Friday, May 23, 2014

Good Form Preview - Queen Of The Pacific Night @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton– with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
It’s Group 1 Queen Of The Pacific night and I couldn’t be more excited to get into what looks a cracking betting program. I’ve singled out a best in the first who should be able to control the race while searching wider for some value a little later in the night. For punters who like to get exotic we’ve got three money races plus the $10k Early Quaddie Jackpot and the normal Quaddie to round us out.

Best Bet ($50 win)
Pretty Sunday (Race 1 No.3) $1.80 – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
This mare has had just one start in Australia when she worked forward off the arm to eventually trail Spidergirl turning for home at Coolamon and she did look some small threat before galloping. She has shown good gate speed in New Zealand and did run behind Sovereignty two starts ago and was a winner prior so all things being equal I think she can cruise across and outclass them tonight.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Machin Out (Race 5 No.1) $12 – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
This little neddy has transformed into a consistent machine and his penchant for lifting to the next level could well see him land the money tonight. He has to take on Chilli Palmer (11) who is the obvious threat but with the barrier draw advantage, and the likelihood that he can hold his rivals wide early before Amajorjo (7) burns across, means he should be in the first two or three in running and after a dynamic finish last week in blistering time, he looks the clear second pick and can certainly win if things fall his way.

Vansumic (Race 7 No.10) $15 TAB Fixed Odds – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
It’s not often you see Ladyship Mile winners go out a $15 chance just  a handful starts later and I’m convinced that’s overs. She finished powerfully last time after working mid-race and in a standing start trial at Menangle on April 29 she stood quiet as a church mouse and stepped sensibly so can be counted upon to get away cleanly. From there if she enjoys any sort of luck in running I can see her finishing off into a place at the very least and possibly even winning.

Clancys Fobwatch (Race 8 No.3) $10 – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
Back to the front row I’m keen to have something on this guy at nice odds. There is little doubt Jaccka Murphy (4) and Easy Lightning (5) will probably get across him early however he is pretty versatile and a winner of 12 from 35 so you can be guaranteed he will put in. Last time out he ran home well for fourth in a pretty slick mile rate behind Gotta Go Yanky and he just went down in a fighting finish. If he has some luck tonight then anything like the $10 should look overs at some stage in running.

The Money Races
Race 4 ($45 worth of Flexi Trifectas) – Click Here to bet on this race now.
While I do think Lovelist (4) is the horse to beat. I’m very keen on the three next best chances to run the trifecta and our biggest split might come of the favourite is beaten. Ebonyallstarzzz (1) finished like a jet last time as did Niki No No (9) while Licinia (6) should be on pace and in the hunt for most of the sprint trip.

4/1,6,9/1,6,9. $24 gets 400%
1,6,9/4/1,6,9. $12 gets 200%
4/1,6,9/2,5,10. $9 gets 100%

Race 6 ($30 worth of Flexi Trifectas) – Click Here to bet on this race now.
In a race of well exposed form, Smoken Up (6) is the absolute class and still in terrific form in the twilight of his career. He simply has to be the horse to beat still while Five Star Anvil (4) is quickly becoming almost his equal and Wartime Sweetheart (5) could be ready to explode with some match fitness under his belt. I think those three will run the trifecta so let’s play the following combinations.

6/4/5. $15 gets 1500%
6/5/4. $10 gets 1000%
4/6/5. $5 gets 500%

Race 10 ($30 worth of Flexi Trifectas) – Click Here to bet on this race now.
In a race almost certainly limited to three chances, I think Shes An Image (2) can either lead and be hard to beat, or take a trail on Cold Sister (1) and still be the one to roll. Waikare Patricia (6) isn’t far away from her peak so she must be considered the logical horse to fill the other placings.

