Adam Hamilton's Tabcorp Park Preview
THE GAME PLANS for Melton
Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
Tonight’s meeting is yet another tricky one at headquarters and I can’t really find a race where I want to play some exotics so instead I’ve come up with some Value Bets, a Quaddie and a decent crack at the Jackpot Big6, which I think will pay anything with the right results. Here’s hoping!
$25,000 JACKPOT BIG6
1,3,10,11/ 1,5,6/ 1,2,4,5,7,8,10/ 1,5,6,10/ 1,2,4,6,8,13/ 3,7,9.
$200 gets you 3.3%
VALUE BETS
It Is Billy (Race 1 no. 9) $6 ($15 win x $35 place)
This bloke is almost guaranteed to end up three-back the pegs and he will need a bit of luck in the straight but likely leader Ourbellabro is a free-runner so I think the field may string out over the final 400m which will enable him to wind up at the right time.
Rapt In A Rainbow (Race 2 no. 5) $3.50 ($15 win x $35 place)
This mare was having her first run for Laura Crossland at Maryborough in a heat of tonight’s final at Maryborough 9 days ago and was most impressive winning from the breeze by a big space and I don’t see why she can’t repeat the dose here.
Pinevale Willpower (Race 6 no. 5) $4 ($15 win x $35 place)
There is no doubt Macca Kelly is the testing material in this race but the back row draw won’t help him and I’m willing to take a punt on this fellow running a big race first up from a break after trialling stylishly at Shepparton recently.
Zanardi (Race 7 no. 8) $10 ($15 win x $35 place)
Now that the tactic change has come through for Alchemy, who will be holding the lead from the pole, I think this bloke has a great each way chance as he shoud do enough to hold up behind the leader and will get his chance via the passing lane in the stretch.
Onedin Hustler (Race 10 no. 2) $12 ($15 win x $35 place)
This isn’t a strong race and at the odds I think this bloke is worthy of a gamble as he is a big chance of spearing to the lead from the ideal draw and will give cheek over the 1720m.
Quaddie
1,5,6/ 1,2,4,5,7,8,10/ 1,5,6,10/ 1,2,4,6,8,13. $100 gets you 19.84%
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Tonight’s Tabcorp Park card is riddled with wide open races where speed, tactics and good old fashioned luck will play a huge role in who gets the prize. Having said that I think there are three horses who really should be winning, a fourth who will make or break our night and four big roughies that look good chances of finishing on the podium at very big odds. Throw in one Money Race and a few Quads and we’ll certainly be well invested in another 12-race card!
Best Bets/All-Up/Formula 2
My plan is to have a Formula 2 – where two of these have to win for $60 or 2000% - and also a $40 all-up, which should yield around $320 if all three get up.
Im Stately (Race 3 no. 7) $2.40 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I have been keen on this bloke taking out tonight’s Tatlow Final since before the heat phase of the series and he did nothing to dull my enthusiasm when arrogantly beating up on his rivals 9 days ago. The second line draw is of little or no concern to him and importantly, his main rival, Miracle (10) has drawn back there w/ him so as long as he stays in gait I’m confident he’ll be getting the prize.
Johnny Quid (Race 4 no. 5) $2.80
The only question mark w/ this guy is that he did not go as well as he has been last start at Ballarat but if you forgive him that run he’s got this race on toast. The key factors for him are that he has the gate speed and intimidation factor to work his way to the front and if he finds the lead it would be a huge shock to see him get rolled. You should know your fate pretty early but I’m keen bullish he’ll get the job done.
Fifth And Broadway (Race 11 no. 5) $1.20
This is the no-brainer of the night. A pretty smart 4YO mare with much better races in her future, she meets a moderate bunch of C1’s tonight and whether she rolls to the top as expected or sits parked outside Chasing Chelsea (1) it would take a below par performance for her to get beaten.
