Good Form Super Blog - Super Sunday: The Big Dance

The Game Plans for Super Sunday

The moment that all industry lovers have been waiting for is finally here – Super Sunday w/ its 9 Group 1 finals and its cavalcade of future superstars is about to dawn and while many of the big features look like being one-act affairs one need look no further back than this day 12 months ago to know that things don’t always go to plan! From a punting perspective I’m playing today’s card a little differently to normal given the TAB have promised $25K Pools on every First 4 across the programme and w/ so may shorties straight out place bets really look the go. If you’re not keen on my way of thinking however, you can also follow the lead of Michael Guerin and/or Adam Hamilton who have both thrown their Game Plans in the ring for one of Australasian trotting’s premier cards.

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value ($25 Each Way)

Brunelleschi (Race 3 no. 9) $3.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

Put simply, if this bloke recaptures the form which saw him humble a similar field to this on Vicbred Super Series’ finals night, they won’t see which way he went. He’s also likely to be aided by a very quick front line.

Real Bonus (Race 8 no. 4) $3.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

The first 4000m will be everything here but if she can work to the top and then drop anchor for at least a little while then I’m confident she’ll prove very tough to catch.

Best Roughies ($50 Place)

Rogers Passion (Race 1 no. 1) $3 PLACE TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

This remains my single Best Bet of the day. The equation is simple for her: she thrives on sit-sprint racing, will get the ideal run behind leader and red-hot favourite Frith (3) and simply should not miss the podium as a result.

Magic Franco (Race 9 no. 1) $6 PLACE TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

There are a few more variables with him than Rogers Passion but he’s also paying double the price. His Victorian runs have been better than they appear on paper and if he can hold up behind Bit Of A Legend (5) he’ll almost definitely run a drum, Even if he’s three pegs I’m still happy to be on.

The Money Races

Race 6

There are only two scenarios here. Either Ideal Scott (2) leads and Keayang Steamer (8) follows him through, in which case one of our top two First 4’s will lob – or the fave will get crossed at the start and we’ll be hoping for some value out of our most conservative saver.

2/ 8/ 4,5,9/ 4,5,9. $60 gets 1000%

2/ 5,9/ 8/ 4,5,9. $20 gets 500%

2/ 5,8,9/ 4,5,8,9/ 4,5,8,9. $20 gets 111.11%

Race 7

This is riskier than our last bet but I can’t see Bling It On (1) missing top two and if we’re going to make any money from the race we simply have to play as skinny as we can.

1/ 5,9/ 2,5,8,9,12/ 2,3,4,5,8,9,12. $80 gets 200%

5,9/ 1/ 2,5,8,9,12/ 2,3,4,5,8,9,12. $20 gets 50%

Quaddies

2,3,8,9,11/ 2/ 1/ 1,4,8,10,11. $50 gets 200%

2,3,8,9,11/ 5,8,9/ 1/ 1,4,8,10,11. $22.50 gets 30%

2,3,8,9,11/ 2/ 5,9/ 1,4,8,10,11. $15 gets 30%

2,3,8,9,11/ 5,8,9/ 5,9/ 1,4,8,10,11. $12.50 gets 8.33%

Michael Guerin (@Guerinsports)

The Moral

Ideal Scott (Race 6 no. 2) $1.45 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

The TAB opened this bloke at $2 and I’d still be happy to take $1.50 as I’m very confident he just leads and wins. He has super gate speed and as good as Keayang Steamer is, it will be a shock if he can come off the back of a horse that paced his final half in 53.8-sec last weekend and win.

The Value

Lettucerockthem (Race 7 no. 5) $5.50 TAB Fixed Odds

He is the best performed juvenile pacer in Australia this term and while he disappointed a touch last Saturday the fact that Luke McCarthy has elected to drive him over Bling It On means he could be leading them around. If he does find the top then $6.50 is value as he should not be missing a place.

The Money Race

Race 6 – Breeders Crown Final for 4YO Entires and Geldings

Bit Of A Legend (5) will win barring accidents so the $25,000 guaranteed First 4 pool is worth chasing here. Interestingly the two best hopes of finishing second in Nowitzki (13) and Pachacuti (12) have both drawn the second row while Echeveria (3) and Almost El Eagle (4) are the other key runners.

5/ 12,13/ 3,4,12,13/ 3,4,12,13. $100 gets 833.33%

Quaddies

2,3,6,8,9,11/ 2/ 1,5,9/ 10. $36 gets 200%

2,3,6,8,9,11/ 2/ 1,5,9/ 1,4,7,11. $64 gets 88.89%

Adam Hamilton (@AdamTABSports)

The Moral

Ideal Scott (Race 6 no. 2) $1.45 TAB Fixed Odds

Team McCarthy has been clicking its heels since this budding star came to them a couple of months ago. He could be one of Australasia’s next Grand Circuit heroes and after winning his qualifier in head-spinning sectionals he should lead all the way and take another step toward stardom. 