2/1/6. $15 gets 1500%
2/6/1. $10 gets 1000%
1/2/6. $5 gets 500%

The EARLY Quaddie JACKPOT (worth $70) – Click Here to bet on the Early Quaddie now.
3/1,2,5,10/1,4,5,6,7,8/4. $24 gets 100%
3/1,2,5,10/1,4,5,6,7,8/1,6,9. $15 gets 20.83%
1,4,6,8,10/1,2,5,10/1,4,5,6,7,8/4. $16 gets 13.33%
1,4,6,8,10/1,2,5,10/1,4,5,6,7,8/1,6,9. $15 gets 4.16%

Quaddie (x4 worth $145) – Click Here to bet on the Quaddie now.
1,11/4,5,6/6,10,12/3,6,8. $49.50 gets 91.66%
1,11/4,5,6/5,9,11,13/3,6,8. $36 gets 50%
2,7,10/4,5,6/6,10,12/3,6,8. $27 gets 33.33%
2,7,10/4,5,6/5,9,11,13/3,6,8. $32.50 gets 30%

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Machin Out: 1:51.58

Fastest Last Half – Machin Out: 55.06secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Highview Connall: 27.60secs

Sectional Superstar
Steam Washed (Race 7 no.6) $4 TAB Fixed Odds – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
Not only did this mare do it tough, parking before being shuffled back and then again pulling three-wide solo, she almost unimaginably ran the fastest last-half of the Angelique Club Cup.

That race is the best guide to this and given there was no better run in the race sectionally, she is hard to go past provided she steps cleanly tonight.

Speed Maps & Comment

Race 1

Salute The Wind (1) is back to the mobile conditions but hasn’t shown a lot of gate speed so don’t be surprised to see him double-crossed early. Enjoy A Coldie (2) may well be first to the pegs but Pretty Sunday (3) can roll forward and take the top early on. Expect Basil Knight (6) to keep on rolling from his awkward alley and likely find the chair mid-race. Idle Suntime (7) has the capabilities to do it tough and don’t be surprised if Steal A Sixpence (8) looks for an out early on.

Race 2

Tezz Khora (5) has terrific gate speed and should look for an early lead with No Tomorrow (1) kicking up to hold the leaders back. The pressure may come from out wide with One Wise Man (7) capable of rolling forward.

Race 3

Our Eastwood Cullen (4) isn’t a natural leader but should again have the speed to cross; from there he has the option of holding the top or handing over to an appropriate rival. Expect Eliminator (5) to push out early and take a forward position while Thats Mister Ali (6) is in a more suitable race so may go forward from his wide draw. Wipem Dry (1) is likely to receive a cold pegline run regardless with Astronaut (8) having to make an early decision about whether to pop off the inside or wait for the gaps late.

Race 4

Licinia (6) is the obvious speed off the front and should push forward and although she showed no speed on debut, expect Ebonyallstarzzz (1) to be wound right up to hold a position behind the leader early. One of either Lovelist (4) or Starzzz Of Icon (5) can float forward early and be in a striking position. Niki No No (9) has had a soft run at her first two starts but may have to do it a bit tougher here.

Race 5

Machin Out (1) is likely to have sufficient speed to hold up behind early speedster Amajorjo (7), Chilli Palmer (11) is likely to be saved for one run while Asoka (10) can make a mid-race move like he has most recently.

Race 6

Five Star Anvil (4) had the desired speed to lead a similar race last time before being crossed by Smoken Up (6), that may pan out again or Five Star Anvil (4) could possibly try to hold the lead. Either way they will be the first couple in running. With Wartime Sweetheart (5) likely to be saved for one run at them late.

Race 7

This is almost impossible to map however rate Steam Washed (6) the most likely to be first to tackle either Laterron (3) or Carpenters Daughter (4)  and therefore the one that can find the front of the big guns. Expect plenty of mid-race moves with Forever Gold (12) most likely to hold the chair if and when she does lob that position.

Race 8

Jaccka Murphy (4) can be dynamic off the arm so can find the front in the early stages with Amazing Kano (1) capable of kicking up to hold his back. Flaming Hero (8) may be forced into getting off early while Easy Lightning (5) or Forty Seven Flash (11) are most likely to find the chair.

Race 9

Musical Delight (2) does have the required speed to lead however may choose to sit on Eye Like Candy (5) who can be first to have a look. Glenferrie Shuffle (3) does have some tactical speed but probably goes best when driven with a sit. Here And Now (4) can also fly out and may prove a problem at the start if she gets a flyer.

Race 10

Shes An Image (2) may or may not have the speed to cross Cold Sister (1) but if she doesn’t she has the option of sitting on that mare in the small field. Go Ahead Makemyday (5) can play enforcer mid-race.

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