Monday, May 19, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Cobram

The Game Plan for Cobram – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets / All-Up ($40)
Miracle (Race 1 no.2) $1.10
This guy has been marked very short considering this is his first try against the older trotters but I think we may get a fraction better than the $1.10 in today’s Herald Sun and if we can, he looks like a nice early fillip heading into our other best bet today. This guy has been beaten 5 times in his 12 starts and in all bar one of those he was knocked off by Group 1 winners so the form around him is really strong. He won three from three last time in and he has trialled very well on two occasions recently so he should be ready to go.

Marys Little Rose (Race 9 no.3) $1.60
Had to do it tough at her first Victorian start last time but battled on strongly to be beaten just on a neck. This race doesn’t look any easier and drawn in today, there is a good chance she will be first to the pegs and if that’s the case, she should be very hard to roll in the lane.

Best Roughies ($5 win x $15 place)
Egyptian Art (Race 5 no.9) $34
We won’t be going crazy with today’s roughies but I think if we have a little each way we might find a placegetter amongst them at worst. The massive advantage for this guy is that he comes into the spot behind the polemarker with the scratching and given the horse drawn in front of him has pretty good speed, he should be 3 pegs at worst, but possible even behind the leader. He ran a much improved race last time and if things fall his way expect a similar run today.

Boom Boom Hall (Race 7 no.3) $51
This guy might be a winner of just 2 from 52 but he does have ability and even forced his way into a Breeders Crown final last season. Fourth up he showed a return so some semblance of form last time with a nice little third. He does have to take on two very smart horses in Attackamach (7) and Magic Moment Lombo (6) here but I think he is as good a chance as any of the others to run third so provided he lobs a nice place in running I think we might get a result out of him.

Ess Prefontaine (Race 8 no.9) $51
I’ve always liked the way this guy is progressing and although he still doesn’t have much idea what the caper is about, I think he could be ready to turn a corner. He may not have the class to win a race like this just yet but he has a pretty powerful motor when he is let down so any clear running in the lane at all and I will be banking on him to run past more than a few of them and hopefully land a place.

The Money Race
Race 7 ($45 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)
We’ve already mentioned the class that Attackamach (7) and Magic Moment Lombo (6) have on this field. The former is a potential top liner on the comeback trail and has been solid at his first two runs. With race fitness under his belt now he should be near on impossible to hold out with the latter a super talent and ready to run a big race despite the wide alley. For those reasons we will play the below trifectas.

7/6/1,2,3,4,5,8. $24 gets 400%
7/1,2,3,4,5,8/6. $12 gets 200%
7/1,2,3,4,5,8/1,2,3,4,5,8. $9 gets 30%

Quaddies (x3 for $100)
2,3,10/2,3,4,7/6,7/10,11 $48 gets 100%
2,3,10/2,3,4,7/6,7/1,6,7. $36 gets 50%
2,3,10/2,3,4,7/3,4,5,8/10,11. $16 gets 16.66%

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