Friday, May 16, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton– with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
It’s finally arrived! Friday night at Tabcorp Park Melton is here and I’m bursting to have a punt with an outstanding program on offer. After a tidy little profit on last week’s Metropolitan meeting I’ve singled out two best bets tonight along with three value horses that should all run well, two money races, an 8-way Early Quad to try and snare some jackpot funds and finally the normal Quaddie so strap yourself in because here we go. As always remember to set a limit and stick to it especially given flexi betting means you can take the below bets,  just for a lesser amount.

Best Bets ($40 win)
Forever Gold (Race 7 No.13) $1.90 TAB Fixed Odds – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
This talented Queensland mare had her first ever Victorian start last week and it was a thoroughly impressive win.  She is a G1 Queensland Oaks winner that has gone on since, winning a heat of the Inter Dominion last preparation. The extra distance here suits her so provided she holds her form, she is going to be very hard to roll.

Brunelleschi (Race 8 No.11) $2.20 TAB Fixed Odds – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
While on the subject of horses in the zone, Brunelleschi (11) is another that well and truly fits that bill. A winner of the FFA on Great Southern Star night, he was just touched off at his two following starts but hit back hard with a dominant win last time. His main rival Sunset Invasion (1) will pose some threat but we are going to bank on class getting him over the line tonight.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Johnny Quid (Race 1 No.5) $5.50 – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
Not only does this guy have a little bit of gate speed, he has been a touch unlucky at his last two. This is the exact sort of race he loves to dominate so with Washmepockets (4) going forward inside him, they will likely be the first couple in running and at the better value I think this guy will run in the trifecta for sure and possibly even win.

Duke Of The Moment (Race 2 No.12) $5.50 – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
I’m not sure we’ll get the $5.50 marked in today’s paper but this little trotter was very good behind Aleppo Midas last time. He was only collared late in the G3 Coulter Crown and given he can begin quickly from the tapes, I think he will be up challenging the leaders fairly early and he has the class to win, or atleast place, in this race.

Jadahson (Race 5 No.1) $8 TAB Fixed Odds – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
The third of our best value runners is Jadahson (1) and there are a few very simple reasons why. He can begin well from the tapes which is most important and he has a very good record this season in the marathon Country Cups under almost identical conditions to this. Last time he never really got into the race but dominated from the front two starts ago so if he can find the lead, expect him to run one mighty race.

Best Roughie ($20 place)
Maastricht (Race 7 No.3) $4.80 (Place) Tab Fixed Odds  Click Here to bet on this horse now.
While we won’t be going all out here with one of our best in the same race, I’m confident if the speed map plays out to plan here then Maastricht (4) can nab an early lead off Courageousnquick (2) and then have the option of trying to lead all the way, or taking a cold sit and using the sprint lane. Either way she is talented enough to run a place and could even blow them out so let’s have a little place bet on her to try and build our bank.

The Money Races
Race 4 ($42 worth of Flexi Trifectas) – Click Here to bet on this race now.
This looks a terrific betting race for us to get stuck into because Mister Wickham (6) was breathtaking first up in blistering time while Show Me The Bling (2) managed to stick on for second in that very same race on debut. Given both are proven under extreme pressure, I think they are the pair to beat tonight however any of Im The Boss (1), Be Good Juddy (3), Morior Invictus (8), Midnitedelite (10) and Valens (11) could run a place so we will play the following combinations.

6/2/1,3,4,8,10,11. $24 gets 400%
2/6/1,3,4,8,10,11. $12 gets 200%
6/1,3,4,8,10,11/2. $6 gets 100%

Race 9 ($32.50 worth of Flexi Trifectas) – Click Here to bet on this race now.
We may not necessarily get rich of this race however there are really only three chances and with Quick Draft (3) quite clearly the horse to roll, we can play My Bella Star (5) and Berisari (4) to fill the placings for different amounts as listed below.

