Friday, July 18, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday @ Maryborough

The Game Plan for Maryborough – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)

Best Bets ($30 win)

Steal A Sixpence (Race 8 No.9) $2.20

This guy didn’t have a lot of luck in his Vicbred Super Series Final and while he most certainly wouldn’t haven challenge Vincennes and Blitzthemcalder for the win, he would have finished a lot closer than the margin suggests. His form previously was quite solid, running The Boss Man to just 5 metres four starts back. If he turns up at his absolute best here, I find it hard to see any of his rivals outpointing him.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)

Conchs Critter (Race 4 No.10) $7

This is by no means the easiest race on an already tough program however I do think the $7 represents good overs. He has begun swiftly from the stand at most of his recent starts so even with some traffic around him, I’m expecting him to ping to the lead early doors and from there he should run a nice race based on consistency alone.

Waikare Sun (Race 6 No.4) $6

I know blanket finishes don’t often inspire punters however Waikare Sun (4) is really getting back to somewhere near his best form and the effort to run home hard for fifth last time was creditable. He steps cleanly from the stand and while we again won’t be breaking the bank on the second value bet, it’s a race of limited chances.

The Money Races

Race 2 ($50 worth of flexi trifectas)

Action Kosmos (10) is a very nice trotter on the way up and while he was beaten last time, he did have excuses and really should make amends here. In saying that, Aldebaran Seismic (1) has the barrier advantage and while a little inexperienced, should lob somewhere in the trifecta so we will play the following four trifectas.

10/1/3,6,7,8,9. $20 gets 400%

10/3,6,7,8,9/1. $10 gets 200%

1/10/3,6,7,8,9 $10 gets 200%

10/3,6,7,8,9/3,6,7,8,9. $10 gets 50%

Race 5 ($36 worth of flexi trifectas)

Both Glenferrie Typhoon (4) and Desert Spur (9) do look to have a class edge on their rivals however Enjoy A Coldie (8) isn’t too far off them so I’ve constructed three trifectas in order to make some money from the multiples here

4/8,9/1,2,8,9. $18 gets 300%

9/4,8/1,2,4,8. $12 gets 200%

4/1,2/1,2,8,9 $6 gets 100%

Quaddies (x4 worth $104)

4,9/1,8/10/3,6,9. $48 gets 400%

4,9/4,6,7,9,10/10/3,6,9. $30 gets 100%

4,9/1,8/1,2,5,6,11,12/3,6,9. $16 gets 22.22%

4,9/4,6,7,9,10/1,2,5,6,11,12/3,6,9. $10 gets 5.55%

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