Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night @ Kilmore

The Game Plan for Kilmore – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Off to Kilmore we go tonight and with a lack of odds-on favourites, I think we can play wide through quaddies and get some pennies with one or two blowouts while there appears three decent plays for those win punters out there and a money race to kick things along early.

Best Bets ($40 Win)
Hes Kinky (Race 4 No.6) $1.80
If you are looking for an absolute best bet on the program then it’s probably this one.  Hes Kinky (6) is an Emma Stewart-trained pacer that isn’t far away from city class and he proved that last time when just touched off by Discrimination and Shakti Bromac. The smaller field should help here and it looks a real drop in class.

Field Major (Race 5 No.4) $4
This guy got strung up last time but ran home well when clear at Ballarat and before that he was huge in defeat behind Melita Bromac in the Warragul Guineas. It’s fair to say he is right back to his best so he should go close today.

Best Value ($30 win)
Tiroroa Tom (Race 1 No.1) $3.80
This guy has the pole and comes here in terrific form given he is off the front. He has run placings behind Desert Spur, Dizzyinterest and Queens Vacation at his last three so if he steps clean then he must be a massive hope in this drop in grade.

The Money Race
Race 2 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
This looks a pretty skinny race and I’m willing to bank on Smooth Grin (3) as the horse to beat having his first start in Victoria. He won a relatively even race last time but doesn’t strike a much tougher race and can work forward off the arm. Hens Party (2) might be the value play for our multi’s while Ocean Bay (7) looks a leading trifectas hope first-up. We are going with the below bets.

3/2/7. $20 gets 2000%
3/2/1,4. $15 gets 750%
3/7/2. $10 gets 1000%
3/1,4/2. $5 gets 250%

Quaddies (x4 worth $100)
4,5/5,9/3,6,9/4,5,6. $36 gets 100%
4,5/5,9/1,2,5,8/4,5,6. $25 gets 52.08%
4,5/1,3/3,6,9/4,5,6. $25 gets 69.44%
1,3,7,9,10/5,9/3,6,9/4,5,6. $24 gets 26.66%



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