3/5/4. $20.50 gets 2050%
3/4/5. $12 gets 1200%

The EARLY Quaddie JACKPOT (The Octo-Quad worth $94.50) – Click Here to bet on the Early Quaddie now.
4,5,8/4,6,12/3/2,6. $27 gets 150%
4,5,8/4,6,12/3/3,4. $13.50 gets 75%
4,5,8/4,6,12/4/2,6. $13.50 gets 75%
4,5,8/4,6,12/4/3,4. $9 gets 50%
3,6,10,11/4,6,12/3/2,6. $12 gets 50%
3,6,10,11/4,6,12/3/3,4. $6 gets 25%
3,6,10,11/4,6,12/4/2,6. $6 gets 25%
3,6,10,11/4,6,12/4/3,4. $3 gets 12.5%

Quaddie (x4 worth $156) – Click Here to bet on the Quaddie now.
1,6,7/1/3,4,12,13/1,5,11. $48 gets 150%
1,6,7/2,4,7,8/3,4,12,13/1,5,11. $36 gets 25%
2,9,10/1/3,4,12,13/1,5,11. $36 gets 100%
2,9,10/2,4,7,8/3,4,12,13/1,5,11. $36 gets 25%

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Ballarat last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Tandias Bromac: 1:54.23

Fastest Last Half – Wartime Sweetheart: 54.80secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Wartime Sweetheart: 26.33secs

Sectional Superstar
Wartime Sweetheart (Race 5 no.9) $4.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
We all know this guy went to another level splitting Smoken Up and Caribbean Blaster last time in before going on to an Inter Dominion Grand Final but what he did first up on the clock was brilliant.

He rushed home in the quickest last half and last quarter of the night and if he brings that to his race tonight, then he looks one of the horses to beat.

Speed Maps

Race 1
The scratching of Born Again Sassy (2) has changed the complexion of this race with Washmepockets (4) and Johnny Quid (5) both quick enough away and probably going to vie for the early lead. While the speed map has Exciteusinthecity (6) going back, don’t be surprised to see him spear out now that the likely early leader is out of the race.

Race 2
Invasive (6) didn’t go two starts ago but otherwise is relatively safe behind the tapes and should find the front in the early stages if he steps well. Triumphant Monarch (4) should also be in the early mix while Duke Of The Moment (12) can begin brilliantly and be up outside them shortly after the start if things pan out for him. Expect Stephen John (10) to put himself in the race at some stage along with Just Call Me Earl (7).

Race 3
All things considered it would be a bit of a shock if Lennytheshark (3) doesn’t find the front in the early stages. He has the speed to lead but tactics on Flaming Flutter (4) might be interesting. Sapphire Swayze (7) has the class to be in the trifecta no matter where he lobs but may roll forward and take the position outside of the leader early.

Race 4
Ricimer (4) has pretty good speed and should find himself in front shortly after the start with Be Good Juddy (3) the likely chair horse. If Show Me The Bling (2) doesn’t get across Im The Boss (1) early then that brings the latter right into the race with a cushy run.

Race 5

It’s always tricky to map these stand start races but Jadahson (1) is generally away quickly enough and can lead. If that’s the case Composed (2) may well drop onto his back for a soft run while Hilltop Hustler (6) will probably on the move early.

Race 6
Aldebaran Macha (2) probably has the speed – and form – to just get across Tandias Bromac (1) at the start but in saying that she’s is pretty quick when they use her off the arm. Discrimination (3) is also quick out so don’t be surprised to see him cross the lot of them however after the early burn, don’t expect a lot of mid-race pressure.

Race 7
Again the Sunraysia horse might find the top here with Maastricht (3) possessing early speed and given Courageousnquick (2) is almost certainly going to be first to the pegs and likes to hand-up Steam Washed (4) looks the only other real contender for the early honours. Born Again Sassy (7) can fly the arm but the draw may take that out of the equation while Forever Gold (13) will probably be looking for the chair mid-race.

Race 8
Sunset Invasion (1) has the draw to hold his rivals wide early and while Paris Pepperell (5) may have some sort of look for the front, the second favourite may want to ward off any attempt there. Brunelleschi (11) can either work around them to find the death seat, or simply come with one run but either way, there won’t be any loafing.

Race 9
Quick Draft (3) and My Bella Star (5) are the early speed here but I fancy the former to just hold out any early challenge. If that’s the case Berisari (4) can enjoy a smother 1 by 1 while don’t be shocked if Madison Louise (2) lobs the position behind the leader.

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