join them on the dais.

6/ 2/ 1,8/ 1,3,5,7,8,10. $50 gets 500%
2/ 6/ 1,8/ 1,3,5,7,8,10. $10 gets 100%
6/ 1,8/ 2/ 1,3,5,7,8,10. $10 gets 100%

The Quads (x4 for $150)
6,7/ 5,6,7,8,9,10/ 2,4,9/ 3,9. $72 gets 100%
6,7/ 5,6,7,8,9,10/ 1,3,6,7/ 3,9. $32 gets 33.33%
6,7/ 5,6,7,8,9,10/ 2,4,9/ 4,5,6. $27 gets 25%
6,7/ 5,6,7,8,9,10/ 1,3,6,7/ 4,5,6. $19 gets 13.19%


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