Friday, May 9, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton– with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
What a wonderful sight the Tabcorp Park Melton card is for tonight’s meeting. We have a couple of top-notch races along with an undercard that screams class. Stepping in to the main role for my first Metro meeting I’m pretty confident we can have some success off the back of two best bets we are going to back and also couple into an all up while a couple of value runners at good overs along with two money races and the Quaddie split five ways will hopefully carry us into black figures for the program.

Best Bets / All Up Parlay Formula 2 ($120 gets 40 units)
Tandias Bromac (Race 2 no.8) $2.70 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
This mare was a breath away from getting off the inside early in last weekend’s HBV Silver Chalice and had she done that, who knows what might have happened given she showed a blistering turn of foot when clear late. A similar scenario threatens this week however if she can push off at the start, I think it she will be mighty hard to beat at a backable price.

Flaming Flutter (Race 4 no.2) $1.30 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
This guy has been marked very short but deservedly so. He was a Mildura Cup runner-up most recently and prior to that his form included a third behind Chariots Of Fire winner Guaranteed in the Paleface Adios Stakes at Menangle so given he has the barrier to bully his way to the top at some point, he really should cruise home in the straight.

Brunelleschi (Race 6 no.7) $2.50 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
In a race of two I’m happy to side with the foolproof trotter with the advantage of the front row. He was a brave second to Spidergirl in the Uncle Petrika FFA just seven days ago and although Josephine Jones (9) is loaded with talent, she still has a few kinks to iron out whereas this guy is starting to round out his game nicely and should be in the first couple the whole way.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Paris Pepperell (Race 1 no.2) $8.50 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
In a race where I can see Jingling Silver (3) spearing to the early lead, this girl might just be the first there to have a look and even take the front from that mare. In that case, I think she is terrific overs given her form which is highlighted by a strong win from a 20-metre handicap last time around albeit in an easier race.

Five Star Anvil (Race 5 no.6) $12 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
With plenty of speed engaged here this guy is likely to get a lovely run somewhere off the speed and his return to form last time against key rivals Chilli Palmer (4) and Smoken Up (7) was simply stunning. If he repeats anything like that run he can easily come three-wide and crush them in the lane so if we see anything like the $12 in today’s Herald Sun, it’s worth taking.

The Money Races
Race 4 ($40 worth of Flexi First 4’s) - Click Here to bet on this race now.
This race looks ripe for the taking with Mildura Cup runner-up Flaming Flutter (2) drawn to find the top and his key dangers Our Warwick Lad (1) and Weallwantano (7) behind him and outside him. For that reason we are going to play three first fours which will heavily rely upon the exacta going down that way, with the other chances involved for third and fourth.

2/1,7/1,7/4,5,6,8. $20 gets 250%
2/1,7/4,5,6,8/1,7. $12 gets 150%
2/1,7/4,5,6,8/4,5,6,8. $8 gets 33.33%

Race 10 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas) - Click Here to bet on this race now.
This is a classic trot race where Rosemma (2), Bellmac Kody (6) and Queens Vacation (10) should have a little on their rivals. I’m thinking Rosemma (2) can find the front over Monica My Dear (1) early with Bellmac Kody parking. In that scenario I think we can play the following trifectas to get a little bit in the kitty late in the night.

Box 2,6,10. $18 gets 300%
2,6,10/2,6,10/1,3,4,7. $12 gets 50%
2,6,10/1,3,4,7/2,6,10. $10 gets 41.66%

The $10,000 EARLY Quad Jackpot (x1 worth $50 on Races 1-4) - Click Here to bet on the Early Quad now.
2,5,6,7/4,8/2,4,5,6,11/2. $50 gets 125%

Quaddies (x5 worth $150 on Races 5-8) - Click Here to bet on the Quad now.
4,6,7/7,9/2,5,10/3. $67.50 gets 375%
4,6,7/7,9/2,5,10/8. $36 gets 200%
4,6,7/7,9/3,6,7,8,9/3. $22.50 gets 75%
4,6,7/7,9/3,6,7,8,9/8. $15 gets 50%
4,6,7/2,6/2,5,10/3. $9 gets 50%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – David Aiken
Best Chance
Smudge Bromac (Race 3 no.11) $3.20 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
“The recent claimers have been short of fields but tonight we get a full field which makes it a bit harder for him but he’s working really well and we are very happy with him.”

Our Warwick Lad (Race 4 no.1) $5 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
“He just went off the last run but his form before that was good. He has trialled OK and he should get a good run behind Flaming Flutter. I think he is as good as any of the others outside of Flaming Flutter and he should improve provided he makes the final.”

Wartime Sweetheart (Race 5 no.8) $12 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
“He’s three trial backs have been good and we are very happy with him. He should run his honest race, it’s a tricky race with a small field and it’s hard to know if Smoken Up will lead or be outside the leader but he will probably dictate the race.”

