Thursday, May 1, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Charlton

The Game Plan for Charlton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
This week’s big dance may well be at Tabcorp Park Melton tomorrow night with the Victoria Oaks and APG final for the juvenile boys however after turning a small profit at Mildura last night I’m keen to butter up in the state’s north for what looks a terrific betting card. The meeting is laden with punting prospects so we’ve downed our stake and spread the money races wide while throwing in a best value selection and a Quaddie split four ways. As always remember that for those playing along at home stick to a budget and the advantage of flexi betting means you can take the same bets just for a smaller percentage if you are that way inclined.

Best Value ($30 win)
Tooram Lad (Race 1 no.3) $6
This guy’s form doesn’t necessarily read like a world beater but there are a couple of keys to take notice of. He may have been beaten into 20-metre seventh last time but he was exposed pretty early from behind the leader when that horse took off down the back and he only faded in the last 100 metres with the winner gapping the rest. From the good draw he can hopefully find the top early and be very hard to toss from that position.

The Money Races
Race 2 ($30 worth of Flexi First 4’s)
Despite being defeated last time by 20 metres, Tezz Khora (9) is clearly the class runner in this race and the form from his last start has been franked by Vee Rock who won handily again last night. He only needs a decent run through from the second row and he will be in the hunt early while Barriettas Bliss (4), Black Jasmin (6) and Raw Steel (7) look the major dangers and Kandidate (2) can’t be discounted for a place. We will switch it around in our saver trifecta just in case Tezz Khora (9) gets beaten into second.

9/4,6,7/2,4,6,7/2,4,6,7. $20 gets 111.11%
4,6,7/9/2,4,6,7/2,4,6,7. $10 gets 55.55%

Race 4 ($30 worth of flexi trifectas)
This looks another terrific betting race and being a heat into final affair we have a good line on how these horses are going to match up. The class differential looks fairly large too so despite the horror barriers, expect Sinead (11), who should be fitter, and Patchitupbaby (12) to dominate late while any of Attack On Command (3), Tennaya (5) or Union Force (9) can run in the quinella without surprising. Outside of those however the chances drop away quickly so I’d be shocked if we didn’t land some result with the below bets.

11,12/3,5,9,11,12/3,5,9,11,12. $20 gets 83.33%
3,5,9/11,12/3,5,9,11,12. $10 gets 55.55%

Race 6 ($30 worth of flexi trifectas)
The second leg of the Quaddie will hopefully be fruitful in more than one way and I’m keen to attack two trifectas here. Firstly Aldebaran Macha (5) will need to win for us but after showing plenty of promise in the Sunraysia and knocking off his rivals from an awkward draw on Mildura Cup night, expect him to roll forward here and be too classy however the real trick comes with us needing outsider Shakchloe (4) to run a place first-up from a break. She has won two trials in preparation for this and has the talent to figure while most of the others can figure if things pan out so we will go with the bets below.

5/4/2,3,7,8. $20 gets 500%
5/2,3,7,8/4. $10 gets $250

Race 8 ($30 worth of flexi trifectas)
This is another heat into final race and again the qualifiers were conducted on this very track on April 21 so it’s the perfect guide to their chances. Again, the class differential between the top few hopes and the rest is pretty severe so despite the poor barriers we can count on either Mind The Wire (9) or Cardon Merger (11) to monster their rivals while having a healthy respect for the likely favourite The Kimura (1) as well as fellow heat winner Hayabusa Flyer (12). In our second trifecta we will play a fraction wider and hope for a little split in the placings.

9,11/1,9,11,12/1,9,11,12. $20 gets 166.66%
9,11/1,9,11,12/3,4,5. $10 gets 55.55%

Quaddies (x4 for $100)
8,10/4,5/4,9/1,9,11,12. $32 gets 100%
1,6,9/4,5/4,9/1,9,11,12. $24 gets 50%
8,10/4,5/1,3,7,10/1,9,11,12. $24 gets 37.5%
1,6,9/4,5/1,3,7,10/1,9,11,12. $20 gets 20.83%

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