The Value

Whereibylong (Race 5 no. 9) $3.20 Fixed Odds

Okay, she’s not monster odds, but I think she is a clear top pick in an open Two-Year-Old Fillies final and the $3.20 is inviting. She was a moral beaten when appearing to lock wheel at a crucial stage before rattling home at Ballarat and opposing a moderate field, she’s peaked at the right time.

The Money Race

Race 6 – Breeders Crown Final for 4YO Entires and Geldings

This looks a great race to attack the guaranteed $25,000 First 4 pools offered up by TAB with Ideal Scott (2) the anchor to lead and win . The logical runner-up is Keayang Steamer (8) but Heza Presidente (4), Besotted (5) and Restrepo (9) are your other key runners here for sure.

2/ 8/ 4,5,9/ 4,5,9. $30 gets 500%

2/ 4,5,8/ 4,5,8,9/ 4,5,8,9. $70 gets 388.89%

The Quaddie

2,3,9,11/ 2/ 1,2,5,9,12/ 1,4,7,8,10,11,12. $100 gets 71.43%

Breeders Crown Trainer Talk – David Aiken

Best Chance

Quick Draft (Race 5 no. 11) $6 TAB Fixed Odds

“I think she’s my best winning hope all day. The Sydney filly (Majestic Amy) was good last week but we had something left in the locker and even with the bad draw I’m sure she’ll go very close.”

Others

Spidergirl (Race 4 no. 2) $4.40 TAB Fixed Odds

“She’s had a terrific season already but I think she’s improved a little bit, even since the Vic Trotters Derby. She put in a career best effort last start so wherever she lobs they’ll know she’s in the race.”

Real Bonus (Race 8 no. 4) $3.60 TAB Fixed Odds

“I’m very wary of the Kiwis (Cheer The Lady and Carpenters Daughter) here but I thought she was very brave last weekend in a very fast last half. The first 400m will be crucial to her chances."

Black Bookers

Whereibylong (Race 5 no. 9) $3.30 TAB Fixed Odds

One of last weekend’s genuinely luckless runners, she locked wheels at a crucial stage before exploding home behind Quick Draft at Bray Raceway, Ballarat. The juvenile fillies’ division of this year’s ABC series has been blow wide open and her turn of foot will hold her in great stead.

Shakamond (Race 3 no. 12) $21 TAB Fixed Odds

Lightly raced, untapped and full of equine X Factor this bloke really caught the eye when charging home in the stronger of two ABC heats for Four-Year-Old Trotters last weekend. The draw won’t hurt him as he has no early speed and his long, loping stride will see him charging in the lane.

Speed Maps

Race 1

*This speed map is a representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running at the bell lap.

Speed: IM SMOULDERING (5) is likely to roll up outside the favourite FRITH (3) which means the race should be evenly run until they reach the bell.

Likely Leader: FRITH (3).

Best Closers: ROGERS PASSION (1), DELIGHTFUL CHRISTIAN (8) and SAFEDRA (9).

 

Race 2

*This speed map is a representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running at the bell lap.

Speed: IM STATELY (4) isn’t a horse who likes to sit up when he finds the top, so even if DAENERYS TARGARYEN (1) can’t hold him out off the arm, expect there to be a strong pace throughout.

Likely Leader:  DAENERYS TARGARYEN (1) or IM STATELY (4).

Best Closers: CLAUDYS PRINCESS (7) and ONE OVER DA MOON (12).

Race 3

*This speed map is a representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running at the bell lap.

Speed: If SHES AN IMAGE (4) can speed off the arm and find the top it should be an evenly run race until the pressure goes on from BRUNELLESCHI (9) via a mid-race move or the three-wide line.

Likely Leader: SHES AN IMAGE (4), ZEDALITE (2) or ROSALIE BAY (5).

Best Closers: BRUNELLESCHI (9) and SHAKAMOND (12).

Race 4

*This speed map is a representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running at the bell lap.

Speed: SPIDERGIRL (2) is quick off the arm but there will be no loafing with BLITZTHEMCALDER (6) enjoying a strong trot throughout.

Likely Leader: THE BOSS MAN (1), SPIDERGIRL (2) or BLITZTHEMCALDER (6) can bully his way there after the start.