Lennytheshark (Race 8 no.3) $1.20 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
“He’s preparation has been really good, the rehab was terrific at Kevin’s (Reisley, owner) farm, he hasn’t taken a backwards step since he has been here and he has the right draw with Sapphire Swayze on the back row. I couldn’t ask for much more first-up.
“He has been off so long he will probably take a couple of runs to get back to his very best but he is just a quality animal. He was up with the better 3YO’s last year and he is probably in another class to a horse like Wartime Sweetheart it’s just about hoping he returns well from the injury.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Ballarat last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Arber: 1:53.16
Fastest Last Half – Inky Cullen: 54.20secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Inky Cullen: 26.46secs

Sectional Superstar
Our Mels Dream (Race 3 no.5) $8.50 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
This guy is terribly consistent and somewhat underrated. He rocketed home in the quickest last half of the trifecta last week (54.64secs) and one of the quickest quarters of the night in 26.63secs. He will need some luck but there is no doubt he will be roaring home again at good odds.

Speed Maps

Race 1

Jingling Silver (3) has good early speed and should cross them to find the pegs first however Paris Pepperell will likely be on the hunt early and can take the top all things being equal. Both Monsieur Deville (4) and Stephen John (6) get off the arm okay and will have decisions to make early about whether to push forward while down in class it’s possible we will see Brief Glance (5) race a little handier. On the proviso that Purplepeopleater (7) is snagged at the start, she will be looking for a three-wide trail up from Stephen John (6) who m ay also elect to take a sit early given the speed underneath him.

Race 2

Magnificent Art (7) is drawn the widest but in a race where Here And Now (5) can fly the arm and be first to the pegs. In saying that, Magnificent Art (7) can fire forward and find the front while a return to form may mean Glenferrie Shuffle (4) chooses to race without cover and make her own luck outside the leader. Tandias Bromac (8) will be looking to get off the pegs early you’d suspect and eventually come three wide with one run over the mile.

Race 3

This is another fairly tricky race to map with Our Eastwood Cullen (4) having a little bit of gate speed and if he shows it tonight he can likely cross them however then he has to decide whether to repel a likely challenge from Toulouse Lautrec (7) or try for an all the way win. Smudge Bromac (11) is down and class and should be coming three-wide at some stage – whether that’s to park or with one run may depend on how the above scenario pans out – while Washmepockets (10) can also make his own luck.

Race 4

Flaming Flutter (2) not only has decent speed off the arm, he has intimidation factor here which means he is almost certain to find the pegs – if not at the start, then with over a lap to go. Our Warwick Lad (1) will be doing everything in his power to kick up and hold out any early challenge from Royal Witness (4) or Easy Lightning (5) who will most likely end up in the running line. If Weallwantano (7) is forced back at the start he can come with a three-wide run solo or try to find a cart in and be right amongst the placegetters.

Race 5

Because I Can (1) has plenty of early speed and, when used, could almost hold any horse in Victoria. Unfortunately for his sake he faces Smoken Up (7) who we know can burn early. In saying that I think there is every chance Because I Can (1) will keep the top which means Wartime Sweetheart (8) is likely to play for luck three-pegs early while Chilli Palmer (4) and Five Star Anvil (6) should enjoy soft runs just off the pace.

Race 6

The obvious speed here looks to be Mister Gunsen (6) who has become known for his dash off the arm so there’s no reason he won’t get across them early however the little trick may be that Lord Liam (2) has shown a little bit of gate speed himself and can cross Loveyougoodboy (1) early doors to make sure he gets a lovely run behind the leader. Brunelleschi (7) is showing toughness along with brilliance now and given he is arguably the best horse engaged, there is no reason he won’t sit parked at some stage while Josephine Jones (9) can come three-wide with one run and outstay them at her best.

Race 7

There are a few different scenarios that can play out here with Baby Bling (2) having shown good speed on occasion when drawing favourably however Beauty Secret (3) can also fly the arm so it’s possible there will be a little war early. Depending on how that pans out Broadways Best (5) may roll forward and look to nab the lead or she might be forced to do it tough and come three-wide or sit in the chair. Forever Gold (10) is the other noted enforcer in the race and may sit parked if Broadways Best (5) doesn’t, or may come with one run three-wide if she does.

Race 8

Lennytheshark (3) has his fair share of speed and given he will likely start odds-on, he should be able to find the front at some stage in running. The key early might be between Classic Icon (1) and Jaccka Murphy (4) with the pair both capable off the gate. Sapphire Swayze (8) is the other runner to watch for and will be looking to get off the pegs early so as to not be planted back in the ruck. Cheap Tint (7), although drawn wide, is probably your chair horse.

Race 9

This isn’t the easiest race to map however Illawong Fantasia (4) flew the arm in a heat of this race and is one of the likely leaders along with Ok To Fly (6) who may chance his arm at the start. Either way Cheshire Cat (1) should enjoy the gun run behind them while Broadway Playboy (6) and Public Persuasion (11) are probably both headed back at the start and will come three-wide together at some stage late.

Race 10

I do like the look of this map with Rosemma (2) possessing plenty of toe when she is pushed and tonight looks the night for that. Monica My Dear herself has great speed and if they dual then expect Canadian Dream (3) to look to drop in for a run three-back which might force Quest Front (8) into the running line initially. Bellmac Kody (6) is the likely chair horse while Queens Vacation (10), Quest Front (8) and Tawonga South (4) comprise a possible three-wide line late.

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