Friday, August 23, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

Adam Hamilton's Melton Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
If I’m being completely honest, this meeting was one of the hardest  Friday night cards to work out I’ve seen in some time. However it’s also one of the most exciting. Each of the three feature races look terrific betting propositions from an exotic perspective while there are two runners at OK odds I think can win their respective races. To top it all off there’s a very fun Quad here too, so sit back, load up and get some extra folding for the thoroughbreds tomorrow.

Best Value Bets ($50 Win)
Narra Operative (Race 4 no. 10) $3.20 – Click here to bet on this horse now
I could easily be accused of falling in love w/ this horse and to be honest I probably couldn’t deny there’s some truth in the allegation but the only reason I hold him in such high regard is that this campaign at least, he simply doesn’t know when to quit and he’s winning – and running monster races – even when he shouldn’t. Tonight he meets a very even field who pretty much all have some conviction and he simply doesn’t so back him straight out and fall in love like I have.

Exciteusinthecity (Race 8 no. 7) $3.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This is another pacer I have an extraordinary amount o f time for. He has had a wonderful season so far but the best pointer for this race was his win two starts back where he parked outside Im Barney Rubble (who’ll take on the FFA pacers tonight) and put him to the sword in a 55.3sec final half. Tonight, he’ll either find the front or park outside a horse like Fiery Achiever, who is lengths below Im Barney Rubble for ability. I have respect for Donegal Delight (9), Kotare Roland (6) and Stirling Point (4) but just think our bloke will be in the right spot at the right time and prove a class above.

Pinevale Willpower (Race 9 no. 6) $3.20 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This one has more question marks over its head than the other two because he has been struggling from poor draws lately but he draws to lead here over his favoured short course journey and with Thirst Mach scratched I can find neither a genuine enforcer nor a super sit-sprinter that will make his life tough at any stage in transit. As I say, you will have to take on trust but if he’s paying $3 he’s worth a straight out lash.

The Money Races
Race 3 – Click here to bet on this race now
We won’t retire off this Money Race but if Earl Of Mot (7) bullies his way to the mid-race lead as expected then we should get some folding for our other bets and Quads.

7/ 5,6/ 5,6. $20 gets 1000%
7/ 5,6/ 1,2,3,4.$20 gets 250%
5,6/ 7/ 5,6. $5 gets 250%
5,6/ 7/ 1,2,3,4. $5 gets 62.5%

Race 5–  Click here to bet on this race now
This is a terrific race where only race luck should separate Chilli Palmer (1), Gotta Go Yankee (9), Hilltop Hustler (11) and Nowitzki (12). They are all coming from divergent formlines so there’s every chance one may blow the others away but so long as they fight the race pout we’ll be winning here for sure.

1,9,11,12/ 1,9,11,12/ 1,9,11,12,13. $36 gets 100%
1,9,11,12/ 1,9,11,12/ 4,7,8,10. $14 gets 29.17%

Race 7 – Click here to bet on this horse now
I can see some serious early fireworks here with two Lance Justice-trained runners on either side of Melpark Major (3) at the start and most of the big guns drawn poorly on the second line. Because of that fact I’m thinking Bitobliss (13) can sit back, smoke the pipe and use his superior turn of speed to either win or run second at very worst. I’m sticking with the big guns outside of him and hoping for some value on the podium.

13/ 3,10,12/ 3,10,11,12. $27.50 gets 305.56%
3,10,12/ 13/ 3,10,11,12. $13.50 gets 150%
13/ 3,10,12/ 1,9. $6 gets 100%
3,10,12/ 13/ 1,9. $3 gets 50%

The Quads (x4) Click here to bet on tonight's Quaddie now
I’m taking a very aggressive approach here by labelling Narra Operative in the first leg and hoping for value from there on in. If the thought of going out in the first leg of the Quad makes you sick to the stomach then play a little wider but I’m worried that there’ll be no value if we do.

10/ 1,9,11,12/ 1,9,10,12/ 3,12,13. $72 gets 150%
10/ 1,9,11,12/ 2,3,4,6,7,8/ 3,12,13. $18 gets 25%
10/ 1,9,11,12/ 1,9,10,12/ 10,11. $8 gets 25%
10/ 1,9,11,12/ 2,3,4,6,7,8/ 10,11. $2 gets 4.17%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Alan Tubbs
Best Chance
Melpark Major (Race 7 no. 3) $3.70 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s obviously drawn better than the other two (Smoken Up and Bitobliss) and when you get that advantage you absolutely go forward and try to use it. He’s not 100 percent wound up but good horses like him don’t need much work and his first few runs in a campaign almost have to be his best because it doesn’t get any easier. It’s just amazing after all that he’s been through that we’re still going around and he’ll acquit himself well as he always does.”

Bettor Believe It (Race 6 no. 9) $5 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I really thought we’d run first or second last week but things didn’t quite go to plan and she actually did a good job running fourth. She’s not the most talented horse going around but she’s a very good soldier and if I had three or four more of her I wouldn’t be complaining. I’ve got no doubt she’s going to win an MO at some stage and there’s no reason why this won’t be the one.”

Donegal Delight (Race 8 no. 9) $5.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“It took me a little while to get a handle on this mare but I understand her better now. Basically, the longer you can keen her comfortable (in the run) the better she’ll finish the race off. I plan to target all the best mares’ races next season so why she’ll need the breaks to go her way as she always does she’s definitely good enough to win her race as well.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Hectorjayjay: 27.84secs
Fastest Last Quarter –  Have A Bender: 54.92secs
Fastest Last Mile –  Lombo Toscannini: 1:55.57

Sectional Superstar
Have A Bender (Race 7 no.11) – $10 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Despite again drawing a poor barrier, this guy is low flying if his numbers are anything to go by.

He was clearly the quickest last mile in his M1-3 win last weekend, he ripped home the fastest last half of the night and he kept charging to record the quickest last quarter of the race.

He will need some luck stepping up in grade, but if the speed is on and he gets the right cart into the race, he is every chance to place at juicy odds.

Speed Maps

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