Best Closers: OUR DREAMLOVER (9), QUITE A MOMENT (10), GLENFERRIE DREAMER (11) and GLENFERRIE TYPHOON (12).

Race 5

*This speed map is a representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running at the bell lap.

Speed: OUR PETITE SOEUR (3) can begin quickly and if LUDA (6) can lob up outside her with the favourite back in the ruck, they may try to pinch a cheap quarter or two in the middle stages.

Likely Leader: OUR PETITE SOEUR (3) or LUDA (6).

Best Closers: MAJESTIC AMY (2), TE AMO BROMAC (8), WHEREIBYLONG (9) and QUICK DRAFT (10).

Race 6

*This speed map is a representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running at the bell lap.

Speed: IDEAL SCOTT (2) is proving to be a speed machine and although he will set a brisk tempo, one cheap early quarter will see him rip home pretty quickly.

Likely Leader: IDEAL SCOTT (2) or HEZA PRESIDENTE (4).

Best Closers: BESOTTED (5), KEAYANG STEAMER (8), RESTREPO (9) and REAL MAGIC (13).

Race 7

*This speed map is a representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running at the bell lap.

Speed: The McCarthy trio hold the key here and whichever out of BLING IT ON (1) or LETTUCEROCKTHEM (5) finds the top should dictate the pace of the race.

Likely Leader: BLING IT ON (1), MAJOR SECRET (3) or LETTUCROCKTHEM (5).

Best Closers: OUR SKY MAJOR (9), OUR MAXIM (12) and MESSINI (4).

Race 8

*This speed map is a representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running at the bell lap.

Speed: REAL BONUS (4) may have to work to find the front however if and when she does she will likely be pressured by the likes of LIGHT IN EVERY DAY (7) and CARPENTERS DAUGHTER (11) before the three-wide train starts.

Likely Leader: REAL BONUS (4), BORN AGAIN SASSY (1) or LIGHT IN EVERY DAY (7).

Best Closers: MAJOR BONUS (8), LOUVRE (6), CHEER THE LADY (10) and LA MACHANE (12).

Race 9

*This speed map is a representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running at the bell lap.

Speed: BIT OF A LEGEND (5) should lead comfortably and there isn’t a lot of expected pressure in the early stages.

Likely Leader: BIT OF A LEGEND (5).

Best Closers: NOWITZKI (13) and PACHACUTI (12).

Race 10

*This speed map is a representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running at the bell lap.

Speed: ON THE RAZZLE (7) is a brilliant beginner who is likely to speed across and not stop running. MELPARK MAESTRO (3) can park up outside him and keep it truly run in the middle stages.

Likely Leader: GIVEUSAGRIN (1) or ON THE RAZZLE (7).

Best Closers: SAAB QUALITY (6), PINEVALE WILLPOWER (11) and DONOSON (2).

Sectionals

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown heats for 4YO’s run at Tabcorp Park Melton on Sunday August 11, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown semi-finals for 2&3YO run at Ballarat on Saturday August 10, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown repechages for 2&3YO trotters run at Maryborough on Thursday August 8, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown repechages for 3YO’s run at Geelong on Thursday August 1, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown repechages for 2YO’s run at Ballarat on Tuesday July 30, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown heats for 3YO colts and geldings run at Kilmore on Thursday July 25, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown heats for 3YO fillies run at Ballarat on Wednesday July 24, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown heats for 2YO colts and geldings run at Bendigo on Tuesday July 23, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown heats for 2YO fillies run at Shepparton on Saturday July 20, simply click here.

Sectional Superstar

Cheer The Lady (Race 8 no.10) – $2.10 TAB Fixed Odds

Not only has Cheer The Lady been well backed for her final, she ran a slashing time in her heat win seven days ago.

The Barry Purdon-trained mare will be shooting for back-to-back Breeders Crown successes and she proved her form by running home in a last mile of almost an entire second better than her nearest rival.

Her last half of 55.73 and last quarter of 27.42 suggest if she can repeat that, she will be flying the flag high for the Kiwi’s.

Stats That Matter

* Incredibly, from six odds-on Breeders Crown favourites to start from barrier one, just two have been successful. This afternoon Ideal Scott will leave from the ace alley as a dominant popular elect.

* Traditionally, the 2YO Colts and Geldings division of the ABC series has proven toughest for punters, with winners averaging the unexpected starting price of $9.59.

* No Breeders Crown winners has ever started from barrier seven or 13. Claudys Princess (7), El Paco (7), Light In Every Day (7) and Nowitzki (13) look best placed to create history today.

* An amazing 41 of 63 ABC champions won their semi-final and no winner has finished further back than fourth at the final qualifying phase.