Best Value
Amajorjo (Race 5 no. 9) $17 ($50 Each Way)
If you’re going to have one wager all night, I suggest you have a genuine crack at this bloke on an Each Way basis at odds. The following dot-points will outline just why.
* Wind the clock back to mid-March and he ran sub-1:53 miles two weeks running.
* He thrives over the short course, having won 4 from 8 & placed in another 3 runs.
* Before his first-up ‘failure’ he won a Hamilton trial by 50m.
* His first-up ‘failure’ was not one at all. He was three-wide to the breeze in blistering early numbers and only dropped out late.
*That first-up run was over the unsuitable 2240m trip and punters were so confident he started $1.90.
*There is pace off the front line tonight and he will get conditions to suit.
Fairly compelling case? That’s why I’m unloading on him Each Way at what may be a double-figure price tonight and I genuinely expect him to win.
Best Roughie/Place Bets
Death Defying (Race 2 no. 7) $31 ($5 by $15)
I’ve found two roughies in the Glenferrie Farm Sweetheart Trot Final and there are some obvious reasons why. They are that my top tip Sundons Promise (13) should win but she is a mercurial type who is only a 50/50 chance of staying in gait throughout, while the other ‘big guns’ of the series – Maidstone Miss (1) & Purplepeopleater (12) – were horribly disappointing in their heats & would have to improve markedly to figure in the finish. This girl has drawn poorly again but she was not disgraced in her heat & is certainly worth a place bet at least at the monster odds.
Monica My Dear (Race 2 no. 9) $21 ($5 by $15)
I’ve already outlined above why I like a couple at odd sin this race and this girl gets a guernsey due to her wonderfully consistent recent record, handy trailing draw and top heat run behind Sundons Promise (13) so you can also back her for a place and even have something small for her to win.
Edge Hill (Race 3 no. 12) $31/$6 ($20 PLACE) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I don’t really give this girl much of a winning hope but she is bordering on veteran status for a 2YO trotter and arrives here with all the right formlines, having beaten Im Stately (11) on debut and tested Miracle (10) four starts back at Maryborough. Not much went right in her heat of this series and at $6 a place you’d be silly not to have a little something on.
Shandon Village (Race 6 no. 4) $21 ($5 by $15)
I do have a soft spot for this bloke but he’s also racing in career best form and in an even sort of race he’s certainly worth a 1x3 wager, particularly given the fact he should lob a handy role in transit from the handy front line draw.
Steal A Sixpence (Race 8 no. 5) $41/$6.16 ($20 PLACE) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
A bit like Edge Hill in the Tatlow final, this bloke has been ignored by bookmakers purely because they’ve been consumed by the high profile, big name runners. See below for a little critique & tell me why he should be $41/$6.16
* Fours starts back he lost to Our Dreamlover (6) by 1.6m off level marks racing under unsuitable standing-start conditions. Our Dreamlover (6) is currently $12 w/ TAB.
* Three starts back he convincingly defeated subsequent SA Trotters Derby winner, Glenferrie Dreamer (10) @ Melton. Glenferrie Dreamer (10) is currently $13 w/ TAB.
* Last start he convincingly defeated subsequent NSW Trotters Derby placegetter, Vincennes and tonight he draws to lead or sit handy in the run.
I’m not sure he can win but $6.16 the drum is good enough for me.
The Money Race – Race 11
Pretty simple philosophy here that Fifth And Broadway (5) will be too good & Chasing Chelsea (1) should almost certainly run a drum if she hands up as expected.
5/ 1/ 3,6,8. $60 gets 2000%
5/ 3,6/ 1. $20 gets 1000%
5/ 3,6,/ 3,6,8. $20 gets 500%
Quaddies (x2)
5,6/ 9/ 1,3,4,5,6,7,10/ 1,2,4,8,10,13. $42 gets 50%
5,6/ 1,2,4,5,8,10/ 1,3,4,5,6,7,10/ 1,2,4,8,10,13. $58 gets 11.51%
No Jackpot BIG6 tonight. You’re on your own there!!
